Only one game to cover this week since so many of the games were either against crap teams or lopsided bloodbaths. But this one? This one was a doozy. Sorry in advance Tennessee fans since I'm recapping two of probably the worst losses in recent history, but it was the CBS game of the week and Tennessee was looking for redemption against a down Gator team they hadn't beaten in a decade. That streak lives on at 11 years now after the 4th down Florida heroics gave them the victory.
I've gone over Tennessee's issues before, so I'll recap them in brief here. Dobbs can't really throw the ball well, and the Tennessee offense doesn't put people away. Both those things happened again in this game, and it's the reason they lost. However, the positives for Tennessee fans is that Dobbs was great running the ball, and catching the ball oddly enough. Also, Jalen Hurd really raised his intensity level in the second half and fought for some long runs that got Tennessee the big lead they had.
The big plays for Tennessee were mostly trick plays. The first was a throwback pass to Dobbs, who then took off to the house for a TD. The second was a 4th down Tebow-style jump pass that kept the Tennessee drive moving on to another TD. Both passes were by wide receivers. So Dobbs actually had no touchdown passes in this game (not really shocking to me as a critic of his play). He had a RECEIVING touchdown (very shocking to me), and Jalen Hurd had two running TDs. And I liked the way Hurd played in this game. His yards per carry average wasn't great, but he was backing Florida off the line, and opening up the offense for Dobbs on QB-keeper runs. It's like the Tennessee coaching staff realized their QB was a liability throwing the ball, and instead switched completely to a run-option look for Dobbs with some trick plays. It was a very crazy change, and it almost worked. Almost.
But Florida's QB Will Grier kept the game alive over and over. If you watch Grier play you probably notice two very different things. One, he's got a great arm and at one point made an NFL-style back-shoulder sideline throw at the intermediate level. It's that kind of thing that gives you pause, and makes you think this kid might be something. But second, you notice that he's horrifically inaccurate deep, and at one point that cost him with an interception as he tried to stare down the fly route receiver and drop a touch pass in the bucket. The problem was the bucket happened to be a Tennessee defender.
So Grier looked very shaky early in the game, but so did both offenses. If not for trick plays, the score probably would have been 7-3 Florida, as nobody could convert a 3rd down. At the end of the half it was Tennessee with 1/6 on 3rd down conversions, and Florida with 1/7 on 3rd down. Honestly, it was terrible offensive football, but it was at least entertaining. If anything, Tennessee should probably kick themselves for not putting it away early while Grier was struggling hard, and the Florida running game had essentially one good play that led to a TD. The killer was that Dobbs had a 62 yard run to set themselves up in Florida territory late in the half, and then went 3-and-out from there, settling for a field goal. A touchdown at that point puts them up 21-7 at the break, and getting the ball in the second half first. I don't think Florida comes back from that.
But here's the thing, Florida has a lot of problems, and most of them are on the offensive line. The fact they did come back is almost entirely because Grier was unconscious on 4th downs. If you're not a basketball fan, that is a saying meaning he could make anything happen that he wanted to. In football, it just means you're knocked out, so I felt I should clarify. Anyway, take a look if you get the chance at Florida's O-line. It's pretty awful in pass-protection. Grier was running for his life much of the game, and at one point he was sacked because his right tackle got Ole'd by #9 Derek Barnett, who continues to be a force in the pass rush. Tennessee had 3 sacks in the game, while Florida had 3 as well. Both sides I thought looked like they had room to improve in pass protection big-time, but Florida's was more obvious as they continued to throw the ball late.
How often have I ever seen a team go 5/5 on 4th down conversions? I honestly can't remember other than this game. That was the real difference late. Three guys besides Grier really stepped up in the receiving core. That was #81 Antonio Callaway, and #83 Jake McGee, and #4 Brandon Powell. Down 27 to 14 in the 4th quarter, it was McGee who picked up the third of the 4th down conversions in the game. Then Powell got the 4th later in the drive, and then TD catch later to make it 27-21. But the heart-breaker conversion was all Callaway. He was the guy with less than 2 minutes left, 4th and 13, and the game on the line who made the middle of the field catch, beat two Tennessee defenders, and then streaked down the sideline for the 63-yard score to make it 28-27.
Was it anything special those players were doing? Not really, other than Grier kept escaping and finding guys who were open inside the Tennessee zone. I don't really blame the Tennessee coaches for going slightly conservative to keep the game in front of them except for that last 4th down. It's 4th and 13 and if you get to the QB the game is over. He's not running, you know it's a pass play, and you know he's struggled to stay upright with 3 sacks in the game. You don't play coverage there, you bring the house and force that really crappy O-line who has struggled all game to stop you. That's where you make your stand. Tennessee got a little cautious for those last few drives, including their very boring 3-runs-to-burn-clock offensive possession, and it cost them the game.
So now Florida is 4-0 and Tennessee is 2-2. Is Tennessee done? Absolutely not, I think they are a very tough team who is finding themselves in the running game, and trying to work around their struggles at the QB position with creative coaching. Also, the defense when turned loose is absolutely nasty. With nothing to lose, I think Tennessee will bring more blitzes and start playing like a wounded animal. That makes them extremely dangerous. Plus they are only one game down in an SEC East that is far from decided. Should Tennessee beat Georgia? Suddenly they are back in the race if Florida drops two games.
Is Florida as good as their record? Absolutely not. While Grier survived this game, he was doing it mainly with short, quick passes because his offensive line can't buy him time. The Florida running game with Fred Taylor's son Kelvin Taylor is basically average. They busted one play for 40+ yards, and for the rest of the game it was a slog with 60 yards on 17 carries. That's nothing to write home about. They have some talented tight ends, and Callaway absolutely is a force when he gets the ball in his hands, so in that regard you have to watch out for their passing game. But Grier was still a backup for a reason, and the reason is his accuracy and his stare-downs, similar to other SEC mediocre QBs this season. He's BEGGING at times to turn the ball over, and I think he will a good bit down the stretch.
All in all, I left with the impression that both these teams are still baking in the oven. Florida and Tennessee are both heading in the right directions, but they don't yet have the offensive solutions they need to back up their defensive stars.
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Thursday, September 24, 2015
SEC Picks: Week 4
Last week I went 2-2 on the picks, so I'm still 2 units down on the season so far. Stupid Kentucky really let me down late against Florida. That was 2 points from getting into the number. Oh well. On to this week where we're stepping it up a notch. We're finally getting into some 2 unit plays! I'll also offer a contrarian pick if you're a house-style bettor.
2 Unit Plays:
LSU v. Syracuse +23.5 : I like LSU -23.5 in the game. Syracuse has played nobody of consequence, so their points per game is highly inflated. Defensively, Syracuse also hasn't seen a thing like LSU yet. What the Tigers did to Auburn? That's a small taste of how ugly this can get. No trap here, LSU has Eastern Michigan as home next week, so all their focus can go on making a statement in New York.
Tennessee v. Florida -1.5 : I like TENNESSEE +1.5 in this game. Tennessee is getting points on the road against a Florida team that can't score points. Tennessee's defense is the best that Florida has seen this year, and Tennessee has already been battle tested against OU. What's more important? This is a career-defining game for Butch Jones and he knows it. I love desperate teams with everything on the line.
1 Unit Plays:
Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +25 : I like VANDERBILT +25 in this game. You've watched Ole Miss blast a few teams this year, and Vandy isn't that great, but they do a good job holding things close when a large spread is on the line. Ole Miss has Florida on the road next, and no matter how much they try, they'll already be looking past Vandy coming off their high against Alabama.
Kentucky v. Missouri +2.5 : I like KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. It's at home, Kentucky has played well so far this year, and Mizzou is now 0-3 ATS after being great on the road for several years prior. Missouri is struggling against bad teams, and barely edging out UCONN last week doesn't inspire confidence. I may be a prisoner of the moment here, but it's worth a unit.
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -7.5 : I like TEXAS A&M -7.5 in this game. Were it just 7 points, I'd probably put 2 units on this, but the hook worries me a little. Not enough to not play it, because A&M is miles better than anything Arkansas has played, and they lost to Toledo.
Contrarian Pick:
Auburn v. MS State +1.5 : I like AUBURN -1.5 in this game. If you're a contrarian bettor, this might be a good value play for you. The universe would bet against Auburn right now given what we saw in their prior 3 games. They are 0-3 ATS, they look like garbage, and you'd think they would be huge underdogs. But Vegas is Vegas, and this line looks way off. Plus we have a QB change. They know something is up, and when that happens you should bet with the house instead of the public.
Coinflip games:
Alabama v. Louisiana-Monre +37.5 : ALABAMA -37.5
South Carolina v. UCF +14.5 : SOUTH CAROLINA -14.5
Georgia is unlined this week against Southern, as it should be for that crap game.
2 Unit Plays:
LSU v. Syracuse +23.5 : I like LSU -23.5 in the game. Syracuse has played nobody of consequence, so their points per game is highly inflated. Defensively, Syracuse also hasn't seen a thing like LSU yet. What the Tigers did to Auburn? That's a small taste of how ugly this can get. No trap here, LSU has Eastern Michigan as home next week, so all their focus can go on making a statement in New York.
Tennessee v. Florida -1.5 : I like TENNESSEE +1.5 in this game. Tennessee is getting points on the road against a Florida team that can't score points. Tennessee's defense is the best that Florida has seen this year, and Tennessee has already been battle tested against OU. What's more important? This is a career-defining game for Butch Jones and he knows it. I love desperate teams with everything on the line.
1 Unit Plays:
Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +25 : I like VANDERBILT +25 in this game. You've watched Ole Miss blast a few teams this year, and Vandy isn't that great, but they do a good job holding things close when a large spread is on the line. Ole Miss has Florida on the road next, and no matter how much they try, they'll already be looking past Vandy coming off their high against Alabama.
Kentucky v. Missouri +2.5 : I like KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. It's at home, Kentucky has played well so far this year, and Mizzou is now 0-3 ATS after being great on the road for several years prior. Missouri is struggling against bad teams, and barely edging out UCONN last week doesn't inspire confidence. I may be a prisoner of the moment here, but it's worth a unit.
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -7.5 : I like TEXAS A&M -7.5 in this game. Were it just 7 points, I'd probably put 2 units on this, but the hook worries me a little. Not enough to not play it, because A&M is miles better than anything Arkansas has played, and they lost to Toledo.
Contrarian Pick:
Auburn v. MS State +1.5 : I like AUBURN -1.5 in this game. If you're a contrarian bettor, this might be a good value play for you. The universe would bet against Auburn right now given what we saw in their prior 3 games. They are 0-3 ATS, they look like garbage, and you'd think they would be huge underdogs. But Vegas is Vegas, and this line looks way off. Plus we have a QB change. They know something is up, and when that happens you should bet with the house instead of the public.
Coinflip games:
Alabama v. Louisiana-Monre +37.5 : ALABAMA -37.5
South Carolina v. UCF +14.5 : SOUTH CAROLINA -14.5
Georgia is unlined this week against Southern, as it should be for that crap game.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Ole Miss Rebels v. Alabama Crimson Tide: Week 3 Analysis
I watched this game mostly live on Saturday night until 1:30AM, then I loaded it back up again today after 4 days of break in between because I didn't want my live impressions to overwhelm my second go-through on the tape. Several things arise out of the tape that totally countered my first impression of the game.
My first impression was that Ole Miss looked extremely potent passing the ball, and that Alabama shot itself in the foot over and over with turnovers. And that's the impression that I heard most people give me when they recapped the game. Most Alabama fans believed they would have won except for the stupid turnovers, and possibly starting one QB instead of two QBs, but that was about it. Most Ole Miss fans I talked to were extremely impressed with the offense, but were wary of how they kept giving Alabama chance after chance when they didn't have to.
Is Alabama in as bad of a situation as the media would make it out to be? Absolutely not. You'd be a fool to look at this tape and walk away thinking that Alabama still can't compete for an SEC Title right now. However, they have certain deficiencies that I warned about in their game against Wisconsin, and Ole Miss was exactly the type of team to pounce on those problems. Mainly, I'm talking about the linebacker and secondary play for Alabama, which isn't up to their usual high-caliber. More on that later.
Let's address the obvious first, the two fumbles on kickoffs absolutely put Alabama on the wrong foot. But even without those, it was the decision by the Alabama coaching staff to inexplicably start #18 Cooper Bateman instead of Jake Coker. I still have no idea what they were thinking. The offense went nowhere under Bateman for the first quarter and a half of the game. They had only 3 points, and finally Bateman was yanked for Coker after he threw a pick tied 3-3 with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. Again, let me point out that even with the first fumble, and the pick there, it was still just 3-3. But Ole Miss went for the jugular on 4th and goal on that next drive, and scored the first TD of the game. That's when the second fumble on the kickoff really killed Alabama's momentum. Ole Miss would score again on QB Chad Kelly's scramble to make it 17-3 Ole Miss.
