No preview this week because the games are mostly awful. There's one that stands out: Ole Miss and LSU. But the problem is that game still effectively only carries a negative. IF Ole Miss loses, that clinches the West for Alabama. However, I don't think negatives are important enough to preview since an Alabama win over Auburn is all it will take to clinch as well, regardless of the Ole Miss outcome.
With that said, here's the picks!
3 Unit Play:
LSU @ Ole Miss -6.5: OLE MISS -6.5 - Strategy play here, but the betting community is 76% on LSU, while the spread has moved from -4.5 open to -6.5 line. That tells you the large money is on Ole Miss and that's where I'm heading too.
2 Unit Plays:
MS State @ Arkansas -4.5: ARKANSAS -4.5 - Arkansas is the hotter team right now, and I've doubted them enough this year. But at home? In a game that essentially means nothing to MS State now? I like the hogs.
Tennessee @ Missouri +7: TENNESSEE -7 - Tennessee has been a disappointing favorite this year only going 3-3 in those games ATS, but Missouri is worse and can't really score. Assuming Tennessee can put 14 points on the board, they can cover.
Texas A&M @ Vandy +7: TEXAS A&M -7 - Yes it's Vandy at home and Vandy has done a great job as an underdog. But this is prisoner of the moment stuff and Texas A&M is a much better team than Vanderbilt, regardless of A&M getting punked by Auburn.
1 Unit Cupcake Plays:
Florida Atlantic @ Florida -31: FLORIDA -31 - Spread's huge and the gamblers are lining up to go the other way given Florida's struggles, but this is a 2-8 team in a bad league playing an SEC East Champion. Florida blows doors in the Swamp.
The Citadel @ South Carolina -20: THE CITADEL +20 - Interesting spread here, because I think at -21 South Carolina action swings to the Citadel, and if it's swinging on one point, I'll take the points.
Idaho @ Auburn -34: AUBURN -34 - Another game where the popular pick is Idaho and the points, but the big money is pushing the line from 31 to 34. That means the sharps are on Auburn and so am I in this one.
Charleston Southern @ Alabama -38.5: CHARLESTON SOUTHERN +38.5 - This is a fair line, and one that's really tight. Nick Saban traditionally doesn't give a damn about these games, and he'll call off the dogs when he feels he's made his point. I'm taking the points.
Georgia Southern @ Georgia -13.5: GEORGIA -13.5 - People are afraid of taking Georgia in this game, which is dumb. They think because Georgia's offense stinks this will be close. No, it won't. Georgia wins and wins big to prove a point because Richt knows he needs style points.
Charlotte @ Kentucky -24.5: CHARLOTTE +24.5 - I wouldn't lay 24.5 points on Kentucky playing against a high school team. And while Charlotte's defense is terrible, they can still score points. And I'm not sure that Kentucky can put up 34+ on them, which they will need to cover this.
Friday, November 20, 2015
Saturday, November 14, 2015
SEC Picks Week 11!
Sorry for the delay on the picks, but you should be using these as mainly comedy while you watch my teams have the games won and then blow them in the second half. I'm looking at you Tennessee. Anyway I'm down 11 units now because I got aggressive and lost. That's the risk you take. But I'm not going to stop now. 20 units is my usual season bankroll, so we're going to keep picking until I go down the with ship. Laughing all the way at the upsets. I mean Arkansas winning outright? Auburn destroying A&M? SC actually hanging 21 on Tennessee in a quarter? The world is upside down.
FOUR UNIT PLAY
Arkansas @ LSU -7: LSU -7 - Again, prisoner of the moment stuff with Arkansas. This spread would be probably 14 points if LSU won and Arkansas lost last week. Instead, LSU was beaten by the best team in the country, and Arkansas pulled a game out of its ass. I'll take a really pissed off Tigers team at home who is going to stay alive in discussion against a very average Arkansas run defense. Four units.
