Let's be honest, most of the SEC games suck this weekend. You've got the Georgia-Florida game, and that's about it. You MIGHT be excited about Ole Miss and Auburn, but Ole Miss lost to Memphis and Auburn is out of contention for everything. LSU and Bama are off this week. So it's a cavalcade of mediocre matchups with one big game that will likely decide the East. SC and A&M? Should be a blowout. Tennessee and Kentucky? Snoozers.
I lost 2 units last week because Missouri screwed me. They've activated Maty Mauk now from what I'm hearing. Well no crap. I guess getting whomped defensively by Vandy in their first SEC win in what seems like forever would do that. I should have known better in this bizarre season. 4 units down total now thru Week 9, and it seems fitting given how many crazy upsets we've seen. Excuses, excuses. On to the picks! No 2 unit plays this week since it's mostly low key matchups.
1 Unit Plays:
Ole Miss @ Auburn +7.5: I like AUBURN +7.5 in this game. This is simply a system play. One, I like home dogs in this crazy season. Two, I tend to shy away from any favorite on the road having to pay over the TD. Three, Ole Miss got smoked in their last two road games at Florida and Memphis, so I question their ability to travel.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M -16.5: I like TEXAS A&M -16.5 in this game. Texas A&M is a home favorite by a bunch coming off two losses in a row while they looked offensively bereft. But A&M is 4-1 this season as a favorite, while South Carolina has already lost a head coach, and is 0-3 ATS on the road. The number is high, but it's worth a one unit play.
Georgia v. Florida -3: I like GEORGIA +3 in the game. Logic would tell you not to take the Dawgs in this game and bet the Gators based on their defense. However, this game is anything but logical. 2 of the last 4 years, the team that was lower ranked won the game. It's about as 50-50 as you can make it every year, and with the exception of 2014, it's usually close. The Dawgs also won 3 of the last 4, so they've done well in this series of late. I'm taking the Dawgs in an upset, and I think Richt will shuffle his QBs around.
Vanderbilt @ Houston -12.5: I like HOUSTON -12.5 in this game. This is the best offense Vandy will see all year, and Houston is undefeated for a reason. I'm going with Houston because they are 4-2 so far as the favorite, and even though Vandy is 4-1-1 as a dog, they've played teams like Mizzou and South Carolina that have zero offensive firepower.
Tennessee @ Kentucky -9: I like TENNESSEE - 9 in this game. Kentucky is awful against the spread this year. 1-4 at home, 2-5 overall. Tennessee is 2-1 as a favorite, 1-0-1 on the road. Yes, it's two scores and that gives me pause, but I think Tennessee has finally settled into a role for Josh Dobbs that works, and their defense is improving against the run.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
SEC Week 9 Preview: Georgia v. Florida
It's that time again. Time for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! But unlike the last few years, this game will likely determine the winner of the SEC East instead of Mizzouri back-dooring their way to the Georgia Dome.
I'm hearing a lot of comments about how Georgia has no chance in this game, and that Florida is going to stomp them, and how many fans are selling their tickets. I've been going to the game for 15 years, so I can understand the sentiment. The walk out of Jacksonville Stadium after a loss is unlike any walk in college football. It's horrifically tragic as you shuffle past the Florida fans screaming all kinds of Hell at you, and another year of knowing your season is likely over. But the win? The walking out win is just as opposite of a high. Fans chanting it's great to be a Georgia Bulldog all the way down the ramps as you spill out into the streets to "destroy some property tonight." In the words of the departed Larry Munson.
But this isn't an article about why I'm going to the game, and I am. Again. This is a preview of the game and why I think it's closer than many fans who've given up might believe. For starters, Vegas has set the line at -3 in favor of Florida, which means that the money setters don't think this is a blowout. Now many of you will say that Vegas also set the Alabama line with Georgia as a favorite, but remember that was before Georgia had played a single opponent that was worth a damn, and Alabama was coming off a direct loss. Vegas sets the line based on expectation early, and on results later.
Outside of Vegas, let's take a look at some of the factors in the game.
Quarterbacks:
Georgia has Greyson Lambert, the much maligned up-and-down transfer that's often proving to be a major liability throwing the ball against good defenses. Florida is on their second-string QB, Treon Harris, who just happened to be the QB that destroyed Georgia in that ass-whipping last year. Normally, I'd say that the more experienced QB would give Georgia an edge, but anybody who has watched Greyson play outside the South Carolina game knows that's not true. Greyson on film has the deer-in-the-headlights look when things start to go wrong, and his fatal flaw is that he starts to get happy feet and short-arm passes into the legs of receivers or the dirt. Florida's defense is certainly strong enough to give him a headache, but more on that later.
Harris could barely throw the ball when he played against Georgia last year. He was mostly a mobile threat who was helping the Gators run for 400+ yards on the Dawgs. Now? I watched him play in the LSU game, and even though he came out on the losing end, he looks like a much improved passer. Yes, he's still mobile, but he's using that to his advantage in the passing game rather than just a primary ability. Several plays feature Harris on the bootleg rollout, where he can survey the downfield receivers and make throws on the run. He's got a good enough arm to hit his guys in stride, or pull it down and take off with his speed on the outside. It will be Hell on the Georgia defense trying to contain this kid. ADVANTAGE: Florida.