That's when Coker came into the game. He led the team down the field in their next drive to make it 17-10 Ole Miss at the half. I honestly forgot it was that close, but it was only a 7 point game. So with the game on the line, and Ole Miss getting the ball. What happened? One of the freakiest plays you'll see in college football. The snap goes over Chad Kelly's head, he tips it in the air, picks it off the ground, and heaves it down the field right as he's hit. The ball goes off an Alabama player's head, bounces in the air to an Ole Miss receiver, who then tears down the field for a TD. It was absurd. Once I saw that play, Hell ANYBODY who saw that play, immediately thought the same thing: This is Ole Miss's day.
The Alabama offense stalled again and again, allowing Ole Miss two more FGs, making it 30-17, but Alabama rallied back with a TD drive of their own to make it 30-24. Again, Alabama is well within striking distance, but that's where another defensive breakdown happened. On a scramble to the right, #26 freshman DB Marlon Humphrey pulled off his coverage on Cody Core to try and get the QB, and Chad Kelly threw over the top of him for a 76 yard wide open TD run. Nobody could stop Core once he caught the ball because Humphrey was supposed to be the last line of defense on that play. It was a bad read and one that really cost the Tide. It's also not the first time I've pointed out Humphrey because he's young and looks unsteady out there. He's a 5-star recruit who had really high hopes dumped on him early, but he's getting exposed in the backfield quite often from what I'm seeing. I counted a few whiffed tackles to go along with getting beat on that key play.
This points out a bigger problem with the Alabama DBs, they are young and in the case of their best cover guy #5 Cyrus Jones, he's short at only 5'10". They put Jones on 6'3" WR #1 Laquon Treadwell, who abused him on several plays for 5 catches, 80 yards, and 1 TD. And that was probably a good job on a guy like Treadwell, but it's still not good enough for an Alabama defense that gave up over 40 points in the game. Interestingly, if you look at the tackles by position on the team, the number one tackler is LB Reggie Ragland. That makes sense as he's probably the most talented player outside of the Alabama front four, and he's projected right now as a 2nd round draft pick. However, if you look at the top 3 tacklers behind him? It's all DBs. Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, and Geno Matias-Smith. 35.5 tackles between all of them, but only 1.5 for losses. You know why DBs are making so many tackles? Because teams realize they can't run on you, and they are going to pick on your secondary. Let alone how many bad angles and missed tackles I saw in this game that I normally never see out of a Nick Saban defense.
Coker made two mistakes late, both bad interceptions with the game on the line. The first was a terrible throw, the second was because his center screwed up a key block and got Coker crushed as he unleashed a deep ball. But even so, Coker doesn't need to be throwing deep balls. In fact, Alabama getting as close as they were shouldn't have been throwing at all. They looked panicked in their play calling, and it showed in the stat lines. They threw 59 times and only ran 42 times. Yes, they were behind, but they weren't THAT far behind to force their QBs to fling it down the field. It's another time where I look at Lane Kiffin and wonder why he gets so aggressive at times when he's got a guy like RB Derrick Henry averaging 5.5 yards a carry in the game. It makes no sense to risk it down the field like they were. Alabama's strength is that they are bigger and better than you up front, not that they are speedy in the backfield and on the edges. The play calling should reflect that.
But that's putting it all on Alabama, Ole Miss won the game because they did what they do best. They realized they were going to have more success throwing the ball, so they put the game in Chad Kelly's hands. I was dead wrong about thinking there would be a falloff from Bo Wallace to this kid Kelly, he's likely the best QB in the SEC right now without question. He makes solid reads, he knows how to scramble with his eyes down the field, and he has a great deep ball arm. In fact, he's 6th in passer rating in the nation, just ahead of teams like TCU and Oklahoma State. That's pretty phenomal for an SEC squad.
Oh and then there's this guy on defense for Ole Miss. You might have heard of him. His name is Robert Nkemdiche. He's the best defensive player in the SEC right now from what I've seen. He almost single-handedly ruined Alabama's game several times. The first was when it was 2nd and goal early in the game, and Alabama was down 0-3 on the 2 yard line. Alabama ran a jet sweep handoff to the strong side, and Nkemdiche swim moves past the RG in the interior, beats the Center as he's trying to hold him up, and chases down the runner for a 9-yard loss. It was insane. He forced Alabama so far out of position that they had to kick a FG instead of taking the lead. And I think if that play doesn't happen and Alabama DOES get the lead? The complexion of the game changes completely.
But Nkemdiche has all the moves. He was using stunts to beat the center, running through little chip blocks like there were nothing, and doing swim moves past an offensive line that looked incredibly solid against a Wisconsin team. He's NFL ready right now. If he's not in the top 5 in the NFL draft, I'll be absolutely floored. He's a man playing with children.
What I really loved about Ole Miss's play was how aggressively consistent they were while leading on the road. I love to see that out of any team that has a lead. They didn't get conservative and start running the ball to burn clock. That's not what they did to get them the lead in the first place, and that would have lost them the game. Instead, up 36-24 off the Coker interception, they kept their foot on the gas and went down the field to Treadwell for the back-breaker TD. If you're an Ole Miss fan, or just a football fan who hates the prevent and hates conservative protect-your-ass playcalling? That was a thing of absolute beauty.
Make no mistake, Ole Miss won this game. Alabama didn't hand it to them. If you believe Alabama lost it rather than Ole Miss taking it, you're probably an Alabama fan because they are the only people on earth who would try to rationalize that kind of nonsense. Teams don't put up 43 points on an Alabama defense because they got lucky. Ole Miss looked at the film of Wisconsin-Bama game, identified who to pick on and how, capitalized on turnovers, and executed their offensive gameplan to perfection. The only qualm I have with Ole Miss is that their defense started to wear down the in the second half, and their ball-hawking style can lead to them getting beat underneath at times with dink and dunk plays.
I honestly can't wait to see how Ole Miss fares against Texas A&M and LSU whose defenses are much faster and more terrifying in the secondary, but softer in the middle and on the lines. Can Ole Miss switch to a more powerful running attack to adapt for the speed? Also, can Alabama quickly train up their DBs and their LBs in time for a quick-hitter running attack in UGA, along with one of the better short-to-intermediate passers after the UGA game against South Carolina?
Only time will tell.
My first impression was that Ole Miss looked extremely potent passing the ball, and that Alabama shot itself in the foot over and over with turnovers. And that's the impression that I heard most people give me when they recapped the game. Most Alabama fans believed they would have won except for the stupid turnovers, and possibly starting one QB instead of two QBs, but that was about it. Most Ole Miss fans I talked to were extremely impressed with the offense, but were wary of how they kept giving Alabama chance after chance when they didn't have to.
Is Alabama in as bad of a situation as the media would make it out to be? Absolutely not. You'd be a fool to look at this tape and walk away thinking that Alabama still can't compete for an SEC Title right now. However, they have certain deficiencies that I warned about in their game against Wisconsin, and Ole Miss was exactly the type of team to pounce on those problems. Mainly, I'm talking about the linebacker and secondary play for Alabama, which isn't up to their usual high-caliber. More on that later.
Let's address the obvious first, the two fumbles on kickoffs absolutely put Alabama on the wrong foot. But even without those, it was the decision by the Alabama coaching staff to inexplicably start #18 Cooper Bateman instead of Jake Coker. I still have no idea what they were thinking. The offense went nowhere under Bateman for the first quarter and a half of the game. They had only 3 points, and finally Bateman was yanked for Coker after he threw a pick tied 3-3 with 10 minutes left in the second quarter. Again, let me point out that even with the first fumble, and the pick there, it was still just 3-3. But Ole Miss went for the jugular on 4th and goal on that next drive, and scored the first TD of the game. That's when the second fumble on the kickoff really killed Alabama's momentum. Ole Miss would score again on QB Chad Kelly's scramble to make it 17-3 Ole Miss.
That's when Coker came into the game. He led the team down the field in their next drive to make it 17-10 Ole Miss at the half. I honestly forgot it was that close, but it was only a 7 point game. So with the game on the line, and Ole Miss getting the ball. What happened? One of the freakiest plays you'll see in college football. The snap goes over Chad Kelly's head, he tips it in the air, picks it off the ground, and heaves it down the field right as he's hit. The ball goes off an Alabama player's head, bounces in the air to an Ole Miss receiver, who then tears down the field for a TD. It was absurd. Once I saw that play, Hell ANYBODY who saw that play, immediately thought the same thing: This is Ole Miss's day.
The Alabama offense stalled again and again, allowing Ole Miss two more FGs, making it 30-17, but Alabama rallied back with a TD drive of their own to make it 30-24. Again, Alabama is well within striking distance, but that's where another defensive breakdown happened. On a scramble to the right, #26 freshman DB Marlon Humphrey pulled off his coverage on Cody Core to try and get the QB, and Chad Kelly threw over the top of him for a 76 yard wide open TD run. Nobody could stop Core once he caught the ball because Humphrey was supposed to be the last line of defense on that play. It was a bad read and one that really cost the Tide. It's also not the first time I've pointed out Humphrey because he's young and looks unsteady out there. He's a 5-star recruit who had really high hopes dumped on him early, but he's getting exposed in the backfield quite often from what I'm seeing. I counted a few whiffed tackles to go along with getting beat on that key play.
This points out a bigger problem with the Alabama DBs, they are young and in the case of their best cover guy #5 Cyrus Jones, he's short at only 5'10". They put Jones on 6'3" WR #1 Laquon Treadwell, who abused him on several plays for 5 catches, 80 yards, and 1 TD. And that was probably a good job on a guy like Treadwell, but it's still not good enough for an Alabama defense that gave up over 40 points in the game. Interestingly, if you look at the tackles by position on the team, the number one tackler is LB Reggie Ragland. That makes sense as he's probably the most talented player outside of the Alabama front four, and he's projected right now as a 2nd round draft pick. However, if you look at the top 3 tacklers behind him? It's all DBs. Eddie Jackson, Marlon Humphrey, and Geno Matias-Smith. 35.5 tackles between all of them, but only 1.5 for losses. You know why DBs are making so many tackles? Because teams realize they can't run on you, and they are going to pick on your secondary. Let alone how many bad angles and missed tackles I saw in this game that I normally never see out of a Nick Saban defense.
Coker made two mistakes late, both bad interceptions with the game on the line. The first was a terrible throw, the second was because his center screwed up a key block and got Coker crushed as he unleashed a deep ball. But even so, Coker doesn't need to be throwing deep balls. In fact, Alabama getting as close as they were shouldn't have been throwing at all. They looked panicked in their play calling, and it showed in the stat lines. They threw 59 times and only ran 42 times. Yes, they were behind, but they weren't THAT far behind to force their QBs to fling it down the field. It's another time where I look at Lane Kiffin and wonder why he gets so aggressive at times when he's got a guy like RB Derrick Henry averaging 5.5 yards a carry in the game. It makes no sense to risk it down the field like they were. Alabama's strength is that they are bigger and better than you up front, not that they are speedy in the backfield and on the edges. The play calling should reflect that.
But that's putting it all on Alabama, Ole Miss won the game because they did what they do best. They realized they were going to have more success throwing the ball, so they put the game in Chad Kelly's hands. I was dead wrong about thinking there would be a falloff from Bo Wallace to this kid Kelly, he's likely the best QB in the SEC right now without question. He makes solid reads, he knows how to scramble with his eyes down the field, and he has a great deep ball arm. In fact, he's 6th in passer rating in the nation, just ahead of teams like TCU and Oklahoma State. That's pretty phenomal for an SEC squad.
Oh and then there's this guy on defense for Ole Miss. You might have heard of him. His name is Robert Nkemdiche. He's the best defensive player in the SEC right now from what I've seen. He almost single-handedly ruined Alabama's game several times. The first was when it was 2nd and goal early in the game, and Alabama was down 0-3 on the 2 yard line. Alabama ran a jet sweep handoff to the strong side, and Nkemdiche swim moves past the RG in the interior, beats the Center as he's trying to hold him up, and chases down the runner for a 9-yard loss. It was insane. He forced Alabama so far out of position that they had to kick a FG instead of taking the lead. And I think if that play doesn't happen and Alabama DOES get the lead? The complexion of the game changes completely.
But Nkemdiche has all the moves. He was using stunts to beat the center, running through little chip blocks like there were nothing, and doing swim moves past an offensive line that looked incredibly solid against a Wisconsin team. He's NFL ready right now. If he's not in the top 5 in the NFL draft, I'll be absolutely floored. He's a man playing with children.
What I really loved about Ole Miss's play was how aggressively consistent they were while leading on the road. I love to see that out of any team that has a lead. They didn't get conservative and start running the ball to burn clock. That's not what they did to get them the lead in the first place, and that would have lost them the game. Instead, up 36-24 off the Coker interception, they kept their foot on the gas and went down the field to Treadwell for the back-breaker TD. If you're an Ole Miss fan, or just a football fan who hates the prevent and hates conservative protect-your-ass playcalling? That was a thing of absolute beauty.
Make no mistake, Ole Miss won this game. Alabama didn't hand it to them. If you believe Alabama lost it rather than Ole Miss taking it, you're probably an Alabama fan because they are the only people on earth who would try to rationalize that kind of nonsense. Teams don't put up 43 points on an Alabama defense because they got lucky. Ole Miss looked at the film of Wisconsin-Bama game, identified who to pick on and how, capitalized on turnovers, and executed their offensive gameplan to perfection. The only qualm I have with Ole Miss is that their defense started to wear down the in the second half, and their ball-hawking style can lead to them getting beat underneath at times with dink and dunk plays.
