This will likely be the only time I reference Vanderbilt in-depth all season long, but like any other SEC program, there's money to be made on win bets for the over/under. As such, I'll break down their season (almost) as seriously as any other team. However, just know that good information on what Vandy might be this year isn't easy to find without scouring the corners of the internet best left to recruiting blogs and scholarship articles or IBM's Watson.
Vanderbilt's top QB Johnny McCrary transferred to Mercer this offseason. The fact there's a quarterback that transferred out of the SEC to Mercer rattles around in my brain like a metal screw in copper cup. I honestly don't know what motivated that particular move other than he sucked and was replaced by Kyle Shurmer in the latter half of the season. Still, Mercer? I mean I've played sports at a Texas high school with a bigger following than Mercer football. What the hell league are they in, the Sunshine conference? Hold please. Ok, I looked it up, they play in the Southern Conference with teams like VMI and The Citadel. Don't sleep on The Citadel, they beat South Carolina last season. Then again, who didn't? Oh that's right, UNC didn't somehow. That's a veiled shot since I'm a UGA grad.
Where was I? Oh right I'm previewing Vanderbilt. I doubt any of you are actually reading this but in case you are, the QB for Vandy this year will likely be Kyle Shurmer in my estimation, who had 503 yards passing and 5 TDs last year in limited games. Also, 3 picks but who's counting. It was fewer picks than McCrary's 12 on the season. So, the now sophomore Shurmer will be tasked to lead a Vanderbilt offense that faces off against the entire SEC East, plus GA Tech, Ole Miss, and Auburn. It's a rough road. But there's still a small QB CONTROVERSY in Vanderbilt with a guy like Wade Freebeck, who didn't really get a shot last year but still remains on the Vandy roles and is in a competition with Shurmer. In my mind he loses out, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention it. After all, you follow me for up to the date Vanderbilt information.
A possible high point for Vandy next year will be Ralph Webb, the junior out of Gainesville, FL who shunned the Gators in favor of life as a Commodore. Anybody who shuns the Gators is a good man in my book. But more impressively than that, Webb ran for 1152 yards last year with an average of 4+ per carry, and 5 TDs. Now, you'd expect some of that was against crap opponents to pad the stats, and you'd be right. Webb did have 155 of those yards against Middle Tennessee and 100+ against Kentucky. However, he put up two 100+ yard games against Tennessee and Florida as well, so he was no slouch in big moments. If not for some bad luck, he would have been instrumental in a Florida upset for the ages, but alas the Gators pulled that one out of the fire, only to get destroyed by basically everyone else ranked late in the season.
I'll skip the Vandy offensive line because nobody cares. Just know that they suck when compared to everybody else of size in the SEC, so it's not an asset for the team. If you're looking for receivers on Vandy, look no further than Trent Sherfield, who amassed 659 yards with an average of 12+ yards a catch. If that doesn't sound impressive, it's because it sort of isn't. At best he's a deep play threat if the young QB can get enough time, but as I pointed out before this line won't give him much of that, and a QB with only 6 games of experience (with the toughest teams he faced Tennessee and A&M & he got shellacked in both) I'm not expecting a powerful passing game out of the Commodores this year. They will have to rely on rushing and defense.
And defense will be what holds this team together if anything. Vanderbilt has several top-tier defensive pieces like LB Zach Cunningham and Safety Oren Burks, along with defensive Tackles Adam Butler and Torey Agee. All of those player return to form a defense that should continue to wreck havoc on the opposing team's running game. Vandy was 33rd against the run last year in CFB, which is damned impressive for a team that lost 8 games. They were also in the top 50 in passing defense, and 22nd in point allowed.
You'd think that a team with 22nd in points allowed couldn't POSSIBLY lose 8 games and miss a bowl, but the offense was 124th in the nation. There are only 128 teams. Yeah. There's bad and then there's Vanderbilt bad. If it's any consolation Mizzou was worse, somehow. Wonder why the SEC East gets no respect still? Mizzou, South Carolina, Vandy, and Kentucky last year didn't help the situation. That and watching UGA and Tennessee poop their pants in big games. Florida won the division while scoring around 15 points a game in their last 5 games, including the bowl. It was the very definition of winning by default. Ugh.
Will Vandy be better this year? Honestly, it's hard to get worse, and yet somehow that might actually happen. The offensive line isn't going to improve, Webb will certainly get keyed on as the key threat in the offense, and they are really breaking in a new QB in a much tougher schedule with much improved SEC East teams. They won 4 games last year, narrowly missing some upsets. Honestly, I think they take a step back this year.
VANDERBILT PREDICTION: 3-9
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Mississippi State SEC Football 2016 Preview
Dak Prescott is gone. Those words should fill every Mississippi State fan with a feeling of impending doom for the 2016 season. Because after all, Dak was the most successful QB in Mississippi State history. Bar none. There should be exactly zero argument from any of the fans. He finished with school records in yards, TDs, and completions. He also finished as the 3rd highest passing yardage QB in all of SEC history. That's an insane accomplishment for the young man, and it's a huge loss for the Bulldog program.
That being said, life goes on, and MS State will have to put a new man in charge of the offense. Remember the QB controversy? It's back after we skipped it in Kentucky, and in MS State it's back with a vengeance. Enter Nick Fitzgerald, Nick Tiano, and JUCO transfer Wyatt Roberts. Are any of them good? Honestly, nobody knows. Fitzgerald got some mop-up time in crap games, but that shouldn't give you any idea if he can actually perform. Wyatt Roberts was a 23 TD and 2 INT stud at the JUCO level, but that doesn't always translate. And Tiano is a redshirt with no reps to speak of. So, your guess is as good as mine, but based on what I know of coaches, it's really down to Roberts or Fitzgerald while Tiano waits his turn if both of them blow it. Either way, QB is a complete crapshoot this year.
Runningback is a little clearer in that it will be the pair of senior RBs Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert, along with change of pace back Aeris Williams. However, just because they are seniors doesn't mean I think they are very impressive. After all, Dak Prescott was also the lead rusher on this team last year by a long shot, so Holloway and Shumpert weren't exactly workhorses in the offense. Now? They'll likely have to produce a lot more yards then they did last year: 413 and 228 respectively. Wide Receiver is in a better place with slot guys Fred Ross and Malik Dear. Ross was the top target last year with 1000+ yards and I have no reason to believe he will get less targets in 2016. Look for him and Dear as the main options in an offense that will be looking to dink and dunk people to death with a new QB.
The offensive line returns 3 starters along with senior Center Jamaal Clayborn, so things should be in good hands there. Look for next year when those guys graduate as a real issue for replacements, especially on the right side of the line. On the defensive line, new coordinator Peter Sirmon will have to figure out how to make the returning defensive ends more effective in the pass rush. The returning ends only had 7.5 sacks spread amongst all of them last year, which isn't nearly enough to be effective in the rush these days. Also, MS State didn't force enough turnovers last year, and subsequently ended up 92nd in turnover margin in CFB. That's got to change in a West division where 3 of the other teams they play against were in the top 30 in that category.
Overall, MS State looks extremely mediocre to me on paper. I'm not impressed with their running game, I'm certainly not impressed with replacing Dak at QB, and their best WRs are slot guys. The defense doesn't produce much of a pass rush or get a ton of turnovers. If anything, MS State is the tapioca this year of the SEC West. I expect them to be extremely bland as they try to figure out life without Dak, which means they likely won't have a ton of on-field success.
MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION: 7-5
That being said, life goes on, and MS State will have to put a new man in charge of the offense. Remember the QB controversy? It's back after we skipped it in Kentucky, and in MS State it's back with a vengeance. Enter Nick Fitzgerald, Nick Tiano, and JUCO transfer Wyatt Roberts. Are any of them good? Honestly, nobody knows. Fitzgerald got some mop-up time in crap games, but that shouldn't give you any idea if he can actually perform. Wyatt Roberts was a 23 TD and 2 INT stud at the JUCO level, but that doesn't always translate. And Tiano is a redshirt with no reps to speak of. So, your guess is as good as mine, but based on what I know of coaches, it's really down to Roberts or Fitzgerald while Tiano waits his turn if both of them blow it. Either way, QB is a complete crapshoot this year.
Runningback is a little clearer in that it will be the pair of senior RBs Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert, along with change of pace back Aeris Williams. However, just because they are seniors doesn't mean I think they are very impressive. After all, Dak Prescott was also the lead rusher on this team last year by a long shot, so Holloway and Shumpert weren't exactly workhorses in the offense. Now? They'll likely have to produce a lot more yards then they did last year: 413 and 228 respectively. Wide Receiver is in a better place with slot guys Fred Ross and Malik Dear. Ross was the top target last year with 1000+ yards and I have no reason to believe he will get less targets in 2016. Look for him and Dear as the main options in an offense that will be looking to dink and dunk people to death with a new QB.
The offensive line returns 3 starters along with senior Center Jamaal Clayborn, so things should be in good hands there. Look for next year when those guys graduate as a real issue for replacements, especially on the right side of the line. On the defensive line, new coordinator Peter Sirmon will have to figure out how to make the returning defensive ends more effective in the pass rush. The returning ends only had 7.5 sacks spread amongst all of them last year, which isn't nearly enough to be effective in the rush these days. Also, MS State didn't force enough turnovers last year, and subsequently ended up 92nd in turnover margin in CFB. That's got to change in a West division where 3 of the other teams they play against were in the top 30 in that category.
Overall, MS State looks extremely mediocre to me on paper. I'm not impressed with their running game, I'm certainly not impressed with replacing Dak at QB, and their best WRs are slot guys. The defense doesn't produce much of a pass rush or get a ton of turnovers. If anything, MS State is the tapioca this year of the SEC West. I expect them to be extremely bland as they try to figure out life without Dak, which means they likely won't have a ton of on-field success.
MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION: 7-5
Monday, August 22, 2016
Kentucky SEC Football Preview 2016
Let's get the obligatory jokes about it not being basketball season out of the way early, shall we? I'm doing a football preview on Kentucky, which some of you will find interesting, and the rest of you might learn something for your betting book. Kentucky was a well below average team in 2015 that finished with a 5-7 record, and a 2-6 record in the SEC. The Wildcats haven't been to a bowl game since 2010, yet every year I hear about how things are improving from Kentucky fans. Let's see if they are right this year.
Kentucky's problem last year was very simple: They turned the ball over entirely too much. While their QB Patrick Towles had what I considered to be an impressive arm, he threw 14 interceptions on the season. If you're throwing more than 12, that's more than 1 per game, and that's baaaaaaaad. You better have 30 TDs to go with that, and he only had 9 on the season. So at the end of the year since Towles was such a turnover machine, the Kentucky coaching staff benched him for Drew Barker, who wasn't much better. Then, Towles decided to transfer to Boston College. Which I find hilarious because he transferred from a 5-7 SEC team to a 3-9 ACC team. That's like leaving Applebee's because you didn't like the food, and heading to Golden Corral. It's not a step up.
Go ahead and type "Kentucky quarterback" into Google, and one of your suggested choices will be "Kentucky quarterback fat" which will then lead you to Jared Lorenzen. This is apropos of nothing except that when you try to find information on the current Kentucky quarterback, Google will sideline you with tales of the Pillsbury Throwboy who hasn't taken a snap for the Wildcats since 2003. I think that says something about the current Kentucky quarterback situation that I honestly couldn't put into better words. You have to really dig to find any information about this program this year.
The actual Kentucky quarterback this season will be Drew Barker, and absolutely nobody should be excited about that. Head coach Mark Stoops named him the starter after spring practice, likely because of a lack of options. If you read more online, you can see that Alabama poached a top QB recruit from Kentucky for 2017, which again should shock nobody. If you have a choice between Alabama and Kentucky and you choose Kentucky in the current football climate, you need to be tested to make sure you're under some sort of mind-controlling super-drug developed by the Russians for Cold War soldiers. Because only they would choose something that bleak.
Barker played some snaps as the starter last season against Louisville and Charlotte. Yeah. So he's seen exactly ZERO teams from the SEC, and even against those rather mediocre clubs he still didn't throw a single TD. If Barker is the answer, I'll be thoroughly shocked. What is going to be an answer for Kentucky is their running game, led by Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp. I watched Jojo Kemp play over the last two years, and he's absolutely electric when he gets the ball in space, especially in games against South Carolina. Meanwhile Boom Williams had some injury issues that had him missing two games last season, but he finished with 855 yards on just 128 carries. That's over 7 yards a carry, which is frankly absurd. If Kentucky has any shot at doing well, it will be on these running-backs to get the job done along with their offensive line.
Speaking of the line, Kentucky returns four starters from a unit that helped those Kentucky running backs amass quite a few yards. The problem for them will be in pass protection against SEC defenses ready to eat a young QB alive. They'll have to rely on receivers like Dorian Baker and Garrett Johnson to provide Barker with targets, who did well last season catching passes from Towles. The line can only keep a young kid upright for a few seconds, and if Baker or Johnson can't find some space, it's going to be check-down-Charlie or duck-and-cover for Kentucky.
On defense, Kentucky was terrible last year, on par with teams like South Carolina and Auburn in points allowed. Stoops was quoted after recent practices complaining about his depth on defense at the Linebacker and Defensive line positions. That's a HUGE issue because Kentucky's only real hope to keep up with the talent at other higher recruited programs is to keep fresh legs on the field. If they can't rotate in and out effective line players, they have no advantages in a man-on-a-man scenario with 12 of the 14 teams in the SEC. Instead, they'll have to resort to ball-hawking, and that was a decent strategy last year as Kentucky forced 20 turnovers. The problem was their own team gave away 22. You can't be that careless with the ball and have a defensive unit this questionable.
Overall, Kentucky looks good on the run, good on the offensive line, good on receivers, and pretty much everything else has the potential to be a disaster. Kentucky could make a bowl game if Barker plays WAY better than I think he's capable of playing, and their defense continues to force other teams into bad decisions with the football. However, if I'm guessing, I think this is another slide back year for Kentucky given the schedule and their issues on defense.
