SEC College Football Picks Week 5

OK so last week Georgia got annihilated and I talked myself into that pick because of my bias. I fully admit that. The thing is even though my SEC picks went 1-3, which means we're down 5 units now, the rest of my picks that week went 7-3 in the other conferences. So I know the system works, but I also know now that it devalued teams with hard starting opponents like Ole Miss. With that in mind, I'll be avoiding Ole Miss for at least 3 more weeks while they normalize. Also, the Florida injury still plays a huge part in what they are doing. With that in mind, they are off my board as well.

STRAIGHT UP PICKS:

Florida v. Vandy - FLORIDA
Louisiana-Monre v. Auburn - AUBURN
Tennessee v. Georgia - TENNESSEE
Texas A&M v. South Carolina - TEXAS A&M
Memphis v. Mississippi - MISSISSIPPI
Kentucky v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Missouri v. LSU - MISSOURI

BETTING PICKS (units indicated)

Lousiana-Monroe v. Auburn -33.5 - Take LOUSIANA MONROE +33.5 (1 UNIT). Auburn's offense is moving the ball better, but LM can score 17+ points against anybody. So the question is do you believe that Auburn will hang 51 on them? I'm going to guess probably not with a unit on the line.

Tennessee v. Georgia +4 - Take TENNESSEE -4 (1 UNIT). As much as it pains me, Georgia isn't a good football team right now. Yes, it's a trap line. Yes, Tennessee has yet to play a single road game this season. And that's why we're only going one unit. But right now the trench battle is in TN's favor, and Kirby has never really proven he can defend well against mobile QBs even at Alabama, let alone with inferior talent.

Kentucky v. Alabama - Take ALABAMA -35 (1 UNIT). Alabama is 3-1 ATS this season while Kentucky is 1-3, and that's why Vegas will continue to give you really high lines. The thing is, I've got Alabama as a 40 point better team on a neutral field, which at home puts them around 6 TDs better than a woeful Kentucky team. If Saban won't even call off the dogs against Kent State, he might just run up 60 on Kentucky.

Missouri v. LSU - Take MISSOURI +13 (2 UNITS). LSU just fired their coach. Missouri can throw on almost anybody, and LSU hasn't proven they can do a damn thing on offense. Yet they are a 13 point favorite at home. Maybe it's a trap too, but I don't see how LSU is that much better than Mizzou. Certainly LSU can win, but by 2 scores? The only team they've done that against is Jacksonville State.

Texas A&M v. South Carolina O/U 47.5 - Give me the OVER 47.5 (2 UNITS). I love the over play here because A&M is averaging out on normalized total points around 68 in their games. South Carolina is somewhere in the 48 on points on their totals.

FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK:

We've gotten close on a few of these, but hit none. This might be the week. Give me MISSOURI getting +380 going into death valley. Why not? Maybe the coaching change sparks the LSU team and they rally, but I don't think coaching was an issue in throwing the football, and LSU hasn't done that in several years.