Last week I went 2-2 on the picks, so I'm still 2 units down on the season so far. Stupid Kentucky really let me down late against Florida. That was 2 points from getting into the number. Oh well. On to this week where we're stepping it up a notch. We're finally getting into some 2 unit plays! I'll also offer a contrarian pick if you're a house-style bettor.
2 Unit Plays:
LSU v. Syracuse +23.5 : I like LSU -23.5 in the game. Syracuse has played nobody of consequence, so their points per game is highly inflated. Defensively, Syracuse also hasn't seen a thing like LSU yet. What the Tigers did to Auburn? That's a small taste of how ugly this can get. No trap here, LSU has Eastern Michigan as home next week, so all their focus can go on making a statement in New York.
Tennessee v. Florida -1.5 : I like TENNESSEE +1.5 in this game. Tennessee is getting points on the road against a Florida team that can't score points. Tennessee's defense is the best that Florida has seen this year, and Tennessee has already been battle tested against OU. What's more important? This is a career-defining game for Butch Jones and he knows it. I love desperate teams with everything on the line.
1 Unit Plays:
Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +25 : I like VANDERBILT +25 in this game. You've watched Ole Miss blast a few teams this year, and Vandy isn't that great, but they do a good job holding things close when a large spread is on the line. Ole Miss has Florida on the road next, and no matter how much they try, they'll already be looking past Vandy coming off their high against Alabama.
Kentucky v. Missouri +2.5 : I like KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. It's at home, Kentucky has played well so far this year, and Mizzou is now 0-3 ATS after being great on the road for several years prior. Missouri is struggling against bad teams, and barely edging out UCONN last week doesn't inspire confidence. I may be a prisoner of the moment here, but it's worth a unit.
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -7.5 : I like TEXAS A&M -7.5 in this game. Were it just 7 points, I'd probably put 2 units on this, but the hook worries me a little. Not enough to not play it, because A&M is miles better than anything Arkansas has played, and they lost to Toledo.
Contrarian Pick:
Auburn v. MS State +1.5 : I like AUBURN -1.5 in this game. If you're a contrarian bettor, this might be a good value play for you. The universe would bet against Auburn right now given what we saw in their prior 3 games. They are 0-3 ATS, they look like garbage, and you'd think they would be huge underdogs. But Vegas is Vegas, and this line looks way off. Plus we have a QB change. They know something is up, and when that happens you should bet with the house instead of the public.
Coinflip games:
Alabama v. Louisiana-Monre +37.5 : ALABAMA -37.5
South Carolina v. UCF +14.5 : SOUTH CAROLINA -14.5
Georgia is unlined this week against Southern, as it should be for that crap game.
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Ole Miss Rebels v. Alabama Crimson Tide: Week 3 Analysis
I watched this game mostly live on Saturday night until 1:30AM, then I loaded it back up again today after 4 days of break in between because I didn't want my live impressions to overwhelm my second go-through on the tape. Several things arise out of the tape that totally countered my first impression of the game.
My first impression was that Ole Miss looked extremely potent passing the ball, and that Alabama shot itself in the foot over and over with turnovers. And that's the impression that I heard most people give me when they recapped the game. Most Alabama fans believed they would have won except for the stupid turnovers, and possibly starting one QB instead of two QBs, but that was about it. Most Ole Miss fans I talked to were extremely impressed with the offense, but were wary of how they kept giving Alabama chance after chance when they didn't have to.
Is Alabama in as bad of a situation as the media would make it out to be? Absolutely not. You'd be a fool to look at this tape and walk away thinking that Alabama still can't compete for an SEC Title right now. However, they have certain deficiencies that I warned about in their game against Wisconsin, and Ole Miss was exactly the type of team to pounce on those problems. Mainly, I'm talking about the linebacker and secondary play for Alabama, which isn't up to their usual high-caliber. More on that later.
Let's address the obvious first, the two fumbles on kickoffs absolutely put Alabama on the wrong foot. But even without those, it was the decision by the Alabama coaching staff to inexplicably start #18 Cooper Bateman instead of Jake Coker. I still have no idea what they were thinking. The offense went nowhere under Bateman for the first quarter and a half of the game. They had only 3 points, and finally Bateman was yanked for Coker after he threw a pick tied 3-3 with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. Again, let me point out that even with the first fumble, and the pick there, it was still just 3-3. But Ole Miss went for the jugular on 4th and goal on that next drive, and scored the first TD of the game. That's when the second fumble on the kickoff really killed Alabama's momentum. Ole Miss would score again on QB Chad Kelly's scramble to make it 17-3 Ole Miss.
That's when Coker came into the game. He led the team down the field in their next drive to make it 17-10 Ole Miss at the half. I honestly forgot it was that close, but it was only a 7 point game. So with the game on the line, and Ole Miss getting the ball. What happened? One of the freakiest plays you'll see in college football. The snap goes over Chad Kelly's head, he tips it in the air, picks it off the ground, and heaves it down the field right as he's hit. The ball goes off an Alabama player's head, bounces in the air to an Ole Miss receiver, who then tears down the field for a TD. It was absurd. Once I saw that play, Hell ANYBODY who saw that play, immediately thought the same thing: This is Ole Miss's day.
The Alabama offense stalled again and again, allowing Ole Miss two more FGs, making it 30-17, but Alabama rallied back with a TD drive of their own to make it 30-24. Again, Alabama is well within striking distance, but that's where another defensive breakdown happened. On a scramble to the right, #26 freshman DB Marlon Humphrey pulled off his coverage on Cody Core to try and get the QB, and Chad Kelly threw over the top of him for a 76 yard wide open TD run. Nobody could stop Core once he caught the ball because Humphrey was supposed to be the last line of defense on that play. It was a bad read and one that really cost the Tide. It's also not the first time I've pointed out Humphrey because he's young and looks unsteady out there. He's a 5-star recruit who had really high hopes dumped on him early, but he's getting exposed in the backfield quite often from what I'm seeing. I counted a few whiffed tackles to go along with getting beat on that key play.
This points out a bigger problem with the Alabama DBs, they are young and in the case of their best cover guy #5 Cyrus Jones, he's short at only 5'10". They put Jones on 6'3" WR #1 Laquon Treadwell, who abused him on several plays for 5 catches, 80 yards, and 1 TD. And that was probably a good job on a guy like Treadwell, but it's still not good enough for an Alabama defense that gave up over 40 points in the game. Interestingly, if you look at the tackles by position on the team, the number one tackler is LB Reggie Ragland. That makes sense as he's probably the most talented player outside of the Alabama front four, and he's projected right now as a 2nd round draft pick. However, if you look at the top 3 tacklers behind him? It's all DBs. Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, and Geno Matias-Smith. 35.5 tackles between all of them, but only 1.5 for losses. You know why DBs are making so many tackles? Because teams realize they can't run on you, and they are going to pick on your secondary. Let alone how many bad angles and missed tackles I saw in this game that I normally never see out of a Nick Saban defense.
Coker made two mistakes late, both bad interceptions with the game on the line. The first was a terrible throw, the second was because his center screwed up a key block and got Coker crushed as he unleashed a deep ball. But even so, Coker doesn't need to be throwing deep balls. In fact, Alabama getting as close as they were shouldn't have been throwing at all. They looked panicked in their play calling, and it showed in the stat lines. They threw 59 times and only ran 42 times. Yes, they were behind, but they weren't THAT far behind to force their QBs to fling it down the field. It's another time where I look at Lane Kiffin and wonder why he gets so aggressive at times when he's got a guy like RB Derrick Henry averaging 5.5 yards a carry in the game. It makes no sense to risk it down the field like they were. Alabama's strength is that they are bigger and better than you up front, not that they are speedy in the backfield and on the edges. The play calling should reflect that.
