SEC Picks Week 13

What matters from last week is that I was right on Florida winning outright and cashed a 4.5-1 money line bet. That's awesome. Any day you can do that is the win. The other picks washed out so I gained 4.5 units. Not a bad day's work on to the this Thanksgiving rivalry weekend!

BETTING PICKS:

LSU v. Texas A&M +6.5 - I like LSU -6.5 (1 Unit). I'm not in love with the pick because I think the line is pretty fair, but I never know how LSU is going to play on the road, and I'm not sure if A&M has given up or can score on LSU's suffocating defense. Only one unit.

Kentucky v. Louisville -26.5 - I like LOUISVILLE -26.5 (2 Units) because they got embarrassed by Houston last week. Look, Louisville is good and Kentucky isn't. But add in the fact that Louisville is coming off a game where they were pissed off and punked? Kentucky might get destroyed.

Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +7.5 - I like VANDERBILT +7.5 (1 Unit) since Vandy getting points at home in a rivalry game is usually a good thing. I'm not entirely sure Tennessee is even mentally right for this game and Vanderbilt is playing for the chance at a bowl game.

Auburn v. Alabama -17 - I like ALABAMA -17 (1 Unit) Just ride Alabama until the money train stops. That's the only thing you need to worry about right now.

South Carolina v. Clemson -24 - I like SOUTH CAROLINA +24 (3 Units). This spread makes no sense. At the absolute worst, which was last year, South Carolina lost this game 37-32. I think that Clemson team was better last year, and this South Carolina team is better this year.

MONEY LINE PICK OF THE WEEK

I like Florida again getting +230 against FSU in a game that Florida needs to win to have a shot at the Sugar Bowl. So everything on the line, and I don't believe Florida State is amazing this year. We'll see, it's worth the flyer.

SEC Picks Week 12

So I won a unit last week. Sorry about not doing a film review again but time is a factor now as we get later into the holidays. I don't expect to put up another film review until the SEC championship unless a game really jumps out at me. Last week with UGA upsetting Auburn was a fun game, but it wasn't one I think works well on tape unless you love pointing out how Auburn made massive mistakes. While that's fun, it's pretty obvious to anybody that watched. I like pointing out the subtleties. And I'd need more time. Which I don't have.

Anyway, I finally hit the FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK with UGA! Woooo! Then Arkansas cost me huge. If I'd won that game, I would have pulled off an 11 unit swing and saved my season. Oh well. Reminder that this is a terrible week of crap in the SEC outside of 3 games, most of which aren't lined. I will be spending this weekend outdoors with the girlfriend. On to the picks!

BETTING PICKS:

UL Lafayette v. Georgia -23: I'm taking UL LAFAYETTE +23 (2 Units) - Georgia's coming off a big high beating Auburn. They have Tech next week. This is the very definition of the trap game and this is a lot of points for a Georgia team that can't really score.

Missouri v. Tennessee -16.5: I'm taking MISSOURI +16.5 (2 Units) - I mean I guess Missouri is bad, but is Tennessee suddenly good? Like 16.5 points good? The public is 80% on Tennessee right now and the sharps will always go the other way on that high of a betting line so I'm following suit.


UPSET ML PICK:

Guys, FLORIDA is +450 on the road against LSU. That's insane. The team is NOT that bad, and there's real value here for Florida to pull off an upset against an LSU team that I don't believe is playing with anywhere near enough offense consistently. Florida's defense is good, and their offense is crap. LSU's defense is great and their offense is mostly crap too. In a defensive war, anything can happen. I'll take the flyer here.

SEC Picks Week 11

I'll cut to the chase. I went even up on units last week so this week I only have two picks. I won't bother wasting your time on all the other games because here are the two that matter:

BETTING PICKS:

South Carolina v. Florida -11: I'll take FLORDIA -11 (3 units) South Carolina is coming off a high of winning against a bad Tennessee team with massive injuries and no direction. They are about to head into the Swamp where they won in 2014 in OT. Florida remembers that. They also remember they HAVE to win this game to win the East. And their defense will deliver because South Carolina's offense is awful.

