Week Two Picks SEC College Football

Geez what a weird week one. Tons of teams lost to complete crap, and my picks suffered accordingly. For those of you who bet on week one big, I told you not to do that because we don't really know much. Right now we know a little but still not enough. Until after Week 3, I don't believe you have enough data to start really betting up teams, unless you see a big stat advantage historically.

Picks last week went 1-3, which means we're down 2 units. I lost LSU, Florida, and Ole Miss. I shouldn't have lost that Ole Miss game but they choked it away in the second half. Live and learn. I won the pick on Alabama easily. Let's see what we've got this week. Again, I'm only going with 1 unit plays until after Week 3 most likely.

Here are my straight up picks for the teams not playing FCS cupcakes:

Western Kentucky v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Kentucky v. Florida - FLORIDA
Middle Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -  MIDDLE TENNESSEE
South Carolina v. Mississippi State - SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas v. TCU - TCU
Arkansas State v. Auburn - AUBURN
Eastern Michigan v. Missouri - MISSOURI
Virginia Tech v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE

BETTING PICKS: (ALL ONE UNIT)

I call Week 2 overreaction Saturday because the lines increase a ton, and people love to treat blowout teams or bad performances like gospel. That means I end up taking a lot of underdogs.

Western Kentucky +29.5 over Alabama: Yes, Bama rolled big, and the line adjusted for it. Usually Vegas inflates things after a blowout to get the number back in line. In reality if this was Week 1 the spread is probably 21, and then you might have a question. But more than 4 TDs in a game Nick Saban is likely to pull everyone? I'll take the points.

ARKANSAS +7.5 over TCU: Make no mistake, Arkansas looked bad. But they looked bad because they turned the ball over a ton, and didn't take LA Tech seriously. They absolutely will take TCU seriously, who also looked bad defensively against a SD State team they got into a shootout with. Arkansas's defense won't allow that same amount of production, and their ground and pound game can burn clock while making TCU sit there. I think it stays within a TD.

Arkansas State +19.5 over Auburn: Auburn hasn't proven they can move the ball without changed QBs 14 times and screwing it up. Also Arkansas State is no slouch. Auburn almost lost to Jacksonville State last year, and Arkansas State is easily on par with Vanderbilt right now if not better. I think they can hang with Auburn.

MISSOURI -25 over Eastern Michigan: EMich sucks. Even though Missouri isn't good, there's no reason to believe they can't torch a bad Eastern Michigan team who was one of the worst power ranked teams in football last season.

TENNESSEE -12 over VA Tech: I wanted to load up on this game so badly, but the line didn't go anywhere near what I expected. I was thinking about 7 after Tennessee struggled, but the sharpies are moving the line hard on this one all the way up to 12. I'll lay the 12 but I don't love it like I would something under 10.

Flyer Money Line Pick of the Week:

MIDDLE TENNESSEE +170: If you're looking to make an underdog pick this week, go with Middle Tennessee over Vanderbilt. You'll get close to 2-1 against a Vandy team that I think has next to zero offense, while Middle Tennessee proved this and last year they can hang 30+ up there with no problems.