But that's putting it all on Alabama, Ole Miss won the game because they did what they do best. They realized they were going to have more success throwing the ball, so they put the game in Chad Kelly's hands. I was dead wrong about thinking there would be a falloff from Bo Wallace to this kid Kelly, he's likely the best QB in the SEC right now without question. He makes solid reads, he knows how to scramble with his eyes down the field, and he has a great deep ball arm. In fact, he's 6th in passer rating in the nation, just ahead of teams like TCU and Oklahoma State. That's pretty phenomal for an SEC squad.
Oh and then there's this guy on defense for Ole Miss. You might have heard of him. His name is Robert Nkemdiche. He's the best defensive player in the SEC right now from what I've seen. He almost single-handedly ruined Alabama's game several times. The first was when it was 2nd and goal early in the game, and Alabama was down 0-3 on the 2 yard line. Alabama ran a jet sweep handoff to the strong side, and Nkemdiche swim moves past the RG in the interior, beats the Center as he's trying to hold him up, and chases down the runner for a 9-yard loss. It was insane. He forced Alabama so far out of position that they had to kick a FG instead of taking the lead. And I think if that play doesn't happen and Alabama DOES get the lead? The complexion of the game changes completely.
But Nkemdiche has all the moves. He was using stunts to beat the center, running through little chip blocks like there were nothing, and doing swim moves past an offensive line that looked incredibly solid against a Wisconsin team. He's NFL ready right now. If he's not in the top 5 in the NFL draft, I'll be absolutely floored. He's a man playing with children.
What I really loved about Ole Miss's play was how aggressively consistent they were while leading on the road. I love to see that out of any team that has a lead. They didn't get conservative and start running the ball to burn clock. That's not what they did to get them the lead in the first place, and that would have lost them the game. Instead, up 36-24 off the Coker interception, they kept their foot on the gas and went down the field to Treadwell for the back-breaker TD. If you're an Ole Miss fan, or just a football fan who hates the prevent and hates conservative protect-your-ass playcalling? That was a thing of absolute beauty.
Make no mistake, Ole Miss won this game. Alabama didn't hand it to them. If you believe Alabama lost it rather than Ole Miss taking it, you're probably an Alabama fan because they are the only people on earth who would try to rationalize that kind of nonsense. Teams don't put up 43 points on an Alabama defense because they got lucky. Ole Miss looked at the film of Wisconsin-Bama game, identified who to pick on and how, capitalized on turnovers, and executed their offensive gameplan to perfection. The only qualm I have with Ole Miss is that their defense started to wear down the in the second half, and their ball-hawking style can lead to them getting beat underneath at times with dink and dunk plays.
I honestly can't wait to see how Ole Miss fares against Texas A&M and LSU whose defenses are much faster and more terrifying in the secondary, but softer in the middle and on the lines. Can Ole Miss switch to a more powerful running attack to adapt for the speed? Also, can Alabama quickly train up their DBs and their LBs in time for a quick-hitter running attack in UGA, along with one of the better short-to-intermediate passers after the UGA game against South Carolina?
Only time will tell.
My first impression was that Ole Miss looked extremely potent passing the ball, and that Alabama shot itself in the foot over and over with turnovers. And that's the impression that I heard most people give me when they recapped the game. Most Alabama fans believed they would have won except for the stupid turnovers, and possibly starting one QB instead of two QBs, but that was about it. Most Ole Miss fans I talked to were extremely impressed with the offense, but were wary of how they kept giving Alabama chance after chance when they didn't have to.
Is Alabama in as bad of a situation as the media would make it out to be? Absolutely not. You'd be a fool to look at this tape and walk away thinking that Alabama still can't compete for an SEC Title right now. However, they have certain deficiencies that I warned about in their game against Wisconsin, and Ole Miss was exactly the type of team to pounce on those problems. Mainly, I'm talking about the linebacker and secondary play for Alabama, which isn't up to their usual high-caliber. More on that later.
Let's address the obvious first, the two fumbles on kickoffs absolutely put Alabama on the wrong foot. But even without those, it was the decision by the Alabama coaching staff to inexplicably start #18 Cooper Bateman instead of Jake Coker. I still have no idea what they were thinking. The offense went nowhere under Bateman for the first quarter and a half of the game. They had only 3 points, and finally Bateman was yanked for Coker after he threw a pick tied 3-3 with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. Again, let me point out that even with the first fumble, and the pick there, it was still just 3-3. But Ole Miss went for the jugular on 4th and goal on that next drive, and scored the first TD of the game. That's when the second fumble on the kickoff really killed Alabama's momentum. Ole Miss would score again on QB Chad Kelly's scramble to make it 17-3 Ole Miss.
That's when Coker came into the game. He led the team down the field in their next drive to make it 17-10 Ole Miss at the half. I honestly forgot it was that close, but it was only a 7 point game. So with the game on the line, and Ole Miss getting the ball. What happened? One of the freakiest plays you'll see in college football. The snap goes over Chad Kelly's head, he tips it in the air, picks it off the ground, and heaves it down the field right as he's hit. The ball goes off an Alabama player's head, bounces in the air to an Ole Miss receiver, who then tears down the field for a TD. It was absurd. Once I saw that play, Hell ANYBODY who saw that play, immediately thought the same thing: This is Ole Miss's day.
The Alabama offense stalled again and again, allowing Ole Miss two more FGs, making it 30-17, but Alabama rallied back with a TD drive of their own to make it 30-24. Again, Alabama is well within striking distance, but that's where another defensive breakdown happened. On a scramble to the right, #26 freshman DB Marlon Humphrey pulled off his coverage on Cody Core to try and get the QB, and Chad Kelly threw over the top of him for a 76 yard wide open TD run. Nobody could stop Core once he caught the ball because Humphrey was supposed to be the last line of defense on that play. It was a bad read and one that really cost the Tide. It's also not the first time I've pointed out Humphrey because he's young and looks unsteady out there. He's a 5-star recruit who had really high hopes dumped on him early, but he's getting exposed in the backfield quite often from what I'm seeing. I counted a few whiffed tackles to go along with getting beat on that key play.
This points out a bigger problem with the Alabama DBs, they are young and in the case of their best cover guy #5 Cyrus Jones, he's short at only 5'10". They put Jones on 6'3" WR #1 Laquon Treadwell, who abused him on several plays for 5 catches, 80 yards, and 1 TD. And that was probably a good job on a guy like Treadwell, but it's still not good enough for an Alabama defense that gave up over 40 points in the game. Interestingly, if you look at the tackles by position on the team, the number one tackler is LB Reggie Ragland. That makes sense as he's probably the most talented player outside of the Alabama front four, and he's projected right now as a 2nd round draft pick. However, if you look at the top 3 tacklers behind him? It's all DBs. Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, and Geno Matias-Smith. 35.5 tackles between all of them, but only 1.5 for losses. You know why DBs are making so many tackles? Because teams realize they can't run on you, and they are going to pick on your secondary. Let alone how many bad angles and missed tackles I saw in this game that I normally never see out of a Nick Saban defense.