KENTUCKY PREDICTION: 4-8
Kentucky's problem last year was very simple: They turned the ball over entirely too much. While their QB Patrick Towles had what I considered to be an impressive arm, he threw 14 interceptions on the season. If you're throwing more than 12, that's more than 1 per game, and that's baaaaaaaad. You better have 30 TDs to go with that, and he only had 9 on the season. So at the end of the year since Towles was such a turnover machine, the Kentucky coaching staff benched him for Drew Barker, who wasn't much better. Then, Towles decided to transfer to Boston College. Which I find hilarious because he transferred from a 5-7 SEC team to a 3-9 ACC team. That's like leaving Applebee's because you didn't like the food, and heading to Golden Corral. It's not a step up.
Go ahead and type "Kentucky quarterback" into Google, and one of your suggested choices will be "Kentucky quarterback fat" which will then lead you to Jared Lorenzen. This is apropos of nothing except that when you try to find information on the current Kentucky quarterback, Google will sideline you with tales of the Pillsbury Throwboy who hasn't taken a snap for the Wildcats since 2003. I think that says something about the current Kentucky quarterback situation that I honestly couldn't put into better words. You have to really dig to find any information about this program this year.
The actual Kentucky quarterback this season will be Drew Barker, and absolutely nobody should be excited about that. Head coach Mark Stoops named him the starter after spring practice, likely because of a lack of options. If you read more online, you can see that Alabama poached a top QB recruit from Kentucky for 2017, which again should shock nobody. If you have a choice between Alabama and Kentucky and you choose Kentucky in the current football climate, you need to be tested to make sure you're under some sort of mind-controlling super-drug developed by the Russians for Cold War soldiers. Because only they would choose something that bleak.
Barker played some snaps as the starter last season against Louisville and Charlotte. Yeah. So he's seen exactly ZERO teams from the SEC, and even against those rather mediocre clubs he still didn't throw a single TD. If Barker is the answer, I'll be thoroughly shocked. What is going to be an answer for Kentucky is their running game, led by Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp. I watched Jojo Kemp play over the last two years, and he's absolutely electric when he gets the ball in space, especially in games against South Carolina. Meanwhile Boom Williams had some injury issues that had him missing two games last season, but he finished with 855 yards on just 128 carries. That's over 7 yards a carry, which is frankly absurd. If Kentucky has any shot at doing well, it will be on these running-backs to get the job done along with their offensive line.
Speaking of the line, Kentucky returns four starters from a unit that helped those Kentucky running backs amass quite a few yards. The problem for them will be in pass protection against SEC defenses ready to eat a young QB alive. They'll have to rely on receivers like Dorian Baker and Garrett Johnson to provide Barker with targets, who did well last season catching passes from Towles. The line can only keep a young kid upright for a few seconds, and if Baker or Johnson can't find some space, it's going to be check-down-Charlie or duck-and-cover for Kentucky.
On defense, Kentucky was terrible last year, on par with teams like South Carolina and Auburn in points allowed. Stoops was quoted after recent practices complaining about his depth on defense at the Linebacker and Defensive line positions. That's a HUGE issue because Kentucky's only real hope to keep up with the talent at other higher recruited programs is to keep fresh legs on the field. If they can't rotate in and out effective line players, they have no advantages in a man-on-a-man scenario with 12 of the 14 teams in the SEC. Instead, they'll have to resort to ball-hawking, and that was a decent strategy last year as Kentucky forced 20 turnovers. The problem was their own team gave away 22. You can't be that careless with the ball and have a defensive unit this questionable.
Overall, Kentucky looks good on the run, good on the offensive line, good on receivers, and pretty much everything else has the potential to be a disaster. Kentucky could make a bowl game if Barker plays WAY better than I think he's capable of playing, and their defense continues to force other teams into bad decisions with the football. However, if I'm guessing, I think this is another slide back year for Kentucky given the schedule and their issues on defense.
KENTUCKY PREDICTION: 4-8
Thursday, August 18, 2016
Texas A&M SEC Football Preview 2016
Hello there Aggies. I speak from several years of experience living in Texas that I think of yall as that strange cult down in College Station. I had good friends of mine that would head to college for a year at Texas A&M, and come back weirdos. But if there's one thing Texas as a state knows it's football, and A&M put together some great years before hitting the skids in 2014. Now, most of the shine has come off the head coach Kevin Sumlin, several top players have transferred out of the program, and Johnny Football ain't walking through those doors again.
A&M last year was a victim of two things. First the middle of their schedule was insanely brutal. Second, they had 3 QBs get significant snaps, and then two them transfer out. Any time you have to play 3 QBs, something isn't right, and something wasn't right last year when the Aggies fell apart in the second half of the season. Kyle Allen hated it so much at A&M he transferred to Houston. Kyler Murray hated is so much he transferred to Oklahoma. For SEC fans, that would be like two Georgia QBs hating it so much they transferred to Georgia Tech and Tennessee. It's a kick in the face on every level.
And these weren't bad QBs at all. Kyle Allen was actually really good, 2200 yards, 56% completion, 17 TDs and only 7 picks. The interceptions are slightly high, but pretty forgivable in an offense where you're flinging the ball 283 times. And let's remember that 3 of those picks came in one game against Alabama. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was okay and even he left the program. So who is going to play quarterback at A&M? The answer is former Oklahoma player and now transfer Trevor Knight. You may remember Trevor Knight from that time on College Gameday when Katy Perry said he was hot and told him to call her. I would have broke my neck lunging for the phone.
Where was I? Oh right, Trevor Knight is the QB at A&M for one year, which should provide more stability than they saw in 2015. Here's the thing about Trevor, he's got a great arm and a really terrible brain for decision-making. Which leads Trevor to throw a ton of interceptions that you can't really afford in relation to his TDs. That's why he lost the job at OU and ended up at A&M. In his career, Knight has 25 TDs and 19 picks. When you get that dangerously close to 50-50 on the TD-INT rate, you are sprinting toward a bench seat faster than Usain Bolt in the 100m. Trevor will have to be more careful with the football in the SEC, because turning it over to meatgrinder running teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee? They'll just run the ball and keep your butt on the sidelines wondering why you didn't call Katy sooner.
The RB situation at A&M was one guy last year, and he was really REALLY good. Tra Carson went for 1165 yards for an average of 4.8 a carry, with 7 TDs. Yes the TDs are low because A&M didn't have a great offense, but the rushing total puts him 5th in the SEC behind just a few guys like Fournette, Hurd, and Henry. Not bad company for the young man. Guess what though? Like all great things in the SEC last year, it seems the NFL scooped them up quickly. Tra Carson is now on the Bungles, and that means a new RB will have to step up for A&M. The two candidates so far are junior transfer Keith Ford and junior James White. As of now, Sumlin hasn't picked a top guy, and likely won't until mid-way through the season. That's how RB works in the SEC now. You need two to survive.
Keith Ford didn't get the ball much last season, but when he did he was a 5.5 per carry guy with 6 TDs. The yardage overall won't impress you since he had fewer than 80 carries on the year, but he did manage to bust out a 56 yarder against Oklahoma State. James White won't really impress you with his numbers either as he only amassed 196 yards in 2015. If I'm leaning a direction I would think that Ford would get the nod, but we'll see who has a better practice in the fall before A&M starts with UCLA.
Wide Receivers had a field day last year in Sumlin's offense because he loves to throw the ball. Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones all had stellar years in 2015. Kirk and Reynolds were both top 10 in the SEC while Seals-Jones was 21st in receiving. Guess how many are returning? If you said ALL OF THEM you win a cookie. That's right, Trevor Knight is walking into a ready made scenario with some of the best receivers in the SEC. By all rights, if the offensive line can block a lick for him, they should have a vaunted passing attack in 2016.