TWO UNIT PLAYS
Alabama @ Mississippi State +8: ALABAMA -8 - Alabama always wins this game. They've won it 7 years in a row. Mississippi State might get some picks as a prisoner of the moment, but the only way this stays close is if Dak Prescott turns into Superman, and that's too much of a risk to bet on it. Two units.
ONE UNIT PLAYS
Georgia @ Auburn EVEN: GEORGIA EVEN - This game is a coinflip, but I'll put a unit on the Dawgs for one reason, they just happen to defend the run pretty well. Not against great opponents, mind you, but Auburn isn't a great opponent.
Florida @ South Carolina +7.5: FLORIDA -7.5 - I'm taking the Gators with one unit because of the hook. Florida's offense struggled with Vandy, South Carolina showed they can hang with a team at home. But Florida's defense is infinitely better than South Carolina, and South Carolina can't stop even a pedestrian offense.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -3.5: VANDY -3.5 - Too many people are taking Kentucky in this game for my taste. 60% of the money is on Kentucky, who hasn't proven anything since beating a terrible Mizzou team. Vandy went toe to toe with one of the best defenses in the SEC and gave it away at the end of the road. I think it's prisoner of the moment stuff, so I'll go with the home team.
BYU v. Missouri +5.5: MIZZOU +5.5 - I'll take a small number on Missouri in this one. Gary Pinkel just announced he's going to retire for health reasons, the campus is going through some major changes, and the team will band together. I'm betting on an emotional lift for the Tigers in this game. One unit.
FOUR UNIT PLAY
Arkansas @ LSU -7: LSU -7 - Again, prisoner of the moment stuff with Arkansas. This spread would be probably 14 points if LSU won and Arkansas lost last week. Instead, LSU was beaten by the best team in the country, and Arkansas pulled a game out of its ass. I'll take a really pissed off Tigers team at home who is going to stay alive in discussion against a very average Arkansas run defense. Four units.
TWO UNIT PLAYS
Alabama @ Mississippi State +8: ALABAMA -8 - Alabama always wins this game. They've won it 7 years in a row. Mississippi State might get some picks as a prisoner of the moment, but the only way this stays close is if Dak Prescott turns into Superman, and that's too much of a risk to bet on it. Two units.
ONE UNIT PLAYS
Georgia @ Auburn EVEN: GEORGIA EVEN - This game is a coinflip, but I'll put a unit on the Dawgs for one reason, they just happen to defend the run pretty well. Not against great opponents, mind you, but Auburn isn't a great opponent.
Florida @ South Carolina +7.5: FLORIDA -7.5 - I'm taking the Gators with one unit because of the hook. Florida's offense struggled with Vandy, South Carolina showed they can hang with a team at home. But Florida's defense is infinitely better than South Carolina, and South Carolina can't stop even a pedestrian offense.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -3.5: VANDY -3.5 - Too many people are taking Kentucky in this game for my taste. 60% of the money is on Kentucky, who hasn't proven anything since beating a terrible Mizzou team. Vandy went toe to toe with one of the best defenses in the SEC and gave it away at the end of the road. I think it's prisoner of the moment stuff, so I'll go with the home team.
BYU v. Missouri +5.5: MIZZOU +5.5 - I'll take a small number on Missouri in this one. Gary Pinkel just announced he's going to retire for health reasons, the campus is going through some major changes, and the team will band together. I'm betting on an emotional lift for the Tigers in this game. One unit.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
SEC Week 11 Preview: Alabama v. Mississippi State
Let's take a look at the schedule this week:
Georgia plays Auburn - Meaningless because the East is decided.
Florida plays South Carolina - Only meaningful if Florida loses because it would affect them in the college football playoff, but this Florida team as composed with a backup QB isn't winning the SEC.
Kentucky plays Vandy - This should be LAUGHABLE and meaningless.
Arkansas plays LSU - The Alabama loss means LSU has to win this, and Alabama has to take a loss.
BYU plays Missouri - Relevant because Established Racism plays newly admonished Racism.
North Texas plays Tennessee - Really?
Western Carolina plays A&M - Only funny because A&M might lose if they play like they did against Auburn.