Coker made two mistakes late, both bad interceptions with the game on the line. The first was a terrible throw, the second was because his center screwed up a key block and got Coker crushed as he unleashed a deep ball. But even so, Coker doesn't need to be throwing deep balls. In fact, Alabama getting as close as they were shouldn't have been throwing at all. They looked panicked in their play calling, and it showed in the stat lines. They threw 59 times and only ran 42 times. Yes, they were behind, but they weren't THAT far behind to force their QBs to fling it down the field. It's another time where I look at Lane Kiffin and wonder why he gets so aggressive at times when he's got a guy like RB Derrick Henry averaging 5.5 yards a carry in the game. It makes no sense to risk it down the field like they were. Alabama's strength is that they are bigger and better than you up front, not that they are speedy in the backfield and on the edges. The play calling should reflect that.
But that's putting it all on Alabama, Ole Miss won the game because they did what they do best. They realized they were going to have more success throwing the ball, so they put the game in Chad Kelly's hands. I was dead wrong about thinking there would be a falloff from Bo Wallace to this kid Kelly, he's likely the best QB in the SEC right now without question. He makes solid reads, he knows how to scramble with his eyes down the field, and he has a great deep ball arm. In fact, he's 6th in passer rating in the nation, just ahead of teams like TCU and Oklahoma State. That's pretty phenomal for an SEC squad.
Oh and then there's this guy on defense for Ole Miss. You might have heard of him. His name is Robert Nkemdiche. He's the best defensive player in the SEC right now from what I've seen. He almost single-handedly ruined Alabama's game several times. The first was when it was 2nd and goal early in the game, and Alabama was down 0-3 on the 2 yard line. Alabama ran a jet sweep handoff to the strong side, and Nkemdiche swim moves past the RG in the interior, beats the Center as he's trying to hold him up, and chases down the runner for a 9-yard loss. It was insane. He forced Alabama so far out of position that they had to kick a FG instead of taking the lead. And I think if that play doesn't happen and Alabama DOES get the lead? The complexion of the game changes completely.
But Nkemdiche has all the moves. He was using stunts to beat the center, running through little chip blocks like there were nothing, and doing swim moves past an offensive line that looked incredibly solid against a Wisconsin team. He's NFL ready right now. If he's not in the top 5 in the NFL draft, I'll be absolutely floored. He's a man playing with children.
What I really loved about Ole Miss's play was how aggressively consistent they were while leading on the road. I love to see that out of any team that has a lead. They didn't get conservative and start running the ball to burn clock. That's not what they did to get them the lead in the first place, and that would have lost them the game. Instead, up 36-24 off the Coker interception, they kept their foot on the gas and went down the field to Treadwell for the back-breaker TD. If you're an Ole Miss fan, or just a football fan who hates the prevent and hates conservative protect-your-ass playcalling? That was a thing of absolute beauty.
Make no mistake, Ole Miss won this game. Alabama didn't hand it to them. If you believe Alabama lost it rather than Ole Miss taking it, you're probably an Alabama fan because they are the only people on earth who would try to rationalize that kind of nonsense. Teams don't put up 43 points on an Alabama defense because they got lucky. Ole Miss looked at the film of Wisconsin-Bama game, identified who to pick on and how, capitalized on turnovers, and executed their offensive gameplan to perfection. The only qualm I have with Ole Miss is that their defense started to wear down the in the second half, and their ball-hawking style can lead to them getting beat underneath at times with dink and dunk plays.
I honestly can't wait to see how Ole Miss fares against Texas A&M and LSU whose defenses are much faster and more terrifying in the secondary, but softer in the middle and on the lines. Can Ole Miss switch to a more powerful running attack to adapt for the speed? Also, can Alabama quickly train up their DBs and their LBs in time for a quick-hitter running attack in UGA, along with one of the better short-to-intermediate passers after the UGA game against South Carolina?
Only time will tell.
Monday, September 21, 2015
Auburn Tigers v. LSU Tigers: Week 3 Analysis
The Tigers on Tigers battle down on the bayou was anything but a battle. It was a good-ole-fashioned slaughter in favor of LSU, and that was mostly because of the dominating running game led by #7 Leonard Fournette. If you haven't seen the highlight of Fournette running through guys while he sheds tacklers like a snakeskin, go ahead and check the internet. I'm sure you'll see it, as it's everywhere.
Fournette will get all the talk, all the Heisman projections, all the discussion about why he's still being forced to play at the college level when he's obviously ready for the pros right now. Because that's what we do in college football. We blow up good performances and make them into world-beating projections for all time. And why wouldn't you in this case? Fournette is a 6-1, 230 pound wrecking ball who can ramp up to ramming speed like he's about to blow open the door on a police raid. But also remember, he's done this before against teams that can't protect against the run, and Auburn sure as hell can't guard the run at all.
Besides Fournette going off, the thing that jumped out to me about LSU's offense was how great their blockers were in the run game. My favorite guy on the team now has to be their stout fullback #44 John David Moore. For starters, Moore is a walk-on. He's also an architectural major. There's no reason he should be as good as he is springing open holes for Fournette, but he looked amazing against Auburn. Whenever there was a big run, you could be sure that it was Moore leading the way and laying the key block that opened up whatever daylight Fournette needed. 228 yards with of daylight for that young man.
The one takeaway I have from watching Auburn defend the run was that it's even more horrifying than it seemed from the box scores. Why? Because Auburn was putting 8 guys in the box and at times 6 guys on the line before the snap. Not even in blitzes, they were actually lining up that way and showing full line stacking before LSU even tried to run. AND LSU STILL DUMPTRUCKED THEM. Part of that is LSU being great, have no doubt. The other part is that from a pure hat-on-a-hat game in the trenches? Auburn is flat wretched. And what's worse, they looked like they gave up. At one point even Gary Danielson called out a safety on one of Fournette's TD runs. You could actually see #23 for Johnathon Ford for Auburn quit on a run as he slowed up and half-assed waved his hand at Fournette as he went by, bowling over one of Ford's teammates. That kind of thing shows exactly what kind of team Auburn has. They are a me-first bunch soft bunch of slackers. And in the SEC that will get you killed.
Once again, if you were forced to watch this blowout, and by my guess most people checked out when it got to be 24-0 at the half, you saw another great example of how far QB play has fallen in the SEC. You will hear me harp on this a good bit this season, and there's a reason. This crop of QB's mostly sucks. They can't make changes at the line, they don't read defenses at the snap, and they don't know how to check off safeties with their eyes. It's a stare-down league, and the two QB's playing in this LSU-Auburn match were no different.
While the running games went off, the passing games were cringe-worthy. Let's start with the winning QB Brandon Harris. He went 12-17 with 1 TD and 74 yards. Most of you would say he didn't have to throw with the way the running game was going. That's true, but when he did it was very little down the field. Much of it was sweeping touch-pass plays where he only had to complete a pass that was essentially a forward hand off. Against MS State, Harris only had 71 yards on 14 attempts. As we get deeper into the season, and they play better teams, LSU is going to have a problem. I would say against Texas A&M they will likely have a BIG problem, because you can't run forever. At some point you have to catch up, and I'm not sure Harris has the skills to do that. However, he can run and make defenses pay if they leave somebody ridiculously wide open.
But if Harris is questionable, Jeremy Johnson was downright abominable. I heard how great Johnson was going to be by pundits everywhere. Here's a bunch of those articles that look absolutely absurd right now.
