OK so last week Georgia got annihilated and I talked myself into that pick because of my bias. I fully admit that. The thing is even though my SEC picks went 1-3, which means we're down 5 units now, the rest of my picks that week went 7-3 in the other conferences. So I know the system works, but I also know now that it devalued teams with hard starting opponents like Ole Miss. With that in mind, I'll be avoiding Ole Miss for at least 3 more weeks while they normalize. Also, the Florida injury still plays a huge part in what they are doing. With that in mind, they are off my board as well.
STRAIGHT UP PICKS:
Florida v. Vandy - FLORIDA
Louisiana-Monre v. Auburn - AUBURN
Tennessee v. Georgia - TENNESSEE
Texas A&M v. South Carolina - TEXAS A&M
Memphis v. Mississippi - MISSISSIPPI
Kentucky v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Missouri v. LSU - MISSOURI
BETTING PICKS (units indicated)
Lousiana-Monroe v. Auburn -33.5 - Take LOUSIANA MONROE +33.5 (1 UNIT). Auburn's offense is moving the ball better, but LM can score 17+ points against anybody. So the question is do you believe that Auburn will hang 51 on them? I'm going to guess probably not with a unit on the line.
Tennessee v. Georgia +4 - Take TENNESSEE -4 (1 UNIT). As much as it pains me, Georgia isn't a good football team right now. Yes, it's a trap line. Yes, Tennessee has yet to play a single road game this season. And that's why we're only going one unit. But right now the trench battle is in TN's favor, and Kirby has never really proven he can defend well against mobile QBs even at Alabama, let alone with inferior talent.
Kentucky v. Alabama - Take ALABAMA -35 (1 UNIT). Alabama is 3-1 ATS this season while Kentucky is 1-3, and that's why Vegas will continue to give you really high lines. The thing is, I've got Alabama as a 40 point better team on a neutral field, which at home puts them around 6 TDs better than a woeful Kentucky team. If Saban won't even call off the dogs against Kent State, he might just run up 60 on Kentucky.
Missouri v. LSU - Take MISSOURI +13 (2 UNITS). LSU just fired their coach. Missouri can throw on almost anybody, and LSU hasn't proven they can do a damn thing on offense. Yet they are a 13 point favorite at home. Maybe it's a trap too, but I don't see how LSU is that much better than Mizzou. Certainly LSU can win, but by 2 scores? The only team they've done that against is Jacksonville State.
Texas A&M v. South Carolina O/U 47.5 - Give me the OVER 47.5 (2 UNITS). I love the over play here because A&M is averaging out on normalized total points around 68 in their games. South Carolina is somewhere in the 48 on points on their totals.
FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK:
We've gotten close on a few of these, but hit none. This might be the week. Give me MISSOURI getting +380 going into death valley. Why not? Maybe the coaching change sparks the LSU team and they rally, but I don't think coaching was an issue in throwing the football, and LSU hasn't done that in several years.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Wednesday, September 21, 2016
SEC College Football Picks Week 4
Welp, last week was a disaster as Alabama couldn't hold on to an 18 point lead and an easy cover with 5 minutes left. Instead, I got beat on my 2 unit play, went 1-4 on the week, and we're down 3 units now going into Week 4. But that's fine, because Vegas made a big payday last week. Nobody I know on the picking circuit did well with the crazy outcomes. You're going to have those weeks, so let's not make it two in a row.
STRAIGHT UP PICKS
Kent State v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Georgia v. Ole Miss - GEORGIA
Mississippi State v. Massachusetts - MS STATE
Florida v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Western Kentucky - WESTERN KENTUCKY
LSU v. Auburn - LSU
South Carolina v. Kentucky - SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M
BETTING PICKS (1 Unit every play this week)
I don't really like a lot of games from an action standpoint this week. You have a bunch of close spreads in these games, and in many cases the games are within one score. Five games on the slate have a 7 point spread or less.
I'm avoiding Florida and Tennessee because of the injury to the Florida QB. I never try to bet into new QBs especially in rivalry games. Forget about a 22 point spread on MS State and UMASS because I'm not sure if MS State will care. Same with Alabama and Kent State.
So let's not go nuts this week. I'm playing only one unit on each play.
Georgia +7 over Ole Miss - Nobody is giving Georgia much of a chance in this game, but Ole Miss hasn't proven they can play without giving the other team the ball and blowing a huge lead. If Georgia can just weather the first half storm, they have to feel they can keep this close and possibly win.
LSU -3.5 over Auburn - LSU is better than Auburn. The spread is lower because LSU has struggled to put a consistent offense on the field, and because they are on the road. Were the game in LSU, they'd be favored by 10.5 easily. With that in mind, I like LSU winning by a TD.
South Carolina +2 over Kentucky - These are bad teams, but South Carolina is less bad than Kentucky. I don't care that Kentucky put up points against cupcakes. The second Kentucky faces a team with an defensive talent, they pull the EL FOLDO.
Texas A&M -6 over Arkansas - I've liked A&M all year. I continue to like them in this game, and they are my dark horse in the SEC West to take down Alabama. I'll ride them here in a neutral site, and hope for the best.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK
GEORGIA +240 - This is only if you're feeling frisky. I like taking the points much better than laying the money line for a Dawgs team on the road that struggled with Missouri, but if you believe that UGA is a sleeper team then this is the play. But again, this week isn't exactly the week to expect a bunch of upsets since the lines are tight.
Alright there's your picks. Let's turn it around this week and make some $$$
STRAIGHT UP PICKS
Kent State v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Georgia v. Ole Miss - GEORGIA
Mississippi State v. Massachusetts - MS STATE
Florida v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Western Kentucky - WESTERN KENTUCKY
LSU v. Auburn - LSU
South Carolina v. Kentucky - SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M
BETTING PICKS (1 Unit every play this week)
I don't really like a lot of games from an action standpoint this week. You have a bunch of close spreads in these games, and in many cases the games are within one score. Five games on the slate have a 7 point spread or less.
I'm avoiding Florida and Tennessee because of the injury to the Florida QB. I never try to bet into new QBs especially in rivalry games. Forget about a 22 point spread on MS State and UMASS because I'm not sure if MS State will care. Same with Alabama and Kent State.
So let's not go nuts this week. I'm playing only one unit on each play.
Georgia +7 over Ole Miss - Nobody is giving Georgia much of a chance in this game, but Ole Miss hasn't proven they can play without giving the other team the ball and blowing a huge lead. If Georgia can just weather the first half storm, they have to feel they can keep this close and possibly win.
LSU -3.5 over Auburn - LSU is better than Auburn. The spread is lower because LSU has struggled to put a consistent offense on the field, and because they are on the road. Were the game in LSU, they'd be favored by 10.5 easily. With that in mind, I like LSU winning by a TD.
South Carolina +2 over Kentucky - These are bad teams, but South Carolina is less bad than Kentucky. I don't care that Kentucky put up points against cupcakes. The second Kentucky faces a team with an defensive talent, they pull the EL FOLDO.
Texas A&M -6 over Arkansas - I've liked A&M all year. I continue to like them in this game, and they are my dark horse in the SEC West to take down Alabama. I'll ride them here in a neutral site, and hope for the best.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK
GEORGIA +240 - This is only if you're feeling frisky. I like taking the points much better than laying the money line for a Dawgs team on the road that struggled with Missouri, but if you believe that UGA is a sleeper team then this is the play. But again, this week isn't exactly the week to expect a bunch of upsets since the lines are tight.
Alright there's your picks. Let's turn it around this week and make some $$$
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
Alabama vs. Ole Miss SEC Game Film Review: Week 3
OK I'm exhausted after watching this film. Ole Miss fans, sorry I'm not going to cover you this week because you lost, and there's too many plays to detail. Don't worry you'll get your turn soon (possibly next week). In this case I'm going to review Alabama's performance in this game. If you expect glowing positive remarks because the Tide won this game 48-43, please think again. This was a complete disaster on several fronts, and the only reason Alabama won this game is because of turnovers and specials teams.
ALABAMA OFFENSE:
Um, let's start with one thing. I have no idea what Lane Kiffin was thinking with his game plan in this matchup. As I'm watching Alabama fling the ball around on speed plays in the first half, WR screens, RB screens, pitch end-arounds, all I can think to myself is one thing. "This is Alabama? The hard-nosed running team who crams it up your rear? Because I didn't know Alabama suddenly became an ineffective spread option team."