Runningbacks:
Nick Chubb's knee isn't going to be better any time soon, which means that Sony Michel is now the primary back for UGA. That's a downgrade from Chubb, and there's no way to sugar-coat that. However, Sony is a good runner in his own right, and he's very shifty where Chubb can just bust one right over the the top of you. Shifty may be better against this defense, because the Florida bigs aren't going to get bowled over any time soon. Still Sony can turn the corner with the best of them, and if he gets lose, nobody will catch him.
Florida will throw Kelvin Taylor, son of pro Fred Taylor, at the Dawgs. While I loved the pedigree, I've been completely unimpressed by the kid every time I've seen him play. And with good reason. To put it mildly, Taylor will only get you as many yards as are blocked. That means that when the hole is there, he's hitting it, but he's not the type of back who makes many people miss. It shows up in his stats too, as he's only a 3.6 yards per carry guy as the primary ball-carrier. However, in short yardage scenarios near the goal loan or on conversions, Taylor can very much get the job done. He's got the TDs to prove it. Still, I think Georgia has the better back even as the backup. ADVANTAGE: Georgia
Receivers:
Georgia has Malcolm Mitchell. And that's about it. The rest of the receivers have been hot garbage for the most part, and made Lambert look way worse than he should when he's holding the ball too long. Terry Godwin sort of emerged as a target against Missouri, but that's because Missouri was trying to shut down Mitchell, who is the only real home run threat the Dawgs have.
Florida has Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Callaway, Jake McGee and Brandon Powell. None of them are better than Mitchell, but all of them are better than anything else that UGA will put out on the field. They run decent routes, manage to get to the middle of the zone effectively, and they can make life much easier for Harris as a group. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Defense:
Do I really need to go into depth? Pick any game and watch Florida's defense. Then watch the trainwreck that is Georgia on defense the second they face an opponent with a winning record. Even against the best runningback in the league, Florida managed to keep the game close and "contain" Leonard Fournette to a mild 180 yards and 2 TDs. But the game came down to a fake field goal. And Florida's defense is giving up 18 points a game against winning teams. Georgia is giving up 38 a game. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Florida wins if:
They run the ball down Georgia's throat and use Treon Harris in a run-pass option that keeps the Georgia defenders confused all day. Which hopefully won't be easy since Georgia remembers all too well how many running yards they gave up last year. Make no mistake, Georgia can't score enough points on Florida if they can put up 28 on the board. Their defense will cover the rest, and it should be close enough that they will have to.
Georgia Wins if:
They turn Florida over, and Greyson Lambert has the game of his life. Yes, it's going to take that I think. I don't believe an average performance by the QB will win this game. I also don't think it's impossible either if the UGA receivers can actually catch the ball. I've seen Lambert in games look like he knows exactly what he wants to do, but he needs the support of his ground game and his play-caller to not put him in terrible positions. I think Florida knows that Georgia wants to run, and they'll do everything to shut that down, making Lambert beat them. And to do that, Lambert will have to have a big day moving the chains, and converting in the end zone.
Picks on Thursday this time, since I'm heading out of town. And hopefully I won't make the mistake of picking Missouri anymore, who gave Vandy their first SEC win in forever. Idiots. Not that I'm bitter.
Ok, maybe a little.
I'm hearing a lot of comments about how Georgia has no chance in this game, and that Florida is going to stomp them, and how many fans are selling their tickets. I've been going to the game for 15 years, so I can understand the sentiment. The walk out of Jacksonville Stadium after a loss is unlike any walk in college football. It's horrifically tragic as you shuffle past the Florida fans screaming all kinds of Hell at you, and another year of knowing your season is likely over. But the win? The walking out win is just as opposite of a high. Fans chanting it's great to be a Georgia Bulldog all the way down the ramps as you spill out into the streets to "destroy some property tonight." In the words of the departed Larry Munson.
But this isn't an article about why I'm going to the game, and I am. Again. This is a preview of the game and why I think it's closer than many fans who've given up might believe. For starters, Vegas has set the line at -3 in favor of Florida, which means that the money setters don't think this is a blowout. Now many of you will say that Vegas also set the Alabama line with Georgia as a favorite, but remember that was before Georgia had played a single opponent that was worth a damn, and Alabama was coming off a direct loss. Vegas sets the line based on expectation early, and on results later.
Outside of Vegas, let's take a look at some of the factors in the game.
Quarterbacks:
Georgia has Greyson Lambert, the much maligned up-and-down transfer that's often proving to be a major liability throwing the ball against good defenses. Florida is on their second-string QB, Treon Harris, who just happened to be the QB that destroyed Georgia in that ass-whipping last year. Normally, I'd say that the more experienced QB would give Georgia an edge, but anybody who has watched Greyson play outside the South Carolina game knows that's not true. Greyson on film has the deer-in-the-headlights look when things start to go wrong, and his fatal flaw is that he starts to get happy feet and short-arm passes into the legs of receivers or the dirt. Florida's defense is certainly strong enough to give him a headache, but more on that later.
Harris could barely throw the ball when he played against Georgia last year. He was mostly a mobile threat who was helping the Gators run for 400+ yards on the Dawgs. Now? I watched him play in the LSU game, and even though he came out on the losing end, he looks like a much improved passer. Yes, he's still mobile, but he's using that to his advantage in the passing game rather than just a primary ability. Several plays feature Harris on the bootleg rollout, where he can survey the downfield receivers and make throws on the run. He's got a good enough arm to hit his guys in stride, or pull it down and take off with his speed on the outside. It will be Hell on the Georgia defense trying to contain this kid. ADVANTAGE: Florida.