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2015/4/24/8488493/jeremy-johnson-heisman-candidate-auburn-tigers-football
http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2015/07/jeremy_johnsons_heisman_trophy.html
http://flywareagle.com/2014/12/16/auburn-football-quarterback-jeremy-johnson-2015-heisman-trophy-candidate/
Yeah, I've written articles before where I said something dumb, including picks on this very blog. But what I've never done is tell you a guy in the preseason will win the Heisman, because that's NEVER the way it goes. And it's not going that way for Johnson right now. Allow me to paint the picture of how bad it got.
Johnson's first mistake was actually throwing the ball backwards. Yep. As in the ball completely slipping out of his hand and flying backwards. Remember when Jameis Winston tossed a ball backwards in the playoff game against Oregon? It was like that, except nobody was chasing Johnson, which makes it even dumber. But it got worse! Next, he threw into double coverage down the field after staring at his receiver, and got picked off. Then, he should have gotten picked off again for the same thing in the second quarter, but the DB dropped the ball. Finally, he was sacked and fumbled and LSU recovered inside Auburn's own 10 yard line. Johnson went 11-19 for 100 yards passing, 2 passing TDs, and 2 turnovers. But the numbers don't tell the story and most of that was in garbage time. If not for the long running TD Johnson had, it would have been a complete disaster.
Which leads me to talk about Auburn's offense. They are completely built around getting to the edge with jet sweeps and pitch plays, they can't really throw the ball down the field, and the QB running game comes into play when the defense abandons the middle to guard the edge. If a team is solid on the edge with the DBs, and the linebackers don't overpursue? Auburn's dead in the water. That's it, that's all they have. An offense that was once so potent is frankly simple to completely shut down, and that's a shame if you're an Auburn fan. For the rest of the league, it's easy pickings.
It's not all sunshine and farts for LSU either, despite the score. Even though Fournette running over people gave me chills, I've seen this before. He did it against every bad team he played last year, before struggling hard against the 4 teams in the SEC with a solid defense. Auburn USED to be one of those, but now the hardest defenses LSU will face against the run are Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, and possibly A&M or Ole Miss. And two of those teams are currently inept on offense. I want to see how Fournette and the lack of passing attack fare against a better defense, but we'll have to wait until the second half of the season since LSU has 3 easy mow-down teams before they get to Florida in mid-October.
Overall, if you're playing either team, defensively you shouldn't put any of your defensive backs outside the 10 yard box until they can prove there's a threat down the field. Also, offensively I'd stay outside of the middle against LSU early, instead opting for a solid screen and tight end passing game, then switch to up the middle runs later as the defense lineman get tired of running around chasing their tails. If you're facing Auburn offensively, just line and hit them in the mouth. They'll give up eventually.
Fournette will get all the talk, all the Heisman projections, all the discussion about why he's still being forced to play at the college level when he's obviously ready for the pros right now. Because that's what we do in college football. We blow up good performances and make them into world-beating projections for all time. And why wouldn't you in this case? Fournette is a 6-1, 230 pound wrecking ball who can ramp up to ramming speed like he's about to blow open the door on a police raid. But also remember, he's done this before against teams that can't protect against the run, and Auburn sure as hell can't guard the run at all.
Besides Fournette going off, the thing that jumped out to me about LSU's offense was how great their blockers were in the run game. My favorite guy on the team now has to be their stout fullback #44 John David Moore. For starters, Moore is a walk-on. He's also an architectural major. There's no reason he should be as good as he is springing open holes for Fournette, but he looked amazing against Auburn. Whenever there was a big run, you could be sure that it was Moore leading the way and laying the key block that opened up whatever daylight Fournette needed. 228 yards with of daylight for that young man.
The one takeaway I have from watching Auburn defend the run was that it's even more horrifying than it seemed from the box scores. Why? Because Auburn was putting 8 guys in the box and at times 6 guys on the line before the snap. Not even in blitzes, they were actually lining up that way and showing full line stacking before LSU even tried to run. AND LSU STILL DUMPTRUCKED THEM. Part of that is LSU being great, have no doubt. The other part is that from a pure hat-on-a-hat game in the trenches? Auburn is flat wretched. And what's worse, they looked like they gave up. At one point even Gary Danielson called out a safety on one of Fournette's TD runs. You could actually see #23 for Johnathon Ford for Auburn quit on a run as he slowed up and half-assed waved his hand at Fournette as he went by, bowling over one of Ford's teammates. That kind of thing shows exactly what kind of team Auburn has. They are a me-first bunch soft bunch of slackers. And in the SEC that will get you killed.
Once again, if you were forced to watch this blowout, and by my guess most people checked out when it got to be 24-0 at the half, you saw another great example of how far QB play has fallen in the SEC. You will hear me harp on this a good bit this season, and there's a reason. This crop of QB's mostly sucks. They can't make changes at the line, they don't read defenses at the snap, and they don't know how to check off safeties with their eyes. It's a stare-down league, and the two QB's playing in this LSU-Auburn match were no different.
While the running games went off, the passing games were cringe-worthy. Let's start with the winning QB Brandon Harris. He went 12-17 with 1 TD and 74 yards. Most of you would say he didn't have to throw with the way the running game was going. That's true, but when he did it was very little down the field. Much of it was sweeping touch-pass plays where he only had to complete a pass that was essentially a forward hand off. Against MS State, Harris only had 71 yards on 14 attempts. As we get deeper into the season, and they play better teams, LSU is going to have a problem. I would say against Texas A&M they will likely have a BIG problem, because you can't run forever. At some point you have to catch up, and I'm not sure Harris has the skills to do that. However, he can run and make defenses pay if they leave somebody ridiculously wide open.
But if Harris is questionable, Jeremy Johnson was downright abominable. I heard how great Johnson was going to be by pundits everywhere. Here's a bunch of those articles that look absolutely absurd right now.
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2015/4/24/8488493/jeremy-johnson-heisman-candidate-auburn-tigers-football
http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2015/07/jeremy_johnsons_heisman_trophy.html
http://flywareagle.com/2014/12/16/auburn-football-quarterback-jeremy-johnson-2015-heisman-trophy-candidate/
Yeah, I've written articles before where I said something dumb, including picks on this very blog. But what I've never done is tell you a guy in the preseason will win the Heisman, because that's NEVER the way it goes. And it's not going that way for Johnson right now. Allow me to paint the picture of how bad it got.
Johnson's first mistake was actually throwing the ball backwards. Yep. As in the ball completely slipping out of his hand and flying backwards. Remember when Jameis Winston tossed a ball backwards in the playoff game against Oregon? It was like that, except nobody was chasing Johnson, which makes it even dumber. But it got worse! Next, he threw into double coverage down the field after staring at his receiver, and got picked off. Then, he should have gotten picked off again for the same thing in the second quarter, but the DB dropped the ball. Finally, he was sacked and fumbled and LSU recovered inside Auburn's own 10 yard line. Johnson went 11-19 for 100 yards passing, 2 passing TDs, and 2 turnovers. But the numbers don't tell the story and most of that was in garbage time. If not for the long running TD Johnson had, it would have been a complete disaster.
Which leads me to talk about Auburn's offense. They are completely built around getting to the edge with jet sweeps and pitch plays, they can't really throw the ball down the field, and the QB running game comes into play when the defense abandons the middle to guard the edge. If a team is solid on the edge with the DBs, and the linebackers don't overpursue? Auburn's dead in the water. That's it, that's all they have. An offense that was once so potent is frankly simple to completely shut down, and that's a shame if you're an Auburn fan. For the rest of the league, it's easy pickings.