But how is that offensive line? The answer in 2015 was pretty awful. Awful enough to get their line coach fired. But there's a new sheriff in town and 3 starters have moved on to graduation or the NFL. This is one of those rare scenarios when turnover is good, because the product on the field last year was so bad. The only downside to this turnover is that they are replacing their center, and you know how I feel about new centers in the SEC. That can be a recipe for disaster real quick if they start messing up the assignments under pressure.
On defense, A&M was stronger than I'd seen in a long time last season, but they really lacked some solid guys in the linebacker slots to take the pressure off the secondary. I was especially impressed with the defensive line players like Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. In fact Myles Garrett was one of the few players in college football to have more than 12 sacks on a season, and I think he was the only guy to do that AND force 5 fumbles. That's insane. He's a beast and he's back. So is most of the defense, and they will be coached by again by John Chavis, known for his great defenses at LSU and suddenly making the A&M defense relevant in 2015. I expect good things out of that defense again this year.
All this being said, A&M still plays in the ridiculous field of talent that is the SEC West. And that's no easy gauntlet for anybody, especially a team breaking in a new offensive line. While I think the team will be dramatically improved, I'm not sure it shows up in a championship this season like they may be hoping.
TEXAS A&M PREDICTION: 9-3
A&M last year was a victim of two things. First the middle of their schedule was insanely brutal. Second, they had 3 QBs get significant snaps, and then two them transfer out. Any time you have to play 3 QBs, something isn't right, and something wasn't right last year when the Aggies fell apart in the second half of the season. Kyle Allen hated it so much at A&M he transferred to Houston. Kyler Murray hated is so much he transferred to Oklahoma. For SEC fans, that would be like two Georgia QBs hating it so much they transferred to Georgia Tech and Tennessee. It's a kick in the face on every level.
And these weren't bad QBs at all. Kyle Allen was actually really good, 2200 yards, 56% completion, 17 TDs and only 7 picks. The interceptions are slightly high, but pretty forgivable in an offense where you're flinging the ball 283 times. And let's remember that 3 of those picks came in one game against Alabama. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was okay and even he left the program. So who is going to play quarterback at A&M? The answer is former Oklahoma player and now transfer Trevor Knight. You may remember Trevor Knight from that time on College Gameday when Katy Perry said he was hot and told him to call her. I would have broke my neck lunging for the phone.
Where was I? Oh right, Trevor Knight is the QB at A&M for one year, which should provide more stability than they saw in 2015. Here's the thing about Trevor, he's got a great arm and a really terrible brain for decision-making. Which leads Trevor to throw a ton of interceptions that you can't really afford in relation to his TDs. That's why he lost the job at OU and ended up at A&M. In his career, Knight has 25 TDs and 19 picks. When you get that dangerously close to 50-50 on the TD-INT rate, you are sprinting toward a bench seat faster than Usain Bolt in the 100m. Trevor will have to be more careful with the football in the SEC, because turning it over to meatgrinder running teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee? They'll just run the ball and keep your butt on the sidelines wondering why you didn't call Katy sooner.
The RB situation at A&M was one guy last year, and he was really REALLY good. Tra Carson went for 1165 yards for an average of 4.8 a carry, with 7 TDs. Yes the TDs are low because A&M didn't have a great offense, but the rushing total puts him 5th in the SEC behind just a few guys like Fournette, Hurd, and Henry. Not bad company for the young man. Guess what though? Like all great things in the SEC last year, it seems the NFL scooped them up quickly. Tra Carson is now on the Bungles, and that means a new RB will have to step up for A&M. The two candidates so far are junior transfer Keith Ford and junior James White. As of now, Sumlin hasn't picked a top guy, and likely won't until mid-way through the season. That's how RB works in the SEC now. You need two to survive.
Keith Ford didn't get the ball much last season, but when he did he was a 5.5 per carry guy with 6 TDs. The yardage overall won't impress you since he had fewer than 80 carries on the year, but he did manage to bust out a 56 yarder against Oklahoma State. James White won't really impress you with his numbers either as he only amassed 196 yards in 2015. If I'm leaning a direction I would think that Ford would get the nod, but we'll see who has a better practice in the fall before A&M starts with UCLA.
Wide Receivers had a field day last year in Sumlin's offense because he loves to throw the ball. Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones all had stellar years in 2015. Kirk and Reynolds were both top 10 in the SEC while Seals-Jones was 21st in receiving. Guess how many are returning? If you said ALL OF THEM you win a cookie. That's right, Trevor Knight is walking into a ready made scenario with some of the best receivers in the SEC. By all rights, if the offensive line can block a lick for him, they should have a vaunted passing attack in 2016.
But how is that offensive line? The answer in 2015 was pretty awful. Awful enough to get their line coach fired. But there's a new sheriff in town and 3 starters have moved on to graduation or the NFL. This is one of those rare scenarios when turnover is good, because the product on the field last year was so bad. The only downside to this turnover is that they are replacing their center, and you know how I feel about new centers in the SEC. That can be a recipe for disaster real quick if they start messing up the assignments under pressure.
On defense, A&M was stronger than I'd seen in a long time last season, but they really lacked some solid guys in the linebacker slots to take the pressure off the secondary. I was especially impressed with the defensive line players like Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. In fact Myles Garrett was one of the few players in college football to have more than 12 sacks on a season, and I think he was the only guy to do that AND force 5 fumbles. That's insane. He's a beast and he's back. So is most of the defense, and they will be coached by again by John Chavis, known for his great defenses at LSU and suddenly making the A&M defense relevant in 2015. I expect good things out of that defense again this year.
All this being said, A&M still plays in the ridiculous field of talent that is the SEC West. And that's no easy gauntlet for anybody, especially a team breaking in a new offensive line. While I think the team will be dramatically improved, I'm not sure it shows up in a championship this season like they may be hoping.
TEXAS A&M PREDICTION: 9-3
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Missouri SEC Football 2016 Preview
Ah Missouri, or Mizzou to the fans. You are to the SEC what the Tennessee Titans are to the NFL, with slightly more success. You're the team that every forgets when listing teams, then goes, "Oh yeah, and Missouri I guess." And yet, you've won the SEC East twice, which is both an achievement for the school, and a horrific indictment of that half of the conference. But none of that matters if Mizzou can pull off the ultimate upset one day, and win the SEC outright. South Carolina has never done it. Arkansas, Vandy, and A&M have never done it. Hell, in the few years you've been here you already have more East titles than Kentucky, Vandy, and South Carolina have had EVER. So when I kid you, Mizzou, know I do it with more respect than I have for any of those other schools.
Last year was a bad year for Missouri by almost any standard. They finished 5-7 overall, missing out on a bowl game, and went 1-7 in the conference. That's a precipitous fall from grace considering they were playing in the Georgia Dome for the title in years prior. Well for one thing, the leading QB Maty Mauk got suspended mid-season, and then subsequently dismissed from the team after the season was over. Considering that Mauk had 4000 yards and was a big part of the two prior East titles, that was a killer blow. Freshman Drew Lock attempted to step in mid-season against South Carolina, and did well to lead them to a victory. Then everyone remember that South Carolina was the worst team in the league. For the rest of Lock's starts, he got smashed in the face losing everything except a token victory against BYU.