The game plan looked completely assinine. You know how many of the 48 points were offensive TDs? Only 3. That's less that half the points. The offense honestly looked like crap for most of the game, because for some reason Kiffin decided he would focus on letting Jalen Hurts throw the ball. Jalen Hurts doesn't throw the ball well down the field. Inside of 10 yards, he's fine. On screens, he's fine. Once you go 15 yards down the field, it looks wobbly and off target. He missed a WIDE OPEN touchdown on the first series of the game because he overthrew the receiver. He continually missed open guys down the field. At one point he hit Calvin Ridley late in the game for a huge play, but even that ball turned Ridley around and was under thrown. Going deep is not Hurts strong point, but Kiffin still had him throwing the ball 31 times. It made no sense.
Also, penalties were a huge problem on the offensive line. Alabama as a team had 9 penalties accepted for 75 yards. Holding and false starts killed several drives, and the blocking for Hurts was average at best. One of the Ole Miss TDs that gave them a big lead in the first half was #60 Malik Martin getting blown by on the right side, and Ole Miss lit up Hurts for a sack fumble scoop and score.
Meanwhile whenever Lane actually handed off to a RB like #34 Damien Harris, he had 16 carries for 144 yards and a TD. Otherwise this was Hurts game to run. In addition to throwing the ball 31 times, he ran it 18 times for 146 yards. And yet, Hurts had ZERO touchdowns in the game. All that production but he never threw one in the end zone, or ran one in the end zone. Make no mistake, Hurts is a great runner and a great athlete. But he's not an answer throwing the ball a ton, and I don't think he's got the arm to be that kind of thrower. Balls coming out of his hands look wobbly and heading the wrong direction. If he can learn some touch, that will certainly help, but as a defense I would want to play contain on him so he doesn't beat me with his legs.
Oh and run the ball Lane. Good grief. You have great running backs and you barely used them in this game. It almost cost you huge, but Chad Kelly being a moron and the special teams returns bailed you out.
ALABAMA DEFENSE:
The defense wasn't good either. Face it. You gave up 43 points to another team in the SEC because your secondary was absolute garbage. I'm not pulling punches here, I don't care how much of a Bama homer you are, that was the worst secondary performance I've seen out of this team in a long time. Every guy back there was getting torched or out of position. Don't believe me? I'll get to why in a second.
Let's start with the line. Alabama is playing a version of the nickel for most of the game, with man-to-man coverage at times and safety help, then switched to a zone. It depended on whether or not they were playing to blitz with the LB or corners. In the first half, Alabama produced zero pressure and as such Chad Kelly did a great job picking them apart. In the second half, they finally realized they could blitz I suppose (I visual the DC checking the rule book at the half and a light bulb coming on over his head) and they started to harass Kelly. Here's one of the turning points of the game:
This is the tying score in the second half. You're early in the second half, and Ole Miss is backed up with Kelly throwing on 2nd and 7. The circled yellow player is #22 Ryan Anderson, a LB who originally dropped back into coverage a step and then came on a blitz. He's got a free look because the RT doesn't see him until it's too late. There's a key feature here I've isolated with the blue lines. The top blue line goes to the wide open receiver that is now available because #22 is coming on the blitz. The bottom blue arrow is where Chad Kelly is actually looking. Once he sees the blitzer coming (and he did because he ran away from him briefly) he has to unload that ball to the open man. Instead, he pulls it down and tries to escape, gets sacked, fumbles the ball, and Alabama scores the tying TD to make it 24-24.
That play is on Kelly. He has to see that guy coming and make the read. There's nobody on the side he's looking at who is a threat, plus he's still got periphery to see the blitzer. It's not coming from his blind side. Now the defense line was excellent once they started to blitz. They recovered not one but TWO scoop and scores for touchdowns. So credit them with 14 points alone.
Now for the secondary. The worst guy on the field all day was #15 Ronnie Harrison. He was awful. He was beat early in the game, bit on a fake late in the middle of the game for a TD, and got beat late in the game as Kelly brought Ole Miss down the field. Let's look at an example:
I call this Alabama getting torched Part 1. This is the setup. The Alabama defensive back circled in yellow is #15 Ronnie Harrison. I've isolated what he is looking at. He's seeing Chad Kelly fake a pitch to the running back and he's thinking he better go chase that ball. There's one problem with that line of thinking, and that is this: It's not his job to go chasing the ball-carrier right then. That's the linebacker's job first along with the defensive linemen, and eventually the corners. If the safety is a guy making a tackle on a runner, it's still not a good thing. No, his job was supposed to be staying deeper than the deepest guy. He doesn't. He bites on the play fake, hanging LB #20 on a WR in the red circle. That's a bad combo.
Here's Alabama getting torched Part 2, the play a second later. Note the Ole Miss WR in yellow blowing by the Alabama defenders in the red box. #15 has realized he's completely out of place and trying to backpedal, but the WR is at full speed and Chad Kelly is staring right at him. Kelly lays out an easy pass and it's a 65 yard house call TD. All because #15 wanted to stop the run, and forgot his job.
The other guy who I will continue to pick on this year is #26 Marlon Humphry. He's not good. He's never been good despite what I hear from Alabama fans defending him. I told you about him last year, I'll say it again. He got out jumped in the first half for a huge play, he got torched in the second half for 20+ and almost a TD, and he got beat twice late in the game for those 2 garbage time TDs that brought Ole Miss within one score. He's the guy I would pick on every single game if I'm an opposing team. You find 26 and you run your best guy at him. It'll pay dividends. But he wasn't alone. This secondary isn't good outside of #29 Minkah Fitzpatrick, and even he got his butt chewed out by Saban for loafing on the play when Humphry got lit up for 40 yards on a jump ball.
Overall, without a lot of help by Kelly Alabama's pass defense didn't impress me. They certainly weren't getting pressure with just the front four, and they had to blitz to get any kind of action. Along with the secondary if they face any teams with dynamic passers, they are in big trouble in the long run. That's their weakest point.
ALABAMA SPECIAL TEAMS:
More good and bad here as well. The good? Alabama had 2 made FGs and had almost 175 yards in returns including a TD. The bad news? They missed a FG as well which I'm sure drives Nick Saban crazy. The return game was the most impressive as the 85 yard house call was a turning point in the game to get Alabama back in it after a 21 point deficit. But overall, you can credit 13 points to the special teams, which when you combine it with the 14 points from the defense gives you the majority of the points in the game.
The takeaway from Alabama in this game should be to run the ball more, throw with Hurts less, get him into read-option plays which utilize his biggest strength (his legs), and leverage the return game as much as possible. No fair catches! On defense, they need to blitz earlier in the game as it seems to get QBs off the spot, and try like hell not to let their positioning in the secondary get them in trouble. Because if that was supposed to be a strength before the season, it certainly didn't look like it in this game.
Luckily Alabama doesn't play another decent team for 3 weeks when they eventually face off against Arkansas on the road, followed by Tennessee and A&M. I don't think they get through that stretch of games without a loss playing like they did against Ole Miss.
ALABAMA OFFENSE:
Um, let's start with one thing. I have no idea what Lane Kiffin was thinking with his game plan in this matchup. As I'm watching Alabama fling the ball around on speed plays in the first half, WR screens, RB screens, pitch end-arounds, all I can think to myself is one thing. "This is Alabama? The hard-nosed running team who crams it up your rear? Because I didn't know Alabama suddenly became an ineffective spread option team."
The game plan looked completely assinine. You know how many of the 48 points were offensive TDs? Only 3. That's less that half the points. The offense honestly looked like crap for most of the game, because for some reason Kiffin decided he would focus on letting Jalen Hurts throw the ball. Jalen Hurts doesn't throw the ball well down the field. Inside of 10 yards, he's fine. On screens, he's fine. Once you go 15 yards down the field, it looks wobbly and off target. He missed a WIDE OPEN touchdown on the first series of the game because he overthrew the receiver. He continually missed open guys down the field. At one point he hit Calvin Ridley late in the game for a huge play, but even that ball turned Ridley around and was under thrown. Going deep is not Hurts strong point, but Kiffin still had him throwing the ball 31 times. It made no sense.
Also, penalties were a huge problem on the offensive line. Alabama as a team had 9 penalties accepted for 75 yards. Holding and false starts killed several drives, and the blocking for Hurts was average at best. One of the Ole Miss TDs that gave them a big lead in the first half was #60 Malik Martin getting blown by on the right side, and Ole Miss lit up Hurts for a sack fumble scoop and score.
Meanwhile whenever Lane actually handed off to a RB like #34 Damien Harris, he had 16 carries for 144 yards and a TD. Otherwise this was Hurts game to run. In addition to throwing the ball 31 times, he ran it 18 times for 146 yards. And yet, Hurts had ZERO touchdowns in the game. All that production but he never threw one in the end zone, or ran one in the end zone. Make no mistake, Hurts is a great runner and a great athlete. But he's not an answer throwing the ball a ton, and I don't think he's got the arm to be that kind of thrower. Balls coming out of his hands look wobbly and heading the wrong direction. If he can learn some touch, that will certainly help, but as a defense I would want to play contain on him so he doesn't beat me with his legs.