Runningbacks:
Nick Chubb's knee isn't going to be better any time soon, which means that Sony Michel is now the primary back for UGA. That's a downgrade from Chubb, and there's no way to sugar-coat that. However, Sony is a good runner in his own right, and he's very shifty where Chubb can just bust one right over the the top of you. Shifty may be better against this defense, because the Florida bigs aren't going to get bowled over any time soon. Still Sony can turn the corner with the best of them, and if he gets lose, nobody will catch him.
Florida will throw Kelvin Taylor, son of pro Fred Taylor, at the Dawgs. While I loved the pedigree, I've been completely unimpressed by the kid every time I've seen him play. And with good reason. To put it mildly, Taylor will only get you as many yards as are blocked. That means that when the hole is there, he's hitting it, but he's not the type of back who makes many people miss. It shows up in his stats too, as he's only a 3.6 yards per carry guy as the primary ball-carrier. However, in short yardage scenarios near the goal loan or on conversions, Taylor can very much get the job done. He's got the TDs to prove it. Still, I think Georgia has the better back even as the backup. ADVANTAGE: Georgia
Receivers:
Georgia has Malcolm Mitchell. And that's about it. The rest of the receivers have been hot garbage for the most part, and made Lambert look way worse than he should when he's holding the ball too long. Terry Godwin sort of emerged as a target against Missouri, but that's because Missouri was trying to shut down Mitchell, who is the only real home run threat the Dawgs have.
Florida has Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Callaway, Jake McGee and Brandon Powell. None of them are better than Mitchell, but all of them are better than anything else that UGA will put out on the field. They run decent routes, manage to get to the middle of the zone effectively, and they can make life much easier for Harris as a group. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Defense:
Do I really need to go into depth? Pick any game and watch Florida's defense. Then watch the trainwreck that is Georgia on defense the second they face an opponent with a winning record. Even against the best runningback in the league, Florida managed to keep the game close and "contain" Leonard Fournette to a mild 180 yards and 2 TDs. But the game came down to a fake field goal. And Florida's defense is giving up 18 points a game against winning teams. Georgia is giving up 38 a game. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Florida wins if:
They run the ball down Georgia's throat and use Treon Harris in a run-pass option that keeps the Georgia defenders confused all day. Which hopefully won't be easy since Georgia remembers all too well how many running yards they gave up last year. Make no mistake, Georgia can't score enough points on Florida if they can put up 28 on the board. Their defense will cover the rest, and it should be close enough that they will have to.
Georgia Wins if:
They turn Florida over, and Greyson Lambert has the game of his life. Yes, it's going to take that I think. I don't believe an average performance by the QB will win this game. I also don't think it's impossible either if the UGA receivers can actually catch the ball. I've seen Lambert in games look like he knows exactly what he wants to do, but he needs the support of his ground game and his play-caller to not put him in terrible positions. I think Florida knows that Georgia wants to run, and they'll do everything to shut that down, making Lambert beat them. And to do that, Lambert will have to have a big day moving the chains, and converting in the end zone.
Picks on Thursday this time, since I'm heading out of town. And hopefully I won't make the mistake of picking Missouri anymore, who gave Vandy their first SEC win in forever. Idiots. Not that I'm bitter.
Ok, maybe a little.
Friday, October 23, 2015
SEC Picks Week 8!
Last week I finally broke through with a winning week and picked up a unit. So we're 2 units under going into Week 8, and looking to break through into the black. Here we go!
2 Unit plays:
Missouri @ Vanderbilt +2.5: I like MISSOURI -2.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is amazing. Their offense is horrific. However, Vandy's offense is also horrific, and they might be starting a freshman QB as well for the first time. With that in mind, I think even Missouri can win a game 3-0.
1 Unit Plays:
Tennessee @ Alabama -15.5: I like TENNESSEE +15.5 in this game. It's just too many points for me when Tennessee has been playing everyone close, and Alabama honestly has been better on the road than inside their own building. Not sure why that is, but Alabama hasn't covered much at home, so I'm going with a confident Tennessee team to keep it within 2 scores.
Auburn @ Arkansas -6.5: I like AUBURN +6.5 in this game. I know it hasn't seemed like Auburn can find their butts with both hands, but I'm even less convinced that Arkansas knows what they are doing now that they 2-4 on the season. I'm never going to lay points on a team with 2 wins after 6 games. Ever.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss -5.5: I like OLE MISS -5.5 in this game. It's less than a TD, and Ole Miss while they did lose to Memphis and Florida, they did it on the road. Texas A&M hasn't played a true road game in a hostile stadium yet. With that in mind and a low home spread, I'm betting on a rebel bounce-back and an A&M road flop.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State -12: I like KENTUCKY +12 in this game. Kentucky likes to hang around. And Mississippi State couldn't win by more than 8 against an Auburn team that at the time could barely function. I'm taking the points, even if Kentucky is attached to them.
2 Unit plays:
Missouri @ Vanderbilt +2.5: I like MISSOURI -2.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is amazing. Their offense is horrific. However, Vandy's offense is also horrific, and they might be starting a freshman QB as well for the first time. With that in mind, I think even Missouri can win a game 3-0.
1 Unit Plays:
Tennessee @ Alabama -15.5: I like TENNESSEE +15.5 in this game. It's just too many points for me when Tennessee has been playing everyone close, and Alabama honestly has been better on the road than inside their own building. Not sure why that is, but Alabama hasn't covered much at home, so I'm going with a confident Tennessee team to keep it within 2 scores.