I honestly can't wait to see how Ole Miss fares against Texas A&M and LSU whose defenses are much faster and more terrifying in the secondary, but softer in the middle and on the lines. Can Ole Miss switch to a more powerful running attack to adapt for the speed? Also, can Alabama quickly train up their DBs and their LBs in time for a quick-hitter running attack in UGA, along with one of the better short-to-intermediate passers after the UGA game against South Carolina?
Only time will tell.
Monday, September 21, 2015
Auburn Tigers v. LSU Tigers: Week 3 Analysis
The Tigers on Tigers battle down on the bayou was anything but a battle. It was a good-ole-fashioned slaughter in favor of LSU, and that was mostly because of the dominating running game led by #7 Leonard Fournette. If you haven't seen the highlight of Fournette running through guys while he sheds tacklers like a snakeskin, go ahead and check the internet. I'm sure you'll see it, as it's everywhere.
Fournette will get all the talk, all the Heisman projections, all the discussion about why he's still being forced to play at the college level when he's obviously ready for the pros right now. Because that's what we do in college football. We blow up good performances and make them into world-beating projections for all time. And why wouldn't you in this case? Fournette is a 6-1, 230 pound wrecking ball who can ramp up to ramming speed like he's about to blow open the door on a police raid. But also remember, he's done this before against teams that can't protect against the run, and Auburn sure as hell can't guard the run at all.
Besides Fournette going off, the thing that jumped out to me about LSU's offense was how great their blockers were in the run game. My favorite guy on the team now has to be their stout fullback #44 John David Moore. For starters, Moore is a walk-on. He's also an architectural major. There's no reason he should be as good as he is springing open holes for Fournette, but he looked amazing against Auburn. Whenever there was a big run, you could be sure that it was Moore leading the way and laying the key block that opened up whatever daylight Fournette needed. 228 yards with of daylight for that young man.
The one takeaway I have from watching Auburn defend the run was that it's even more horrifying than it seemed from the box scores. Why? Because Auburn was putting 8 guys in the box and at times 6 guys on the line before the snap. Not even in blitzes, they were actually lining up that way and showing full line stacking before LSU even tried to run. AND LSU STILL DUMPTRUCKED THEM. Part of that is LSU being great, have no doubt. The other part is that from a pure hat-on-a-hat game in the trenches? Auburn is flat wretched. And what's worse, they looked like they gave up. At one point even Gary Danielson called out a safety on one of Fournette's TD runs. You could actually see #23 for Johnathon Ford for Auburn quit on a run as he slowed up and half-assed waved his hand at Fournette as he went by, bowling over one of Ford's teammates. That kind of thing shows exactly what kind of team Auburn has. They are a me-first bunch soft bunch of slackers. And in the SEC that will get you killed.
Once again, if you were forced to watch this blowout, and by my guess most people checked out when it got to be 24-0 at the half, you saw another great example of how far QB play has fallen in the SEC. You will hear me harp on this a good bit this season, and there's a reason. This crop of QB's mostly sucks. They can't make changes at the line, they don't read defenses at the snap, and they don't know how to check off safeties with their eyes. It's a stare-down league, and the two QB's playing in this LSU-Auburn match were no different.
While the running games went off, the passing games were cringe-worthy. Let's start with the winning QB Brandon Harris. He went 12-17 with 1 TD and 74 yards. Most of you would say he didn't have to throw with the way the running game was going. That's true, but when he did it was very little down the field. Much of it was sweeping touch-pass plays where he only had to complete a pass that was essentially a forward hand off. Against MS State, Harris only had 71 yards on 14 attempts. As we get deeper into the season, and they play better teams, LSU is going to have a problem. I would say against Texas A&M they will likely have a BIG problem, because you can't run forever. At some point you have to catch up, and I'm not sure Harris has the skills to do that. However, he can run and make defenses pay if they leave somebody ridiculously wide open.
But if Harris is questionable, Jeremy Johnson was downright abominable. I heard how great Johnson was going to be by pundits everywhere. Here's a bunch of those articles that look absolutely absurd right now.
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2015/4/24/8488493/jeremy-johnson-heisman-candidate-auburn-tigers-football
http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2015/07/jeremy_johnsons_heisman_trophy.html
http://flywareagle.com/2014/12/16/auburn-football-quarterback-jeremy-johnson-2015-heisman-trophy-candidate/
Yeah, I've written articles before where I said something dumb, including picks on this very blog. But what I've never done is tell you a guy in the preseason will win the Heisman, because that's NEVER the way it goes. And it's not going that way for Johnson right now. Allow me to paint the picture of how bad it got.
Johnson's first mistake was actually throwing the ball backwards. Yep. As in the ball completely slipping out of his hand and flying backwards. Remember when Jameis Winston tossed a ball backwards in the playoff game against Oregon? It was like that, except nobody was chasing Johnson, which makes it even dumber. But it got worse! Next, he threw into double coverage down the field after staring at his receiver, and got picked off. Then, he should have gotten picked off again for the same thing in the second quarter, but the DB dropped the ball. Finally, he was sacked and fumbled and LSU recovered inside Auburn's own 10 yard line. Johnson went 11-19 for 100 yards passing, 2 passing TDs, and 2 turnovers. But the numbers don't tell the story and most of that was in garbage time. If not for the long running TD Johnson had, it would have been a complete disaster.
Which leads me to talk about Auburn's offense. They are completely built around getting to the edge with jet sweeps and pitch plays, they can't really throw the ball down the field, and the QB running game comes into play when the defense abandons the middle to guard the edge. If a team is solid on the edge with the DBs, and the linebackers don't overpursue? Auburn's dead in the water. That's it, that's all they have. An offense that was once so potent is frankly simple to completely shut down, and that's a shame if you're an Auburn fan. For the rest of the league, it's easy pickings.
It's not all sunshine and farts for LSU either, despite the score. Even though Fournette running over people gave me chills, I've seen this before. He did it against every bad team he played last year, before struggling hard against the 4 teams in the SEC with a solid defense. Auburn USED to be one of those, but now the hardest defenses LSU will face against the run are Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, and possibly A&M or Ole Miss. And two of those teams are currently inept on offense. I want to see how Fournette and the lack of passing attack fare against a better defense, but we'll have to wait until the second half of the season since LSU has 3 easy mow-down teams before they get to Florida in mid-October.
Overall, if you're playing either team, defensively you shouldn't put any of your defensive backs outside the 10 yard box until they can prove there's a threat down the field. Also, offensively I'd stay outside of the middle against LSU early, instead opting for a solid screen and tight end passing game, then switch to up the middle runs later as the defense lineman get tired of running around chasing their tails. If you're facing Auburn offensively, just line and hit them in the mouth. They'll give up eventually.
Fournette will get all the talk, all the Heisman projections, all the discussion about why he's still being forced to play at the college level when he's obviously ready for the pros right now. Because that's what we do in college football. We blow up good performances and make them into world-beating projections for all time. And why wouldn't you in this case? Fournette is a 6-1, 230 pound wrecking ball who can ramp up to ramming speed like he's about to blow open the door on a police raid. But also remember, he's done this before against teams that can't protect against the run, and Auburn sure as hell can't guard the run at all.
Besides Fournette going off, the thing that jumped out to me about LSU's offense was how great their blockers were in the run game. My favorite guy on the team now has to be their stout fullback #44 John David Moore. For starters, Moore is a walk-on. He's also an architectural major. There's no reason he should be as good as he is springing open holes for Fournette, but he looked amazing against Auburn. Whenever there was a big run, you could be sure that it was Moore leading the way and laying the key block that opened up whatever daylight Fournette needed. 228 yards with of daylight for that young man.
The one takeaway I have from watching Auburn defend the run was that it's even more horrifying than it seemed from the box scores. Why? Because Auburn was putting 8 guys in the box and at times 6 guys on the line before the snap. Not even in blitzes, they were actually lining up that way and showing full line stacking before LSU even tried to run. AND LSU STILL DUMPTRUCKED THEM. Part of that is LSU being great, have no doubt. The other part is that from a pure hat-on-a-hat game in the trenches? Auburn is flat wretched. And what's worse, they looked like they gave up. At one point even Gary Danielson called out a safety on one of Fournette's TD runs. You could actually see #23 for Johnathon Ford for Auburn quit on a run as he slowed up and half-assed waved his hand at Fournette as he went by, bowling over one of Ford's teammates. That kind of thing shows exactly what kind of team Auburn has. They are a me-first bunch soft bunch of slackers. And in the SEC that will get you killed.
Once again, if you were forced to watch this blowout, and by my guess most people checked out when it got to be 24-0 at the half, you saw another great example of how far QB play has fallen in the SEC. You will hear me harp on this a good bit this season, and there's a reason. This crop of QB's mostly sucks. They can't make changes at the line, they don't read defenses at the snap, and they don't know how to check off safeties with their eyes. It's a stare-down league, and the two QB's playing in this LSU-Auburn match were no different.
While the running games went off, the passing games were cringe-worthy. Let's start with the winning QB Brandon Harris. He went 12-17 with 1 TD and 74 yards. Most of you would say he didn't have to throw with the way the running game was going. That's true, but when he did it was very little down the field. Much of it was sweeping touch-pass plays where he only had to complete a pass that was essentially a forward hand off. Against MS State, Harris only had 71 yards on 14 attempts. As we get deeper into the season, and they play better teams, LSU is going to have a problem. I would say against Texas A&M they will likely have a BIG problem, because you can't run forever. At some point you have to catch up, and I'm not sure Harris has the skills to do that. However, he can run and make defenses pay if they leave somebody ridiculously wide open.
But if Harris is questionable, Jeremy Johnson was downright abominable. I heard how great Johnson was going to be by pundits everywhere. Here's a bunch of those articles that look absolutely absurd right now.
http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2015/4/24/8488493/jeremy-johnson-heisman-candidate-auburn-tigers-football
http://www.al.com/auburnfootball/index.ssf/2015/07/jeremy_johnsons_heisman_trophy.html
http://flywareagle.com/2014/12/16/auburn-football-quarterback-jeremy-johnson-2015-heisman-trophy-candidate/
Yeah, I've written articles before where I said something dumb, including picks on this very blog. But what I've never done is tell you a guy in the preseason will win the Heisman, because that's NEVER the way it goes. And it's not going that way for Johnson right now. Allow me to paint the picture of how bad it got.
Johnson's first mistake was actually throwing the ball backwards. Yep. As in the ball completely slipping out of his hand and flying backwards. Remember when Jameis Winston tossed a ball backwards in the playoff game against Oregon? It was like that, except nobody was chasing Johnson, which makes it even dumber. But it got worse! Next, he threw into double coverage down the field after staring at his receiver, and got picked off. Then, he should have gotten picked off again for the same thing in the second quarter, but the DB dropped the ball. Finally, he was sacked and fumbled and LSU recovered inside Auburn's own 10 yard line. Johnson went 11-19 for 100 yards passing, 2 passing TDs, and 2 turnovers. But the numbers don't tell the story and most of that was in garbage time. If not for the long running TD Johnson had, it would have been a complete disaster.
Which leads me to talk about Auburn's offense. They are completely built around getting to the edge with jet sweeps and pitch plays, they can't really throw the ball down the field, and the QB running game comes into play when the defense abandons the middle to guard the edge. If a team is solid on the edge with the DBs, and the linebackers don't overpursue? Auburn's dead in the water. That's it, that's all they have. An offense that was once so potent is frankly simple to completely shut down, and that's a shame if you're an Auburn fan. For the rest of the league, it's easy pickings.
It's not all sunshine and farts for LSU either, despite the score. Even though Fournette running over people gave me chills, I've seen this before. He did it against every bad team he played last year, before struggling hard against the 4 teams in the SEC with a solid defense. Auburn USED to be one of those, but now the hardest defenses LSU will face against the run are Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, and possibly A&M or Ole Miss. And two of those teams are currently inept on offense. I want to see how Fournette and the lack of passing attack fare against a better defense, but we'll have to wait until the second half of the season since LSU has 3 easy mow-down teams before they get to Florida in mid-October.
Overall, if you're playing either team, defensively you shouldn't put any of your defensive backs outside the 10 yard box until they can prove there's a threat down the field. Also, offensively I'd stay outside of the middle against LSU early, instead opting for a solid screen and tight end passing game, then switch to up the middle runs later as the defense lineman get tired of running around chasing their tails. If you're facing Auburn offensively, just line and hit them in the mouth. They'll give up eventually.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
SEC Picks Week 3!
So last week went 1-2, which is another lost unit. So we're 2 units down, but don't fear, we're getting more information and soon we're going to really be in conference play where we can start making some bigger unit moves. Let's see what we got.
1 unit plays:
Georgia v. South Carolina +16: I like GEORGIA -16 in this game. Normally, you'd say entirely too many points. In fact the public is mostly betting on SC because of that factor. But the problem is that SC is playing a backup QB, they only have one real weapon in the WR arsenal, and their run defense was gashed by Kentucky. Georgia's running back is even better, and the Georgia defense has been better in all facets. It's worth a one unit play.