Oh and run the ball Lane. Good grief. You have great running backs and you barely used them in this game. It almost cost you huge, but Chad Kelly being a moron and the special teams returns bailed you out.
ALABAMA DEFENSE:
The defense wasn't good either. Face it. You gave up 43 points to another team in the SEC because your secondary was absolute garbage. I'm not pulling punches here, I don't care how much of a Bama homer you are, that was the worst secondary performance I've seen out of this team in a long time. Every guy back there was getting torched or out of position. Don't believe me? I'll get to why in a second.
Let's start with the line. Alabama is playing a version of the nickel for most of the game, with man-to-man coverage at times and safety help, then switched to a zone. It depended on whether or not they were playing to blitz with the LB or corners. In the first half, Alabama produced zero pressure and as such Chad Kelly did a great job picking them apart. In the second half, they finally realized they could blitz I suppose (I visual the DC checking the rule book at the half and a light bulb coming on over his head) and they started to harass Kelly. Here's one of the turning points of the game:
This is the tying score in the second half. You're early in the second half, and Ole Miss is backed up with Kelly throwing on 2nd and 7. The circled yellow player is #22 Ryan Anderson, a LB who originally dropped back into coverage a step and then came on a blitz. He's got a free look because the RT doesn't see him until it's too late. There's a key feature here I've isolated with the blue lines. The top blue line goes to the wide open receiver that is now available because #22 is coming on the blitz. The bottom blue arrow is where Chad Kelly is actually looking. Once he sees the blitzer coming (and he did because he ran away from him briefly) he has to unload that ball to the open man. Instead, he pulls it down and tries to escape, gets sacked, fumbles the ball, and Alabama scores the tying TD to make it 24-24.
That play is on Kelly. He has to see that guy coming and make the read. There's nobody on the side he's looking at who is a threat, plus he's still got periphery to see the blitzer. It's not coming from his blind side. Now the defense line was excellent once they started to blitz. They recovered not one but TWO scoop and scores for touchdowns. So credit them with 14 points alone.
Now for the secondary. The worst guy on the field all day was #15 Ronnie Harrison. He was awful. He was beat early in the game, bit on a fake late in the middle of the game for a TD, and got beat late in the game as Kelly brought Ole Miss down the field. Let's look at an example:
I call this Alabama getting torched Part 1. This is the setup. The Alabama defensive back circled in yellow is #15 Ronnie Harrison. I've isolated what he is looking at. He's seeing Chad Kelly fake a pitch to the running back and he's thinking he better go chase that ball. There's one problem with that line of thinking, and that is this: It's not his job to go chasing the ball-carrier right then. That's the linebacker's job first along with the defensive linemen, and eventually the corners. If the safety is a guy making a tackle on a runner, it's still not a good thing. No, his job was supposed to be staying deeper than the deepest guy. He doesn't. He bites on the play fake, hanging LB #20 on a WR in the red circle. That's a bad combo.
Here's Alabama getting torched Part 2, the play a second later. Note the Ole Miss WR in yellow blowing by the Alabama defenders in the red box. #15 has realized he's completely out of place and trying to backpedal, but the WR is at full speed and Chad Kelly is staring right at him. Kelly lays out an easy pass and it's a 65 yard house call TD. All because #15 wanted to stop the run, and forgot his job.
The other guy who I will continue to pick on this year is #26 Marlon Humphry. He's not good. He's never been good despite what I hear from Alabama fans defending him. I told you about him last year, I'll say it again. He got out jumped in the first half for a huge play, he got torched in the second half for 20+ and almost a TD, and he got beat twice late in the game for those 2 garbage time TDs that brought Ole Miss within one score. He's the guy I would pick on every single game if I'm an opposing team. You find 26 and you run your best guy at him. It'll pay dividends. But he wasn't alone. This secondary isn't good outside of #29 Minkah Fitzpatrick, and even he got his butt chewed out by Saban for loafing on the play when Humphry got lit up for 40 yards on a jump ball.
Overall, without a lot of help by Kelly Alabama's pass defense didn't impress me. They certainly weren't getting pressure with just the front four, and they had to blitz to get any kind of action. Along with the secondary if they face any teams with dynamic passers, they are in big trouble in the long run. That's their weakest point.
ALABAMA SPECIAL TEAMS:
More good and bad here as well. The good? Alabama had 2 made FGs and had almost 175 yards in returns including a TD. The bad news? They missed a FG as well which I'm sure drives Nick Saban crazy. The return game was the most impressive as the 85 yard house call was a turning point in the game to get Alabama back in it after a 21 point deficit. But overall, you can credit 13 points to the special teams, which when you combine it with the 14 points from the defense gives you the majority of the points in the game.
The takeaway from Alabama in this game should be to run the ball more, throw with Hurts less, get him into read-option plays which utilize his biggest strength (his legs), and leverage the return game as much as possible. No fair catches! On defense, they need to blitz earlier in the game as it seems to get QBs off the spot, and try like hell not to let their positioning in the secondary get them in trouble. Because if that was supposed to be a strength before the season, it certainly didn't look like it in this game.
Luckily Alabama doesn't play another decent team for 3 weeks when they eventually face off against Arkansas on the road, followed by Tennessee and A&M. I don't think they get through that stretch of games without a loss playing like they did against Ole Miss.
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
SEC College Football Picks Week 3
Well we had a much better Week in Week 2 didn't we? The picks went 4-1, so we're up to 1 unit to the good. We weathered the storm of little information and came out ahead. Now we have some actual data to work with, and I think we can get even better. Let's check out the games
Straight up Picks:
Ohio v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Georgia Tech - GEORGIA TECH
Alabama v. Mississippi - ALABAMA
East Carolina v. South Carolina - EAST CAROLINA
New Mexico State v. Kentucky - NEW MEXICO STATE
Texas A&M v. Auburn - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Mississippi State - LSU
Georgia v. Missouri - GEORGIA
North Texas v. Florida - FLORIDA
Texas State v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
New Mexico State will be the big upset of the week as I think Kentucky is completely hopeless. I think their staff has lost direction and they may not win another game. Also, East Carolina is a good team and they will take care of a bad South Carolina squad.
BETTING PICKS (UNITS INDICATED NEXT TO PICK)
ALABAMA -11 over Ole Miss 2 Units - Alabama is better than FSU right now across the board, and Chad Kelly got lucky last year thanks to Alabama being careless with the ball. I don't think they are careless this time.
VANDERBILT +6.5 over GA Tech 1 Unit - This one is about the points. I expect Tech to grind this one out at home, and I think they win by a late FG.
OHIO +28 over Tennessee 1 Unit - The Vols are coming off two wins where they started slow. They have Florida next week. They aren't looking at this game as a threat at all, and as such I don't think they care about putting up 5 scores on Ohio.
East Carolina +3 over South Carolina 1 Unit - Honestly East Carolina is the better team and you're getting points. Take them and run with it.
TEXAS STATE +31 over Arkansas 1 Unit - Arkansas is coming off TCU, looking at A&M next week, and in the middle you have this game against a Texas State team that LOVES to fling the ball. And Arkansas just happened to be 109th in pass defense right now. It's a closer game than Arkansas would like, who have only played close games.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK OF THE WEEK:
NEW MEXICO STATE +750 against Kentucky - Will Kentucky lose? Maybe. I don't see any reason on any of my metric to believe they are a huge favorite in this game, but Vegas has them as a 19.5 point favorite. NM State is coming off a big win over New Mexico, and they can put up points. I would think this one ends 24-23 or something like that.
Straight up Picks:
Ohio v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Georgia Tech - GEORGIA TECH
Alabama v. Mississippi - ALABAMA
East Carolina v. South Carolina - EAST CAROLINA
New Mexico State v. Kentucky - NEW MEXICO STATE
Texas A&M v. Auburn - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Mississippi State - LSU
Georgia v. Missouri - GEORGIA
North Texas v. Florida - FLORIDA
Texas State v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
New Mexico State will be the big upset of the week as I think Kentucky is completely hopeless. I think their staff has lost direction and they may not win another game. Also, East Carolina is a good team and they will take care of a bad South Carolina squad.
BETTING PICKS (UNITS INDICATED NEXT TO PICK)
ALABAMA -11 over Ole Miss 2 Units - Alabama is better than FSU right now across the board, and Chad Kelly got lucky last year thanks to Alabama being careless with the ball. I don't think they are careless this time.