Auburn @ Arkansas -6.5: I like AUBURN +6.5 in this game. I know it hasn't seemed like Auburn can find their butts with both hands, but I'm even less convinced that Arkansas knows what they are doing now that they 2-4 on the season. I'm never going to lay points on a team with 2 wins after 6 games. Ever.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss -5.5: I like OLE MISS -5.5 in this game. It's less than a TD, and Ole Miss while they did lose to Memphis and Florida, they did it on the road. Texas A&M hasn't played a true road game in a hostile stadium yet. With that in mind and a low home spread, I'm betting on a rebel bounce-back and an A&M road flop.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State -12: I like KENTUCKY +12 in this game. Kentucky likes to hang around. And Mississippi State couldn't win by more than 8 against an Auburn team that at the time could barely function. I'm taking the points, even if Kentucky is attached to them.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
SEC Preview Week 8: Tennessee v. Alabama
It’s been several weeks of looking at film now, and I’ve had
several requests to switch up the tactics on the blog a bit. I tend to agree
that after a while, just going over film seems redundant, so starting this week
I’m taking my game film looks and projecting more on forward looking previews
of the upcoming biggest games. With that in mind, I’m starting with the matchup
between Alabama and Tennessee this weekend on CBS at 3:30PM EST.
Alabama Strengths:
Alabama is coming off a rather simple looking win against a
Texas A&M team that never stood a chance against their running attack or
their defense. And those elements of rushing and defense just happen to be the
strongest points of Alabama right now. In the game against A&M, Derrick
Henry went off for 236 yards on 32 carries and 2 TDs. In the first TD he
scored, he busted loose for 55 yards and made the A&M defense look
absolutely ridiculous.
But the true ridiculousness was what the Alabama secondary
put on A&M’s passing attack. I’ve said before that I think the secondary
was an issue. They still may have problems against a higher tempo team, but
right now they are coming together in a hurry, and a lot of that is the play of
Minkah Fitzpatrick who had 2 pick-6’s in the game. Couple that with the fact that
the Alabama run defense has been stingy all year, and you’re left with very few
options on how to advance the ball.
Alabama Weaknesses:
Yes, they have them. For one, turnovers have been an issue
with the Tide before, and it’s the reason they lost that game against Ole Miss.
Alabama’s 12th in most turnovers given away in the SEC, but they are
4th in turnover margin because they can take so many back on their
own side. However, if you can get Alabama to fumble the ball, or force their QB
Jake Coker to make some bad downfield decisions, you can beat them handily by
capitalizing on the errors. Still, Coker is improving game to game, and his
downfield passing attack has been getting better since torching UGA in that downpour.
Against A&M he was basically meaningless because the Aggies
couldn’t stop the run, so they never really had to use him as a threat.
However, he can make mistakes if pushed and pressured. I’m not sure that Coker
can’t go from asset to liability in the blink of an eye.
The other big weakness for Alabama is something I don’t
usually see out of a Nick Saban team, and that’s penalties. Did you know that
Alabama is 13th in the SEC in most penalty yards a game, followed by
LSU at 14th? And yet those teams both look like they will be playing
each other for the SEC West title. By contrast, their opponent Tennessee is
least penalized, and it hasn’t helped them defeat many SEC teams this year. So
perhaps it’s an overblown stat, but I can’t help but think that as you advance,
every penalty becomes larger. And undisciplined teams make more mistakes.
Tennessee Strengths:
Honestly, Tennessee’s biggest strength in my eyes is that
they know how to move the ball well. That doesn’t translate to scoring points
as often as it should, but they 4th in the SEC in yardage and
extremely balanced between the run and pass. Jalen Hurd can get tough yardage
when they need it, and Josh Dobbs is mobile enough to make people miss in the
middle of the field on the run as well. Plus, if Josh can get his first read
open, he’s more than capable of making the early throw before taking off.
Tennessee Weaknesses:
There’s a lot more of these unfortunately. Get Dobbs to a
second read and watch the carnage. Pressure him all day and see how fast that
confidence from the UGA game crumbles. Also, Hurd has plenty of muscle to get
extra yards, but he’s not Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb that can create space
and make everyone on a good defense miss. He’s a good running back right now
with the potential to be great if he can get some more blocking help.
The defense for Tennessee is also a problem in that they
can’t get other teams off the field consistently enough. Tennessee’s 13th
in yardage, tied for 12th in points against. And the horrifying
thing is they haven’t really played that many good offenses yet. Georgia proved
they aren’t worth a damn against a Missouri team that held them to 9 points,
and they managed to put up 31 on that Tennessee defense.
Also, the Tennessee team has been notorious this season for
not being able to close out games. Georgia was the exception to the rule as
Dobbs had a career day shredding that Dawg defense. But against OU, Florida,
and Arkansas? Fourth quarter failures and two TD blown leads were the norm. The
upside for Tennessee is that Alabama isn’t likely to give them a big lead to
lose. So maybe that’s a positive given how they came back on Georgia.
Alabama Wins If:
They run the ball down Tennessee’s throat and don’t turn it
over. Simple as that. You don’t need to fling it much against Tennessee to beat
their defense, and Alabama isn’t know for doing that. I seriously doubt that
Hurd is going to find any space against this Bama front, since nobody else has.
With that in mind, it’s doing to fall to Dobbs to win the game for Tennessee,
and I’ve seen what happens when a mediocre QB has to try and get
one-dimensional against Alabama. It’s pick-6 city all day long.
Tennessee Wins if:
Jake Coker gets cocky and starts making mistakes, and they
sell out to stop Derrick Henry. Tennessee will only win this game if it’s ugly.