LSU v. Arkansas +7: I'll take ARKANSAS +7 (5 units) Again, like last week against Florida, I have no idea why Arkansas keeps getting ZERO respect on the lines. They were 4 point underdogs against Florida and crushed them. That was the easiest pick all week. Now they have an LSU team that is coming off being beaten to death by Alabama? I'm taking Arkansas huge.

UPSET ML PICK:

Take the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens +300. Nobody sees this coming, and the Dawgs are the biggest underdog they've ever been at home in 20 years. This game can go one of two ways. Auburn can come in and blow doors, which is a possibility. However, Auburn hasn't won in Athens since 2010, and they haven't been close in the other matchups. This could end up being the Dawgs shocking win of the year. But don't go huge on it. I'd say toss 1-2 units for the upside.

Week 10 Review: The SEC East Projections

We're 2/3 of the way through the conference season, so instead of doing a film review of the CBS game this week (which was a boring defensive slog in my mind), I'd rather take a look at the path to the dome for several of the remaining teams that have a shot. Let's take a look at the options.

TENNESSEE:

Yes, Tennessee is still alive in the SEC East, although they need a lot of help. Here's their remaining games on the schedule:

Kentucky at home
Missouri at home
Vandy on the road

Those are fairly simple games, but then again Tennessee lost to South Carolina and they are injured to hell and back. There's a scenario where Tennessee can have a loss and make it to the dome. However, it's much easier if they win out. Let's project the scenarios:

Have 2 losses on the remaining schedule: OUT
Lose to Kentucky: OUT (this would give Kentucky 5 SEC wins)
Win against Kentucky and either Mizzou or Vandy, and Florida 1 of their remaining 2 games: OUT
Win against Kentucky and either Mizzou or Vandy, Florida loses their final 2: OUT (because South Carolina would have beaten Florida, getting them to 4 wins, and they have H2H on Tennessee)
Win against Kentucky and Vandy, lose to Mizzou. Florida loses both games, Georgia beats Auburn: IN (via 5-way 4 win tiebreaker)
Tennessee wins out, Florida wins out: OUT (Florida has 6 wins)
Tennessee wins out, Florida loses a game: IN (this is the only scenario that works for Tennessee)

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Yes, South Carolina can win the East as well. There's several scenarios where this happens though, and it's complicated.

Beat Florida, and Tennessee loses a game to somebody not named Kentucky, Georgia loses to Auburn: IN (South Carolina then has 4 wins, H2H over 4 win Florida and Tennessee teams)
Beat Florida, Tennessee loses to Vandy AND Mizzou: IN (South Carolina wins a tiebreaker going up to 6 teams which would be insane, depending on Georgia v. Auburn)


KENTUCKY:

Yes, Kentucky is still in it. They have to do one thing just like South Carolina, also very complicated.

Beat Tennessee, and Florida takes 2 losses to South Carolina and LSU: IN (Kentucky has 5 wins, everybody else has 4 or less)

FLORIDA:

Florida has the simplest route: Win out and you're IN (they would have 6 SEC wins)

Georgia, Vandy, and Missouri are eliminated.

Week 10 SEC Picks

Hey I actually won Week 8 by going up one unit, then promptly forgot to make picks in Week 9 because I was going out of town. Ooops. Anyway, let's do this with the picks for this week!

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS:

Texas A&M v. Mississippi State - TEXAS A&M
Vanderbilt v. Auburn - AUBURN
GA Southern v. Ole Miss - OLE MISS
Florida v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
Missouri v. South Carolina - SOUTH CAROLINA
Tenn Tech v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Georgia v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Alabama v. LSU - ALABAMA

BETTING PICKS:

Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +14 - I'll take MS STATE +14 (1 Unit). Look MS State is awful. Texas A&M isn't. But 14 points for a home dog is ridiculous unless it's Alabama playing them, and Texas A&M isn't Alabama at all. So I'm taking the number.

Florida v. Arkansas +4 - I'll take ARKANSAS +4 (2 Units) Why is Arkansas getting points at home to a Florida team that was anything but impressive offensively against a bad Georgia team? That makes no sense. I'm taking the points again.

