SEC College Football Picks Week 3

Well we had a much better Week in Week 2 didn't we? The picks went 4-1, so we're up to 1 unit to the good. We weathered the storm of little information and came out ahead. Now we have some actual data to work with, and I think we can get even better. Let's check out the games

Straight up Picks:

Ohio v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Georgia Tech - GEORGIA TECH
Alabama v. Mississippi - ALABAMA
East Carolina v. South Carolina - EAST CAROLINA
New Mexico State v. Kentucky - NEW MEXICO STATE
Texas A&M v. Auburn - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Mississippi State - LSU
Georgia v. Missouri - GEORGIA
North Texas v. Florida - FLORIDA
Texas State v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS

New Mexico State will be the big upset of the week as I think Kentucky is completely hopeless. I think their staff has lost direction and they may not win another game. Also, East Carolina is a good team and they will take care of a bad South Carolina squad.

BETTING PICKS (UNITS INDICATED NEXT TO PICK)

ALABAMA -11 over Ole Miss 2 Units - Alabama is better than FSU right now across the board, and Chad Kelly got lucky last year thanks to Alabama being careless with the ball. I don't think they are careless this time.

VANDERBILT +6.5 over GA Tech 1 Unit - This one is about the points. I expect Tech to grind this one out at home, and I think they win by a late FG.

OHIO +28 over Tennessee 1 Unit - The Vols are coming off two wins where they started slow. They have Florida next week. They aren't looking at this game as a threat at all, and as such I don't think they care about putting up 5 scores on Ohio.

East Carolina +3 over South Carolina 1 Unit - Honestly East Carolina is the better team and you're getting points. Take them and run with it.

TEXAS STATE +31 over Arkansas 1 Unit - Arkansas is coming off TCU, looking at A&M next week, and in the middle you have this game against a Texas State team that LOVES to fling the ball. And Arkansas just happened to be 109th in pass defense right now. It's a closer game than Arkansas would like, who have only played close games.

FLYER MONEY LINE PICK OF THE WEEK:

NEW MEXICO STATE +750 against Kentucky - Will Kentucky lose? Maybe. I don't see any reason on any of my metric to believe they are a huge favorite in this game, but Vegas has them as a 19.5 point favorite. NM State is coming off a big win over New Mexico, and they can put up points. I would think this one ends 24-23 or something like that.