I’m talking like 16-13 kind of ugly. Tennessee needs for Alabama to try to
grind, and make life hell on that strategy. They want the ball in Coker’s hands
and they want Lane Kiffin to get frustrated enough to try something dumb. All
that CAN happen, and if it does you just need Dobbs to make some plays late
like he did in the UGA game. Basically, Tennessee wants the ball with 2 minutes
left and a chance to win the game with a TD. IF that happens? I think they can
get it.
Picks on Friday, I’ll let you know which way I’m leaning
against the spread. This has the potential to be a fun game to watch, or a
complete asswhipping you turn off in the 3rd quarter. We’ll know by
halftime I think.
Friday, October 16, 2015
SEC Picks Week 7!
Alright, so we lost another unit last week with the Dawgs blowing a 21 point lead. So I'm feeling a bit snakebit. Change of tactics though, I'm going to go straight 1 unit bets this week and see how we roll. Let's hit it!
1 Unit Plays:
Alabama @ Texas A&M +4 - I like ALABAMA -4 in this game. The majority of the public would swing to A&M given what we've seen, but they are mostly untested in the SEC and Alabama's offense is getting stronger.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -3.5 - I like VANDERBILT +3.5 in this game. South Carolina is bad. That should be reason enough. Now with a new coach in interim? I'm just going with that as a reason to be against them.
Missouri @ Georgia -16.5 - I like MISSOURI +16.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is great and the Dawgs offense is one-dimensional. If the Dawgs can score more than 30 points they will cover easily, but Missouri has only allowed 21 as a max this season.
Florida @ LSU -7 - I like LSU -7 in this game. I would normally take Florida, but the suspension puts me off them untilt hey can prove they can win with their updated offense. And I know Florida doesn't run the ball well.
Let's go get em!
1 Unit Plays:
Alabama @ Texas A&M +4 - I like ALABAMA -4 in this game. The majority of the public would swing to A&M given what we've seen, but they are mostly untested in the SEC and Alabama's offense is getting stronger.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -3.5 - I like VANDERBILT +3.5 in this game. South Carolina is bad. That should be reason enough. Now with a new coach in interim? I'm just going with that as a reason to be against them.
Missouri @ Georgia -16.5 - I like MISSOURI +16.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is great and the Dawgs offense is one-dimensional. If the Dawgs can score more than 30 points they will cover easily, but Missouri has only allowed 21 as a max this season.
Florida @ LSU -7 - I like LSU -7 in this game. I would normally take Florida, but the suspension puts me off them untilt hey can prove they can win with their updated offense. And I know Florida doesn't run the ball well.
Let's go get em!
Thursday, October 15, 2015
LSU Tigers v. South Carolina Gamecocks: Week 6
I made the decision that I'm going to follow the two best teams in the East and the West weekly in these breakdowns, and whatever teams they happen to be playing going forward, because it's honestly about who is going to make it to the Dome. In that regard, the current East leader is Florida, and the current West leader is LSU. If they are off or lose, I'll take on the next teams down for parity sake. But if your team has two losses right now? I don't see much point in putting them in the discussion currently.
With that said, LSU looked amazing on the ground against South Carolina on their way to a 45-24 win, and that should come as no surprise. South Carolina made everyone look good this year, and that's partly why Steve Spurrier finally decided to retire mid-year. However, there's another story to this game, and it's not one you'll hear much about unless you watched it or you're an LSU fan. The starting Fullback and lead blocker for LSU, John David Moore, went down with a knee injury that could sideline him for 3-4 weeks. He's the main blocker that springs #7 Leonard Fournette out of the power-I formation. That had major consequences in this game as they had to replace Moore with #47 Bry'Kiethon Mouton (real name, yes) and he looked woefully unprepared to make the key blocks. It's probably why they took Fournette out at the half and barely let him play at all in the third and fourth quarters.
One thing I really wanted to see from this LSU team is how their passing game is developing, because at the beginning of the season it was non-existant. At no point in their first five wins did LSU throw for more than 100 yards. So against what is arguably the worst defense in the SEC, how would they fare? Answer, just fine. Not great, but fine. QB Brandon Harris was able to fling it around for 228 yards and 2 TDs, which is unfortunately pretty average against this SC defense. I noticed that Harris does do very well on early quick reads and passes, and even managed to make an NFL-style fade route throw to his best receiver Malachi Dupre for a TD. Dupre is the obvious go-to for Harris, so if you're game-planning against LSU on the pass (as if you would have the time after worrying about Fournette) then he's the guy you attempt to take away.
Fournette continues to be as advertised, making tough runs in the middle, shedding blockers, and putting his foot in the ground while making people miss. His lone TD on the 158 yard day was a long 87 yard run after his made two secondary players miss to the outside, cut it back in, and then was off to the races. Normally, a secondary player can chase down a guy of Fournette's size, but he just turned on the jets and never looked back. If he's even, he's leaving as they say. But even after Fournette went out, #5 Darrius Guice (pronounced G-ICE like mice, the names on this team are insane, thanks Cajuns) went off for 161 yards of his own pretty much all in the second half. LSU can run in any down and formation, but they seem to love to go power-I strong side on first down and beat you to death for 3-4 yards minimum. At 2nd and medium, it's anybody's guess, and that's what makes the offense flow so well.