Mizzou v. South Carolina -7 - Again I'm taking MISSOURI +7 (1 Unit) It's about points and the fact South Carolina's offense is crap. If Missouri can keep it within one score, and I think they can, then this should be an easy cover for the dog.

Georgia v. Kentucky +2 - This one hurts but take KENTUCKY +2 (1 Unit) Weird things happen when Georgia goes to Kentucky, and I don't trust this Dawgs offense to suddenly figure out how to block. I do trust them to stop Kentucky's run, but that just leads to a close game where maybe Georgia wins by 1 if they are lucky.

Alabama v. LSU +7 - Give me LSU +7 (1 Unit) The public is going to be on Alabama because they've covered so much. In fact the line would tell you to always take Alabama, so it's sort of shocking that Vegas tossed out a low number. I'll tell you why they did, because the sharps are loading up on LSU in a close one.

FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK!

If you want to be dumb and waste some money on a big payday, VANDERBILT +1500 against Auburn begs to have a look. Why? Because Auburn is schizo and Vandy isn't as horrible as they've have you believe. Is Vandy good? No. Is Auburn bad? No. BUT Auburn has shown they can throw a shoe against anybody and they've got Georgia on the road next week who they will take way more seriously than Vandy.

Georgia vs. Florida Week 9 SEC Game Film Review

When I sat in the stadium for the Georgia-Florida game I wasn't expecting much. I got even less. The game was awful if you are a Georgia fan, an SEC fan, or a fan of decent football. It wasn't fun to watch I would imagine even as a Gator fan because they were far from awesome on the field. They won, Georgia didn't, and that's what matters. However, I don't think anybody walked away entertained by this sideshow. I'll look at Georgia in depth, whereas I usually look at the winning team, because I think we all need to hopefully explain what went wrong. And I'm a Georgia fan, so screw it I'm making the rules here.

GEORGIA OFFENSE:

Georgia can't run the ball. Their offensive line is the reason for that, but the play calling and formations aren't doing them any favors. I'll even explain why the receivers are causing problems for the offense, and it all came in Georgia's first series on the goal line. Let me break it down for you.

This is Georgia on 2nd and goal from the 2. What I want you to note is the bunched goal line formation. This is a power running set with everyone close in, and Florida has responded by putting all 11 players in the box. After all, there's nothing for them to really cover right now. As it so happens, Georgia jumped offsides on a dumb penalty, so we'll never know if this would have worked.

Here's 2nd and Goal after the penalty. Note that Georgia is still in a power running formation with one WR on the outside. Everyone and their dog knows that Georgia is running the ball. Florida has put literally 10 guys in the yellow box because THEY know Georgia is going to run the ball. It's impossible to run against a 10 man box unless your offensive line is awesome, and Georgia's is far from awesome. So when Georgia does run the ball, here's what happens:

Note the yellow box. That's #83 TE Jeb Blazevich getting horsewhipped to the inside by a Florida defensive lineman who is about to blow up this run. On top you'll see two more Florida linemen overrunning our single blocker trying to take them on. Both of those guys are going to get home to Chubb as well and kill this play. Why? Because it's a predictable call and you have to check out of it to a pass. The formation begged for a pass. But Georgia didn't check out and instead got hit with a loss.

Here's 3rd and 7 to the goal, and we know it's a pass. Two receivers are circled on the bottom, and there's a TE offset on that side near the line, also there's a TE on top. I've circled what should happen. Florida is showing again a 9 man box with a blitz coming. The TE's should stay in there to protect, but they don't. They go out into pass lanes. The WR's at the bottom should run to different sides of the field to open things up. The ideal throw is a quick strike to the WR in blue as he streaks to the center on a quick slant. Again, because Florida is showing blitz. This isn't hard.