So that leaves us Alabama and Mississippi State as the only game with true meaning left in the SEC this weekend. Oh and it gets way way worse the week after this on what I'm dubbing "The Late Week SEC Bake Sale." You'll see what I mean when you look at the Week 12 schedule. It will make you sick as a CFB fan.
I'll skip the analysis of Alabama as a whole and point out what they did in the LSU game. They destroyed LSU. Make no bones about it, it was strength on strength. Alabama's run defense versus LSU's running attack. And in battles of offense vs. defensive strength, defense usually wins. That was no different here. Here's what I wrote from last week on why Bama would win:
Moving forward, Alabama plays Mississippi State, which you probably haven't paid much attention to this season. And with good reason. Despite being 17th ranked in the country (which is a glorious indication of how hilariously bad teams are this season at the top 25 spots) Mississippi State has flubbed their only two meaningful games. They lost to ranked LSU and ranked A&M. Their wins are over Southern Miss, NW State, Auburn, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Kentucky, and Missouri. Go ahead and tell me what impresses you about those wins. Answer? NADA.
So with that in mind, Mississippi State is about to play what I consider to be the most complete team in the country as it stands right now. A team that shuts down running attacks and is basically only vulnerable on turnovers and the passing game. Can Mississippi State hang with such a team? The answer might shock you.
Mississippi State passing game is 2nd in the SEC only to Ole Miss, the only team to beat Alabama. They are careful with the ball, sporting a 22-1 TD-INT rate, and almost 300 yards a game through the air. Yes, a lot of that is the competition they play. Yes, they've lost the ranked games they played. However, the loss to LSU was by 2 points at home and their offense is one of the few that's capable of making comebacks and overcoming deficits because they can score. They have an actual QB that's been around the block in Dak Prescott.
Downsides? They haven't beaten Alabama since 2007. Their defense is worse than Georgia and LSU against the run, teams that couldn't even compete with Derrick Henry running them over. They don't cause a ton of turnovers, which is usually Alabama's Achilles heel. Oh, and in general nobody actually believes that Mississippi State is as good as their ranking, or has a chance in hell in this game. Probably the players don't even believe it, and if they get down by 3 scores, they'll quit. So let's see what it will take to win.
Alabama Wins If:
It plays Alabama football. Derrick Henry goes for 100+ and a TD, they get some good defensive stops. Lane Kiffin dials up some shots down the field to Ridley when nobody is looking for them. And of course, they don't turn the ball over. Key point there as always. They don't have to be special. This isn't a tough game for them if they play smart football.
Mississippi State Wins If:
Dak Prescott turns into Superman and goes for 350+ in the air, with 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD. He has to be mobile and he has to confuse the Bama defense. The secondary needs to be exposed after he looks like he's running and then takes the top off the defense. Oh and the defense has to sell out to stop Derrick Henry from controlling the ground game. Stack the box and make Coker have to put the game on his shoulders.
All in all, this is one of the last two challenges Alabama has left. The last one if a very mediocre Auburn team, but both are on the road and the last one is the biggest rivalry. We'll see if Alabama can pass this test to put Auburn between themselves and a title shot.
Georgia plays Auburn - Meaningless because the East is decided.
Florida plays South Carolina - Only meaningful if Florida loses because it would affect them in the college football playoff, but this Florida team as composed with a backup QB isn't winning the SEC.
Kentucky plays Vandy - This should be LAUGHABLE and meaningless.
Arkansas plays LSU - The Alabama loss means LSU has to win this, and Alabama has to take a loss.
BYU plays Missouri - Relevant because Established Racism plays newly admonished Racism.
North Texas plays Tennessee - Really?
Western Carolina plays A&M - Only funny because A&M might lose if they play like they did against Auburn.
So that leaves us Alabama and Mississippi State as the only game with true meaning left in the SEC this weekend. Oh and it gets way way worse the week after this on what I'm dubbing "The Late Week SEC Bake Sale." You'll see what I mean when you look at the Week 12 schedule. It will make you sick as a CFB fan.