However, the downside to LSU's offense is that if you get them in longer downs, they are hosed. They look almost as bad as a Georgia Tech team trying to throw the ball at times with Harris' accuracy issues. Yes, Harris CAN make throws, but the longer a play goes, the chances of a good pass almost approach zero. The only option after 3-4 seconds for Harris is to take off running, which he is actually pretty good at. But you do not want him throwing on the run. That way lies madness. What that does bring up to me as a fan though is how LSU will react when a stellar defense takes the run away. I've watched Alabama and Florida play, and they are both quite capable of shutting down the running aspect of your team. If you make Harris have to win? I think that's where LSU falls apart.
The other glaring weakness is that LSU's secondary looks woeful. They let South Carolina put up two very bad secondary breakdown TD's on them, and each time it was because they were completely out of position. #13 Dwayne Thomas has an especially tough day, but he was covering Pharoh Cooper most of the time. Granted, Pharoh Cooper is a stud athlete and can make people look silly, but this is South Carolina's offense we're talking about with their 2nd string QB. And they managed to put up more points on LSU than they have on any SEC team so far, including Kentucky. That's not a good sign for this defense, which I expected to look better. Even worse, they got no real sacks or pressure on the SC QB until the very end of the game. I was wondering if maybe Les Miles is playing possum knowing they have Florida next week, but then I remember Les Miles probably isn't that smart.
The other issue for LSU was special teams. They got torched by South Carolina for a kickoff return TD, and then in the second half they gave up a surprise onside kick, but it was called back due to SC being offsides. Still, it's not a good look. They need to shore that up or they'll find themselves on the losing end of a bad special teams play very soon.
Overall though? LSU can run that rock. And if you can't stop them from running it, you're in for a very long day of watching #7 run around, over, or through you. Still, I'm not sure we're looking at the SEC champion in LSU unless the passing game continues to develop. Because at some point the running game won't work, or the defense will give up too many plays in a shootout, and they'll have to play catchup. And what then?
I guess we'll find out if it ever happens.
With that said, LSU looked amazing on the ground against South Carolina on their way to a 45-24 win, and that should come as no surprise. South Carolina made everyone look good this year, and that's partly why Steve Spurrier finally decided to retire mid-year. However, there's another story to this game, and it's not one you'll hear much about unless you watched it or you're an LSU fan. The starting Fullback and lead blocker for LSU, John David Moore, went down with a knee injury that could sideline him for 3-4 weeks. He's the main blocker that springs #7 Leonard Fournette out of the power-I formation. That had major consequences in this game as they had to replace Moore with #47 Bry'Kiethon Mouton (real name, yes) and he looked woefully unprepared to make the key blocks. It's probably why they took Fournette out at the half and barely let him play at all in the third and fourth quarters.
One thing I really wanted to see from this LSU team is how their passing game is developing, because at the beginning of the season it was non-existant. At no point in their first five wins did LSU throw for more than 100 yards. So against what is arguably the worst defense in the SEC, how would they fare? Answer, just fine. Not great, but fine. QB Brandon Harris was able to fling it around for 228 yards and 2 TDs, which is unfortunately pretty average against this SC defense. I noticed that Harris does do very well on early quick reads and passes, and even managed to make an NFL-style fade route throw to his best receiver Malachi Dupre for a TD. Dupre is the obvious go-to for Harris, so if you're game-planning against LSU on the pass (as if you would have the time after worrying about Fournette) then he's the guy you attempt to take away.
Fournette continues to be as advertised, making tough runs in the middle, shedding blockers, and putting his foot in the ground while making people miss. His lone TD on the 158 yard day was a long 87 yard run after his made two secondary players miss to the outside, cut it back in, and then was off to the races. Normally, a secondary player can chase down a guy of Fournette's size, but he just turned on the jets and never looked back. If he's even, he's leaving as they say. But even after Fournette went out, #5 Darrius Guice (pronounced G-ICE like mice, the names on this team are insane, thanks Cajuns) went off for 161 yards of his own pretty much all in the second half. LSU can run in any down and formation, but they seem to love to go power-I strong side on first down and beat you to death for 3-4 yards minimum. At 2nd and medium, it's anybody's guess, and that's what makes the offense flow so well.
However, the downside to LSU's offense is that if you get them in longer downs, they are hosed. They look almost as bad as a Georgia Tech team trying to throw the ball at times with Harris' accuracy issues. Yes, Harris CAN make throws, but the longer a play goes, the chances of a good pass almost approach zero. The only option after 3-4 seconds for Harris is to take off running, which he is actually pretty good at. But you do not want him throwing on the run. That way lies madness. What that does bring up to me as a fan though is how LSU will react when a stellar defense takes the run away. I've watched Alabama and Florida play, and they are both quite capable of shutting down the running aspect of your team. If you make Harris have to win? I think that's where LSU falls apart.
The other glaring weakness is that LSU's secondary looks woeful. They let South Carolina put up two very bad secondary breakdown TD's on them, and each time it was because they were completely out of position. #13 Dwayne Thomas has an especially tough day, but he was covering Pharoh Cooper most of the time. Granted, Pharoh Cooper is a stud athlete and can make people look silly, but this is South Carolina's offense we're talking about with their 2nd string QB. And they managed to put up more points on LSU than they have on any SEC team so far, including Kentucky. That's not a good sign for this defense, which I expected to look better. Even worse, they got no real sacks or pressure on the SC QB until the very end of the game. I was wondering if maybe Les Miles is playing possum knowing they have Florida next week, but then I remember Les Miles probably isn't that smart.