VANDERBILT +6.5 over GA Tech 1 Unit - This one is about the points. I expect Tech to grind this one out at home, and I think they win by a late FG.
OHIO +28 over Tennessee 1 Unit - The Vols are coming off two wins where they started slow. They have Florida next week. They aren't looking at this game as a threat at all, and as such I don't think they care about putting up 5 scores on Ohio.
East Carolina +3 over South Carolina 1 Unit - Honestly East Carolina is the better team and you're getting points. Take them and run with it.
TEXAS STATE +31 over Arkansas 1 Unit - Arkansas is coming off TCU, looking at A&M next week, and in the middle you have this game against a Texas State team that LOVES to fling the ball. And Arkansas just happened to be 109th in pass defense right now. It's a closer game than Arkansas would like, who have only played close games.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK OF THE WEEK:
NEW MEXICO STATE +750 against Kentucky - Will Kentucky lose? Maybe. I don't see any reason on any of my metric to believe they are a huge favorite in this game, but Vegas has them as a 19.5 point favorite. NM State is coming off a big win over New Mexico, and they can put up points. I would think this one ends 24-23 or something like that.
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Kentucky v Florida Film Review: Week 2
The game that won the vote this week was the blowout match between the Gators and the Wildcats on CBS. Of course, this vote was made long before we knew it was a complete whitewash, but nonetheless I vowed to give you a full review of this game and especially the victor. With that in mind, Florida won 45-7 so this review will be mostly about Florida and their scheme. Because I'll cover what Kentucky did wrong at the end.
FLORIDA OFFENSE:
Let's start with what the Gators are trying to do on offense as their game plan. By watching this game you may have oooohed and aaaahed the large passing numbers. And that's fine because it's a viable part of this Florida offense. However, the primary thing Florida wants to do in this system is run the football. Against Kentucky, Florida ran the ball 50 times for an average of 4.9 a carry. That's huge. They also threw 33 times for 320 yards, and that's big as well. However, on a play split it was 61% run and 39% pass by play call.
Florida ran at least a dozen formation sets on offense while I was watching the film, and they switched them at will. In the first series they opened a bunched 2 TE - 2 WR set for a power running look, but they also ran a pull play across the field for one of their TE's, #30 Goolsby, later in the game out of that same bunch formation as a passing play. They can switch to 3 or 4 receiver spreads. They can go with power running overloaded sets to either side. They can switch back to a standard play-action pro-set. It's designed for one thing and one thing only. Confusion.
The goal of this Florida offense is to confuse the defenses so that it can run or pass out of any particular formation. They aren't going to be obvious, and they are doing it because they now have a true play-action pocket-passer QB in Luke Del Rio. I noticed several things about Del Rio that I'll cover in the picture examples, but the main thing he has is pocket presence. You can't teach that in the college level. It's that feeling of how to step up and back in the pocket when you sense pressure, and the best QBs at the NFL level have it. Most college kids don't. Luke has it, which is terrifying if you're not a Florida Gator fan, because they finally found a good QB that can complement their already great defense.
So how did Florida take over this game? It happened on three plays. I'll detail them here, and you can click on the pictures to expand:
Florida made an interception (one of 3 in this game, but I'll get to that later on defense) and while they were up 7-0 already on a long grinding score, this was the first play from scrimmage after the pick. The picture shows you down the field coverage. The circle on the top is #81 Antonio Callaway who is two steps ahead of his defender, absolutely scorching him on a fly route. The lower circle is the safety who in that exact moment has figured out he made a huge mistake. You can't see Del Rio the QB in this picture, but he's looked off the safety to the bottom receiver who is obviously covered. By the time Del Rio looks at the top to Callaway, you see the safety is starting to backpedal because he's totally out of position. What happens after this is Del Rio drops a 45 yard dime to Callaway who runs the rest of the way for a 78 yard TD. Boom.
This is at the end of the half. You can see the clock scenario. Kentucky needs to stop Florida to keep them from going up 4 scores. Florida is throwing on first down and goal. Now there's a lot going on here so I drew arrows. This will show you how the misdirection of Florida's offense completely confused Kentucky. Note the receiver in the middle who is running across the 2 yard line. His job is entirely to confuse the defense and draw those two men in coverage to him. You now have two guys on #18, leaving #4 Brandon Powell at the bottom running behind him to the end zone. One defender at the bottom of your screen has no hope of catching #4 as he goes to the line, the other defender in the end zone is backing up because he's worried about a guy coming in behind him. What happens is Del Rio has great protection by the O-Line on a 3-man rush (bad idea Kentucky) and he delivers a strike to Powell right at the line for a TD.
Here's the back breaker play of the game. This is the exact moment I can determine when Kentucky gave up and stopped trying. And there was still an entire half of football left. The circle at the top is the ball, it's early in the second half, and you can see there is a receiver just waiting to catch this pass basically by himself. This is a completely busted coverage as there's not one but TWO Florida receivers who could have made this play, and the nearest defenders are almost 10 yards away on each side. Obviously, #16 Freddie Swain makes the easy catch, and there's absolutely nothing between him and the end zone. Game over. Except they still scored 14 more points and Kentucky got a garbage time TD. But this picture shows what happened in a nutshell. Florida confused Kentucky so badly on offense they had no shot.
FLORIDA DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS:
I'll start by saying that Florida's defense looked so good in this game because Kentucky made so many mistakes. That's not to say that Florida's defense isn't good, but they aren't +4 turnovers and holding a team to under 150 yards good. They needed some help for that. Still, they had a great day and a few players jumped out at me.
The first guy was #34 Alex Anzalone, who looks like some version of Thor and Clay Matthews running around with flowing blonde hair out of his helmet as he makes tackles. By my count he had a sack, several tackles for loss, and made every single play on Kentucky's first 3-and-out of the game. He was flying around to the ball and looks extremely talented as a LB with a high motor.
Second guy was #17 Jordan Sherit, a defensive lineman who abused tackles all day in pass protection. He had two sacks that I saw, was blowing around guys on the line, and was causing havoc in the backfield on a couple of the interceptions. Kentucky didn't know what to do with him at all, and it cost them huge.
The other guys were #6 Quincy Wilson, #31 Teez Tabor, and #20 Marcus Maye. They all had interceptions on the day, and were all part of making Kentucky QB Drew Barker's life a living nightmare. They, along with the pass rush and remaining secondary managed to hold the starting QB to 10 yards passing. TEN. That's insane. And they were doing it mainly by playing press coverage along the front line because they completely disrespected Barker's ability to throw the ball. Everybody was in a five yard box at one point. It was a bloodbath. The best interception was a tie between Wilson who made his 1-handed at the boundary, and Tabor who completely jumped the pass as Barker tried to throw a WR screen.
All in all, the Florida defense hasn't faced an offensive opponent of consequence yet, and they won't until they play Tennessee two weeks from now on the road. Maybe at that point I can give them a proper evaluation. As for their kicking game? It's schizophrenic. Their kicker Eddy Pineiro made a 53 yarder that I gave him no chance on, while also missing two FGs from 43 yards and 30+ yards. He needs to work on his short game, like many golfers I know. He's got the Bubba Watson drive, but absolutely no control.
KENTUCKY IN GENERAL:
Good lord. You're a bad football team, and I don't see any hope for you this year. That's the brutally honest truth. It's worse than I possibly imagined. Your starting QB Barker was so bad he was throwing balls into the dirt when he had wide open targets for TDs. The running game until garbage time was completely absent. You replaced your QB for a backup that had 45 yards and got sacked several times, AND HE WAS THE BETTER GUY. Your best running back Boom Williams only got 12 carries because you were so far behind you couldn't run the ball. You have zero talent at the receiver positions when faced with adversity.
Plus, your team gave up and I saw it on the field. You know you saw it too. There was a point in that game where they stopped listening and just wanted to leave. Florida, for what it's worth actually pitied you enough in the 4th quarter to take their foot off the gas and put in their backup QB. That should make you realize especially after the loss to a cupcake in week one that your coaching staff has completely lost control of this team.
The defense has no idea where it's supposed to be. If you don't believe me, look at those three pictures that I posted above and point out to me who is in the right coverage position. Because nobody is in the right position for the types of plays Florida was running, and they got burned over and over again. The best thing I can say about Kentucky is that they only committed two penalties, so at least they didn't look undisciplined there.
I don't advocate for firing somebody else's coach, but dear lord Kentucky you can do better than this. I've seen it before. You need to get rid of Stoops ASAP and get an actual head coach in your school. Because right now I think you're on pace for the worst season since 1994 under Bill Curry. And you won only 1 game that year.
Better figure something out quick.