Here's what happens. Both TE's go into crossing coverage in the middle of the field running at each other. Both WR's at the bottom run down into each other. You now have Florida blitzing 7 and dropping 4 into coverage. And you know what sucks? Both Florida DBs have the space covered at the top, and ONE Florida DB can cover the bottom space. If Eason picks any guy right now, he's throwing into double coverage because the receivers are in the same area. You should NEVER have two receivers in the same area on a play, let alone have two in the same are in DIFFERENT AREAS. Eason now only has two choices, and he should have four because they are all in the same space. 

And time is running out because of the blitz. It was supposed to be a pick-play that never developed because you can't run a pick with a blitz coming that far down the field. This is either terrible play design, or stupid receivers who can't run routes, or both. Either way, it failed and Georgia kicked a FG. And it went like this all day long. Florida's defense looked like they were stealing signs from the Georgia dugout.

The problem is that every time Georgia comes out in a power running set against Florida, that's a bad idea. If anything Georgia should have been more concerned about getting to the edge, spreading Florida out, and getting away from the disaster that Florida's defense can create in the middle, but they didn't. Georgia did have one drive in the 2nd quarter that ended in a TD, but that was because they decided to throw on 4 of the 6 plays down the field, and got a pass interference call to get to the end zone. That never happened again in the second half. In fact the Georgia offense never GOT TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FIFTY IN THE SECOND HALF. That should tell you what you need to know.

GEORGIA DEFENSE:

I'll give them credit, the Dawgs defense stood tall for a long time. In fact, Georgia had the lead until a Gator drive that started with five minutes left in the second half. That was because in the prior possessions, it went like this for the Gators: INT, PUNT, TD, PUNT, PUNT. Honestly, if you told me in 5 possessions that Georgia would only give up 7 points in the first half? AND get a turnover? That's great news and gives us a great chance to win. The problem is that Florida kept getting short fields thanks to the special teams totally botching the punting game. Here's Florida's starting field position in the game by possession: FL25, FL37, UGA39 (off a fumble turnover), FL25, FL 37, UGA 44 (bad punt), FL 34, UGA 49, FL 44, FL30, FL21, UGA 47, UGA 45. 

If you're noticing that at no point did Florida ever start inside their own 20, that's correct. If you're noticing that five times Florida started in UGA territory, that's right too. If you're also noticing the average starting field position for Florida was around their own 40 yard line, welp, that's also correct. Which isn't a recipe for success. But let's take a look at the Florida TD before the half because it was a turning point in the game, and Georgia never led again. In fact they never SCORED again. So here we go.

It's 3rd down. Georgia has a chance to get off the field if they can make a stop. They've been playing in a standard nickel thus far for most of the protections, but the defense is about to make a gamble. It's single coverage at the top, and man on man at the bottom with the two WRs represented by the black boxes. There's 2 safeties behind the play covering the deep ball. I have two problems with this. First look at the orange circle in the middle with #35 CB Aaron Davis. I have no idea who he thinks he's covering. What he does is pull back to the left and leave Florida's #81 Antonio Callaway in single coverage at the top with #14 Malkolm Parrish. While I like Parrish okay, Callaway is by far the Gator's best receiver, and it's stupid to put one man on him with no help on a critical third down. But the reason he's alone is because Georgia is showing blitz in the middle with the yellow circle. When you blitz and you leave cornerbacks on islands, you better get there.

Georgia doesn't get there. This is the play about a second before Florida throws the ball to Callaway. Now, Parrish falls down on the play so it's an easy back shoulder reception for a first down, but that's not even the point. It's tough to defend that play standing up when the entirerty of your blitz package is literally still 5 yards away from the QB with no real shot at getting there. Look at the RB in the backfield. He correctly read blitz and is waiting in the middle to block somebody. EXCEPT THERE'S NOBODY TO BLOCK. Nobody got even close on this play so it was an easy pitch and catch completion. That was the problem all day long. Even though Georgia got 3 sacks in the game, they didn't get there on 3rd downs when it mattered most. And as a result Florida went 9-18 on 3rd down conversions. It's almost impossible to win a game if your defense allows a 50% conversion rate, unless your offense is just blistering hot. And Georgia's offense was far from hot.