Kentucky v. Florida -3.5: I like KENTUCKY +3.5 in this game. The spread is favorable in my mind since this could be a one-score game. Florida is struggling to make things happen against easy teams, and Kentucky just shut down a SC team that's likely about on par with East Carolina. I'm using transitive properties a bit here, but I think Kentucky's QB situation is way better than Florida, as is their running game. Kentucky can score enough to keep it really interesting if not win it outright and shock Florida in the process.
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -12: I like ARKANSAS -12 in this game. The world is going to bet against Arkansas after what happened. I'm going full contrarian pick here and taking the Hogs with less than 2 TDs to try and fade out the public. An SEC team usually bounces back after that kind of embarrassment.
Nevada v. Texas A&M -35: I like NEVADA +35 in this game. Texas A&M has a ridiculous defense. Nevada may not score more than 14 points this entire game. However, Vegas has set the bar really high on this number, and A&M who is already 2-0 ATS is due for a pull-back at some point. I'm betting it's now. It's a bit contrarian as well, but now is the time to do it on small plays.
Coin flip picks:
Connecticut v. Missouri -21.5: MISSOURI -21.5
Auburn v. LSU -7: AUBURN +7 (Rebound factor)
Ole Miss v. Alabama -7: OLE MISS +7 (if Ole Miss's offense is real, this is a shootout)
Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Vandy are all playing cupcakes that aren't lined. So they are out this week.
GOOD LUCK!
1 unit plays:
Georgia v. South Carolina +16: I like GEORGIA -16 in this game. Normally, you'd say entirely too many points. In fact the public is mostly betting on SC because of that factor. But the problem is that SC is playing a backup QB, they only have one real weapon in the WR arsenal, and their run defense was gashed by Kentucky. Georgia's running back is even better, and the Georgia defense has been better in all facets. It's worth a one unit play.
Kentucky v. Florida -3.5: I like KENTUCKY +3.5 in this game. The spread is favorable in my mind since this could be a one-score game. Florida is struggling to make things happen against easy teams, and Kentucky just shut down a SC team that's likely about on par with East Carolina. I'm using transitive properties a bit here, but I think Kentucky's QB situation is way better than Florida, as is their running game. Kentucky can score enough to keep it really interesting if not win it outright and shock Florida in the process.
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -12: I like ARKANSAS -12 in this game. The world is going to bet against Arkansas after what happened. I'm going full contrarian pick here and taking the Hogs with less than 2 TDs to try and fade out the public. An SEC team usually bounces back after that kind of embarrassment.
Nevada v. Texas A&M -35: I like NEVADA +35 in this game. Texas A&M has a ridiculous defense. Nevada may not score more than 14 points this entire game. However, Vegas has set the bar really high on this number, and A&M who is already 2-0 ATS is due for a pull-back at some point. I'm betting it's now. It's a bit contrarian as well, but now is the time to do it on small plays.
Coin flip picks:
Connecticut v. Missouri -21.5: MISSOURI -21.5
Auburn v. LSU -7: AUBURN +7 (Rebound factor)
Ole Miss v. Alabama -7: OLE MISS +7 (if Ole Miss's offense is real, this is a shootout)
Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Vandy are all playing cupcakes that aren't lined. So they are out this week.
GOOD LUCK!
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Tennessee Volunteers v. Oklahoma Sooners: Week 2 Analysis
So let's start off with some obvious things I noticed about this game. First, the offense absolutely lost the game for Tennessee. Many people who are huge Tennessee fans have explained to me how much they love Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurd. And while I think Hurd has the potential to be a very dynamic player, I am not sold on Josh Dobbs and never have been (fair warning on my bias, but I think you can see why when I explain the detail). I wanted to see more from Dobbs than the small flashes we got late in last year.
Tennessee scored 17 points within the first 20 minutes of the game. They looked pretty solid doing it, capitalizing on OU's many mistakes, great field position, and the overwhelming crowd noise. They were up 17-0 with 12:14 left in the second quarter. The defense for Tennessee was oppressive, holding OU to just 3 points for almost 50 minutes of the game. In fact, the defense didn't even allow OU to snap the ball on the other half of the field until the 4th quarter. And how were they rewarded by their offensive staff in the second half? Here's how:
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, Missed FG
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 44, 3 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 41, 8 plays, PUNT
Started on the OU 29 after an INT, 3 plays, PUNT (they went backwards 11 yards)
Started on the TENN 20, 3 plays, PUNT
Tennessee had 6 drives with an average starting field position of the TENN 39, and scored nothing. One FG in almost 40 minutes of playtime would have won the game. ANYTHING would have won the game. They got nothing at all. And it's because Josh Dobbs couldn't complete passes to save his life late, and the running game bogged down to a crawl. How bad was it? Dobbs was 13/31 (41.9%) for 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Even with Jalen Hurd going for 100+ on the ground and a TD in OT, that's still not enough. Not nearly enough.
Here's the good news about the game: The Tennessee defense for most of the game was a wrecking ball in the middle, allowing no access to runs for OU for a great majority of the time, and they were putting constant pressure on the OU QB Baker Mayfield. It looked like Mayfield was running for his life most of the game, but the odd part was that they rarely sacked him. In fact, that would become a major problem late in the game as most of the key plays came for OU when the pocket broke down, Mayfield eluded tackles, and somehow would complete a pass downfield. If the defense could have just put him on the ground, they probably win the game too.
The other good news is that for the first half the offensive line looked pretty solid. A standout for me is #71 Dylan Wiesman, whom I would keep an eye on if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator. If a big running play was getting sprung in the middle, I can almost guarantee it was 71 throwing the block. He looked great out there, and I think he's got the potential to really lay a hurt on some opposing linemen in the running game over the season.
OU in the first half was shooting itself in the foot over and over again. You could sort of see this coming late in the game as the time kept going and Tennessee kept punting. Most of the problems for OU were big plays getting negated by penalties, or interceptions going off receivers hands, or losing reviews on catches that were initially ruled complete. That tide turned in the second half. That's why if you're a Tennessee fan and you want to complain about any calls in this game, especially late, let me explain something to you right now. The officials had nothing to do with you losing. OU was getting buried by their own penalties in the first half, and they even had a TD taken off the board late in the second half. The refs called this one pretty even. Not well, but even.
Here's the bad news: Curt Maggitt, the best pass-rusher on the team and the vocal leader is gone with an injury for we don't know how long. He left mid-way through the game, and it was obvious that OU shifted their focus to the other UT DE Derek Barnett, making his life much tougher. But Barnett was still a terror out there, and man he looks like a force long term for the Vols. More bad news is that OU figured out late they could pick on DB #12 Emmanuel Moseley, a sophomore who looks a little unsure out there. He was the guy who got beat on the tying TD in the corner to take the game to OT. And I don't blame OU for picking on him, I'd take notes if I'm the opposing coach and go after him instead of Cam Sutton who's a much better Tennessee DB on the other side.
But really for me it comes down to how the offense looked out of sync in the second half, and how Josh Dobbs keeps staring down receivers. If you watch him over and over, here's the basic tendencies. Josh will make his first read, and if it's there he'll take it. That's fine, and if that's working the Tennessee offense is in great shape. However, if he has to go to a second read? All hell breaks loose for a few reasons. One, he's taking too long to switch targets and he's running out of time in the pocket. Two, his O-Line isn't good enough in pass protection to give him the time to make long reads. Three, he has to take off when he gets in trouble, and he's not doing a great job of getting reset and keeping eyes down the field. And four, even on the first read if it's not exactly what he wants, he's taking too long to pull the trigger.
I believe he's thinking too much out there, and that last interception was a good example of what I'm talking about. I would prefer any Tennessee fan if they can stomach watching it over again to pull the tape. Watch Dobbs drop back looking middle, then looks right as he sets for what seems like 2-3 seconds before he unloads to his first read. That 2-3 seconds of looking at a receiver is an eternity in college pass protection. OU just finally picked up on it and jumped the route. But it wasn't the first time. Early in the first quarter, Dobbs had to passes literally go through the hands of OU defenders. It's something he's going to have to work on or his INT totals are going to go way up down the field.
It's one game for the Volunteers, that's the best news. The other good news is that the defense overall looks stellar. If the offense can even remotely get on the defense's level, they'll win football games. But they have to start honestly looking at their deficiencies and correcting the fundamental errors on the line and at the QB spot. Otherwise, teams will just stack the box and force Dobbs to start making passes. And with enough film, they are going to pick up on his tendencies. Alabama's defense is watching this tape over and over again right now on how to shut Tennessee down flat.
Long haul? I expect Butch Jones to adapt quickly. Hurd is going to get the ball more. I expect shorter passes to get Dobbs in a rhythm when things look off. I expect they will work out a lot of these kinks against their next cupcake, and they will look a ton better by the time they get down to Florida. And they may get back on a roll if they dust themselves off. After all, this wasn't a conference game. The SEC East is still there for the taking, if they can score enough to take it.
Tennessee scored 17 points within the first 20 minutes of the game. They looked pretty solid doing it, capitalizing on OU's many mistakes, great field position, and the overwhelming crowd noise. They were up 17-0 with 12:14 left in the second quarter. The defense for Tennessee was oppressive, holding OU to just 3 points for almost 50 minutes of the game. In fact, the defense didn't even allow OU to snap the ball on the other half of the field until the 4th quarter. And how were they rewarded by their offensive staff in the second half? Here's how:
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, Missed FG
Started on the TENN 25, 6 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 44, 3 plays, PUNT
Started on the TENN 41, 8 plays, PUNT
Started on the OU 29 after an INT, 3 plays, PUNT (they went backwards 11 yards)
Started on the TENN 20, 3 plays, PUNT
Tennessee had 6 drives with an average starting field position of the TENN 39, and scored nothing. One FG in almost 40 minutes of playtime would have won the game. ANYTHING would have won the game. They got nothing at all. And it's because Josh Dobbs couldn't complete passes to save his life late, and the running game bogged down to a crawl. How bad was it? Dobbs was 13/31 (41.9%) for 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. Even with Jalen Hurd going for 100+ on the ground and a TD in OT, that's still not enough. Not nearly enough.
Here's the good news about the game: The Tennessee defense for most of the game was a wrecking ball in the middle, allowing no access to runs for OU for a great majority of the time, and they were putting constant pressure on the OU QB Baker Mayfield. It looked like Mayfield was running for his life most of the game, but the odd part was that they rarely sacked him. In fact, that would become a major problem late in the game as most of the key plays came for OU when the pocket broke down, Mayfield eluded tackles, and somehow would complete a pass downfield. If the defense could have just put him on the ground, they probably win the game too.
The other good news is that for the first half the offensive line looked pretty solid. A standout for me is #71 Dylan Wiesman, whom I would keep an eye on if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator. If a big running play was getting sprung in the middle, I can almost guarantee it was 71 throwing the block. He looked great out there, and I think he's got the potential to really lay a hurt on some opposing linemen in the running game over the season.
OU in the first half was shooting itself in the foot over and over again. You could sort of see this coming late in the game as the time kept going and Tennessee kept punting. Most of the problems for OU were big plays getting negated by penalties, or interceptions going off receivers hands, or losing reviews on catches that were initially ruled complete. That tide turned in the second half. That's why if you're a Tennessee fan and you want to complain about any calls in this game, especially late, let me explain something to you right now. The officials had nothing to do with you losing. OU was getting buried by their own penalties in the first half, and they even had a TD taken off the board late in the second half. The refs called this one pretty even. Not well, but even.
Here's the bad news: Curt Maggitt, the best pass-rusher on the team and the vocal leader is gone with an injury for we don't know how long. He left mid-way through the game, and it was obvious that OU shifted their focus to the other UT DE Derek Barnett, making his life much tougher. But Barnett was still a terror out there, and man he looks like a force long term for the Vols. More bad news is that OU figured out late they could pick on DB #12 Emmanuel Moseley, a sophomore who looks a little unsure out there. He was the guy who got beat on the tying TD in the corner to take the game to OT. And I don't blame OU for picking on him, I'd take notes if I'm the opposing coach and go after him instead of Cam Sutton who's a much better Tennessee DB on the other side.
But really for me it comes down to how the offense looked out of sync in the second half, and how Josh Dobbs keeps staring down receivers. If you watch him over and over, here's the basic tendencies. Josh will make his first read, and if it's there he'll take it. That's fine, and if that's working the Tennessee offense is in great shape. However, if he has to go to a second read? All hell breaks loose for a few reasons. One, he's taking too long to switch targets and he's running out of time in the pocket. Two, his O-Line isn't good enough in pass protection to give him the time to make long reads. Three, he has to take off when he gets in trouble, and he's not doing a great job of getting reset and keeping eyes down the field. And four, even on the first read if it's not exactly what he wants, he's taking too long to pull the trigger.
I believe he's thinking too much out there, and that last interception was a good example of what I'm talking about. I would prefer any Tennessee fan if they can stomach watching it over again to pull the tape. Watch Dobbs drop back looking middle, then looks right as he sets for what seems like 2-3 seconds before he unloads to his first read. That 2-3 seconds of looking at a receiver is an eternity in college pass protection. OU just finally picked up on it and jumped the route. But it wasn't the first time. Early in the first quarter, Dobbs had to passes literally go through the hands of OU defenders. It's something he's going to have to work on or his INT totals are going to go way up down the field.