FLORIDA OFFENSE:
Let's start with what the Gators are trying to do on offense as their game plan. By watching this game you may have oooohed and aaaahed the large passing numbers. And that's fine because it's a viable part of this Florida offense. However, the primary thing Florida wants to do in this system is run the football. Against Kentucky, Florida ran the ball 50 times for an average of 4.9 a carry. That's huge. They also threw 33 times for 320 yards, and that's big as well. However, on a play split it was 61% run and 39% pass by play call.
Florida ran at least a dozen formation sets on offense while I was watching the film, and they switched them at will. In the first series they opened a bunched 2 TE - 2 WR set for a power running look, but they also ran a pull play across the field for one of their TE's, #30 Goolsby, later in the game out of that same bunch formation as a passing play. They can switch to 3 or 4 receiver spreads. They can go with power running overloaded sets to either side. They can switch back to a standard play-action pro-set. It's designed for one thing and one thing only. Confusion.
The goal of this Florida offense is to confuse the defenses so that it can run or pass out of any particular formation. They aren't going to be obvious, and they are doing it because they now have a true play-action pocket-passer QB in Luke Del Rio. I noticed several things about Del Rio that I'll cover in the picture examples, but the main thing he has is pocket presence. You can't teach that in the college level. It's that feeling of how to step up and back in the pocket when you sense pressure, and the best QBs at the NFL level have it. Most college kids don't. Luke has it, which is terrifying if you're not a Florida Gator fan, because they finally found a good QB that can complement their already great defense.
So how did Florida take over this game? It happened on three plays. I'll detail them here, and you can click on the pictures to expand:
Florida made an interception (one of 3 in this game, but I'll get to that later on defense) and while they were up 7-0 already on a long grinding score, this was the first play from scrimmage after the pick. The picture shows you down the field coverage. The circle on the top is #81 Antonio Callaway who is two steps ahead of his defender, absolutely scorching him on a fly route. The lower circle is the safety who in that exact moment has figured out he made a huge mistake. You can't see Del Rio the QB in this picture, but he's looked off the safety to the bottom receiver who is obviously covered. By the time Del Rio looks at the top to Callaway, you see the safety is starting to backpedal because he's totally out of position. What happens after this is Del Rio drops a 45 yard dime to Callaway who runs the rest of the way for a 78 yard TD. Boom.
This is at the end of the half. You can see the clock scenario. Kentucky needs to stop Florida to keep them from going up 4 scores. Florida is throwing on first down and goal. Now there's a lot going on here so I drew arrows. This will show you how the misdirection of Florida's offense completely confused Kentucky. Note the receiver in the middle who is running across the 2 yard line. His job is entirely to confuse the defense and draw those two men in coverage to him. You now have two guys on #18, leaving #4 Brandon Powell at the bottom running behind him to the end zone. One defender at the bottom of your screen has no hope of catching #4 as he goes to the line, the other defender in the end zone is backing up because he's worried about a guy coming in behind him. What happens is Del Rio has great protection by the O-Line on a 3-man rush (bad idea Kentucky) and he delivers a strike to Powell right at the line for a TD.
Here's the back breaker play of the game. This is the exact moment I can determine when Kentucky gave up and stopped trying. And there was still an entire half of football left. The circle at the top is the ball, it's early in the second half, and you can see there is a receiver just waiting to catch this pass basically by himself. This is a completely busted coverage as there's not one but TWO Florida receivers who could have made this play, and the nearest defenders are almost 10 yards away on each side. Obviously, #16 Freddie Swain makes the easy catch, and there's absolutely nothing between him and the end zone. Game over. Except they still scored 14 more points and Kentucky got a garbage time TD. But this picture shows what happened in a nutshell. Florida confused Kentucky so badly on offense they had no shot.
FLORIDA DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS:
I'll start by saying that Florida's defense looked so good in this game because Kentucky made so many mistakes. That's not to say that Florida's defense isn't good, but they aren't +4 turnovers and holding a team to under 150 yards good. They needed some help for that. Still, they had a great day and a few players jumped out at me.
The first guy was #34 Alex Anzalone, who looks like some version of Thor and Clay Matthews running around with flowing blonde hair out of his helmet as he makes tackles. By my count he had a sack, several tackles for loss, and made every single play on Kentucky's first 3-and-out of the game. He was flying around to the ball and looks extremely talented as a LB with a high motor.
Second guy was #17 Jordan Sherit, a defensive lineman who abused tackles all day in pass protection. He had two sacks that I saw, was blowing around guys on the line, and was causing havoc in the backfield on a couple of the interceptions. Kentucky didn't know what to do with him at all, and it cost them huge.
The other guys were #6 Quincy Wilson, #31 Teez Tabor, and #20 Marcus Maye. They all had interceptions on the day, and were all part of making Kentucky QB Drew Barker's life a living nightmare. They, along with the pass rush and remaining secondary managed to hold the starting QB to 10 yards passing. TEN. That's insane. And they were doing it mainly by playing press coverage along the front line because they completely disrespected Barker's ability to throw the ball. Everybody was in a five yard box at one point. It was a bloodbath. The best interception was a tie between Wilson who made his 1-handed at the boundary, and Tabor who completely jumped the pass as Barker tried to throw a WR screen.
All in all, the Florida defense hasn't faced an offensive opponent of consequence yet, and they won't until they play Tennessee two weeks from now on the road. Maybe at that point I can give them a proper evaluation. As for their kicking game? It's schizophrenic. Their kicker Eddy Pineiro made a 53 yarder that I gave him no chance on, while also missing two FGs from 43 yards and 30+ yards. He needs to work on his short game, like many golfers I know. He's got the Bubba Watson drive, but absolutely no control.
KENTUCKY IN GENERAL:
Good lord. You're a bad football team, and I don't see any hope for you this year. That's the brutally honest truth. It's worse than I possibly imagined. Your starting QB Barker was so bad he was throwing balls into the dirt when he had wide open targets for TDs. The running game until garbage time was completely absent. You replaced your QB for a backup that had 45 yards and got sacked several times, AND HE WAS THE BETTER GUY. Your best running back Boom Williams only got 12 carries because you were so far behind you couldn't run the ball. You have zero talent at the receiver positions when faced with adversity.
Plus, your team gave up and I saw it on the field. You know you saw it too. There was a point in that game where they stopped listening and just wanted to leave. Florida, for what it's worth actually pitied you enough in the 4th quarter to take their foot off the gas and put in their backup QB. That should make you realize especially after the loss to a cupcake in week one that your coaching staff has completely lost control of this team.
The defense has no idea where it's supposed to be. If you don't believe me, look at those three pictures that I posted above and point out to me who is in the right coverage position. Because nobody is in the right position for the types of plays Florida was running, and they got burned over and over again. The best thing I can say about Kentucky is that they only committed two penalties, so at least they didn't look undisciplined there.
I don't advocate for firing somebody else's coach, but dear lord Kentucky you can do better than this. I've seen it before. You need to get rid of Stoops ASAP and get an actual head coach in your school. Because right now I think you're on pace for the worst season since 1994 under Bill Curry. And you won only 1 game that year.
Better figure something out quick.
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Week Two Picks SEC College Football
Geez what a weird week one. Tons of teams lost to complete crap, and my picks suffered accordingly. For those of you who bet on week one big, I told you not to do that because we don't really know much. Right now we know a little but still not enough. Until after Week 3, I don't believe you have enough data to start really betting up teams, unless you see a big stat advantage historically.
Picks last week went 1-3, which means we're down 2 units. I lost LSU, Florida, and Ole Miss. I shouldn't have lost that Ole Miss game but they choked it away in the second half. Live and learn. I won the pick on Alabama easily. Let's see what we've got this week. Again, I'm only going with 1 unit plays until after Week 3 most likely.
Here are my straight up picks for the teams not playing FCS cupcakes:
Western Kentucky v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Kentucky v. Florida - FLORIDA
Middle Tennessee v. Vanderbilt - MIDDLE TENNESSEE
South Carolina v. Mississippi State - SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas v. TCU - TCU
Arkansas State v. Auburn - AUBURN
Eastern Michigan v. Missouri - MISSOURI
Virginia Tech v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
BETTING PICKS: (ALL ONE UNIT)
I call Week 2 overreaction Saturday because the lines increase a ton, and people love to treat blowout teams or bad performances like gospel. That means I end up taking a lot of underdogs.
Western Kentucky +29.5 over Alabama: Yes, Bama rolled big, and the line adjusted for it. Usually Vegas inflates things after a blowout to get the number back in line. In reality if this was Week 1 the spread is probably 21, and then you might have a question. But more than 4 TDs in a game Nick Saban is likely to pull everyone? I'll take the points.