It's not all sunshine and farts for LSU either, despite the score. Even though Fournette running over people gave me chills, I've seen this before. He did it against every bad team he played last year, before struggling hard against the 4 teams in the SEC with a solid defense. Auburn USED to be one of those, but now the hardest defenses LSU will face against the run are Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, and possibly A&M or Ole Miss. And two of those teams are currently inept on offense. I want to see how Fournette and the lack of passing attack fare against a better defense, but we'll have to wait until the second half of the season since LSU has 3 easy mow-down teams before they get to Florida in mid-October.
Overall, if you're playing either team, defensively you shouldn't put any of your defensive backs outside the 10 yard box until they can prove there's a threat down the field. Also, offensively I'd stay outside of the middle against LSU early, instead opting for a solid screen and tight end passing game, then switch to up the middle runs later as the defense lineman get tired of running around chasing their tails. If you're facing Auburn offensively, just line and hit them in the mouth. They'll give up eventually.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
SEC Picks Week 3!
So last week went 1-2, which is another lost unit. So we're 2 units down, but don't fear, we're getting more information and soon we're going to really be in conference play where we can start making some bigger unit moves. Let's see what we got.
1 unit plays:
Georgia v. South Carolina +16: I like GEORGIA -16 in this game. Normally, you'd say entirely too many points. In fact the public is mostly betting on SC because of that factor. But the problem is that SC is playing a backup QB, they only have one real weapon in the WR arsenal, and their run defense was gashed by Kentucky. Georgia's running back is even better, and the Georgia defense has been better in all facets. It's worth a one unit play.
Kentucky v. Florida -3.5: I like KENTUCKY +3.5 in this game. The spread is favorable in my mind since this could be a one-score game. Florida is struggling to make things happen against easy teams, and Kentucky just shut down a SC team that's likely about on par with East Carolina. I'm using transitive properties a bit here, but I think Kentucky's QB situation is way better than Florida, as is their running game. Kentucky can score enough to keep it really interesting if not win it outright and shock Florida in the process.
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -12: I like ARKANSAS -12 in this game. The world is going to bet against Arkansas after what happened. I'm going full contrarian pick here and taking the Hogs with less than 2 TDs to try and fade out the public. An SEC team usually bounces back after that kind of embarrassment.
Nevada v. Texas A&M -35: I like NEVADA +35 in this game. Texas A&M has a ridiculous defense. Nevada may not score more than 14 points this entire game. However, Vegas has set the bar really high on this number, and A&M who is already 2-0 ATS is due for a pull-back at some point. I'm betting it's now. It's a bit contrarian as well, but now is the time to do it on small plays.
Coin flip picks:
Connecticut v. Missouri -21.5: MISSOURI -21.5
Auburn v. LSU -7: AUBURN +7 (Rebound factor)
Ole Miss v. Alabama -7: OLE MISS +7 (if Ole Miss's offense is real, this is a shootout)
Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Vandy are all playing cupcakes that aren't lined. So they are out this week.
GOOD LUCK!
1 unit plays:
Georgia v. South Carolina +16: I like GEORGIA -16 in this game. Normally, you'd say entirely too many points. In fact the public is mostly betting on SC because of that factor. But the problem is that SC is playing a backup QB, they only have one real weapon in the WR arsenal, and their run defense was gashed by Kentucky. Georgia's running back is even better, and the Georgia defense has been better in all facets. It's worth a one unit play.
Kentucky v. Florida -3.5: I like KENTUCKY +3.5 in this game. The spread is favorable in my mind since this could be a one-score game. Florida is struggling to make things happen against easy teams, and Kentucky just shut down a SC team that's likely about on par with East Carolina. I'm using transitive properties a bit here, but I think Kentucky's QB situation is way better than Florida, as is their running game. Kentucky can score enough to keep it really interesting if not win it outright and shock Florida in the process.
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -12: I like ARKANSAS -12 in this game. The world is going to bet against Arkansas after what happened. I'm going full contrarian pick here and taking the Hogs with less than 2 TDs to try and fade out the public. An SEC team usually bounces back after that kind of embarrassment.
Nevada v. Texas A&M -35: I like NEVADA +35 in this game. Texas A&M has a ridiculous defense. Nevada may not score more than 14 points this entire game. However, Vegas has set the bar really high on this number, and A&M who is already 2-0 ATS is due for a pull-back at some point. I'm betting it's now. It's a bit contrarian as well, but now is the time to do it on small plays.
Coin flip picks:
Connecticut v. Missouri -21.5: MISSOURI -21.5
Auburn v. LSU -7: AUBURN +7 (Rebound factor)
Ole Miss v. Alabama -7: OLE MISS +7 (if Ole Miss's offense is real, this is a shootout)
Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Vandy are all playing cupcakes that aren't lined. So they are out this week.
GOOD LUCK!
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Tennessee Volunteers v. Oklahoma Sooners: Week 2 Analysis
So let's start off with some obvious things I noticed about this game. First, the offense absolutely lost the game for Tennessee. Many people who are huge Tennessee fans have explained to me how much they love Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. And while I think Hurd has the potential to be a very dynamic player, I am not sold on Josh Dobbs and never have been (fair warning on my bias, but I think you can see why when I explain the detail). I wanted to see more from Dobbs than the small flashes we got late in last year.
Tennessee scored 17 points within the first 20 minutes of the game. They looked pretty solid doing it, capitalizing on OU's many mistakes, great field position, and the overwhelming crowd noise. They were up 17-0 with 12:14 left in the second quarter. The defense for Tennessee was oppressive, holding OU to just 3 points for almost 50 minutes of the game. In fact, the defense didn't even allow OU to snap the ball on the other half of the field until the 4th quarter. And how were they rewarded by their offensive staff in the second half? Here's how:
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, Missed FG
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 44, 3 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 41, 8 plays, PUNT
Started on the OU 29 after an INT, 3 plays, PUNT (they went backwards 11 yards)
Started on the TENN 20, 3 plays, PUNT
Tennessee had 6 drives with an average starting field position of the TENN 39, and scored nothing. One FG in almost 40 minutes of playtime would have won the game. ANYTHING would have won the game. They got nothing at all. And it's because Josh Dobbs couldn't complete passes to save his life late, and the running game bogged down to a crawl. How bad was it? Dobbs was 13/31 (41.9%) for 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Even with Jalen Hurd going for 100+ on the ground and a TD in OT, that's still not enough. Not nearly enough.
Here's the good news about the game: The Tennessee defense for most of the game was a wrecking ball in the middle, allowing no access to runs for OU for a great majority of the time, and they were putting constant pressure on the OU QB Baker Mayfield. It looked like Mayfield was running for his life most of the game, but the odd part was that they rarely sacked him. In fact, that would become a major problem late in the game as most of the key plays came for OU when the pocket broke down, Mayfield eluded tackles, and somehow would complete a pass downfield. If the defense could have just put him on the ground, they probably win the game too.
The other good news is that for the first half the offensive line looked pretty solid. A standout for me is #71 Dylan Wiesman, whom I would keep an eye on if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator. If a big running play was getting sprung in the middle, I can almost guarantee it was 71 throwing the block. He looked great out there, and I think he's got the potential to really lay a hurt on some opposing linemen in the running game over the season.
OU in the first half was shooting itself in the foot over and over again. You could sort of see this coming late in the game as the time kept going and Tennessee kept punting. Most of the problems for OU were big plays getting negated by penalties, or interceptions going off receivers hands, or losing reviews on catches that were initially ruled complete. That tide turned in the second half. That's why if you're a Tennessee fan and you want to complain about any calls in this game, especially late, let me explain something to you right now. The officials had nothing to do with you losing. OU was getting buried by their own penalties in the first half, and they even had a TD taken off the board late in the second half. The refs called this one pretty even. Not well, but even.