I'll skip the analysis of Alabama as a whole and point out what they did in the LSU game. They destroyed LSU. Make no bones about it, it was strength on strength. Alabama's run defense versus LSU's running attack. And in battles of offense vs. defensive strength, defense usually wins. That was no different here. Here's what I wrote from last week on why Bama would win:
"The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed."That's exactly what happened. It was a real question of which team would show up in terms of domination, but I had no doubts what would have to happen for Alabama to claim victory. Alabama got up 10-0 in the second quarter, and Leonard Fournette had less than 40 yards in the game all day. Game Over, Man! You can't win as an LSU team throwing the ball. They haven't had a game-changer QB in what seems like a decade.
Moving forward, Alabama plays Mississippi State, which you probably haven't paid much attention to this season. And with good reason. Despite being 17th ranked in the country (which is a glorious indication of how hilariously bad teams are this season at the top 25 spots) Mississippi State has flubbed their only two meaningful games. They lost to ranked LSU and ranked A&M. Their wins are over Southern Miss, NW State, Auburn, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Kentucky, and Missouri. Go ahead and tell me what impresses you about those wins. Answer? NADA.
So with that in mind, Mississippi State is about to play what I consider to be the most complete team in the country as it stands right now. A team that shuts down running attacks and is basically only vulnerable on turnovers and the passing game. Can Mississippi State hang with such a team? The answer might shock you.
Mississippi State passing game is 2nd in the SEC only to Ole Miss, the only team to beat Alabama. They are careful with the ball, sporting a 22-1 TD-INT rate, and almost 300 yards a game through the air. Yes, a lot of that is the competition they play. Yes, they've lost the ranked games they played. However, the loss to LSU was by 2 points at home and their offense is one of the few that's capable of making comebacks and overcoming deficits because they can score. They have an actual QB that's been around the block in Dak Prescott.
Downsides? They haven't beaten Alabama since 2007. Their defense is worse than Georgia and LSU against the run, teams that couldn't even compete with Derrick Henry running them over. They don't cause a ton of turnovers, which is usually Alabama's Achilles heel. Oh, and in general nobody actually believes that Mississippi State is as good as their ranking, or has a chance in hell in this game. Probably the players don't even believe it, and if they get down by 3 scores, they'll quit. So let's see what it will take to win.
Alabama Wins If:
It plays Alabama football. Derrick Henry goes for 100+ and a TD, they get some good defensive stops. Lane Kiffin dials up some shots down the field to Ridley when nobody is looking for them. And of course, they don't turn the ball over. Key point there as always. They don't have to be special. This isn't a tough game for them if they play smart football.
Mississippi State Wins If:
Dak Prescott turns into Superman and goes for 350+ in the air, with 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD. He has to be mobile and he has to confuse the Bama defense. The secondary needs to be exposed after he looks like he's running and then takes the top off the defense. Oh and the defense has to sell out to stop Derrick Henry from controlling the ground game. Stack the box and make Coker have to put the game on his shoulders.
All in all, this is one of the last two challenges Alabama has left. The last one if a very mediocre Auburn team, but both are on the road and the last one is the biggest rivalry. We'll see if Alabama can pass this test to put Auburn between themselves and a title shot.
Friday, November 6, 2015
SEC Picks Week 10!
One pick under last week. Down 5 units on the season, so it's time to get a little more aggressive. I'm going to make a few more bold moves since we only have a few weeks left of picks. Obviously, more risk, but the rewards can be higher, and we have more data to work with. However, this season has been crazy so what looks like an obvious play has been anything but. That's why it's all about playing the systems and sticking to the numbers.
Four Unit Play:
South Carolina @ Tennessee -17: I like TENNESSEE -17. South Carolina stinks. Tennessee has found their offensive stride and is starting to ramp up their confidence. South Carolina has no real coach and no real QB plus they are on the road. This is my number one pick of the week. Four units.