ARKANSAS +7.5 over TCU: Make no mistake, Arkansas looked bad. But they looked bad because they turned the ball over a ton, and didn't take LA Tech seriously. They absolutely will take TCU seriously, who also looked bad defensively against a SD State team they got into a shootout with. Arkansas's defense won't allow that same amount of production, and their ground and pound game can burn clock while making TCU sit there. I think it stays within a TD.
Arkansas State +19.5 over Auburn: Auburn hasn't proven they can move the ball without changed QBs 14 times and screwing it up. Also Arkansas State is no slouch. Auburn almost lost to Jacksonville State last year, and Arkansas State is easily on par with Vanderbilt right now if not better. I think they can hang with Auburn.
MISSOURI -25 over Eastern Michigan: EMich sucks. Even though Missouri isn't good, there's no reason to believe they can't torch a bad Eastern Michigan team who was one of the worst power ranked teams in football last season.
TENNESSEE -12 over VA Tech: I wanted to load up on this game so badly, but the line didn't go anywhere near what I expected. I was thinking about 7 after Tennessee struggled, but the sharpies are moving the line hard on this one all the way up to 12. I'll lay the 12 but I don't love it like I would something under 10.
Flyer Money Line Pick of the Week:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE +170: If you're looking to make an underdog pick this week, go with Middle Tennessee over Vanderbilt. You'll get close to 2-1 against a Vandy team that I think has next to zero offense, while Middle Tennessee proved this and last year they can hang 30+ up there with no problems.
Picks last week went 1-3, which means we're down 2 units. I lost LSU, Florida, and Ole Miss. I shouldn't have lost that Ole Miss game but they choked it away in the second half. Live and learn. I won the pick on Alabama easily. Let's see what we've got this week. Again, I'm only going with 1 unit plays until after Week 3 most likely.
Here are my straight up picks for the teams not playing FCS cupcakes:
Western Kentucky v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Kentucky v. Florida - FLORIDA
Middle Tennessee v. Vanderbilt - MIDDLE TENNESSEE
South Carolina v. Mississippi State - SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas v. TCU - TCU
Arkansas State v. Auburn - AUBURN
Eastern Michigan v. Missouri - MISSOURI
Virginia Tech v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
BETTING PICKS: (ALL ONE UNIT)
I call Week 2 overreaction Saturday because the lines increase a ton, and people love to treat blowout teams or bad performances like gospel. That means I end up taking a lot of underdogs.
Western Kentucky +29.5 over Alabama: Yes, Bama rolled big, and the line adjusted for it. Usually Vegas inflates things after a blowout to get the number back in line. In reality if this was Week 1 the spread is probably 21, and then you might have a question. But more than 4 TDs in a game Nick Saban is likely to pull everyone? I'll take the points.
ARKANSAS +7.5 over TCU: Make no mistake, Arkansas looked bad. But they looked bad because they turned the ball over a ton, and didn't take LA Tech seriously. They absolutely will take TCU seriously, who also looked bad defensively against a SD State team they got into a shootout with. Arkansas's defense won't allow that same amount of production, and their ground and pound game can burn clock while making TCU sit there. I think it stays within a TD.
Arkansas State +19.5 over Auburn: Auburn hasn't proven they can move the ball without changed QBs 14 times and screwing it up. Also Arkansas State is no slouch. Auburn almost lost to Jacksonville State last year, and Arkansas State is easily on par with Vanderbilt right now if not better. I think they can hang with Auburn.
MISSOURI -25 over Eastern Michigan: EMich sucks. Even though Missouri isn't good, there's no reason to believe they can't torch a bad Eastern Michigan team who was one of the worst power ranked teams in football last season.
TENNESSEE -12 over VA Tech: I wanted to load up on this game so badly, but the line didn't go anywhere near what I expected. I was thinking about 7 after Tennessee struggled, but the sharpies are moving the line hard on this one all the way up to 12. I'll lay the 12 but I don't love it like I would something under 10.
Flyer Money Line Pick of the Week:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE +170: If you're looking to make an underdog pick this week, go with Middle Tennessee over Vanderbilt. You'll get close to 2-1 against a Vandy team that I think has next to zero offense, while Middle Tennessee proved this and last year they can hang 30+ up there with no problems.
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
Georgia v North Carolina Film Review: SEC Week 1
Georgia pulled off an impressive win over UNC this Saturday, mostly due to the running game theatrics of Mr. Nick Chubb. I believe many Georgia fans walked away from that game feeling pretty good about their offense, great about Jacob Eason, and feeling great about their chances to win the SEC East. It was all wine and roses right?
Wrong.
The win was a good win, and UNC is a good team. Make no mistake about that. However, when you review how Georgia got there, we should give serious pause to the Georgia defense and special teams. Let's break it down for the Dawgs by each unit, starting with the offense.
OFFENSE:
Starting with a few things I noticed in the X's and O's department: The Dawgs were running a ton of power running formations in the game, which means they had 2 TE sets regularly. In fact, one of their favorite running plays was a power I formation with extra protection lined up on the strong side along with a fullback, and then the fullback would motion back behind the QB to provide a lead blocker for the RB. They did this over and over again. Here's what it looked like:
Here you can see the FB pulling back from the strong side to get into position. You can also see how UNC bunched up to protect it with 9 guys in the box. What was shocking is that they almost never ran to the strong side where the extra protection was. Nick Chubb would almost always follow his lead blocker #47 FB Christian Payne to the weak side (in this picture the far side of your screen) with moderate success. I sort of wonder why they never tested the strong side much but that's me.
I'll start with Christian Payne the FB who had a phenomenal game. He was out in front of Chubb or Herrien laying the lumber on tacklers over and over again. On Chubb's first big 20 yard run, it was Payne leading the way. When Herrien took the edge for the first TD, it was Payne setting that edge. When Chubb busted the game-sealing TD late, it was Payne running 7 yards down the field to lay the final block that sprung the play. Christian Payne is really really good, and it shines on film. He's a very big reason why our RBs had the success they did. And his efforts will never show up on the stat sheet.
Obviously, I loved what Chubb did with his big gains. At one point Chubb actually spun over a guy on his way to a 10 yard gain. Not spun past. He ran into the guy as he was spinning, knocked him on his ass, and kept going. The dude looks healthy for sure, and I'm hoping he stays that way all season because he's a unique talent. Anybody that can average near 7 yards a carry in a game is a hero, and Chubb is our hero.
Now when it came to QBs, Kirby Smart kept his word and started Lambert. Most fans hated it and probably thought Lambert did a bad job, while loving what Eason did. I think that's hasty. Lambert's numbers aren't impressive. However, the first TD happened because Lambert converted a huge 3rd down to McKenzie. Lambert was mostly asked to hand off and make small passes. Still, with the game on the line, the ball was in Eason's hands. The play all the Dawg fans will remember is the 3rd and 5 late in the game, where Eason looks off the safety and hits McKenzie deep for a 51 yard gain. That would lead to the go-ahead FG that won the game.
Eason had one big play, but it was the game-deciding play. It was also sort of crazy because most coaches would probably put in their veteran down 2 points in the 4th quarter. Kirby Smart went with the kid and it paid off. Early in the first half, UNC was selling out to stop the run by stacking at least 8 in the box. It didn't matter who was QB, they did it regardless. However, in the 2nd half after Eason showed he could go deep with 2 pass interference calls, UNC started to back off, and that's what got Georgia back in the game. I don't think UNC backs off there unless you prove you can go over the top, and I don't think the Lambert has the capability.
Isiah McKenzie was a freak in this game. He was returning kicks, catching, passes, and scoring TDs. Lost in all the Nick Chubb 222 yards and 2 TDs workload is the work of McKenzie who went for 122 yards receiving with a TD, plus a 24 yard return. Add in the other RB Brian Herrien going for 59 yards and TD, and you had probably some of the best power 1-2 punch combined with a deep threat I've seen in a long time at Georgia.
The one downside I found is Georgia's left tackle #72 Tyler Catalina, who had a disaster of a day. He was responsible for 2 sacks that I saw, 3 penalties alone, and several times where I just watched him look lazy on plays. I didn't like much that I saw out of the kid, and that's not a good thing at one of the most important positions on the line when it comes to the passing game. He will get Eason killed if he continues to start like that. If you want to know what I'm talking about, just watch the first series in the second half as things start to come off the rails for Catalina. I'd be looking for better options if I'm Kirby Smart.