Thankfully, Missouri is one of the few programs where I don't have to talk about a QB controversy. There's a 95% chance that now sophomore Drew Lock starts the season. I would expect growth this season out of Lock, who was sort of thrown into the deep end last year with no real safety net. As a result, he looked out of sorts, threw 8 picks to 4 TDs, and completed less than 50% of his passes. Will Lock get better? Honestly, if he got worse he'd get benched mid-year. I can't tell how much of Lock's problems were just freshman jitters, and how much of it is simply a lack of talent. However, when you can't score more than 3 points on Vandy? I have serious questions about your ability to lead a team at all. Lock will have a ton to prove in 2016 if Missouri wants to ride behind him as their lead QB.
In the skills department, Ish Witter and Russell Hansbrough were the two leaders in rushing yards last season and while Witter will return for this season, Hansbrough is gone to the NFL. The weird thing about Missouri's offense is that despite the QB issues, they don't run a lot. Their run/pass split was almost 50/50 with about a 20 play difference in favor of the rush. And with RB Trevon Walters getting dismissed from the team, it's basically Ish and a bunch of other dudes. Oh but wait, don't forget about graduate and JUCO transfers this year like Alex Ross, who will be looking to get some reps at RB as well. They are doing everything they can to overhaul this offense because it was so bad in 2015.
On the WR side nobody had a great year because Locke was the QB, but even so J'Mon Moore, Nate Brown, and Wesley Leftwich were the top targets. Leftwich went to the NFL but didn't get drafted to my knowledge. That leaves the WR duties to leaders Moore and Brown, who should provide a good 1-2 punch is Lock can improve his accuracy, along with graduate transfer Chris Black from Alabama.
The real strength of Missouri was their defense last year. In fact, Mizzou was 5th in the nation in points allowed, which should really highlight exactly how horrific their offense was. If Missouri could have scored on average 21 points a game? They probably have a 10 win season. Instead, they were the 2nd worst offense in America at 127th on the year. So what happened to all the defensive talent from 2015?
Mizzou lost All SEC Linebacker Kentrell Brothers to the NFL, who totalled the most tackles in all of FBS with 152 on the season, along with their starting guard and center from the offensive line. That means most of the defensive talent from Missouri is still intact for 2016, which should scare the hell out of any offense. Also, due to their head coach retiring now their former defensive coordinator Barry Odom to run the program. If anything, I expect the defense to get stronger.
Then there's the offensive line. Good lord the line. They graduated or promoted everybody of consequence to the NFL, and there's absolutely no real experience anywhere on this offensive line. The year could be a complete mess in the trenches specifically due to this issue. I always say the SEC is won in the trenches, and if that's truly the case Mizzouri will be stellar on defense again, and then destroyed on offense as they struggle to get into field goal range.
Honestly, besides the defense there are WAY too many questions on this Missouri team. They don't know if they have a real QB, they don't know anything about their offensive line, and they are trying to supplement their skill positions with transfer players. It's all setting up for a massive disappointment unless a lot of younger players really step it up and overperform, or the defense turns into the 2015 Broncos and scores 14 points a game off turnovers. It might happen. It probably won't. But I do think they can squeeze out a bowl eligible season thanks to a favorable schedule.
MISSOURI PREDICTION: 6-6
Last year was a bad year for Missouri by almost any standard. They finished 5-7 overall, missing out on a bowl game, and went 1-7 in the conference. That's a precipitous fall from grace considering they were playing in the Georgia Dome for the title in years prior. Well for one thing, the leading QB Maty Mauk got suspended mid-season, and then subsequently dismissed from the team after the season was over. Considering that Mauk had 4000 yards and was a big part of the two prior East titles, that was a killer blow. Freshman Drew Lock attempted to step in mid-season against South Carolina, and did well to lead them to a victory. Then everyone remember that South Carolina was the worst team in the league. For the rest of Lock's starts, he got smashed in the face losing everything except a token victory against BYU.
Thankfully, Missouri is one of the few programs where I don't have to talk about a QB controversy. There's a 95% chance that now sophomore Drew Lock starts the season. I would expect growth this season out of Lock, who was sort of thrown into the deep end last year with no real safety net. As a result, he looked out of sorts, threw 8 picks to 4 TDs, and completed less than 50% of his passes. Will Lock get better? Honestly, if he got worse he'd get benched mid-year. I can't tell how much of Lock's problems were just freshman jitters, and how much of it is simply a lack of talent. However, when you can't score more than 3 points on Vandy? I have serious questions about your ability to lead a team at all. Lock will have a ton to prove in 2016 if Missouri wants to ride behind him as their lead QB.
In the skills department, Ish Witter and Russell Hansbrough were the two leaders in rushing yards last season and while Witter will return for this season, Hansbrough is gone to the NFL. The weird thing about Missouri's offense is that despite the QB issues, they don't run a lot. Their run/pass split was almost 50/50 with about a 20 play difference in favor of the rush. And with RB Trevon Walters getting dismissed from the team, it's basically Ish and a bunch of other dudes. Oh but wait, don't forget about graduate and JUCO transfers this year like Alex Ross, who will be looking to get some reps at RB as well. They are doing everything they can to overhaul this offense because it was so bad in 2015.
On the WR side nobody had a great year because Locke was the QB, but even so J'Mon Moore, Nate Brown, and Wesley Leftwich were the top targets. Leftwich went to the NFL but didn't get drafted to my knowledge. That leaves the WR duties to leaders Moore and Brown, who should provide a good 1-2 punch is Lock can improve his accuracy, along with graduate transfer Chris Black from Alabama.
The real strength of Missouri was their defense last year. In fact, Mizzou was 5th in the nation in points allowed, which should really highlight exactly how horrific their offense was. If Missouri could have scored on average 21 points a game? They probably have a 10 win season. Instead, they were the 2nd worst offense in America at 127th on the year. So what happened to all the defensive talent from 2015?
Mizzou lost All SEC Linebacker Kentrell Brothers to the NFL, who totalled the most tackles in all of FBS with 152 on the season, along with their starting guard and center from the offensive line. That means most of the defensive talent from Missouri is still intact for 2016, which should scare the hell out of any offense. Also, due to their head coach retiring now their former defensive coordinator Barry Odom to run the program. If anything, I expect the defense to get stronger.
Then there's the offensive line. Good lord the line. They graduated or promoted everybody of consequence to the NFL, and there's absolutely no real experience anywhere on this offensive line. The year could be a complete mess in the trenches specifically due to this issue. I always say the SEC is won in the trenches, and if that's truly the case Mizzouri will be stellar on defense again, and then destroyed on offense as they struggle to get into field goal range.
Honestly, besides the defense there are WAY too many questions on this Missouri team. They don't know if they have a real QB, they don't know anything about their offensive line, and they are trying to supplement their skill positions with transfer players. It's all setting up for a massive disappointment unless a lot of younger players really step it up and overperform, or the defense turns into the 2015 Broncos and scores 14 points a game off turnovers. It might happen. It probably won't. But I do think they can squeeze out a bowl eligible season thanks to a favorable schedule.