Here's the bad news: Curt Maggitt, the best pass-rusher on the team and the vocal leader is gone with an injury for we don't know how long. He left mid-way through the game, and it was obvious that OU shifted their focus to the other UT DE Derek Barnett, making his life much tougher. But Barnett was still a terror out there, and man he looks like a force long term for the Vols. More bad news is that OU figured out late they could pick on DB #12 Emmanuel Moseley, a sophomore who looks a little unsure out there. He was the guy who got beat on the tying TD in the corner to take the game to OT. And I don't blame OU for picking on him, I'd take notes if I'm the opposing coach and go after him instead of Cam Sutton who's a much better Tennessee DB on the other side.
But really for me it comes down to how the offense looked out of sync in the second half, and how Josh Dobbs keeps staring down receivers. If you watch him over and over, here's the basic tendencies. Josh will make his first read, and if it's there he'll take it. That's fine, and if that's working the Tennessee offense is in great shape. However, if he has to go to a second read? All hell breaks loose for a few reasons. One, he's taking too long to switch targets and he's running out of time in the pocket. Two, his O-Line isn't good enough in pass protection to give him the time to make long reads. Three, he has to take off when he gets in trouble, and he's not doing a great job of getting reset and keeping eyes down the field. And four, even on the first read if it's not exactly what he wants, he's taking too long to pull the trigger.
I believe he's thinking too much out there, and that last interception was a good example of what I'm talking about. I would prefer any Tennessee fan if they can stomach watching it over again to pull the tape. Watch Dobbs drop back looking middle, then looks right as he sets for what seems like 2-3 seconds before he unloads to his first read. That 2-3 seconds of looking at a receiver is an eternity in college pass protection. OU just finally picked up on it and jumped the route. But it wasn't the first time. Early in the first quarter, Dobbs had to passes literally go through the hands of OU defenders. It's something he's going to have to work on or his INT totals are going to go way up down the field.
It's one game for the Volunteers, that's the best news. The other good news is that the defense overall looks stellar. If the offense can even remotely get on the defense's level, they'll win football games. But they have to start honestly looking at their deficiencies and correcting the fundamental errors on the line and at the QB spot. Otherwise, teams will just stack the box and force Dobbs to start making passes. And with enough film, they are going to pick up on his tendencies. Alabama's defense is watching this tape over and over again right now on how to shut Tennessee down flat.
Long haul? I expect Butch Jones to adapt quickly. Hurd is going to get the ball more. I expect shorter passes to get Dobbs in a rhythm when things look off. I expect they will work out a lot of these kinks against their next cupcake, and they will look a ton better by the time they get down to Florida. And they may get back on a roll if they dust themselves off. After all, this wasn't a conference game. The SEC East is still there for the taking, if they can score enough to take it.
Tennessee scored 17 points within the first 20 minutes of the game. They looked pretty solid doing it, capitalizing on OU's many mistakes, great field position, and the overwhelming crowd noise. They were up 17-0 with 12:14 left in the second quarter. The defense for Tennessee was oppressive, holding OU to just 3 points for almost 50 minutes of the game. In fact, the defense didn't even allow OU to snap the ball on the other half of the field until the 4th quarter. And how were they rewarded by their offensive staff in the second half? Here's how:
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, Missed FG
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 44, 3 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 41, 8 plays, PUNT
Started on the OU 29 after an INT, 3 plays, PUNT (they went backwards 11 yards)
Started on the TENN 20, 3 plays, PUNT
Tennessee had 6 drives with an average starting field position of the TENN 39, and scored nothing. One FG in almost 40 minutes of playtime would have won the game. ANYTHING would have won the game. They got nothing at all. And it's because Josh Dobbs couldn't complete passes to save his life late, and the running game bogged down to a crawl. How bad was it? Dobbs was 13/31 (41.9%) for 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Even with Jalen Hurd going for 100+ on the ground and a TD in OT, that's still not enough. Not nearly enough.
Here's the good news about the game: The Tennessee defense for most of the game was a wrecking ball in the middle, allowing no access to runs for OU for a great majority of the time, and they were putting constant pressure on the OU QB Baker Mayfield. It looked like Mayfield was running for his life most of the game, but the odd part was that they rarely sacked him. In fact, that would become a major problem late in the game as most of the key plays came for OU when the pocket broke down, Mayfield eluded tackles, and somehow would complete a pass downfield. If the defense could have just put him on the ground, they probably win the game too.
The other good news is that for the first half the offensive line looked pretty solid. A standout for me is #71 Dylan Wiesman, whom I would keep an eye on if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator. If a big running play was getting sprung in the middle, I can almost guarantee it was 71 throwing the block. He looked great out there, and I think he's got the potential to really lay a hurt on some opposing linemen in the running game over the season.
OU in the first half was shooting itself in the foot over and over again. You could sort of see this coming late in the game as the time kept going and Tennessee kept punting. Most of the problems for OU were big plays getting negated by penalties, or interceptions going off receivers hands, or losing reviews on catches that were initially ruled complete. That tide turned in the second half. That's why if you're a Tennessee fan and you want to complain about any calls in this game, especially late, let me explain something to you right now. The officials had nothing to do with you losing. OU was getting buried by their own penalties in the first half, and they even had a TD taken off the board late in the second half. The refs called this one pretty even. Not well, but even.
Here's the bad news: Curt Maggitt, the best pass-rusher on the team and the vocal leader is gone with an injury for we don't know how long. He left mid-way through the game, and it was obvious that OU shifted their focus to the other UT DE Derek Barnett, making his life much tougher. But Barnett was still a terror out there, and man he looks like a force long term for the Vols. More bad news is that OU figured out late they could pick on DB #12 Emmanuel Moseley, a sophomore who looks a little unsure out there. He was the guy who got beat on the tying TD in the corner to take the game to OT. And I don't blame OU for picking on him, I'd take notes if I'm the opposing coach and go after him instead of Cam Sutton who's a much better Tennessee DB on the other side.
But really for me it comes down to how the offense looked out of sync in the second half, and how Josh Dobbs keeps staring down receivers. If you watch him over and over, here's the basic tendencies. Josh will make his first read, and if it's there he'll take it. That's fine, and if that's working the Tennessee offense is in great shape. However, if he has to go to a second read? All hell breaks loose for a few reasons. One, he's taking too long to switch targets and he's running out of time in the pocket. Two, his O-Line isn't good enough in pass protection to give him the time to make long reads. Three, he has to take off when he gets in trouble, and he's not doing a great job of getting reset and keeping eyes down the field. And four, even on the first read if it's not exactly what he wants, he's taking too long to pull the trigger.
I believe he's thinking too much out there, and that last interception was a good example of what I'm talking about. I would prefer any Tennessee fan if they can stomach watching it over again to pull the tape. Watch Dobbs drop back looking middle, then looks right as he sets for what seems like 2-3 seconds before he unloads to his first read. That 2-3 seconds of looking at a receiver is an eternity in college pass protection. OU just finally picked up on it and jumped the route. But it wasn't the first time. Early in the first quarter, Dobbs had to passes literally go through the hands of OU defenders. It's something he's going to have to work on or his INT totals are going to go way up down the field.