DEFENSE:
Now for the real bad news. The defense has major issues at almost every level. Let's start with the fact the defense produced almost zero pressure all day. UGA was obviously running in a very vanilla 4-rusher set the entire game, and rarely blitzed. They didn't get much with the vanilla set at all. For the first half this didn't matter because the secondary did a great job of knocking down big plays. #2 Maurice Smith made two fantastic plays to knock down sure first TD deep balls that would have turned the game around. Also #14 Malkom Parrish was very solid in coverage all day long, and had some great pursuit on the edges to make tackles, and a breakup of a pass in the end zone that would have been a TD.
Then there's #24 Dominick Sanders who is supposed to be our "best player" on the defense. If he is, I didn't see it. The junior safety looked out of position several times, including a horrible play on special teams on the opening kick of the second half. Sanders took a bad angle, then tried to dodge a block he felt coming, then sort of lollygagged his way as the returner took off past him. He looked like he was more concerned with getting hit than actually making a play. I can't have that. He took a bad angle on a 30 yard gain run that should have been a loss. He got burned on a deep ball along with #12 Juwuan Briscoe, who also had a bad day. Briscoe was the guy who quit on a scramble play by UNC late in the first half, setting up UNC for an easy FG.
How about the line and linebackers? They looked okay in run protection at times, but they were totally lost in pass coverage and rush. There was a series where TJ Logan (who actually had a better day than vaunted RB Elijah Hood) got loose several times while all our guys looked confused. #78 DT Trenton Thompson got burned inside on a 30 yard scamper by Logan that should have been a loss in the backfield. #51 LB David Marshall completely bought a QB fake at the goal line that allowed the UNC QB to waltz uncontested into the end zone. Kirby immediately grabbed Marshall as he was exiting the field to remind him what his job was, in not so kind terms I'm sure. #17 LB Davin Bellamy was almost non-existent and the time I noticed him it was as he got buried on a block by a lineman. All in all, I'm seriously concerned about the UGA ability to pressure anybody that can pass.
Some defensive players that did have good days? They were mostly linebackers. #3 LB Roquan Smith was all over the place, but he looked young and out of position at times too. I like his energy but he needs to get smarter out there. #6 LB Natrez Patrick tried to blitz a few times and didn't get there, so he needs to get better on his lane moves, but he was also involved on some big tackles for losses late in the second half to seal the game. Lastly #7 LB Lorenzo Carter was big with his quick pursuit and high motor. I really like his chances to continue to be an impact player if he studies even harder on how to jump tendencies. Where the Dawgs really need to see improvement is on the fat guys up the middle. If they can sort all that out, they can go from scary uh-oh to scary oh-yeah!
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Well, when you give up a kick return TD, and miss a FG, and barely make a 20 yarder to take the lead? I'm going to give special teams an D- in this game. The only reason they don't get an F is because the second FG went in. For the first time in a long time, Georgia doesn't have a kicker and that should scare everyone. Plus they got penalized for a formation issue on special teams, their overall coverage was shaky, and at one point Coach Smart elected to take a time-out instead of a delay of game when trying to incite UNC to jump offsides on 4th down. I'm fine with trying it, but don't give up a second half time-out. You might need those later on.
WHERE THE GAME WAS WON:
In this game Georgia won up front as they continued to abuse UNC for 289 yards on the ground. How did they do it? Here's an example:
You can see here on a short yardage play that UNC has brought 6 men to the line, and 3 more LBs in the box. That's Chubb way back in the back there getting ready to take the handoff from Eason. As it looks on the screen, UNC is in a good position to clog up the lane and get a stop.
Here's the play about one second later. You can drive a truck through that hole in the left side. One of the LBs mistakenly pulled back, one is chasing, and all the line guys have been throughly cleared to the right side of the wash. Hat on a hat as there's still a free lineman looking to hit somebody. Georgia dominated the game this way in their heavy sets, just daring UNC to try and stop it. The Tar Heels couldn't do it, and that's why they lost the game in the long run. Sure, one long pass made it look good at the end, but this one was won up front big-time by the big guys of Georgia.
Wrong.
The win was a good win, and UNC is a good team. Make no mistake about that. However, when you review how Georgia got there, we should give serious pause to the Georgia defense and special teams. Let's break it down for the Dawgs by each unit, starting with the offense.
OFFENSE:
Starting with a few things I noticed in the X's and O's department: The Dawgs were running a ton of power running formations in the game, which means they had 2 TE sets regularly. In fact, one of their favorite running plays was a power I formation with extra protection lined up on the strong side along with a fullback, and then the fullback would motion back behind the QB to provide a lead blocker for the RB. They did this over and over again. Here's what it looked like:
Here you can see the FB pulling back from the strong side to get into position. You can also see how UNC bunched up to protect it with 9 guys in the box. What was shocking is that they almost never ran to the strong side where the extra protection was. Nick Chubb would almost always follow his lead blocker #47 FB Christian Payne to the weak side (in this picture the far side of your screen) with moderate success. I sort of wonder why they never tested the strong side much but that's me.
I'll start with Christian Payne the FB who had a phenomenal game. He was out in front of Chubb or Herrien laying the lumber on tacklers over and over again. On Chubb's first big 20 yard run, it was Payne leading the way. When Herrien took the edge for the first TD, it was Payne setting that edge. When Chubb busted the game-sealing TD late, it was Payne running 7 yards down the field to lay the final block that sprung the play. Christian Payne is really really good, and it shines on film. He's a very big reason why our RBs had the success they did. And his efforts will never show up on the stat sheet.
Obviously, I loved what Chubb did with his big gains. At one point Chubb actually spun over a guy on his way to a 10 yard gain. Not spun past. He ran into the guy as he was spinning, knocked him on his ass, and kept going. The dude looks healthy for sure, and I'm hoping he stays that way all season because he's a unique talent. Anybody that can average near 7 yards a carry in a game is a hero, and Chubb is our hero.
Now when it came to QBs, Kirby Smart kept his word and started Lambert. Most fans hated it and probably thought Lambert did a bad job, while loving what Eason did. I think that's hasty. Lambert's numbers aren't impressive. However, the first TD happened because Lambert converted a huge 3rd down to McKenzie. Lambert was mostly asked to hand off and make small passes. Still, with the game on the line, the ball was in Eason's hands. The play all the Dawg fans will remember is the 3rd and 5 late in the game, where Eason looks off the safety and hits McKenzie deep for a 51 yard gain. That would lead to the go-ahead FG that won the game.
Eason had one big play, but it was the game-deciding play. It was also sort of crazy because most coaches would probably put in their veteran down 2 points in the 4th quarter. Kirby Smart went with the kid and it paid off. Early in the first half, UNC was selling out to stop the run by stacking at least 8 in the box. It didn't matter who was QB, they did it regardless. However, in the 2nd half after Eason showed he could go deep with 2 pass interference calls, UNC started to back off, and that's what got Georgia back in the game. I don't think UNC backs off there unless you prove you can go over the top, and I don't think the Lambert has the capability.
Isiah McKenzie was a freak in this game. He was returning kicks, catching, passes, and scoring TDs. Lost in all the Nick Chubb 222 yards and 2 TDs workload is the work of McKenzie who went for 122 yards receiving with a TD, plus a 24 yard return. Add in the other RB Brian Herrien going for 59 yards and TD, and you had probably some of the best power 1-2 punch combined with a deep threat I've seen in a long time at Georgia.
The one downside I found is Georgia's left tackle #72 Tyler Catalina, who had a disaster of a day. He was responsible for 2 sacks that I saw, 3 penalties alone, and several times where I just watched him look lazy on plays. I didn't like much that I saw out of the kid, and that's not a good thing at one of the most important positions on the line when it comes to the passing game. He will get Eason killed if he continues to start like that. If you want to know what I'm talking about, just watch the first series in the second half as things start to come off the rails for Catalina. I'd be looking for better options if I'm Kirby Smart.
DEFENSE:
Now for the real bad news. The defense has major issues at almost every level. Let's start with the fact the defense produced almost zero pressure all day. UGA was obviously running in a very vanilla 4-rusher set the entire game, and rarely blitzed. They didn't get much with the vanilla set at all. For the first half this didn't matter because the secondary did a great job of knocking down big plays. #2 Maurice Smith made two fantastic plays to knock down sure first TD deep balls that would have turned the game around. Also #14 Malkom Parrish was very solid in coverage all day long, and had some great pursuit on the edges to make tackles, and a breakup of a pass in the end zone that would have been a TD.
Then there's #24 Dominick Sanders who is supposed to be our "best player" on the defense. If he is, I didn't see it. The junior safety looked out of position several times, including a horrible play on special teams on the opening kick of the second half. Sanders took a bad angle, then tried to dodge a block he felt coming, then sort of lollygagged his way as the returner took off past him. He looked like he was more concerned with getting hit than actually making a play. I can't have that. He took a bad angle on a 30 yard gain run that should have been a loss. He got burned on a deep ball along with #12 Juwuan Briscoe, who also had a bad day. Briscoe was the guy who quit on a scramble play by UNC late in the first half, setting up UNC for an easy FG.