It's one game for the Volunteers, that's the best news. The other good news is that the defense overall looks stellar. If the offense can even remotely get on the defense's level, they'll win football games. But they have to start honestly looking at their deficiencies and correcting the fundamental errors on the line and at the QB spot. Otherwise, teams will just stack the box and force Dobbs to start making passes. And with enough film, they are going to pick up on his tendencies. Alabama's defense is watching this tape over and over again right now on how to shut Tennessee down flat.
Long haul? I expect Butch Jones to adapt quickly. Hurd is going to get the ball more. I expect shorter passes to get Dobbs in a rhythm when things look off. I expect they will work out a lot of these kinks against their next cupcake, and they will look a ton better by the time they get down to Florida. And they may get back on a roll if they dust themselves off. After all, this wasn't a conference game. The SEC East is still there for the taking, if they can score enough to take it.
Monday, September 14, 2015
Kentucky Wildcats v. South Carolina Gamecocks: Week 2 Analysis
What an odd game of two completely different halves. When I was watching the film, I thought after the first half that South Carolina was completely inept in all facets of the game, and that Kentucky was going to mow them down on their way to a dominating win. As I watched the second half unfold, I started to wonder if Kentucky could tie its own shoes on the offensive line without getting a holding penalty and killing the drive.
Since this is the first time I'm covering two SEC teams, I'm going to go a little bit more in detail on Kentucky since I covered a good bit of South Carolina's issues in my Week 1 breakdown of their game with UNC. But for starters, Connor Mitch still sucks as a QB for SC. The bad(good) news is that he got hurt in the first half, and he likely won't win his job back even if he was healthy. Instead, SC had to go with Perry Orth as their QB, who did a much better job. More on that later as I talk about the second half of this game.
I had yet to watch Kentucky this year until I turned on this match, and I was surprised by a few things. First, their QB #14 Patrick Towles actually looks like he knows what he's doing (21/29 with 191 yards, an INT, and a rushing TD). This is a RARE thing in SEC football right now, as you may have noticed from all the crazy upsets in the SEC this past weekend. A good QB is hard to find in the conference at the moment, but a guy like Towles looks like he can not only make the short and medium level throws, but he can also run a great screen game and take you deep if you try and check up at the line. Oh and he can run for TD's and first downs as well if the sea parts in the middle. I like the kid, and I think he played probably the star player for Kentucky in this win.
The other thing I noticed about Kentucky is the funky formations they run. A lot of the time they are in what I would call a modified diamond formation offensive set. That means QB is essentially in a shotgun, surrounded on both sides with RBs, and then another RB about 3 steps behind him. The effective use of the formation seems to be both misdirection in the running game and blocking. The downside is that you leave only 2 WR's on the outside, meaning a good defense can put 4-4 in the box and cover the wideouts with single coverage and a safety. No real razzle-dazzle out of the passing game there, it's a straight running offense.
And that worked well in the first half. #18 for Kentucky Boom Williams (his real name is Stanley but Boom is much cooler), and #3 Jo-Jo Kemp (whom I remember from his HUGE game against SC last year) led the charge with the running attack and did very well. But that only lasted a half. Even so Boom ended up with 107 yards on the ground, and Kemp had 78 with a TD.
Up 24-7 in the second half, Kentucky did the unforgivable. They started making drive-killing penalties. First possession? Holding call that led to a 3-and-out. Same on the second possession. Third possession was a 4 yard fumble that they recovered but set them back to another 3-and-out. In fact, Kentucky didn't even have a single first down in the second half until their FIFTH possession when they finally cracked the barrier, and even then they never scored a single offensive point the entire half.
Instead, Perry Orth started to rally the troops. As a UGA fan getting ready to play them next week, watching Connor Mitch struggle gave me hope. Watching Perry Orth suddenly come in and turn the tide around for this South Carolina offense has me worried again. Orth didn't do anything complicated, he just made sure that he tried to find SC's best player (#11 Pharoh Cooper) on every single throw. Sounds simple right? But Kentucky kept letting him get open, and Orth kept finding him. And if they double-covered Cooper, Orth would find the wide-open man standing by himself. He did a great job in recollecting the offense.
The problem was they had dug too much of a hole in the first half, and SC kept getting bogged down in the red zone against Kentucky's defense. Not once, not twice, but thrice they made it inside Kentucky's 20 yard line and had to settle for a FG. If they had just capitalized on another of those, they likely win this game. Instead, when they finally did score a TD on a great Orth throw to the tight end, they went for 2, down 24-22, and didn't get it. Worse, Pharoh Cooper fumbled it and Kentucky rumbled for the scoop and score 2 of their own, making the final 26-22.
South Carolina had once last shot at the game, but Orth finally made his rookie mistake, throwing late across his body on the run. It was an ugly pick too, the kind you just shake your head and say, "Kid you can't make that mistake there, you just can't." Kentucky iced the game away with some good first down running to kill the remainder of the clock.
So what did I learn? I learned that South Carolina is likely in a better place with Orth than Mitch at the QB spot, and I wonder if they wouldn't have won the game outright if Orth had simply started. I questioned Mitch after last week's game and I stand by it. He's awful. I also learned that SC's offensive line is going to have fits with anybody who can run a blitz package effectively. At one point #51 their RT tried to cut block a blitzing corner, whiffed completely, and then stood around looking ashamed as his QB got planted like a lawn dart. It was like watching a really good matador or a really terrible football play all in one.
I learned that Kentucky is no longer the pushover you might think in today's SEC. Chalking up easy victory on this team is anything but with a guy like Towles throwing the ball. He looks more settled than ever as a Junior, and his 3-headed running attack takes a lot of pressure off him. If teams try to play too tight on the run, he can go over the top. If they get too soft, he can swing it to a WR screen. But the downside for Kentucky is their run defense simply isn't going to be good enough against the better teams unless they sell out. And in an SEC where the strength of most teams is pounding you with the run, they will have a hard time playing catchup as teams dominate the ground.
I also learned that if you want to beat South Carolina, their secondary is one step above complete garbage. It's all you can eat off these corners, and any team that can throw the ball around will eat their lunch all year long. Fortunately for them, none of the teams in the SEC East actually know how to throw the ball around except maybe Missouri and Kentucky. But Clemson does, and that game may cause Spurrier to retire.
All in all, I think Kentucky absolutely earned this win, and this was no accident. If they'd cleaned up the stupid mistakes in the second half, it wouldn't have been close.
And that's going to drive Steve Spurrier nuts.
Since this is the first time I'm covering two SEC teams, I'm going to go a little bit more in detail on Kentucky since I covered a good bit of South Carolina's issues in my Week 1 breakdown of their game with UNC. But for starters, Connor Mitch still sucks as a QB for SC. The bad(good) news is that he got hurt in the first half, and he likely won't win his job back even if he was healthy. Instead, SC had to go with Perry Orth as their QB, who did a much better job. More on that later as I talk about the second half of this game.
I had yet to watch Kentucky this year until I turned on this match, and I was surprised by a few things. First, their QB #14 Patrick Towles actually looks like he knows what he's doing (21/29 with 191 yards, an INT, and a rushing TD). This is a RARE thing in SEC football right now, as you may have noticed from all the crazy upsets in the SEC this past weekend. A good QB is hard to find in the conference at the moment, but a guy like Towles looks like he can not only make the short and medium level throws, but he can also run a great screen game and take you deep if you try and check up at the line. Oh and he can run for TD's and first downs as well if the sea parts in the middle. I like the kid, and I think he played probably the star player for Kentucky in this win.
The other thing I noticed about Kentucky is the funky formations they run. A lot of the time they are in what I would call a modified diamond formation offensive set. That means QB is essentially in a shotgun, surrounded on both sides with RBs, and then another RB about 3 steps behind him. The effective use of the formation seems to be both misdirection in the running game and blocking. The downside is that you leave only 2 WR's on the outside, meaning a good defense can put 4-4 in the box and cover the wideouts with single coverage and a safety. No real razzle-dazzle out of the passing game there, it's a straight running offense.
And that worked well in the first half. #18 for Kentucky Boom Williams (his real name is Stanley but Boom is much cooler), and #3 Jo-Jo Kemp (whom I remember from his HUGE game against SC last year) led the charge with the running attack and did very well. But that only lasted a half. Even so Boom ended up with 107 yards on the ground, and Kemp had 78 with a TD.
Up 24-7 in the second half, Kentucky did the unforgivable. They started making drive-killing penalties. First possession? Holding call that led to a 3-and-out. Same on the second possession. Third possession was a 4 yard fumble that they recovered but set them back to another 3-and-out. In fact, Kentucky didn't even have a single first down in the second half until their FIFTH possession when they finally cracked the barrier, and even then they never scored a single offensive point the entire half.
Instead, Perry Orth started to rally the troops. As a UGA fan getting ready to play them next week, watching Connor Mitch struggle gave me hope. Watching Perry Orth suddenly come in and turn the tide around for this South Carolina offense has me worried again. Orth didn't do anything complicated, he just made sure that he tried to find SC's best player (#11 Pharoh Cooper) on every single throw. Sounds simple right? But Kentucky kept letting him get open, and Orth kept finding him. And if they double-covered Cooper, Orth would find the wide-open man standing by himself. He did a great job in recollecting the offense.
The problem was they had dug too much of a hole in the first half, and SC kept getting bogged down in the red zone against Kentucky's defense. Not once, not twice, but thrice they made it inside Kentucky's 20 yard line and had to settle for a FG. If they had just capitalized on another of those, they likely win this game. Instead, when they finally did score a TD on a great Orth throw to the tight end, they went for 2, down 24-22, and didn't get it. Worse, Pharoh Cooper fumbled it and Kentucky rumbled for the scoop and score 2 of their own, making the final 26-22.
South Carolina had once last shot at the game, but Orth finally made his rookie mistake, throwing late across his body on the run. It was an ugly pick too, the kind you just shake your head and say, "Kid you can't make that mistake there, you just can't." Kentucky iced the game away with some good first down running to kill the remainder of the clock.
So what did I learn? I learned that South Carolina is likely in a better place with Orth than Mitch at the QB spot, and I wonder if they wouldn't have won the game outright if Orth had simply started. I questioned Mitch after last week's game and I stand by it. He's awful. I also learned that SC's offensive line is going to have fits with anybody who can run a blitz package effectively. At one point #51 their RT tried to cut block a blitzing corner, whiffed completely, and then stood around looking ashamed as his QB got planted like a lawn dart. It was like watching a really good matador or a really terrible football play all in one.
I learned that Kentucky is no longer the pushover you might think in today's SEC. Chalking up easy victory on this team is anything but with a guy like Towles throwing the ball. He looks more settled than ever as a Junior, and his 3-headed running attack takes a lot of pressure off him. If teams try to play too tight on the run, he can go over the top. If they get too soft, he can swing it to a WR screen. But the downside for Kentucky is their run defense simply isn't going to be good enough against the better teams unless they sell out. And in an SEC where the strength of most teams is pounding you with the run, they will have a hard time playing catchup as teams dominate the ground.
I also learned that if you want to beat South Carolina, their secondary is one step above complete garbage. It's all you can eat off these corners, and any team that can throw the ball around will eat their lunch all year long. Fortunately for them, none of the teams in the SEC East actually know how to throw the ball around except maybe Missouri and Kentucky. But Clemson does, and that game may cause Spurrier to retire.
All in all, I think Kentucky absolutely earned this win, and this was no accident. If they'd cleaned up the stupid mistakes in the second half, it wouldn't have been close.
And that's going to drive Steve Spurrier nuts.
Friday, September 11, 2015
Week 2 SEC Picks!
Well, the first week went about as I expected (very meh), expect the coinflips went really poorly. I went 2-3 on the single unit picks, so I'm down a unit. But that's on the first week with little info. In Week 2 we have slightly more info, but I'm still not going to be making a ton of suggestions on plays. It's usually after Week 3 that we have some real games that have been played, and we start to ramp it up.
Anyway here are the plays!
1 Unit Picks:
Missouri v. Arkansas State +11.5 - I like MISSOURI -11.5 in this game. I realize that Arkansas State has had some success in the past, but Missouri can score and the spread seems a little low for this type of game. Missouri doesn't get a ton of respect in that regard.
East Carolina v. Florida -21 - I like EAST CAROLINA +21 in this game. They played in a bowl game and the gators won by 8. The Gators are switching QBs. East Carolina is one of the tougher teams when it comes to spreads 4-2 ATS as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in September, and 8-3 ATS against non-conference teams.
Georgia v. Vanderbilt +21 - I like GEORGIA -21 in this game. Vanderbilt is awful. AWFUL. They covered in the past in these kind of games because James Franklin was there. But James Franklin is at Penn State and Vandy can't score. Georgia can, and in droves. If the defense is anything like we saw before, Georgia wins by 35.
Coin Flip Games:
I won't say much about these because they are just that, coin flips. We'll know more when they've played some real teams.