Two Unit Plays:
Vandy @ Florida -21: I like VANDY +21. Florida has been crushing it ATS with a 5-2 record, but the lines have mostly been close. Now? Vegas is trying to push the limits and force people to make a hard decision. Vandy is 4-2 ATS as the underdog, and Florida is 0-1 when the spread gets this high, 3-4 when it's this high over the last 3 years. Two units.
Auburn @ Texas A&M -7: I like TEXAS A&M -7. Eventually Auburn will cover a spread, but they are 1-6 on the year, and they are 0-3 on the road. Texas A&M has bucked their trend and been 4-2 as a favorite. Until that changes, I'm going against Auburn the rest of the way. Two units.
One Unit Plays:
Kentucky @ UGA -14.5: I like KENTUCKY +14.5. Both Kentucky and UGA are horrific against the spread this year. I'm not better much on this one, but when given a 2TD hook my gut usually says take the points. Also, with UGA not knowing who is the QB? I'm worried the UGA offense will continue to have issues. One unit.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -10: I like ARKANSAS +10. Ole Miss has been great at home ATS, but they've also played no offenses of consequence. Arkansas is a good running team with a decent defense, so I like a closer game. Not a huge play though. One unit.
LSU @ Alabama -7: I like LSU +7. LSU isn't used to being an underdog, and in fact they haven't been one all season. But Bama has been awful at home. AWFUL. 0-5 ATS awful. They lost to Ole Miss at home and have struggled in every game there so far this year. It's supposed to rain also, and Leonard Fournette is coming to town. Small play because of the magnitude, my rule is never bet heavy on a game of the week. The lines are tight for a reason. One unit.
Four Unit Play:
South Carolina @ Tennessee -17: I like TENNESSEE -17. South Carolina stinks. Tennessee has found their offensive stride and is starting to ramp up their confidence. South Carolina has no real coach and no real QB plus they are on the road. This is my number one pick of the week. Four units.
Two Unit Plays:
Vandy @ Florida -21: I like VANDY +21. Florida has been crushing it ATS with a 5-2 record, but the lines have mostly been close. Now? Vegas is trying to push the limits and force people to make a hard decision. Vandy is 4-2 ATS as the underdog, and Florida is 0-1 when the spread gets this high, 3-4 when it's this high over the last 3 years. Two units.
Auburn @ Texas A&M -7: I like TEXAS A&M -7. Eventually Auburn will cover a spread, but they are 1-6 on the year, and they are 0-3 on the road. Texas A&M has bucked their trend and been 4-2 as a favorite. Until that changes, I'm going against Auburn the rest of the way. Two units.
One Unit Plays:
Kentucky @ UGA -14.5: I like KENTUCKY +14.5. Both Kentucky and UGA are horrific against the spread this year. I'm not better much on this one, but when given a 2TD hook my gut usually says take the points. Also, with UGA not knowing who is the QB? I'm worried the UGA offense will continue to have issues. One unit.
Arkansas @ Ole Miss -10: I like ARKANSAS +10. Ole Miss has been great at home ATS, but they've also played no offenses of consequence. Arkansas is a good running team with a decent defense, so I like a closer game. Not a huge play though. One unit.
LSU @ Alabama -7: I like LSU +7. LSU isn't used to being an underdog, and in fact they haven't been one all season. But Bama has been awful at home. AWFUL. 0-5 ATS awful. They lost to Ole Miss at home and have struggled in every game there so far this year. It's supposed to rain also, and Leonard Fournette is coming to town. Small play because of the magnitude, my rule is never bet heavy on a game of the week. The lines are tight for a reason. One unit.
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Week 10 Game of the Week Preview: Alabama v. LSU
There's only one game that will determine the SEC for sure this week, and that's Alabama v. LSU in Tuscaloosa. A true night game matchup that will in all likelihood either knock LSU or Alabama out of contention for the SEC West title. So how do these teams match up against each other?