How about the line and linebackers? They looked okay in run protection at times, but they were totally lost in pass coverage and rush. There was a series where TJ Logan (who actually had a better day than vaunted RB Elijah Hood) got loose several times while all our guys looked confused. #78 DT Trenton Thompson got burned inside on a 30 yard scamper by Logan that should have been a loss in the backfield. #51 LB David Marshall completely bought a QB fake at the goal line that allowed the UNC QB to waltz uncontested into the end zone. Kirby immediately grabbed Marshall as he was exiting the field to remind him what his job was, in not so kind terms I'm sure. #17 LB Davin Bellamy was almost non-existent and the time I noticed him it was as he got buried on a block by a lineman. All in all, I'm seriously concerned about the UGA ability to pressure anybody that can pass.
Some defensive players that did have good days? They were mostly linebackers. #3 LB Roquan Smith was all over the place, but he looked young and out of position at times too. I like his energy but he needs to get smarter out there. #6 LB Natrez Patrick tried to blitz a few times and didn't get there, so he needs to get better on his lane moves, but he was also involved on some big tackles for losses late in the second half to seal the game. Lastly #7 LB Lorenzo Carter was big with his quick pursuit and high motor. I really like his chances to continue to be an impact player if he studies even harder on how to jump tendencies. Where the Dawgs really need to see improvement is on the fat guys up the middle. If they can sort all that out, they can go from scary uh-oh to scary oh-yeah!
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Well, when you give up a kick return TD, and miss a FG, and barely make a 20 yarder to take the lead? I'm going to give special teams an D- in this game. The only reason they don't get an F is because the second FG went in. For the first time in a long time, Georgia doesn't have a kicker and that should scare everyone. Plus they got penalized for a formation issue on special teams, their overall coverage was shaky, and at one point Coach Smart elected to take a time-out instead of a delay of game when trying to incite UNC to jump offsides on 4th down. I'm fine with trying it, but don't give up a second half time-out. You might need those later on.
WHERE THE GAME WAS WON:
In this game Georgia won up front as they continued to abuse UNC for 289 yards on the ground. How did they do it? Here's an example:
You can see here on a short yardage play that UNC has brought 6 men to the line, and 3 more LBs in the box. That's Chubb way back in the back there getting ready to take the handoff from Eason. As it looks on the screen, UNC is in a good position to clog up the lane and get a stop.
Here's the play about one second later. You can drive a truck through that hole in the left side. One of the LBs mistakenly pulled back, one is chasing, and all the line guys have been throughly cleared to the right side of the wash. Hat on a hat as there's still a free lineman looking to hit somebody. Georgia dominated the game this way in their heavy sets, just daring UNC to try and stop it. The Tar Heels couldn't do it, and that's why they lost the game in the long run. Sure, one long pass made it look good at the end, but this one was won up front big-time by the big guys of Georgia.
Thursday, September 1, 2016
Week One Picks SEC College Football
If you know me, you know I don't like following the public very often. That means I'm typically taking a contrarian strategy with my picks, and letting the chips fall where they may. I've had some success with this in the past, but last year I got sunk constantly by my big money pick failing seemingly every week. With that in mind, I'm going to take a more conservative approach early on. I'll post who I think will win each game and then I'll post the bets.
South Carolina v. Vanderbilt - VANDERBILT
Appalachian State v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Missouri v. West Virginia - MISSOURI
South Alabama v. Mississippi State - MISSISSIPPI STATE
Southern Miss v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Louisiana Tech v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
UMASS v. Florida - FLORIDA
Clemson v. Auburn - CLEMSON
UCLA v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Wisconsin - LSU
North Carolina v. Georgia - NORTH CAROLINA
USC v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Ole Miss v. Florida State - OLE MISS
The upset I see on the list is the Georgia-UNC game and I hope I'm wrong. Repeat, I hope I'm wrong but there's reasons for why I'm thinking this is potential disaster for the Dawgs. For one thing, we have no idea if Grayson Lambert who will start the game can handle a big game atmosphere and move this team. He did a poor job of it last year. Second, the defense on Georgia has a lack of depth supposedly and that's a huge problem with a team operating a high powered offense. Third, the money moved the line in many places from -3.5 on Georgia down to -2.5 right now. That's with over 70% of the bets on the Dawgs. In my mind, the public is HUGE on Georgia, and the money is on UNC. We'll see if the Kirby Smart era is any different than the Richt era on big first games, but my money is sitting on the sidelines for that one until we know more.
BETS:
If I don't list something here, it means I don't think it's worth your time. I'll only put my best picks for the weekend this year on this list along with the units. For the beginning of the year, everything will only be ONE UNIT. We're not trying to be heroes with little information.
FLORIDA -35.5: Look it's a ton of points. But UMASS is one of the worst teams in college football if not the worst, and Florida is going to want to show off their new QB and offense. In 31+ spread games, Florida is 2-0 over the last 3 seasons. I like the Gators in this one.
LSU -10: For some reason people don't think LSU is a great team in bigger games. But I disagree, and I think they come out strong here in this early match. The sharps look like they agree as the line has been pushed up a couple of times. Plus LSU is 13-6 as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA -12: Line started at -10 and it keeps marching. Alabama may have a new QB, but I think they win the game, and there's a chance they win huge.
OLE MISS +4.5: Most people think Florida State is going to contend if not win the ACC, so they are looking for a big start from the Noles. Here's the thing, the Noles are only 10-15 as a favorite ATS while the Rebels are 4-1 as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The money is also trending towards Ole Miss as 70% of bets are on FSU, but the line has dropped from 5.5 to 4.5.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK:
MISSOURI +320: Look, Missouri may not win against West Virginia, but Mizzou's defense is good enough to keep them in the game, and we don't know if their offense has finally gelled in the offseason into something competent. What I do know is that a great defense getting better than 3-1 underdog odds is worth a unit bet on a flyer.
South Carolina v. Vanderbilt - VANDERBILT
Appalachian State v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Missouri v. West Virginia - MISSOURI
South Alabama v. Mississippi State - MISSISSIPPI STATE
Southern Miss v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Louisiana Tech v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
UMASS v. Florida - FLORIDA
Clemson v. Auburn - CLEMSON
UCLA v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Wisconsin - LSU
North Carolina v. Georgia - NORTH CAROLINA
USC v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Ole Miss v. Florida State - OLE MISS
The upset I see on the list is the Georgia-UNC game and I hope I'm wrong. Repeat, I hope I'm wrong but there's reasons for why I'm thinking this is potential disaster for the Dawgs. For one thing, we have no idea if Grayson Lambert who will start the game can handle a big game atmosphere and move this team. He did a poor job of it last year. Second, the defense on Georgia has a lack of depth supposedly and that's a huge problem with a team operating a high powered offense. Third, the money moved the line in many places from -3.5 on Georgia down to -2.5 right now. That's with over 70% of the bets on the Dawgs. In my mind, the public is HUGE on Georgia, and the money is on UNC. We'll see if the Kirby Smart era is any different than the Richt era on big first games, but my money is sitting on the sidelines for that one until we know more.
BETS:
If I don't list something here, it means I don't think it's worth your time. I'll only put my best picks for the weekend this year on this list along with the units. For the beginning of the year, everything will only be ONE UNIT. We're not trying to be heroes with little information.
FLORIDA -35.5: Look it's a ton of points. But UMASS is one of the worst teams in college football if not the worst, and Florida is going to want to show off their new QB and offense. In 31+ spread games, Florida is 2-0 over the last 3 seasons. I like the Gators in this one.
LSU -10: For some reason people don't think LSU is a great team in bigger games. But I disagree, and I think they come out strong here in this early match. The sharps look like they agree as the line has been pushed up a couple of times. Plus LSU is 13-6 as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA -12: Line started at -10 and it keeps marching. Alabama may have a new QB, but I think they win the game, and there's a chance they win huge.
OLE MISS +4.5: Most people think Florida State is going to contend if not win the ACC, so they are looking for a big start from the Noles. Here's the thing, the Noles are only 10-15 as a favorite ATS while the Rebels are 4-1 as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The money is also trending towards Ole Miss as 70% of bets are on FSU, but the line has dropped from 5.5 to 4.5.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK:
MISSOURI +320: Look, Missouri may not win against West Virginia, but Mizzou's defense is good enough to keep them in the game, and we don't know if their offense has finally gelled in the offseason into something competent. What I do know is that a great defense getting better than 3-1 underdog odds is worth a unit bet on a flyer.
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