The other issue for LSU was special teams. They got torched by South Carolina for a kickoff return TD, and then in the second half they gave up a surprise onside kick, but it was called back due to SC being offsides. Still, it's not a good look. They need to shore that up or they'll find themselves on the losing end of a bad special teams play very soon.
Overall though? LSU can run that rock. And if you can't stop them from running it, you're in for a very long day of watching #7 run around, over, or through you. Still, I'm not sure we're looking at the SEC champion in LSU unless the passing game continues to develop. Because at some point the running game won't work, or the defense will give up too many plays in a shootout, and they'll have to play catchup. And what then?
I guess we'll find out if it ever happens.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Florida Gators v. Missouri Tigers: Week 6 Analysis
Originally, I didn't think I'd look at this tape because Will Grier the Florida QB has been suspended for the season. So, anything we see here is going to be way different than the game against LSU which I plan on reviewing. However, I haven't done much for Mizzou this year, so I figured I'd take a look at their young freshman QB, and their overall defensive structure. Sorry Florida fans, but I'll get to you next week when you play LSU.
Let's begin with the stuff most people want to hear about, the Missouri QB Drew Lock. He's a true freshman who was pressed into service by coach Gary Pinkel because his veteran QB Maty Mauk decided to break some rules. What rules I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that Gary was sick enough of Maty to let a true freshman play QB, so I'm guessing Maty got drunk and tried to violate one of his houseplants or something.
Anyway, Drew Lock's main attraction is that he's got a great arm. At times during the broadcast Jesse Palmer was giving him high praise as having an NFL-style cannon. I'm not sure it's THAT good, but he can certainly air it out. And that's both a blessing and a curse. Because he's a true freshman, he doesn't have all the touch accuracy that you'd expect from a true starting college QB, and that led him to have several overthrows in this game. That would be the tendency when you're a gunslinger because you know you're not going to short-hop any receivers. As Lock learns to control the cannon, he'll find it easier to put those throws on the money.
The other thing about Lock is that he looks like he's 12. You see him in the helmet and you think he's going to sell you chocolate bars for the band. And his youth really worked against him in another way in this game, because Florida's pass rush is relentless. One way to really disrupt a young passer is to get him off his spot in the pocket. I admire how Lock naturally moves and keeps his eyes downfield, but he's nowhere near experienced enough yet to make the throw on the run with consistency. That will come with time, but probably not during this season. However, if he's facing a team that doesn't move him? Like South Carolina for example? He looks like a world-beater making dink and dunk passes as will. It's death by 1000 cuts, and with the defense that Missouri has, paper cuts could be enough.
In essence, Lock is young. But the Missouri defense is not. And they are fierce. They spotted Florida 14 points very early on incredibly stupid personal foul penalties for a late hit and a face mask that kept drives alive. If they don't take those? I think the game likely goes to the half tied 3-3. The other Florida TD was on a pick 6, and that was the final score 21-3. To put it another way, after going down 14-3 in the first 10 minutes of the game, the Missouri defense allowed absolutely no offensive scores for the rest of the game. 50 minutes of pure defensive shutout. And that's not abnormal, as they lead the SEC in defensive points allowed. Ahead of even LSU and Alabama.
But why is the defense so good? Mainly because they trust the secondary, their entirely lineman are huge, and they have speed on the edges. And by trust their secondary, I mean they will press up on the line against receivers and take away the quick throws. Plus, and here's a big key, they can actually TACKLE. That sounds stupid, but if you're an SEC fan of a bad defense, you know exactly how huge that is with college players. Making one-on-one tackles, playing contain until you get some help, and having your secondary get involved in run defense? Those are hallmarks of this Missouri team, and they all showed up in the game against Florida.
A few defensive players made me stand up and take notice in this game, the first of which was #97 Josh Augusta. The dude is absolute enormous in the middle and a huge help as a space-eater and in run defense. He's 6'4" and listed at 335 pounds. I'm not sure I believe he's less than 350 just looking at him. Next is #91 DE Charles Harris, who had a sack in the game and 6 tackles. He's 6'2" and 255 pounds with good speed and agility. Harris has the ability to shed blocks with straight ahead moves, or in the case of his sack a very impressive inside spin-move. The last guy was #11 Aarion Penton, their best DB in my mind. He was involved everywhere, making tackles in the run game, breaking up passes, and making tackles on the edge, even blitzing at times.
But if the defense is this good, why are they losing games? Because the offense is a youthful looking train wreck. While Lock is learning his craft at QB, he's unfortunately saddled with several WR's who are just as young and learning their way. Talented? Sure. But talent doesn't help you figure out how to run the best routes. That comes from experience and coaching, both of which Gary Pinkel hasn't had the time yet to drill into this receiving core. They have size, all over 6'2", but most of their moves are straight ahead, relying on their body position to make plays. That works in high school. It doesn't work in college against teams with a pulse. Their best receiver is probably #2 Nate Brown with 4 TDs and 200+ yards on the season, but he's just a first year starting sophomore that had only one catch all day against this Florida defense. Against any and all secondaries with real talent, expect these guys to struggle.
The running game isn't much better. #21 Ish Witter is their main runningback, and Florida absolutely shut him down. Frankly, I wasn't impressed with the kid at all. Again, he's a starting sophomore with no real experience, but that doesn't usually stop runningbacks from showing something on film. The guy that DID show me something was #32 Russell Hansbrough. I'd be giving that guy more carries going forward if I'm running the show at Missouri. He's quick, hits the hole well, and managed to find several open spaces against a tough Florida run defense. He had a 26 yard run as his long in the game, and he averaged over 8 yards a carry. Yet, he only had 9 touches in the game for reasons unknown to me.