This one is an example of how bad angles get you in trouble. It's a screen pass for Florida. #2 for Georgia has position on the blocker and just has to keep going to the sideline to cut off the RB. Right now the RB has two choices. He can follow to the sideline and try to get an edge, but #2 will meet him there if he keeps going, or he can cut it up behind his lead blocker who is actually behind the play right now and get tackled by #5 from Georgia.

Unless of course #2 tries to stop, runs into the blocker, and #5 goes around the blocker to the outside effectively taking himself out of the play. Both lose contain and as a result the Florida RB makes it to the edge and continues to run for another 8 yards, getting a yard short of a first down which Florida will then convert to get them in the red zone. The play breaks down because the defense doesn't know what it's supposed to be doing here, and one blocker in #65 effectively washes out THREE Georgia players on the play. That's not supposed to happen. 

Florida eventually goes on to score on that series on a simple 2 yard run after a pass interference call. But really how many times could the Dawg defense stand up against these short fields? If anything it was a miracle they held the Gators to 24 points, and only 231 total yards of offense. Florida only ran the ball for about 2.1 yards a carry, but the Georgia offense was so horrific they couldn't even get out of their own shadow. Which meant eventually that Florida was on the field with the ball for 37 and a half minutes. And unless you're Baylor scoring at will, giving the other team the ball for 37 minutes is a recipe for disaster.

CONCLUSION:

It didn't matter what Georgia did in the second half defensively because the game was already over. Georgia scored all the points they were going to get in the first half, and they did it with passing. The only weapon Georgia has right now is Jacob Eason, and he's mostly running for his life. His receivers do him zero favors by running bad routes and dropping open passes. The line does him no favors because it's a pass-blocking disaster that has him fleeing to the edge without setting his feet. There is no "pocket" for the pocket passing Eason to throw. That means if the running game is stymied, Georgia is screwed. And Florida managed to hold Georgia to 1 yard a carry. One. Solitary. Yard. Per. Carry. That's how you lose a football game my friends, and that's how Georgia may lose a few more if they aren't careful and get their offensive act together.

My suggestion? You're not a power running team. Setting up in power running formations only gives the defense an advantage, not you. Which means to get things going you're going to have to spread teams out, get some lanes open, and use your edges. You are going to have to get Eason better at the playaction fake to get teams to respect it. Your TEs actually have to block instead of wandering down the field in bad pass routes that do nothing. And on top of all that, the running-backs actually have to hit the holes when they are there, and not juke around in the backfield because they will close fast. Does it sound like alot? That's because it is, but make no mistake if Georgia doesn't figure out how to score some points next week, Kentucky will beat them outright.

Alabama v. Texas A&M: Week 8 Game Film Review

Let's make something abundantly clear about this Alabama game. The offense didn't play well, despite the score you see at the end. And that sounds odd given that they won by 19 points, 33-14, but you'll agree with me that when you watch the tape, the offense was not firing on all cylinders, and did not take advantage of several opportunities to turn this game into the ultimate rout. Alabama won, so they get the focus in this week's review.

ALABAMA OFFENSE:

Now many of you will say, wait a second Ben, Alabama had 450 yards of offense and 28 first downs, and you're saying they didn't play well. Yes, I'm saying that and here's why. Alabama only had one offensive TD in the first half out of 4 trips to the red zone. That's not acceptable for a team with the kind of running firepower that Alabama possesses. And yet, they'd run the ball to get into the 20s, and inexplicably start to throw it around as they got close to the end zone. I don't understand it, but then again I'm not the playcaller.

My basic point is that when you only score 27 points on 450 yards, you're wasting possessions. Think of yards as nothing more than an indicator of game dominance. Similar to time of possession. If you have high yardage and high TOP you should win a game. Sometimes you don't because of turnovers, or allowing the other team high yardage, or you fail to convert inside the red zone and settle for 3s.

And don't think for a second this game wasn't in doubt. There was a time in the second quarter where Alabama was trailing by a point. They had to have an offensive TD and a fumble return TD to put the game away for good, but A&M played Alabama tough the whole way, and did a great job defensively playing Alabama in throwing situations. However, they weren't immune to the deep ball and here's an example of how Lane Kiffin can outscheme your defense.