LSU Strengths:
Obviously Leonard Fournette is the number one strength for LSU. If you take him away, I don't think that LSU is remotely as good without him, or even in contention for anything of consequence. What makes Fournette so special? Well, for starters he's big. 6'1" and 230 pounds is no joke for a running back. Second, he's faster than most defensive backs. Watch his tapes and look at Fournette's game-breaking plays where he gets into the secondary. He's turning on the jets and those speedsters at much smaller weights can't catch him. Third, he's got undeniable bowl-you-over power in his game. Take a look at the Auburn tape and watch Fournette shed blockers like your mama shaking off a winter shawl as she comes into the house.
But the LSU defense isn't to be denied their due either. While they aren't as good as say Alabama, Missouri, or Florida, they are still right up there with those defenses in terms of overall speed and power. They are amazing against the run, second to only Alabama in the conference. They are a ball-hawking defense that thrives on turnovers, 2nd in the conference in turnover margin. Overall, they look like they can swarm to the ball easily and make the big tackles in space. It's a challenge for Alabama's run-heavy offense.
LSU Weaknesses:
The LSU passing game is almost non-existent. For good reason since they have Leonard Fournette, they aren't really required to pass much. They've yet to run into an opponent who can stop their rushing attack, and that included a very good defense in Florida. The key to evaluating LSU's pass game isn't to look at their yards per game or attempts per game, both of which are dead last in the SEC. Rather, look at the overall yards per attempt, which is tied for 3rd in the SEC, and their TD-INT rate which is 9-0. LSU hasn't thrown any interceptions this year, so while this is a weakness in terms of the fact it hasn't really been tested, I'm not sure it can't be effective.
LSU has a penalty problem. That's another big weakness for them, and it's yet to bite them in the butt. They average over 7 penalties a game (dead last in the SEC), and while that doesn't matter against Western Kentucky, it would be a huge problem against Alabama. Also, they've had issues getting teams off the field on 3rd down, in addition to actually getting a pass-rush on the QB. Alabama may have to adjust their overall attack against LSU, because the way to beat them is to throw the ball. Since they have issues getting pressure, QB Jacob Coker should have more time to throw for Alabama, and that's bad news if Lane Kiffin is scheming correctly. And remember, Lane Kiffin is ALWAYS scheming.
Alabama Strengths:
In a word, Balance. Alabama is one of the most offensively balanced teams in the SEC, and that balance makes them extremely hard to defend. If you push them on the run, they will open up the passing game with great receivers like Calvin Ridley and Richard Mullaney. If you decide to blitz and play close on pass protections, they can pound you right up the middle with Derrick Henry in the rushing game. There is no huge weakness in this Alabama offense, but there's also no one completely head-and-shoulders talent that outshines the rest of the team either.
Defensively, Alabama prides itself in taking away your running game. This will be their pentultimate test of will against the best running back in the country by my estimation. But as Florida found out the hard way, stopping Leonard Fournette is not a simple task. If they can, that plays into their strategy of commanding the front line, eating up possessions, and forcing the other team to take chances. Once Alabama gets a lead, it's very VERY hard to take away. They are great at closing out opponents and imposing their will.
Alabama Weaknesses:
As I said in a prior article, the main one for Alabama is turnovers which I won't belabor too much. However, they are playing one of the best turnover margin teams in the league, so I would be remiss if I didn't mention that LSU can make this very one-sided if Alabama gets careless with the ball. Also, Alabama's passing attack can be inconsistent. At times they can beat you deep and make you look ridiculous. Other times Coker will throw into double coverages and make horrible decisions. It's sort of a coin flip on which QB shows up possession by possession, which is why Nick Saban would want to run the ball first.
LSU Wins If:
Fournette goes for 200+ yards and 2 TDs, and the LSU defense gets 2 turnovers out of Alabama. I don't believe that LSU can go toe-to-toe with this Alabama team and not capitalize on turnovers if they hope to win. Hat on a hat, strength on strength, something has to give in these types of games.
Alabama Wins If:
The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed.
Picks on Friday, if you're still paying attention to those in order to mock my silliness.