It's one game for the Volunteers, that's the best news. The other good news is that the defense overall looks stellar. If the offense can even remotely get on the defense's level, they'll win football games. But they have to start honestly looking at their deficiencies and correcting the fundamental errors on the line and at the QB spot. Otherwise, teams will just stack the box and force Dobbs to start making passes. And with enough film, they are going to pick up on his tendencies. Alabama's defense is watching this tape over and over again right now on how to shut Tennessee down flat.
Long haul? I expect Butch Jones to adapt quickly. Hurd is going to get the ball more. I expect shorter passes to get Dobbs in a rhythm when things look off. I expect they will work out a lot of these kinks against their next cupcake, and they will look a ton better by the time they get down to Florida. And they may get back on a roll if they dust themselves off. After all, this wasn't a conference game. The SEC East is still there for the taking, if they can score enough to take it.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Kentucky Wildcats v. South Carolina Gamecocks: Week 2 Analysis
What an odd game of two completely different halves. When I was watching the film, I thought after the first half that South Carolina was completely inept in all facets of the game, and that Kentucky was going to mow them down on their way to a dominating win. As I watched the second half unfold, I started to wonder if Kentucky could tie its own shoes on the offensive line without getting a holding penalty and killing the drive.
Since this is the first time I'm covering two SEC teams, I'm going to go a little bit more in detail on Kentucky since I covered a good bit of South Carolina's issues in my Week 1 breakdown of their game with UNC. But for starters, Connor Mitch still sucks as a QB for SC. The bad(good) news is that he got hurt in the first half, and he likely won't win his job back even if he was healthy. Instead, SC had to go with Perry Orth as their QB, who did a much better job. More on that later as I talk about the second half of this game.
I had yet to watch Kentucky this year until I turned on this match, and I was surprised by a few things. First, their QB #14 Patrick Towles actually looks like he knows what he's doing (21/29 with 191 yards, an INT, and a rushing TD). This is a RARE thing in SEC football right now, as you may have noticed from all the crazy upsets in the SEC this past weekend. A good QB is hard to find in the conference at the moment, but a guy like Towles looks like he can not only make the short and medium level throws, but he can also run a great screen game and take you deep if you try and check up at the line. Oh and he can run for TD's and first downs as well if the sea parts in the middle. I like the kid, and I think he played probably the star player for Kentucky in this win.
The other thing I noticed about Kentucky is the funky formations they run. A lot of the time they are in what I would call a modified diamond formation offensive set. That means QB is essentially in a shotgun, surrounded on both sides with RBs, and then another RB about 3 steps behind him. The effective use of the formation seems to be both misdirection in the running game and blocking. The downside is that you leave only 2 WR's on the outside, meaning a good defense can put 4-4 in the box and cover the wideouts with single coverage and a safety. No real razzle-dazzle out of the passing game there, it's a straight running offense.
And that worked well in the first half. #18 for Kentucky Boom Williams (his real name is Stanley but Boom is much cooler), and #3 Jo-Jo Kemp (whom I remember from his HUGE game against SC last year) led the charge with the running attack and did very well. But that only lasted a half. Even so Boom ended up with 107 yards on the ground, and Kemp had 78 with a TD.
Up 24-7 in the second half, Kentucky did the unforgivable. They started making drive-killing penalties. First possession? Holding call that led to a 3-and-out. Same on the second possession. Third possession was a 4 yard fumble that they recovered but set them back to another 3-and-out. In fact, Kentucky didn't even have a single first down in the second half until their FIFTH possession when they finally cracked the barrier, and even then they never scored a single offensive point the entire half.
Instead, Perry Orth started to rally the troops. As a UGA fan getting ready to play them next week, watching Connor Mitch struggle gave me hope. Watching Perry Orth suddenly come in and turn the tide around for this South Carolina offense has me worried again. Orth didn't do anything complicated, he just made sure that he tried to find SC's best player (#11 Pharoh Cooper) on every single throw. Sounds simple right? But Kentucky kept letting him get open, and Orth kept finding him. And if they double-covered Cooper, Orth would find the wide-open man standing by himself. He did a great job in recollecting the offense.
The problem was they had dug too much of a hole in the first half, and SC kept getting bogged down in the red zone against Kentucky's defense. Not once, not twice, but thrice they made it inside Kentucky's 20 yard line and had to settle for a FG. If they had just capitalized on another of those, they likely win this game. Instead, when they finally did score a TD on a great Orth throw to the tight end, they went for 2, down 24-22, and didn't get it. Worse, Pharoh Cooper fumbled it and Kentucky rumbled for the scoop and score 2 of their own, making the final 26-22.
South Carolina had once last shot at the game, but Orth finally made his rookie mistake, throwing late across his body on the run. It was an ugly pick too, the kind you just shake your head and say, "Kid you can't make that mistake there, you just can't." Kentucky iced the game away with some good first down running to kill the remainder of the clock.
So what did I learn? I learned that South Carolina is likely in a better place with Orth than Mitch at the QB spot, and I wonder if they wouldn't have won the game outright if Orth had simply started. I questioned Mitch after last week's game and I stand by it. He's awful. I also learned that SC's offensive line is going to have fits with anybody who can run a blitz package effectively. At one point #51 their RT tried to cut block a blitzing corner, whiffed completely, and then stood around looking ashamed as his QB got planted like a lawn dart. It was like watching a really good matador or a really terrible football play all in one.
I learned that Kentucky is no longer the pushover you might think in today's SEC. Chalking up easy victory on this team is anything but with a guy like Towles throwing the ball. He looks more settled than ever as a Junior, and his 3-headed running attack takes a lot of pressure off him. If teams try to play too tight on the run, he can go over the top. If they get too soft, he can swing it to a WR screen. But the downside for Kentucky is their run defense simply isn't going to be good enough against the better teams unless they sell out. And in an SEC where the strength of most teams is pounding you with the run, they will have a hard time playing catchup as teams dominate the ground.
I also learned that if you want to beat South Carolina, their secondary is one step above complete garbage. It's all you can eat off these corners, and any team that can throw the ball around will eat their lunch all year long. Fortunately for them, none of the teams in the SEC East actually know how to throw the ball around except maybe Missouri and Kentucky. But Clemson does, and that game may cause Spurrier to retire.
All in all, I think Kentucky absolutely earned this win, and this was no accident. If they'd cleaned up the stupid mistakes in the second half, it wouldn't have been close.
And that's going to drive Steve Spurrier nuts.
Since this is the first time I'm covering two SEC teams, I'm going to go a little bit more in detail on Kentucky since I covered a good bit of South Carolina's issues in my Week 1 breakdown of their game with UNC. But for starters, Connor Mitch still sucks as a QB for SC. The bad(good) news is that he got hurt in the first half, and he likely won't win his job back even if he was healthy. Instead, SC had to go with Perry Orth as their QB, who did a much better job. More on that later as I talk about the second half of this game.
I had yet to watch Kentucky this year until I turned on this match, and I was surprised by a few things. First, their QB #14 Patrick Towles actually looks like he knows what he's doing (21/29 with 191 yards, an INT, and a rushing TD). This is a RARE thing in SEC football right now, as you may have noticed from all the crazy upsets in the SEC this past weekend. A good QB is hard to find in the conference at the moment, but a guy like Towles looks like he can not only make the short and medium level throws, but he can also run a great screen game and take you deep if you try and check up at the line. Oh and he can run for TD's and first downs as well if the sea parts in the middle. I like the kid, and I think he played probably the star player for Kentucky in this win.