Here's the opening formation Alabama is coming out in a shotgun 1-back set, with trips to the left, and a TE offset on the left side. They are overloading the left, but the key is that the receiver is blue is a decoy. He's not an eligible receiver because in order to be eligible you have to be the furthest receiver out on that side on the line of scrimmage. In this case, the yellow receiver is the furthest out on the line, and the orange receiver is offset a yard back from the line of scrimmage. Because the orange receiver is set back a yard, he is eligible as well. As is the TE offset in the middle. Remember, you're eligible if you're not on the line of scrimmage. You're ineligible if there's two guys on the line of scrimmage ON THE SAME SIDE.

Confusing I know. But just remember that blue is ineligible and can't cross the line of scrimmage now. He's like a lineman and if he runs downfield they get a penalty for illegal man downfield. The yellow receiver is going to be the guy who gets the ball. The orange receiver will run a straight fly route down the left sideline.

Here's the play post-snap and ball in the air. As you can see the receiver on the lower right in red never crossed the line of scrimmage and confused the LB in the red box so he's covering nobody. That leaves 3 DBs to cover three WR's down the field in one-on-one coverage. The receiver at the bottom in the orange box is covered. The receiver at the top in the orange box is mostly covered, but probably could make a catch for a 15-20 yard gain. But the receiver in the yellow? He's blown by his guy and he's about to make the big catch for 46 yards. That's ArDarius Stewart, and if QB Jalen Hurts hits him in stride, it's a housecall. He underthrew it slightly so it was only a huge playgain. Still, it shows you how Alabama can really put you in difficult situations with their formations alone.

ALABAMA DEFENSE:

The bread and butter of Alabama is still just as good as ever. Let's take a look at two things. One is on special teams coverage where Alabama got away with a targeting call. It was a kick return and Speedy Noil, one of A&Ms best receivers and players was coming back across the middle when this happened.

Yeah that's Speedy's head getting hit with the top of the Alabama player's helmet. Folks, there's only one clear part of the targeting rule and it's this: "No player shall target and make forcible contact with another player with the crown (top) of his helmet." When in question, it's a foul in the rulebook. That picture to me is VERY much in question, which means it's a foul, and he should have been thrown out of the game. He wasn't. Play didn't even stop. There was no flag, no review, and no mention of it on the field other than that people bringing it up in the booth. And they should have because the refs blatantly missed this one. When it's a team like Alabama, that inevitably brings up bias, especially because another player on A&M was (rightly) ejected for targeting later in the game.

The second thing to bring up is how frightening the front 6-7 of Alabama really is. How frightening?

The yellow circle is #93 Johnathon Allen literally Superman-style sacking the QB after beating 2, maybe 3 blocks to get there. Look at him. His legs are literally parallel to the ground. He's in full on dive smashing his face into the QB's chest for a sack. That dude weighs 291 pounds and he's got THAT kind of launch in him. Good lord. That's totally insane. Can you not see how insane that is? LOOK AGAIN, IT'S HALLOWEEN ALMOST THAT #$@% IS SCARY!

Texas A&M normally scored around 36 points on average against SEC teams this year coming into this game with Alabama. Alabama held them to 14 points. It's not even really fair right now with who good Alabama is playing. The absolute only way you can beat them, and it may not be possible short of the NFL level of talent, is to have an offensive line that's good enough to give the QB time to throw it down the field. Alabama is vulnerable in the secondary, that's why they gave up 2 passing touchdowns. But you have to have enough time to throw, and the Bama front 7 isn't going to give you that luxury often.

CONCLUSIONS:

Unless Alabama gets in their own way and turns the ball over, there's only one team left on this schedule who has the offensive firepower to beat them, and that's Auburn. Given that it's a rivalry game, that one looms larger and larger. My concern is that regardless of how it plays out, Auburn is primarily a confusion based running team, not a passing team. And if Alabama decides to stack up and make you throw? I think Auburn gets beat badly. But who knows? I've underrated Auburn all year. Maybe this time they've got an answer nobody else has had thus far.

I doubt it though.