MISSOURI PREDICTION: 6-6
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Auburn SEC Football Preview 2016
Yesterday, I covered the worst team in the East. Today I cover the worst team in the West from last season, the Auburn Tigers. The funniest part to me about last season was how much hype surrounded the Auburn program in the preseason. If you want a good laugh, go and look at the preseason rankings and articles written about the Auburn program before 2015 started. Auburn was #6 in the nation in rankings, and Jeremy Johnson was projected as a front-runner for the Heisman trophy.
Here's the punchline: Auburn finished 7-6 and 2-6 in the conference. Oh and Jeremy Johnson was a front-runner in bagging groceries at Kroger, because he got benched mid-season for Sean White, and then benched again for the bowl game. Auburn ended up losing to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and of course Alabama. They ended up winning against Louisville, San Jose State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Idaho, and Jacksonville State in OT. That's right, and they should have lost to Jacksonville State, except for a shanked Jacksonville punt late in the 4th quarter that gave Auburn a short field for an easy TD to tie the game and take it to OT.
I've seen some overrated press for a team in my day, but Auburn really takes the crap-cake from 2015 in terms of how much the media bought into a bad program with a bad QB. The Gus Malzahn offense really couldn't score points, and that's what he was known for in his career. With an average of 27.5 points per game, Auburn was 74th in CFB, which should really tell you about how bad defenses have gotten over the last few years. But just as bad was the fact Auburn gave up 26 points a game on defense, which was 54th in CFB and 11th in the SEC. Behind the likes of A&M and Vanderbilt.
Now, I enjoy kicking Auburn when they are down as much as the next guy since I'm a Georgia fan, but I'm also a gambler and incredibly objective about how these teams are slated to play when my money is on the line. And it will be no different here as we look at Auburn in 2016, where I would expect this is a make or break year for everybody on their coaching staff.
The best thing Auburn had last year was Peyton Barber, the workload RB who carried over 1000 yards on 238 carries with 13 TDs. They also had Jovon Robinson who averaged over 5 yards a carry on 100+ carries as well during the season. The running game was strong with both of those guys, but Peyton Barber left for the greener pastures of the NFL, leaving the majority of carries to Jovon. But wait, Jovon Robinson got dismissed from the team before Fall camp even started. Uh-oh. That's uh...less than ideal. Who the hell is going to run the ball with the two best guys off the team?
The running duties will fall by default to sophomore RB Kerryon Johnson, who had a limited amount of carries in 2015 with around 50 total for 200+ yards. But even with those limited carries Johnson found the endzone 3 times. That's good, because in Gus Malzahn's offense, running the ball is paramount. In fact, Auburn as a team had 587 rushes last year in 13 games. That averages out to about 45 carries a game. Auburn goes fast and they love to run, which means those carries have to get split between the backs and usually the QB. If you can't run, you can't play for Gus. As long as Gus still has a job.
Remember what I said in the Vandy article about "Quarterback controversy?" Get ready for a ton of those around the league, and Auburn is no different. Auburn has three options they can turn to, two of which are the same bad choices as last season: Jeremy Johnson and Sean White. The third option is a transfer named John Franklin III, and you know 9 times out of 10 a guy with a number after his name has to be a jerk. So it's not looking great in terms of choices for Auburn with the devils you know, and the devil you don't. My guess is that Jeremy Johnson will get most of the playing time, because Johnson has proven he can make plays before, while Sean White has proven he can throw more interceptions than TDs. Heck, knowing Auburn they'll be lucky if all of them stay eligible this year.
At WR, Auburn's best receiver last year was Ricardo Louis with 716 yards on 46 catches. Nobody else was even close. The next best guy was Melvin Ray with 279 yards on 20 catches. But like many pieces of bad news, the hits keep on coming for Auburn. Ricardo Louis and Melvin Ray both went on to the NFL, leaving the WR duties to a bunch of possible freshman candidates. And like I've said before, nothing makes a QB battle tougher than throwing to unproven targets. Marcus Davis, Tony Stevens, and David Smith are all among the names you may hear in the Auburn WR battle. We'll see as the season progresses if any of them pan out.
What about the offensive line though? At least that has a chance at improving right? The answer is a resounding YES. If there's anything the Auburn offense can hang their hat on (and there isn't much) it's their offensive line this year. They have two returning guards in Alex Kozan and Braden Smith, both of whom are key positions in the running game. Prior center Austin Golson is set to move over to tackle, and a senior named Xavier Dampeer (who has a vampire name) will step in at center. Overall, if Auburn can't run behind this line, they should pack up every skill player they have, fire the head coach, and start over the program.
Besides the offensive line, this Auburn program is going to rely on their defense more than ever. Gus Malzahn was recently quoted at SEC Media days saying, "I think we got a chance to have one of the best, if not the best, defenses we've had at my time at Auburn, which I think is very important."
Is that coachspeak or the truth? Auburn's defense certainly improved in the bowl game, holding Memphis to 10 points, but that's months of preparation against Memphis who, no disrespect, isn't on par with SEC West talent. And Auburn has to play in the West for the majority of their games. I mean Gus even said how they improved late in the year, but he must have forgotten about giving up 34 points to Idaho in his 11th game. What I can tell you is that Auburn is on their 4th defensive coordinator in 5 years, and his name is Kevin Steele. I like defense coaches with names that sound like metal. HARD AS STEELE. Somebody make shirts.
One thing Steele will have to shore up is the Auburn defensive line. Auburn was 11th in the SEC against the pass, but was tied for 3rd in the conference in interceptions. Why the disparity? Well, Auburn got almost zero pressure on the QB that's why. With only 19 sacks all season, they finished 102nd in college football in sacks. Oh and their defensive line finished 11th in the conference in run defense as well. Basically, the Tigers were terrible up front on defense which is the ultimate mortal sin in the SEC. If they can't stop the run or sack the QB in 2016? They'll finish dead last again.
Taking a look at the schedule for Auburn, they get kicked in the face right out of the gate with an opener against Clemson. I don't expect that to go well. They get a week off against Arkansas State, then follow that up with A&M and LSU back to back. It doesn't get much easier as they face the gauntlet of Western opponents, plus Georgia and Vandy out of the East. Which means I think Auburn will be lucky to get bowl eligible again, and probably suffer through another bad season that likely gets Malzahn his walking papers.
AUBURN PREDICTION: 6-6
Here's the punchline: Auburn finished 7-6 and 2-6 in the conference. Oh and Jeremy Johnson was a front-runner in bagging groceries at Kroger, because he got benched mid-season for Sean White, and then benched again for the bowl game. Auburn ended up losing to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and of course Alabama. They ended up winning against Louisville, San Jose State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Idaho, and Jacksonville State in OT. That's right, and they should have lost to Jacksonville State, except for a shanked Jacksonville punt late in the 4th quarter that gave Auburn a short field for an easy TD to tie the game and take it to OT.
I've seen some overrated press for a team in my day, but Auburn really takes the crap-cake from 2015 in terms of how much the media bought into a bad program with a bad QB. The Gus Malzahn offense really couldn't score points, and that's what he was known for in his career. With an average of 27.5 points per game, Auburn was 74th in CFB, which should really tell you about how bad defenses have gotten over the last few years. But just as bad was the fact Auburn gave up 26 points a game on defense, which was 54th in CFB and 11th in the SEC. Behind the likes of A&M and Vanderbilt.