Tennessee v. Oklahoma -0.5 - Oklahoma -0.5
South Carolina v. Kentucky +7.5 - South Carolina -7.5
Fresno State v. Ole Miss -28.5 - Fresno State +28.5
Alabama v. Middle Tennessee +34.5 - Middle Tennessee +34.5
Toledo v. Arkansas -21.5 - Toledo +21.5
Texas A&M v. Ball State +29.5 - Ball State +29.5
LSU v. Mississippi State +3.5 - LSU -3.5
Anyway here are the plays!
1 Unit Picks:
Missouri v. Arkansas State +11.5 - I like MISSOURI -11.5 in this game. I realize that Arkansas State has had some success in the past, but Missouri can score and the spread seems a little low for this type of game. Missouri doesn't get a ton of respect in that regard.
East Carolina v. Florida -21 - I like EAST CAROLINA +21 in this game. They played in a bowl game and the gators won by 8. The Gators are switching QBs. East Carolina is one of the tougher teams when it comes to spreads 4-2 ATS as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in September, and 8-3 ATS against non-conference teams.
Georgia v. Vanderbilt +21 - I like GEORGIA -21 in this game. Vanderbilt is awful. AWFUL. They covered in the past in these kind of games because James Franklin was there. But James Franklin is at Penn State and Vandy can't score. Georgia can, and in droves. If the defense is anything like we saw before, Georgia wins by 35.
Coin Flip Games:
I won't say much about these because they are just that, coin flips. We'll know more when they've played some real teams.
Tennessee v. Oklahoma -0.5 - Oklahoma -0.5
South Carolina v. Kentucky +7.5 - South Carolina -7.5
Fresno State v. Ole Miss -28.5 - Fresno State +28.5
Alabama v. Middle Tennessee +34.5 - Middle Tennessee +34.5
Toledo v. Arkansas -21.5 - Toledo +21.5
Texas A&M v. Ball State +29.5 - Ball State +29.5
LSU v. Mississippi State +3.5 - LSU -3.5
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Texas A&M Aggies v. Arizona State Sun Devils: Week One Analysis
I for one didn't get to watch the Texas A&M game since it was on at the same time several other games were on TV that I cared about. You'd think, perhaps like I did, looking at the score that A&M dominated this game since they won 38-17.
Then you watch the tape.
Holy crap, this was a close game with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, and A&M only up by 3 points. Even worse, what I've come to know as a hallmark for an Aggie team (high powered quick offense) wasn't there at all. In fact, the starting Quarterback Kyle Allen was so bad in the first half that they replaced him in the second half with Kyler Murray, then went back to Allen after Murray apparently got injured.
Why did Kyle Allen have such a bad day? Well for starters, the offense was going nowhere in the first half. Yes, they were up 14 points, but much of that was coming off their defense giving them field position, and a huge punt return for a TD. Then, with a 14 point lead, Allen took a really bad sack fumbled inside his own 10 yard line, and that lead to the first Arizona state score. After that, he threw a horrible pick when the Aggies were finally starting to drive down the field in the second quarter.
What he got replaced with was even stranger. Kyler Murray is extremely fast. That's the one thing you notice immediately when he's on the screen. He's so fast that you wonder at times if anybody can catch him. He's tightroping lines, getting out of bad pockets, and juking guys out of their shoes. He looks like Deion Sanders running around out there with children. He's that fast. But he also has no arm to speak of. Every throw down the field was an adventure, and not in a good way. He finally threw a horrific interception right to a defender when nobody was standing around him. I have absolutely no idea who he was throwing to. It was shortly after that that Allen came back into the game in the fourth quarter to try and salvage it offensively.
Without Christian Kirk making an incredible running play on a simple WR screen pass that went 66 yards for a TD, Kyle Allen would have had 135 yards passing in the game on 25 attempts. For an A&M team that was used to tossing the ball around and scoring fast, this offense looked completely pedestrian for three quarters. If it wasn't for the punt return, they should have been losing this game by the time the 4th quarter rolled around. Even their running back Tra Carson kept getting bottled up over and over, despite his late score.
But oh sweet Moses what a defense! I never expected it. You've seen fast defenses, but I have the luxury of watching several plays in a row back to back to back when I review film. This defense is amazingly fast. This defense is like watching speed skaters hopped up on goofballs. The first guy to catch your eye will be #15 Myles Garrett, their defensive end. He's a sophomore, 6-5 and 262 pounds and lightning fast. This guy has NFL rusher written all over him, and it's a real thrill to watch him shed blockers and fly around to the quarterback.
It wasn't just Garrett though, the entire Aggie team forced FIVE fumbles and recovered two of them for turnovers. There were all over the place, making swarm tackles and plays in the backfield. If the play was slow to develop? Forget it, you're toast. They also held Arizona State to under 100 yards rushing, and this was a team that averaged 169 on the ground last year. All in all, I was really shocked at how good the defense looked for A&M, especially since the offense looked so bad. It wasn't until the fourth quarter when A&M broke through with 3 TDs, 2 of them late because Arizona State was pressing in 4-down territory.
I have to wonder though how this speedy defense will handle a power running attack that they will inevitably see in the SEC West. I also have to wonder how the offense will improve, or they will get demolished by some of the other strong SEC defenses. Kyle Allen better figure out something fast, because if that game was any indication, A&M's Quarterback situation is pretty dire.
So to recap, if you can put one word on what A&M is as a team this year, it's this: FAST!
Then you watch the tape.
Holy crap, this was a close game with 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, and A&M only up by 3 points. Even worse, what I've come to know as a hallmark for an Aggie team (high powered quick offense) wasn't there at all. In fact, the starting Quarterback Kyle Allen was so bad in the first half that they replaced him in the second half with Kyler Murray, then went back to Allen after Murray apparently got injured.
Why did Kyle Allen have such a bad day? Well for starters, the offense was going nowhere in the first half. Yes, they were up 14 points, but much of that was coming off their defense giving them field position, and a huge punt return for a TD. Then, with a 14 point lead, Allen took a really bad sack fumbled inside his own 10 yard line, and that lead to the first Arizona state score. After that, he threw a horrible pick when the Aggies were finally starting to drive down the field in the second quarter.
What he got replaced with was even stranger. Kyler Murray is extremely fast. That's the one thing you notice immediately when he's on the screen. He's so fast that you wonder at times if anybody can catch him. He's tightroping lines, getting out of bad pockets, and juking guys out of their shoes. He looks like Deion Sanders running around out there with children. He's that fast. But he also has no arm to speak of. Every throw down the field was an adventure, and not in a good way. He finally threw a horrific interception right to a defender when nobody was standing around him. I have absolutely no idea who he was throwing to. It was shortly after that that Allen came back into the game in the fourth quarter to try and salvage it offensively.
Without Christian Kirk making an incredible running play on a simple WR screen pass that went 66 yards for a TD, Kyle Allen would have had 135 yards passing in the game on 25 attempts. For an A&M team that was used to tossing the ball around and scoring fast, this offense looked completely pedestrian for three quarters. If it wasn't for the punt return, they should have been losing this game by the time the 4th quarter rolled around. Even their running back Tra Carson kept getting bottled up over and over, despite his late score.
But oh sweet Moses what a defense! I never expected it. You've seen fast defenses, but I have the luxury of watching several plays in a row back to back to back when I review film. This defense is amazingly fast. This defense is like watching speed skaters hopped up on goofballs. The first guy to catch your eye will be #15 Myles Garrett, their defensive end. He's a sophomore, 6-5 and 262 pounds and lightning fast. This guy has NFL rusher written all over him, and it's a real thrill to watch him shed blockers and fly around to the quarterback.
It wasn't just Garrett though, the entire Aggie team forced FIVE fumbles and recovered two of them for turnovers. There were all over the place, making swarm tackles and plays in the backfield. If the play was slow to develop? Forget it, you're toast. They also held Arizona State to under 100 yards rushing, and this was a team that averaged 169 on the ground last year. All in all, I was really shocked at how good the defense looked for A&M, especially since the offense looked so bad. It wasn't until the fourth quarter when A&M broke through with 3 TDs, 2 of them late because Arizona State was pressing in 4-down territory.
I have to wonder though how this speedy defense will handle a power running attack that they will inevitably see in the SEC West. I also have to wonder how the offense will improve, or they will get demolished by some of the other strong SEC defenses. Kyle Allen better figure out something fast, because if that game was any indication, A&M's Quarterback situation is pretty dire.
So to recap, if you can put one word on what A&M is as a team this year, it's this: FAST!
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
Alabama Crimson Tide v. Wisconsin Badgers: Week One Analysis
We all know that Alabama's defense is staunch up front. We all know that Alabama has the ability to run the football. Those two things are the identity of an Alabama team under Nick Saban for as long as he's been there. But this Alabama team has a couple more stellar facets on offense, and that could make them very terrifying for anybody who has to face them this season.
Offense:
Let's start with the obvious. Derrick Henry is freaking amazing. Not only did he had 3 TDs in the game, he also showed his prowess in pass protection by way-laying a would-be blitzer and then sticking with the block for the entire length of the play. Rarely do you see a guy who can do that, but Derrick Henry is built like a Linebacker at 6-3 and 242 pounds, and he can hit like one coming through the hole. He'll cause massive problems for any defense, and the first thing anybody will say when they gameplan against Alabama will be: "How do we stop #2?"
The first start for quarterback Jacob Coker was better than I expected. Coker is a transfer senior that lost out in a battle at FSU with Jameis Winston (probably because he wasn't morally bankrupt), then lost out the battle last year at Alabama with Blake Sims. In my opinion, he shouldn't have lost that battle with Sims. I think the main reason he did is that Coker doesn't really have a great deep ball arm, although he can hit the receiver if he's wide open, and he's not as athletic on the ground. It's not a question so much of strength, but more of accuracy. Up close though? Coker is pretty outstanding. He seems to read the defenses well, and he can make all the short to intermediate throws. With a running back like Henry, I don't think you need a ton more than that. He'll fit in nicely with the Alabama game manager role, which is something I don't think Blake Sims ever did well.
Coker was a high percentage passer in the game as you would expect, going 15/21 but averaging 10+ yards a completion. That's big for an Alabama offense that will want to go run first, because it's going to keep opposing defenses from checking down and stacking the box. If Coker and his receivers, especially tight end #88 OJ Howard who I thought had a great game with 3 catches for 12+ yards each, then they will be extremely hard to defend. However, one downside I will point out with Coker is that his internal clock for sacks doesn't seem that great, and he got caught a few times because he can't really beat anybody with his legs. He looks more like a classic pocket passer, but he lacks the gunslinger arm you'd associate with that role, which would make him a top 10 draft pick if he had it.
But it doesn't just stop with Henry and Coker. They have another shifty running back named Kenyan Drake, who can really shake and bake defenders before taking off with some serious outside speed. Drake had a big game with a touchdown as everyone thought he was wrapped up in the middle. Instead, Drake spun off the would-be arm tacklers and jetted to the outside before turning the corner and taking it to the house for 6. It was 43 yards on the ground when he should have been down. I guarantee the Wisconsin coaches were ready to pummel the guys who decided to quit on the play and let Drake out of the box. Oh and just in case you thought Alabama didn't have receivers, they have a very solid WR in #8 Robert Foster, who caught 4 passes for 50 yards and a TD.
Of course Alabama's line is ridiculously strong, led by Center #70 Ryan Kelly. From what I saw of Kelly blocking, he's about as good as it gets in the SEC. He sprung Henry almost single-handedly by taking on a block at the point of attack, then shedding it and sealing off a linebacker as Henry scampered up the middle for a 40+ yard TD. Mind you, that was on 4th and 1, when everyone in the world was expecting a run. And Alabama's line demolished that goal-line defense, breaking it open like a Cadbury Egg for that sweet, sweet cream. That's for you other fat kids out there.
The scariest thing about this Alabama team is I think this offense can get even better, and they took apart a pretty solid defensive team in Wisconsin, with no turnovers. Oh and they were balanced to boot. 264 yards in the air, 238 on the ground. If they aren't the number one team in the country, I don't know who is right now. And I watched Ohio State struggle with Virginia Tech.
Defense:
We already know a lot about what Alabama is on defense. What I noticed the most was the kind of formations they kept running against a Wisconsin team I know wanted to run the ball. If you're playing Alabama, the one thing I would toss out of the playbook is a bunch of runs between the tackles. That's a fantastic way to have your fans on Twitter photoshop your head onto a donkey.
In almost every 3rd and short situation, Alabama was stacking the line with at least 6 guys. They would stand on the other side of the line and dare Wisconsin to throw. And often Wisconsin did throw. When they did, it showed the one glaring weakness on this Alabama team, and that's in the secondary. One guy in particular I noticed that had a tough day was #26 Marlon Humphrey a freshman DB. If you are facing Alabama, tell your QB to try and isolate this guy, and then pick on him. He didn't look ready for primetime to me at all, and he got himself caught at one point with a really stupid PI penalty because he didn't get his head around.