LSU Strengths:
Obviously Leonard Fournette is the number one strength for LSU. If you take him away, I don't think that LSU is remotely as good without him, or even in contention for anything of consequence. What makes Fournette so special? Well, for starters he's big. 6'1" and 230 pounds is no joke for a running back. Second, he's faster than most defensive backs. Watch his tapes and look at Fournette's game-breaking plays where he gets into the secondary. He's turning on the jets and those speedsters at much smaller weights can't catch him. Third, he's got undeniable bowl-you-over power in his game. Take a look at the Auburn tape and watch Fournette shed blockers like your mama shaking off a winter shawl as she comes into the house.
But the LSU defense isn't to be denied their due either. While they aren't as good as say Alabama, Missouri, or Florida, they are still right up there with those defenses in terms of overall speed and power. They are amazing against the run, second to only Alabama in the conference. They are a ball-hawking defense that thrives on turnovers, 2nd in the conference in turnover margin. Overall, they look like they can swarm to the ball easily and make the big tackles in space. It's a challenge for Alabama's run-heavy offense.
LSU Weaknesses:
The LSU passing game is almost non-existent. For good reason since they have Leonard Fournette, they aren't really required to pass much. They've yet to run into an opponent who can stop their rushing attack, and that included a very good defense in Florida. The key to evaluating LSU's pass game isn't to look at their yards per game or attempts per game, both of which are dead last in the SEC. Rather, look at the overall yards per attempt, which is tied for 3rd in the SEC, and their TD-INT rate which is 9-0. LSU hasn't thrown any interceptions this year, so while this is a weakness in terms of the fact it hasn't really been tested, I'm not sure it can't be effective.
LSU has a penalty problem. That's another big weakness for them, and it's yet to bite them in the butt. They average over 7 penalties a game (dead last in the SEC), and while that doesn't matter against Western Kentucky, it would be a huge problem against Alabama. Also, they've had issues getting teams off the field on 3rd down, in addition to actually getting a pass-rush on the QB. Alabama may have to adjust their overall attack against LSU, because the way to beat them is to throw the ball. Since they have issues getting pressure, QB Jacob Coker should have more time to throw for Alabama, and that's bad news if Lane Kiffin is scheming correctly. And remember, Lane Kiffin is ALWAYS scheming.
Alabama Strengths:
In a word, Balance. Alabama is one of the most offensively balanced teams in the SEC, and that balance makes them extremely hard to defend. If you push them on the run, they will open up the passing game with great receivers like Calvin Ridley and Richard Mullaney. If you decide to blitz and play close on pass protections, they can pound you right up the middle with Derrick Henry in the rushing game. There is no huge weakness in this Alabama offense, but there's also no one completely head-and-shoulders talent that outshines the rest of the team either.
Defensively, Alabama prides itself in taking away your running game. This will be their pentultimate test of will against the best running back in the country by my estimation. But as Florida found out the hard way, stopping Leonard Fournette is not a simple task. If they can, that plays into their strategy of commanding the front line, eating up possessions, and forcing the other team to take chances. Once Alabama gets a lead, it's very VERY hard to take away. They are great at closing out opponents and imposing their will.
Alabama Weaknesses:
As I said in a prior article, the main one for Alabama is turnovers which I won't belabor too much. However, they are playing one of the best turnover margin teams in the league, so I would be remiss if I didn't mention that LSU can make this very one-sided if Alabama gets careless with the ball. Also, Alabama's passing attack can be inconsistent. At times they can beat you deep and make you look ridiculous. Other times Coker will throw into double coverages and make horrible decisions. It's sort of a coin flip on which QB shows up possession by possession, which is why Nick Saban would want to run the ball first.
LSU Wins If:
Fournette goes for 200+ yards and 2 TDs, and the LSU defense gets 2 turnovers out of Alabama. I don't believe that LSU can go toe-to-toe with this Alabama team and not capitalize on turnovers if they hope to win. Hat on a hat, strength on strength, something has to give in these types of games.
Alabama Wins If:
The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed.
Picks on Friday, if you're still paying attention to those in order to mock my silliness.
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