Overall, the main takeaway I have with Missouri is that the defense looks seasoned, tough, and ready to rumble. The offense looks the exact opposite: young, weak, and easily put off the field. If you're playing Missouri, you want to play them now rather than later, because every game Lock and these receivers put under their belt is going to make them better. I wouldn't be shocked if they get to a bowl game that Missouri finally puts it together and starts scoring some points.
Let's begin with the stuff most people want to hear about, the Missouri QB Drew Lock. He's a true freshman who was pressed into service by coach Gary Pinkel because his veteran QB Maty Mauk decided to break some rules. What rules I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that Gary was sick enough of Maty to let a true freshman play QB, so I'm guessing Maty got drunk and tried to violate one of his houseplants or something.
Anyway, Drew Lock's main attraction is that he's got a great arm. At times during the broadcast Jesse Palmer was giving him high praise as having an NFL-style cannon. I'm not sure it's THAT good, but he can certainly air it out. And that's both a blessing and a curse. Because he's a true freshman, he doesn't have all the touch accuracy that you'd expect from a true starting college QB, and that led him to have several overthrows in this game. That would be the tendency when you're a gunslinger because you know you're not going to short-hop any receivers. As Lock learns to control the cannon, he'll find it easier to put those throws on the money.
The other thing about Lock is that he looks like he's 12. You see him in the helmet and you think he's going to sell you chocolate bars for the band. And his youth really worked against him in another way in this game, because Florida's pass rush is relentless. One way to really disrupt a young passer is to get him off his spot in the pocket. I admire how Lock naturally moves and keeps his eyes downfield, but he's nowhere near experienced enough yet to make the throw on the run with consistency. That will come with time, but probably not during this season. However, if he's facing a team that doesn't move him? Like South Carolina for example? He looks like a world-beater making dink and dunk passes as will. It's death by 1000 cuts, and with the defense that Missouri has, paper cuts could be enough.
In essence, Lock is young. But the Missouri defense is not. And they are fierce. They spotted Florida 14 points very early on incredibly stupid personal foul penalties for a late hit and a face mask that kept drives alive. If they don't take those? I think the game likely goes to the half tied 3-3. The other Florida TD was on a pick 6, and that was the final score 21-3. To put it another way, after going down 14-3 in the first 10 minutes of the game, the Missouri defense allowed absolutely no offensive scores for the rest of the game. 50 minutes of pure defensive shutout. And that's not abnormal, as they lead the SEC in defensive points allowed. Ahead of even LSU and Alabama.
But why is the defense so good? Mainly because they trust the secondary, their entirely lineman are huge, and they have speed on the edges. And by trust their secondary, I mean they will press up on the line against receivers and take away the quick throws. Plus, and here's a big key, they can actually TACKLE. That sounds stupid, but if you're an SEC fan of a bad defense, you know exactly how huge that is with college players. Making one-on-one tackles, playing contain until you get some help, and having your secondary get involved in run defense? Those are hallmarks of this Missouri team, and they all showed up in the game against Florida.
A few defensive players made me stand up and take notice in this game, the first of which was #97 Josh Augusta. The dude is absolute enormous in the middle and a huge help as a space-eater and in run defense. He's 6'4" and listed at 335 pounds. I'm not sure I believe he's less than 350 just looking at him. Next is #91 DE Charles Harris, who had a sack in the game and 6 tackles. He's 6'2" and 255 pounds with good speed and agility. Harris has the ability to shed blocks with straight ahead moves, or in the case of his sack a very impressive inside spin-move. The last guy was #11 Aarion Penton, their best DB in my mind. He was involved everywhere, making tackles in the run game, breaking up passes, and making tackles on the edge, even blitzing at times.
But if the defense is this good, why are they losing games? Because the offense is a youthful looking train wreck. While Lock is learning his craft at QB, he's unfortunately saddled with several WR's who are just as young and learning their way. Talented? Sure. But talent doesn't help you figure out how to run the best routes. That comes from experience and coaching, both of which Gary Pinkel hasn't had the time yet to drill into this receiving core. They have size, all over 6'2", but most of their moves are straight ahead, relying on their body position to make plays. That works in high school. It doesn't work in college against teams with a pulse. Their best receiver is probably #2 Nate Brown with 4 TDs and 200+ yards on the season, but he's just a first year starting sophomore that had only one catch all day against this Florida defense. Against any and all secondaries with real talent, expect these guys to struggle.
The running game isn't much better. #21 Ish Witter is their main runningback, and Florida absolutely shut him down. Frankly, I wasn't impressed with the kid at all. Again, he's a starting sophomore with no real experience, but that doesn't usually stop runningbacks from showing something on film. The guy that DID show me something was #32 Russell Hansbrough. I'd be giving that guy more carries going forward if I'm running the show at Missouri. He's quick, hits the hole well, and managed to find several open spaces against a tough Florida run defense. He had a 26 yard run as his long in the game, and he averaged over 8 yards a carry. Yet, he only had 9 touches in the game for reasons unknown to me.
Overall, the main takeaway I have with Missouri is that the defense looks seasoned, tough, and ready to rumble. The offense looks the exact opposite: young, weak, and easily put off the field. If you're playing Missouri, you want to play them now rather than later, because every game Lock and these receivers put under their belt is going to make them better. I wouldn't be shocked if they get to a bowl game that Missouri finally puts it together and starts scoring some points.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)