On the flip side, stay the heck away from #29 Minkah Fitzpatrick, the other freshman DB. He was everywhere including blitzes, coverage, and he can make tackles.Yes, he did get beat once for a slant route TD, but only because he was actually TACKLING the receiver as he caught the ball going to the ground. And that's one of the hallmarks of this defense that you would immediately notice. Nobody here is arm tackling. Players can tackle in space. It's amazingly simple, but you see so many college programs screw it up, and you notice when one of the best defenses in the country does it so very well.
The only thing I think Alabama's defense needs to worry about is the same thing that seems to plague them year-to-year. High powered passing, spread, high-tempo offenses will give this team fits. They are young in the back, and a good fast QB who can make them get out of position will have a field day in the passing game. Not to mention if you back them off the line by spreading it out, you'll have more open running lanes in the middle. At the very least, if I'm training a QB coming into this game, all I'm doing is preparing for blitz packages and dumping off the ball quickly. Recognize and react to the blitz. If you can pull that off, you can best this defense in the short run.
But you'll still have a score a bunch, because that offense looks great. And it also looks like it will grind you to death with ball control too. Taking over time of possession and going for long drives just seems to take the air out of a bunch of college kids, and Alabama can do that in spades.
Will the Tide Roll this year? They have a lot more tougher tests than Wisconsin, but I think they've found their QB for sure. Now if they find some strength in the secondary? The Tide will roll all year long.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
South Carolina v. UNC: Week One Analysis
I just got done reviewing the tape on the South Carolina game, and I must say one thing jumped out at me immediately: South Carolina absolutely would have lost this game against any team with a functional offense. Period. End of discussion. UNC turned the ball over on not one, not two, but THREE picks, and two of them were in the end zone. If there was ever a tape to show potential Quarterbacks exactly what NOT to do, this would be perfect. Ship it to every player and force them to watch this terrible game because it was like watching two JV Middle school programs attempt to throw the football. Overthrows? Check. Late across your body? Check. One-read-stare-downs? You better believe it.
Since this is an SEC blog I'll spare the UNC fans the agony of detailing to you how your QB sucked. But man, I've seen some interceptions in my day, and I've rarely seen so many of them thrown right at defenders. Like, not even a guy in the screen wearing blue kind of interceptions. It was pitch and catch to the wrong team, and that's entirely what sunk UNC, along with an inexplicable decision by the coaches to go for a 4th and 1 on their own 35 that they failed to convert. It was like Coach Larry Fedora for UNC had money on the other side. I couldn't believe it.
Anyway, I'll start with Connor Mitch, the new South Carolina QB. And if it were up to me after this game, he'd never start again. If you read the stat line you'd see that he was 9/22 (40.9%) for 122 yards and a passing TD to Pharoh Cooper. That sounds bad, but the actual witnessing of it was so much worse. In Mitch's first possession he somehow got a delay of game. That was the first possession of the whole game. As in, they kicked to SC, they lined up out of a commercial break, and somehow Connor Mitch didn't know how to get the play off. I think I've seen it maybe once before in my life, but I can't recall. Either way, I was dumb-founded. It went downhill from there.
Connor continued his lackluster play by overthrowing a receiver by 10 yards, and SC's first possession was a 3-and-out. In his second possession, it was more of the same with another SC 3-and-out, BUT the tricksy punter decided to pull it down for a fake and got a key first down. Sensing how terrible this was going for his QB, Coach Spurrier decided he had to take the pressure of Mitch. He did this with 3 basic moves: Pharoh Cooper went into the Wildcat formation, he opened up the short passing game with some screens, and he told Mitch to just take off if his first read wasn't there. But I should note that even though Mitch completed a big pass later in the game, he also immediately took an unsportsmanlike taunting penalty. The quarterback that barely completed a pass finally did it and managed to get flagged taunting the other team. I'd have benched his sorry ass right there. Spurrier must be more forgiving. (That's a joke, he'll likely kill him and eat him as I'm writing this, then pretend Mitch never existed)
Now, the only upside I can give to Connor Mitch is that he can sense the pocket and run. He has decent wheels, and if there's no spy he can really hurt you on the scramble. He did this 10 times actually, which is pretty rare for a QB that wasn't exactly supposed to be a dual threat. Then again, most of the time when Mitch tried to throw, I was horrified. The throws were so bad that they couldn't even get intercepted, just float harmlessly out of bounds. Then again, the genius of Spurrier was that he was covering his QB's problems by trying to get his best player Cooper into quick slant situations.
The more times Pharoh Cooper touches the ball, the better for SC's offense. If you take him out of that team, they might not score 14 points offensively. He's that important and that good. If you're a defensive coordinator setting up for South Carolina, I suggest 2 things: 1 - Have a damn good plan for double-covering Cooper, and be ready for him in the wildcat. 2 - Make Conner Mitch stay in the pocket and throw. If you do that and can score 21+ points of your own? Congrats, it's lights out for the Gamecocks.
But there's one more key offensive piece that showed up late for the Gamecocks, and that was #7 Sean Carson. The change-of-pace running back busted a 48-yard run to the right for a touchdown that ended up winning the game. What was interesting to me was how many successful running plays South Carolina had to the right. I couldn't really discern whether it was a hole UNC's offense, a power side running game on the SC offense, or a combo of both. Either way, when the play went well on the run, I noticed it was on the right side.
Mitch cramped up a few times, and that was when backup QB Perry Orth came in, whom I can only assume lost the starting job because nobody respects a game named Perry as a leader. Still, Perry can actually throw the ball and went 2/2 while he was in the game for 24 yards. I'm seriously wondering what the long term is for that position if Mitch has another bad game, because Orth in the limited time I saw him looked much more comfortable.
On defense, South Carolina spent most of the game looking lost in the run game. UNC was gashing them between the tackles, especially with their big-time runningback Elijah Hood. I almost typed in the actor who played a Hobbit, if that helps you remember his name. Hood went for 138 yards on 12 carries if that gives you any idea as to how dominant he was. And yet, UNC only handed him the ball for 12 carries. For some bizarre reason they kept putting the game into the hands of their inept QB Williams who not only turned it over, but also had a hard time making simple completions late. It would end up costing them the game.
There's one guy on defense that stands out head and shoulders above the rest for South Carolina, and that's #10 LB Skai Moore, who had 2 interceptions and 10 total tackles in just one game. If I'm on the other side, I'm doing everything I can to move my offense to the other side of the field away from Moore, and closer to #28 Jonathan Walton. While Walton did make a few tackles, my eye was getting drawn to him on the field as he kept finding his way out of position. Runs would go at his zone, and he would have mistakenly gone the other way. He'd be late to tackles, behind on catches. I'd like to see what a smart OC could do with a tight end playing off his position in the soft zone. You'd likely get a few easy 3rd down conversions with that type of play. Considering the new defensively coordinator at SC, I can't tell if Walton is just lost in the new scheme or if the DC hasn't figured out how to utilize him. Either way, it didn't look good.
In the end, South Carolina won out because UNC couldn't stop throwing it to the other team, and they capitalized on a big defensive lapse that led to a huge running play score. That's pretty much it. If I'm looking at the team as a whole, I think a functional SEC squad should have an easy time gameplanning for what this Game 1 version of South Carolina looks like. However, Spurrier is no dummy and he will take plenty of time to look at the tape and fix some of the glaring holes. I really wonder if he can fix Connor Mitch, though.
Since this is an SEC blog I'll spare the UNC fans the agony of detailing to you how your QB sucked. But man, I've seen some interceptions in my day, and I've rarely seen so many of them thrown right at defenders. Like, not even a guy in the screen wearing blue kind of interceptions. It was pitch and catch to the wrong team, and that's entirely what sunk UNC, along with an inexplicable decision by the coaches to go for a 4th and 1 on their own 35 that they failed to convert. It was like Coach Larry Fedora for UNC had money on the other side. I couldn't believe it.
Anyway, I'll start with Connor Mitch, the new South Carolina QB. And if it were up to me after this game, he'd never start again. If you read the stat line you'd see that he was 9/22 (40.9%) for 122 yards and a passing TD to Pharoh Cooper. That sounds bad, but the actual witnessing of it was so much worse. In Mitch's first possession he somehow got a delay of game. That was the first possession of the whole game. As in, they kicked to SC, they lined up out of a commercial break, and somehow Connor Mitch didn't know how to get the play off. I think I've seen it maybe once before in my life, but I can't recall. Either way, I was dumb-founded. It went downhill from there.
Connor continued his lackluster play by overthrowing a receiver by 10 yards, and SC's first possession was a 3-and-out. In his second possession, it was more of the same with another SC 3-and-out, BUT the tricksy punter decided to pull it down for a fake and got a key first down. Sensing how terrible this was going for his QB, Coach Spurrier decided he had to take the pressure of Mitch. He did this with 3 basic moves: Pharoh Cooper went into the Wildcat formation, he opened up the short passing game with some screens, and he told Mitch to just take off if his first read wasn't there. But I should note that even though Mitch completed a big pass later in the game, he also immediately took an unsportsmanlike taunting penalty. The quarterback that barely completed a pass finally did it and managed to get flagged taunting the other team. I'd have benched his sorry ass right there. Spurrier must be more forgiving. (That's a joke, he'll likely kill him and eat him as I'm writing this, then pretend Mitch never existed)
Now, the only upside I can give to Connor Mitch is that he can sense the pocket and run. He has decent wheels, and if there's no spy he can really hurt you on the scramble. He did this 10 times actually, which is pretty rare for a QB that wasn't exactly supposed to be a dual threat. Then again, most of the time when Mitch tried to throw, I was horrified. The throws were so bad that they couldn't even get intercepted, just float harmlessly out of bounds. Then again, the genius of Spurrier was that he was covering his QB's problems by trying to get his best player Cooper into quick slant situations.
The more times Pharoh Cooper touches the ball, the better for SC's offense. If you take him out of that team, they might not score 14 points offensively. He's that important and that good. If you're a defensive coordinator setting up for South Carolina, I suggest 2 things: 1 - Have a damn good plan for double-covering Cooper, and be ready for him in the wildcat. 2 - Make Conner Mitch stay in the pocket and throw. If you do that and can score 21+ points of your own? Congrats, it's lights out for the Gamecocks.
But there's one more key offensive piece that showed up late for the Gamecocks, and that was #7 Sean Carson. The change-of-pace running back busted a 48-yard run to the right for a touchdown that ended up winning the game. What was interesting to me was how many successful running plays South Carolina had to the right. I couldn't really discern whether it was a hole UNC's offense, a power side running game on the SC offense, or a combo of both. Either way, when the play went well on the run, I noticed it was on the right side.
Mitch cramped up a few times, and that was when backup QB Perry Orth came in, whom I can only assume lost the starting job because nobody respects a game named Perry as a leader. Still, Perry can actually throw the ball and went 2/2 while he was in the game for 24 yards. I'm seriously wondering what the long term is for that position if Mitch has another bad game, because Orth in the limited time I saw him looked much more comfortable.
On defense, South Carolina spent most of the game looking lost in the run game. UNC was gashing them between the tackles, especially with their big-time runningback Elijah Hood. I almost typed in the actor who played a Hobbit, if that helps you remember his name. Hood went for 138 yards on 12 carries if that gives you any idea as to how dominant he was. And yet, UNC only handed him the ball for 12 carries. For some bizarre reason they kept putting the game into the hands of their inept QB Williams who not only turned it over, but also had a hard time making simple completions late. It would end up costing them the game.
There's one guy on defense that stands out head and shoulders above the rest for South Carolina, and that's #10 LB Skai Moore, who had 2 interceptions and 10 total tackles in just one game. If I'm on the other side, I'm doing everything I can to move my offense to the other side of the field away from Moore, and closer to #28 Jonathan Walton. While Walton did make a few tackles, my eye was getting drawn to him on the field as he kept finding his way out of position. Runs would go at his zone, and he would have mistakenly gone the other way. He'd be late to tackles, behind on catches. I'd like to see what a smart OC could do with a tight end playing off his position in the soft zone. You'd likely get a few easy 3rd down conversions with that type of play. Considering the new defensively coordinator at SC, I can't tell if Walton is just lost in the new scheme or if the DC hasn't figured out how to utilize him. Either way, it didn't look good.
In the end, South Carolina won out because UNC couldn't stop throwing it to the other team, and they capitalized on a big defensive lapse that led to a huge running play score. That's pretty much it. If I'm looking at the team as a whole, I think a functional SEC squad should have an easy time gameplanning for what this Game 1 version of South Carolina looks like. However, Spurrier is no dummy and he will take plenty of time to look at the tape and fix some of the glaring holes. I really wonder if he can fix Connor Mitch, though.
Wednesday, September 2, 2015
Week 1 SEC Picks and gambling explanations
Each week before the Thursday game (if the SEC is playing in it) I'll release the picks for each week. If there's no Thursday game I'll release the picks on Fridays.
Each pick will be based on a certain amount of units. If you're a betting person, the amount of your average bet is called a unit. So for example, let's say you feel comfortable betting $10 a game normally. That's your 1 unit bet. I'll be ranking these bets by number of units from 1-3. If you're a $10 unit player, a 1 unit bet would be $10, and a 3 unit bet would be $30. Obviously, I'd have more confidence in 3 unit bets than 1 unit bets. I'll also release picks that I think are coinflips, meaning I wouldn't bet these, but if you're forced to pick them in a college pickem pool, or you're a complete degenerate that bets everything, I'll tell you which way I'm leaning. However, on coinflip picks I am basically indicating I don't think there's a true edge on paper. That's not to say some coinflips won't win and some 3-units won't lose, but there's a method to the madness. It's about confidence level over the long-term.