The other thing I noticed about Kentucky is the funky formations they run. A lot of the time they are in what I would call a modified diamond formation offensive set. That means QB is essentially in a shotgun, surrounded on both sides with RBs, and then another RB about 3 steps behind him. The effective use of the formation seems to be both misdirection in the running game and blocking. The downside is that you leave only 2 WR's on the outside, meaning a good defense can put 4-4 in the box and cover the wideouts with single coverage and a safety. No real razzle-dazzle out of the passing game there, it's a straight running offense.
And that worked well in the first half. #18 for Kentucky Boom Williams (his real name is Stanley but Boom is much cooler), and #3 Jo-Jo Kemp (whom I remember from his HUGE game against SC last year) led the charge with the running attack and did very well. But that only lasted a half. Even so Boom ended up with 107 yards on the ground, and Kemp had 78 with a TD.
Up 24-7 in the second half, Kentucky did the unforgivable. They started making drive-killing penalties. First possession? Holding call that led to a 3-and-out. Same on the second possession. Third possession was a 4 yard fumble that they recovered but set them back to another 3-and-out. In fact, Kentucky didn't even have a single first down in the second half until their FIFTH possession when they finally cracked the barrier, and even then they never scored a single offensive point the entire half.
Instead, Perry Orth started to rally the troops. As a UGA fan getting ready to play them next week, watching Connor Mitch struggle gave me hope. Watching Perry Orth suddenly come in and turn the tide around for this South Carolina offense has me worried again. Orth didn't do anything complicated, he just made sure that he tried to find SC's best player (#11 Pharoh Cooper) on every single throw. Sounds simple right? But Kentucky kept letting him get open, and Orth kept finding him. And if they double-covered Cooper, Orth would find the wide-open man standing by himself. He did a great job in recollecting the offense.
The problem was they had dug too much of a hole in the first half, and SC kept getting bogged down in the red zone against Kentucky's defense. Not once, not twice, but thrice they made it inside Kentucky's 20 yard line and had to settle for a FG. If they had just capitalized on another of those, they likely win this game. Instead, when they finally did score a TD on a great Orth throw to the tight end, they went for 2, down 24-22, and didn't get it. Worse, Pharoh Cooper fumbled it and Kentucky rumbled for the scoop and score 2 of their own, making the final 26-22.
South Carolina had once last shot at the game, but Orth finally made his rookie mistake, throwing late across his body on the run. It was an ugly pick too, the kind you just shake your head and say, "Kid you can't make that mistake there, you just can't." Kentucky iced the game away with some good first down running to kill the remainder of the clock.
So what did I learn? I learned that South Carolina is likely in a better place with Orth than Mitch at the QB spot, and I wonder if they wouldn't have won the game outright if Orth had simply started. I questioned Mitch after last week's game and I stand by it. He's awful. I also learned that SC's offensive line is going to have fits with anybody who can run a blitz package effectively. At one point #51 their RT tried to cut block a blitzing corner, whiffed completely, and then stood around looking ashamed as his QB got planted like a lawn dart. It was like watching a really good matador or a really terrible football play all in one.
I learned that Kentucky is no longer the pushover you might think in today's SEC. Chalking up easy victory on this team is anything but with a guy like Towles throwing the ball. He looks more settled than ever as a Junior, and his 3-headed running attack takes a lot of pressure off him. If teams try to play too tight on the run, he can go over the top. If they get too soft, he can swing it to a WR screen. But the downside for Kentucky is their run defense simply isn't going to be good enough against the better teams unless they sell out. And in an SEC where the strength of most teams is pounding you with the run, they will have a hard time playing catchup as teams dominate the ground.
I also learned that if you want to beat South Carolina, their secondary is one step above complete garbage. It's all you can eat off these corners, and any team that can throw the ball around will eat their lunch all year long. Fortunately for them, none of the teams in the SEC East actually know how to throw the ball around except maybe Missouri and Kentucky. But Clemson does, and that game may cause Spurrier to retire.
All in all, I think Kentucky absolutely earned this win, and this was no accident. If they'd cleaned up the stupid mistakes in the second half, it wouldn't have been close.
And that's going to drive Steve Spurrier nuts.
Friday, September 11, 2015
Week 2 SEC Picks!
Well, the first week went about as I expected (very meh), expect the coinflips went really poorly. I went 2-3 on the single unit picks, so I'm down a unit. But that's on the first week with little info. In Week 2 we have slightly more info, but I'm still not going to be making a ton of suggestions on plays. It's usually after Week 3 that we have some real games that have been played, and we start to ramp it up.
Anyway here are the plays!
1 Unit Picks:
Missouri v. Arkansas State +11.5 - I like MISSOURI -11.5 in this game. I realize that Arkansas State has had some success in the past, but Missouri can score and the spread seems a little low for this type of game. Missouri doesn't get a ton of respect in that regard.
East Carolina v. Florida -21 - I like EAST CAROLINA +21 in this game. They played in a bowl game and the gators won by 8. The Gators are switching QBs. East Carolina is one of the tougher teams when it comes to spreads 4-2 ATS as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in September, and 8-3 ATS against non-conference teams.
Georgia v. Vanderbilt +21 - I like GEORGIA -21 in this game. Vanderbilt is awful. AWFUL. They covered in the past in these kind of games because James Franklin was there. But James Franklin is at Penn State and Vandy can't score. Georgia can, and in droves. If the defense is anything like we saw before, Georgia wins by 35.
Coin Flip Games:
I won't say much about these because they are just that, coin flips. We'll know more when they've played some real teams.
Tennessee v. Oklahoma -0.5 - Oklahoma -0.5
South Carolina v. Kentucky +7.5 - South Carolina -7.5
Fresno State v. Ole Miss -28.5 - Fresno State +28.5
Alabama v. Middle Tennessee +34.5 - Middle Tennessee +34.5
Toledo v. Arkansas -21.5 - Toledo +21.5
Texas A&M v. Ball State +29.5 - Ball State +29.5
LSU v. Mississippi State +3.5 - LSU -3.5
Anyway here are the plays!
1 Unit Picks:
Missouri v. Arkansas State +11.5 - I like MISSOURI -11.5 in this game. I realize that Arkansas State has had some success in the past, but Missouri can score and the spread seems a little low for this type of game. Missouri doesn't get a ton of respect in that regard.
East Carolina v. Florida -21 - I like EAST CAROLINA +21 in this game. They played in a bowl game and the gators won by 8. The Gators are switching QBs. East Carolina is one of the tougher teams when it comes to spreads 4-2 ATS as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in September, and 8-3 ATS against non-conference teams.
Georgia v. Vanderbilt +21 - I like GEORGIA -21 in this game. Vanderbilt is awful. AWFUL. They covered in the past in these kind of games because James Franklin was there. But James Franklin is at Penn State and Vandy can't score. Georgia can, and in droves. If the defense is anything like we saw before, Georgia wins by 35.
Coin Flip Games:
I won't say much about these because they are just that, coin flips. We'll know more when they've played some real teams.
Tennessee v. Oklahoma -0.5 - Oklahoma -0.5
South Carolina v. Kentucky +7.5 - South Carolina -7.5
Fresno State v. Ole Miss -28.5 - Fresno State +28.5
Alabama v. Middle Tennessee +34.5 - Middle Tennessee +34.5
Toledo v. Arkansas -21.5 - Toledo +21.5
Texas A&M v. Ball State +29.5 - Ball State +29.5
LSU v. Mississippi State +3.5 - LSU -3.5
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