Now, I enjoy kicking Auburn when they are down as much as the next guy since I'm a Georgia fan, but I'm also a gambler and incredibly objective about how these teams are slated to play when my money is on the line. And it will be no different here as we look at Auburn in 2016, where I would expect this is a make or break year for everybody on their coaching staff.
The best thing Auburn had last year was Peyton Barber, the workload RB who carried over 1000 yards on 238 carries with 13 TDs. They also had Jovon Robinson who averaged over 5 yards a carry on 100+ carries as well during the season. The running game was strong with both of those guys, but Peyton Barber left for the greener pastures of the NFL, leaving the majority of carries to Jovon. But wait, Jovon Robinson got dismissed from the team before Fall camp even started. Uh-oh. That's uh...less than ideal. Who the hell is going to run the ball with the two best guys off the team?
The running duties will fall by default to sophomore RB Kerryon Johnson, who had a limited amount of carries in 2015 with around 50 total for 200+ yards. But even with those limited carries Johnson found the endzone 3 times. That's good, because in Gus Malzahn's offense, running the ball is paramount. In fact, Auburn as a team had 587 rushes last year in 13 games. That averages out to about 45 carries a game. Auburn goes fast and they love to run, which means those carries have to get split between the backs and usually the QB. If you can't run, you can't play for Gus. As long as Gus still has a job.
Remember what I said in the Vandy article about "Quarterback controversy?" Get ready for a ton of those around the league, and Auburn is no different. Auburn has three options they can turn to, two of which are the same bad choices as last season: Jeremy Johnson and Sean White. The third option is a transfer named John Franklin III, and you know 9 times out of 10 a guy with a number after his name has to be a jerk. So it's not looking great in terms of choices for Auburn with the devils you know, and the devil you don't. My guess is that Jeremy Johnson will get most of the playing time, because Johnson has proven he can make plays before, while Sean White has proven he can throw more interceptions than TDs. Heck, knowing Auburn they'll be lucky if all of them stay eligible this year.
At WR, Auburn's best receiver last year was Ricardo Louis with 716 yards on 46 catches. Nobody else was even close. The next best guy was Melvin Ray with 279 yards on 20 catches. But like many pieces of bad news, the hits keep on coming for Auburn. Ricardo Louis and Melvin Ray both went on to the NFL, leaving the WR duties to a bunch of possible freshman candidates. And like I've said before, nothing makes a QB battle tougher than throwing to unproven targets. Marcus Davis, Tony Stevens, and David Smith are all among the names you may hear in the Auburn WR battle. We'll see as the season progresses if any of them pan out.
What about the offensive line though? At least that has a chance at improving right? The answer is a resounding YES. If there's anything the Auburn offense can hang their hat on (and there isn't much) it's their offensive line this year. They have two returning guards in Alex Kozan and Braden Smith, both of whom are key positions in the running game. Prior center Austin Golson is set to move over to tackle, and a senior named Xavier Dampeer (who has a vampire name) will step in at center. Overall, if Auburn can't run behind this line, they should pack up every skill player they have, fire the head coach, and start over the program.
Besides the offensive line, this Auburn program is going to rely on their defense more than ever. Gus Malzahn was recently quoted at SEC Media days saying, "I think we got a chance to have one of the best, if not the best, defenses we've had at my time at Auburn, which I think is very important."
Is that coachspeak or the truth? Auburn's defense certainly improved in the bowl game, holding Memphis to 10 points, but that's months of preparation against Memphis who, no disrespect, isn't on par with SEC West talent. And Auburn has to play in the West for the majority of their games. I mean Gus even said how they improved late in the year, but he must have forgotten about giving up 34 points to Idaho in his 11th game. What I can tell you is that Auburn is on their 4th defensive coordinator in 5 years, and his name is Kevin Steele. I like defense coaches with names that sound like metal. HARD AS STEELE. Somebody make shirts.
One thing Steele will have to shore up is the Auburn defensive line. Auburn was 11th in the SEC against the pass, but was tied for 3rd in the conference in interceptions. Why the disparity? Well, Auburn got almost zero pressure on the QB that's why. With only 19 sacks all season, they finished 102nd in college football in sacks. Oh and their defensive line finished 11th in the conference in run defense as well. Basically, the Tigers were terrible up front on defense which is the ultimate mortal sin in the SEC. If they can't stop the run or sack the QB in 2016? They'll finish dead last again.
Taking a look at the schedule for Auburn, they get kicked in the face right out of the gate with an opener against Clemson. I don't expect that to go well. They get a week off against Arkansas State, then follow that up with A&M and LSU back to back. It doesn't get much easier as they face the gauntlet of Western opponents, plus Georgia and Vandy out of the East. Which means I think Auburn will be lucky to get bowl eligible again, and probably suffer through another bad season that likely gets Malzahn his walking papers.
AUBURN PREDICTION: 6-6
Monday, August 15, 2016
South Carolina SEC Football Preview 2016
Yes, it's that time again. I'm bringing back the site even though I ran out of steam last year with a new plan and a new focus. This time I'll be doing season preview for all of the SEC teams leading up to the season, and then during the week I'll pick one major game to review the film and give you my impressions. Also, as usual I'll be giving you my SEC picks against the spread for fun. Last year I had issues with my top picks. Maybe this year I'll do a little better? Who knows, it's gambling.
Anyway I'll start with the bottom of the Eastern division in South Carolina, who finished with an awful 3-9 record last year and their head coach quit mid-season. So Steve Spurrier has retired, and in his place is the head coach that nobody wanted, Will Muschamp. You may remember Muschamp from that time he completely screwed up the Florida football program and got fired. There is literally no way in my mind that Will Muschamp was the top candidate for this job at South Carolina, but the search kept going on and on until eventually they just picked him. Can Muschamp coach? I think Florida proved that he can coach a defense. The other side of the ball is up for serious debate.
Get used to one thing in these previews, and that's the phrase "Quarterback controversy" because it's going to appear a lot in the SEC this year. At a time when great college QBs are getting rarer across the land (seriously, just look at who got drafted in the top spots last year), the SEC is probably one of the worst leagues when it comes to QB play. If you pulled up the top passing teams in college football last year by yardage, only 2 SEC teams appeared in the top 25. Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Oh and guess what? Mississippi State's QB graduated to the NFL. So that leaves Mr. Chad Kelly as the only guy with a big passing arm in the SEC that's coming back.
What does that mean for South Carolina? Last year they barely had a QB as they switched constantly between Perry Orth, Lorenzo Nunez, and Connor Mitch. It would be a stretch to call any of them good QBs. And it kept getting worse as the year went on since Orth got the majority of the snaps, but couldn't stop the turnovers. What does that mean for this year? Perry Orth is a senior and still in the battle for the top job, which should excite exactly nobody. The other guys is a freshman, Brandon McIlwain, who has been a top performer in the spring according to several sources.
Personally, if I'm making the decision I'm not starting Orth again. I've seen a season of Orth, and he finished with sub-2000 yards, 12 TDs, 9 picks, and he was throwing to one of the best receivers that South Carolina has ever had in Pharoh Cooper who is now in the NFL. Even that wasn't enough to work out that passing game. Also, South Carolina should have ZERO illusions about this season. They are working out a new coach, likely a new QB, almost all new receivers, and an entirely revamped defense scheme. This isn't a season to win the SEC. They should send out a new QB who can grow with this coach and these players, taking his lumps in a season South Carolina will likely not compete.
What will work in South Carolina's favor is their returning RB David Williams, who likely will get more carries than last season where he averaged 3.5 a carry behind a sub-par offensive line. He only got about 10 carries a game because Brandon Wilds took most of the action on his way to the NFL. Now Williams is set to be the prime guy, but there will be some pressure from young upstart freshman AJ Turner as well. South Carolina doesn't really run just one RB, like most teams in the SEC, so I expect some split carries but with Williams getting the lion's share if he can perform.
In the WR department, you're looking at the loss of Pharoh Cooper hitting the team very hard, as he had 973 yards and 66 catches last year with 8 TDs. The next closest guy was Jerell Adams with 28 catches and 421 yards with 3 TDs. Oh but wait, Adams went to the NFL too. Bad luck there. So who's left? Yeah that would be Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards (Edwards is a freshman). In fact there are four freshman receivers who may get time behind Samuel, who was out with a hamstring injury in 2015, which left him with severely reduced numbers. Still, Samuel is a sophomore, so the WR core is EXTREMELY young, which would be a huge problem for even a veteran QB.
On the offensive line, South Carolina returns their center Alan Knott, which is probably the biggest deal on the whole team. Why? Because centers control the blocking scheme, and help younger offensive lineman get in the right areas. Since South Carolina only returns two starters on the line, the name of the game is going to be learn quick, or get run over. I don't expect South Carolina to have a top line this year, which will make it even harder on the RB and QB situation for the Gamecocks.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Gamecocks were the worst in the SEC last year in almost every metric. They gave up the most points, they gave up the most yards, but they were 5th in the league in turnovers gained. So the team was obviously ball-hawking, making up the for the fact they couldn't stop a kitten with a cold. That being said, one of their best players last year was Skai Moore, an incredibly talented LB who is now out for the whole season with a disc injury to his neck. And there really isn't a ton of proposed upside for this defense. The only thing they have going for them is that Will Muschamp is the coach, and he rarely puts a terrible defensive product on the field. The Gamecock team this year may even test Muschamps defensive limits.
As for the predictions, I think South Carolina will be lucky to get 6 wins this year. They have two guaranteed wins in UMASS and Western Carolina (you would think) but beyond that? Even Vandy might give this team a run for their money. And let's not forget that South Carolina lost to The Citadel last year. So, anything is possible if the wheels really come off the wagon, and with Muschamp they just might.
SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION: 5-7
Anyway I'll start with the bottom of the Eastern division in South Carolina, who finished with an awful 3-9 record last year and their head coach quit mid-season. So Steve Spurrier has retired, and in his place is the head coach that nobody wanted, Will Muschamp. You may remember Muschamp from that time he completely screwed up the Florida football program and got fired. There is literally no way in my mind that Will Muschamp was the top candidate for this job at South Carolina, but the search kept going on and on until eventually they just picked him. Can Muschamp coach? I think Florida proved that he can coach a defense. The other side of the ball is up for serious debate.
Get used to one thing in these previews, and that's the phrase "Quarterback controversy" because it's going to appear a lot in the SEC this year. At a time when great college QBs are getting rarer across the land (seriously, just look at who got drafted in the top spots last year), the SEC is probably one of the worst leagues when it comes to QB play. If you pulled up the top passing teams in college football last year by yardage, only 2 SEC teams appeared in the top 25. Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Oh and guess what? Mississippi State's QB graduated to the NFL. So that leaves Mr. Chad Kelly as the only guy with a big passing arm in the SEC that's coming back.
What does that mean for South Carolina? Last year they barely had a QB as they switched constantly between Perry Orth, Lorenzo Nunez, and Connor Mitch. It would be a stretch to call any of them good QBs. And it kept getting worse as the year went on since Orth got the majority of the snaps, but couldn't stop the turnovers. What does that mean for this year? Perry Orth is a senior and still in the battle for the top job, which should excite exactly nobody. The other guys is a freshman, Brandon McIlwain, who has been a top performer in the spring according to several sources.
Personally, if I'm making the decision I'm not starting Orth again. I've seen a season of Orth, and he finished with sub-2000 yards, 12 TDs, 9 picks, and he was throwing to one of the best receivers that South Carolina has ever had in Pharoh Cooper who is now in the NFL. Even that wasn't enough to work out that passing game. Also, South Carolina should have ZERO illusions about this season. They are working out a new coach, likely a new QB, almost all new receivers, and an entirely revamped defense scheme. This isn't a season to win the SEC. They should send out a new QB who can grow with this coach and these players, taking his lumps in a season South Carolina will likely not compete.
What will work in South Carolina's favor is their returning RB David Williams, who likely will get more carries than last season where he averaged 3.5 a carry behind a sub-par offensive line. He only got about 10 carries a game because Brandon Wilds took most of the action on his way to the NFL. Now Williams is set to be the prime guy, but there will be some pressure from young upstart freshman AJ Turner as well. South Carolina doesn't really run just one RB, like most teams in the SEC, so I expect some split carries but with Williams getting the lion's share if he can perform.
In the WR department, you're looking at the loss of Pharoh Cooper hitting the team very hard, as he had 973 yards and 66 catches last year with 8 TDs. The next closest guy was Jerell Adams with 28 catches and 421 yards with 3 TDs. Oh but wait, Adams went to the NFL too. Bad luck there. So who's left? Yeah that would be Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards (Edwards is a freshman). In fact there are four freshman receivers who may get time behind Samuel, who was out with a hamstring injury in 2015, which left him with severely reduced numbers. Still, Samuel is a sophomore, so the WR core is EXTREMELY young, which would be a huge problem for even a veteran QB.
On the offensive line, South Carolina returns their center Alan Knott, which is probably the biggest deal on the whole team. Why? Because centers control the blocking scheme, and help younger offensive lineman get in the right areas. Since South Carolina only returns two starters on the line, the name of the game is going to be learn quick, or get run over. I don't expect South Carolina to have a top line this year, which will make it even harder on the RB and QB situation for the Gamecocks.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Gamecocks were the worst in the SEC last year in almost every metric. They gave up the most points, they gave up the most yards, but they were 5th in the league in turnovers gained. So the team was obviously ball-hawking, making up the for the fact they couldn't stop a kitten with a cold. That being said, one of their best players last year was Skai Moore, an incredibly talented LB who is now out for the whole season with a disc injury to his neck. And there really isn't a ton of proposed upside for this defense. The only thing they have going for them is that Will Muschamp is the coach, and he rarely puts a terrible defensive product on the field. The Gamecock team this year may even test Muschamps defensive limits.
As for the predictions, I think South Carolina will be lucky to get 6 wins this year. They have two guaranteed wins in UMASS and Western Carolina (you would think) but beyond that? Even Vandy might give this team a run for their money. And let's not forget that South Carolina lost to The Citadel last year. So, anything is possible if the wheels really come off the wagon, and with Muschamp they just might.
SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION: 5-7
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