So let's get it started! Since this is Week 1, we have very little real information about these teams. That means I'll be making picks mostly based on the prior 3 season trends, head-to-heads last season, any coaching changes, and offensive key position changes. That being said, there's never going to be more than 1-unit or coinflip plays in Week 1. You don't bet big units when you have little info. That's for later in the season.
I'll give each pick with the Away team versus the Home team, and the home team's spread. The spread, for those of you who don't know, is the amount of points you either add or subtract from a team's score at the end of the game. Think of it like a handicap. For example, if Vanderbilt is playing Kentucky, and Kentucky is -4, that means that Kentucky is a 4 point favorite. Also it means that Vanderbilt is a 4 point underdog. When the game is over, if you bet on Kentucky, and they won 35-30, they won by 5 points. You would win your bet (35 minus 4 is 31, and 31-30 is a win). However, Kentucky only won 33-30, they would have won by 3 points, and you lost (33 minus 4 is 29, and 29-30 is a loss). Remember, if you're betting on favorites, you subtract your spread from their score and then see if they would still have a higher score than the opponent.
(When giving ATS stats, I'm using the last 3 seasons unless otherwise indicated)
1 Unit Plays:
North Carolina v. South Carolina -3.0 : I like SOUTH CAROLINA -3 in this game. SC is 4-1 over the last 3 seasons in close spreads (-3 to +3), and they are 6-3 ATS (against the spread) in non-conference games while UNC is 3-6 in Non-conf, and 0-5 in September games.
UTEP v. Arkansas -33 : I like ARKANSAS -33 in this game. It's a lot of points to lay in this game, but Arkansas is usually good early in the year and they love to prove a point to voters with lots of points. Also UTEP is 4-13 as an underdog ATS.
Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3.5 : I like ARIZONA STATE +3.5 in this game. Texas A&M is a terrible team for betting on historically. They are 9-17 ATS in the last 3 years, and 5-12 as a favorite. Meanwhile, Arizona State is basically .500 in their lined games. Since they are getting points, I'm leaning to the Devils.
Louisiana-Lafayette v. Kentucky -17 : I like KENTUCKY -17 in this game. Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in non-conf, and 5-2 ATS as a favorite. Lafayette is something of an SEC whipping boy that is 0-2 ATS against SEC opponents.
Mississippi State v. Southern Mississippi +23.5 : I like MISSISSIPPI STATE -23.5 in this game. Southern Miss is 8-16 ATS across all their lined games, which is enough to make me lean MS State. Add in the fact MS State is 6-3 ATS on the road and I think it's worth a unit play.
Coin Flips: (pick if you have to)
Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +2.5 : I like WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. Vanderbilt may not even win 3 games this year as I detailed in the O/U segment, but Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in close spreads. Vanderbilt isn't much better as they are 3-6 in non-conf. Both stink so I wouldn't play this.
Louisiana-Monroe v. UGA -35.5 : I like LOUISIANA-MONROE +35.5 in this game. I don't think it will be close at all, but in betting I don't normally lay more than 5 TDs on the line with a team that has a new QB and a new OC. So I want to see more out of the new Georgia offense before laying that.
Louisville v. Auburn -11 : I like AUBURN -11 in this game. Auburn has a bad habit of being a coinflip at 9-9 as a favorite over the last 3 years, but Louisville is 13-13 ATS against all games. I'm leaning to Auburn simply because I think their offense will outscore Louisville, but this could easily get close.
Bowling Green v. Tennessee -20.5 : I like TENNESSEE -20.5 in this game. Can Tennessee put up 21 points on Bowling Green? Yes. But Bowling Green also has a bad habit of sticking around as an underdog with a 6-3 ATS as an underdog. However, I'd lean Tennessee because it's at home and they will want to make a statement with their new QB early.
New Mexico State v. Florida -37 : I like NEW MEXICO STATE -37 in this game. This is one game I wouldn't touch with real money. I'm leaning NMSt simply for my 5 TD rule, and the fact Florida is completely brand new with a new coaching staff.
Wisconsin v. Alabama -10.5 : I like WISCONSIN +10.5 in this game. Alabama is 6-2 ATS in spreads over 10 and less then 21, but they are 2-7 in non-conference games. Could Alabama win big? Yes. That's why this one is a tough call, but their QB situation worries me when it comes to scoring and Wisconsin is not a pushover.
Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU were all in unlined games as of this coming out, so there will be no picks for them this week.
Each pick will be based on a certain amount of units. If you're a betting person, the amount of your average bet is called a unit. So for example, let's say you feel comfortable betting $10 a game normally. That's your 1 unit bet. I'll be ranking these bets by number of units from 1-3. If you're a $10 unit player, a 1 unit bet would be $10, and a 3 unit bet would be $30. Obviously, I'd have more confidence in 3 unit bets than 1 unit bets. I'll also release picks that I think are coinflips, meaning I wouldn't bet these, but if you're forced to pick them in a college pickem pool, or you're a complete degenerate that bets everything, I'll tell you which way I'm leaning. However, on coinflip picks I am basically indicating I don't think there's a true edge on paper. That's not to say some coinflips won't win and some 3-units won't lose, but there's a method to the madness. It's about confidence level over the long-term.
So let's get it started! Since this is Week 1, we have very little real information about these teams. That means I'll be making picks mostly based on the prior 3 season trends, head-to-heads last season, any coaching changes, and offensive key position changes. That being said, there's never going to be more than 1-unit or coinflip plays in Week 1. You don't bet big units when you have little info. That's for later in the season.
I'll give each pick with the Away team versus the Home team, and the home team's spread. The spread, for those of you who don't know, is the amount of points you either add or subtract from a team's score at the end of the game. Think of it like a handicap. For example, if Vanderbilt is playing Kentucky, and Kentucky is -4, that means that Kentucky is a 4 point favorite. Also it means that Vanderbilt is a 4 point underdog. When the game is over, if you bet on Kentucky, and they won 35-30, they won by 5 points. You would win your bet (35 minus 4 is 31, and 31-30 is a win). However, Kentucky only won 33-30, they would have won by 3 points, and you lost (33 minus 4 is 29, and 29-30 is a loss). Remember, if you're betting on favorites, you subtract your spread from their score and then see if they would still have a higher score than the opponent.
(When giving ATS stats, I'm using the last 3 seasons unless otherwise indicated)
1 Unit Plays:
North Carolina v. South Carolina -3.0 : I like SOUTH CAROLINA -3 in this game. SC is 4-1 over the last 3 seasons in close spreads (-3 to +3), and they are 6-3 ATS (against the spread) in non-conference games while UNC is 3-6 in Non-conf, and 0-5 in September games.
UTEP v. Arkansas -33 : I like ARKANSAS -33 in this game. It's a lot of points to lay in this game, but Arkansas is usually good early in the year and they love to prove a point to voters with lots of points. Also UTEP is 4-13 as an underdog ATS.
Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3.5 : I like ARIZONA STATE +3.5 in this game. Texas A&M is a terrible team for betting on historically. They are 9-17 ATS in the last 3 years, and 5-12 as a favorite. Meanwhile, Arizona State is basically .500 in their lined games. Since they are getting points, I'm leaning to the Devils.
Louisiana-Lafayette v. Kentucky -17 : I like KENTUCKY -17 in this game. Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in non-conf, and 5-2 ATS as a favorite. Lafayette is something of an SEC whipping boy that is 0-2 ATS against SEC opponents.
Mississippi State v. Southern Mississippi +23.5 : I like MISSISSIPPI STATE -23.5 in this game. Southern Miss is 8-16 ATS across all their lined games, which is enough to make me lean MS State. Add in the fact MS State is 6-3 ATS on the road and I think it's worth a unit play.
Coin Flips: (pick if you have to)
Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +2.5 : I like WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. Vanderbilt may not even win 3 games this year as I detailed in the O/U segment, but Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in close spreads. Vanderbilt isn't much better as they are 3-6 in non-conf. Both stink so I wouldn't play this.
Louisiana-Monroe v. UGA -35.5 : I like LOUISIANA-MONROE +35.5 in this game. I don't think it will be close at all, but in betting I don't normally lay more than 5 TDs on the line with a team that has a new QB and a new OC. So I want to see more out of the new Georgia offense before laying that.
Louisville v. Auburn -11 : I like AUBURN -11 in this game. Auburn has a bad habit of being a coinflip at 9-9 as a favorite over the last 3 years, but Louisville is 13-13 ATS against all games. I'm leaning to Auburn simply because I think their offense will outscore Louisville, but this could easily get close.
Bowling Green v. Tennessee -20.5 : I like TENNESSEE -20.5 in this game. Can Tennessee put up 21 points on Bowling Green? Yes. But Bowling Green also has a bad habit of sticking around as an underdog with a 6-3 ATS as an underdog. However, I'd lean Tennessee because it's at home and they will want to make a statement with their new QB early.
New Mexico State v. Florida -37 : I like NEW MEXICO STATE -37 in this game. This is one game I wouldn't touch with real money. I'm leaning NMSt simply for my 5 TD rule, and the fact Florida is completely brand new with a new coaching staff.
Wisconsin v. Alabama -10.5 : I like WISCONSIN +10.5 in this game. Alabama is 6-2 ATS in spreads over 10 and less then 21, but they are 2-7 in non-conference games. Could Alabama win big? Yes. That's why this one is a tough call, but their QB situation worries me when it comes to scoring and Wisconsin is not a pushover.
Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU were all in unlined games as of this coming out, so there will be no picks for them this week.
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Over/Under Season Wins in the SEC Predictions
I thought I'd lead this off with a quick predictions thread on the season, and how many teams will go over and under on their season win totals. For those of you that aren't familiar, the over/under is where a casino sets a number of wins, say 9 wins on the regular season, and the gambler predicts whether that team will go over (10 or more) or under (8 or less) in this case. Every major gambling site does these before the beginning of the year, and I don't usually like to bet them because you are almost always at a disadvantage in terms of information, and you don't get your money back until January. But in this case I'll go over my thoughts on each team.
Using Sportsbook.ag lines as of today, here are my predictions for all the SEC teams. (Kentucky and Vanderbilt weren't listed here so I'll use another site for them last)
Alabama - O/U 9.5 wins. My prediction is OVER. I think that Alabama loses 1-2 games this year, and I think it's a combination of Auburn, LSU, Georgia, or MS State. While their road games will be tough, I don't expect them to go worse than 50/50 in that stretch, and I expect them to go undefeated at home.
Arkansas - O/U 8 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Arkansas is always vastly overrated early in the media ranks, then they tank. Arkansas beat LSU and Ole Miss last year, and somehow people forgot they still had 6 losses on the schedule. They will play at least 5 ranked teams in the schedule this year and could lose them all.
Auburn - O/U 8.5 wins. My prediction is OVER. Auburn's East opponent this year is Kentucky, and they have Georgia at home, and Alabama at home. That's a huge advantage for them in terms of schedule. I have Auburn at 9 wins since I think they will struggle at LSU, at A&M, and lose either Bama or Georgia.
Florida - O/U 7 wins. My prediction is OVER. I think 8 wins is actually the number for Florida this year. They will improve slightly, but they still don't have what it takes to beat a rising FSU, LSU, and Ole Miss. However, the East is weak, Tennessee is far from a lock, SC has fallen off, and UGA has problems beating even a bad Florida team.
Georgia - O/U 9 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Georgia is absurdly overrated this year for what they are, and I say that as a fan of the team. New OC, new transfer QB, new center, still working on the defense. But they have Nick Chubb so 9 wins? I'm not buying it. They have Alabama and Auburn on the schedule, a Florida team they always struggle with, a GA Tech team that's actually ranked now, and a rising TN team on the road. Nothing will come easy for these Dawgs. I'm predicting 8 wins or maybe even worse if the wheels come off.
LSU - O/U 8.5 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Where's the offense coming from this year? The brand new QB Brandon Harris everyone is gaga about and Leonard Fournette? If I told you Fournette had 1000 yards rushing last year, you'd think yes. If I told you against Alabama, Auburn, MS State, and Arkansas he had exactly 168 yards in those 4 games, you might think again. I don't think Fournette is the big-time threat people think yet, nor do I think Brandon Harris is ready to put up the points LSU desperately needs to be successful. My guess, 8 wins and just under. They'll lose to some bad teams that make you wonder.
Mississippi State - O/U 7 games. My prediction is a PUSH. I'll say this about MS State, they will score some point this year. I just don't trust their defense in big games, and I think Dak Prescott isn't the answer if you're way behind. MS State's schedule is horrific. They have Auburn and LSU early with a bunch of cupcakes, so they may start 6-2. But the end is Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. I think they win one of those games. 7 wins total.
Missouri - O/U 7.5 games. My prediction is OVER. I think this is one of the easier one. Missouri gets underrated every year, and for the last two years they won the East. The East isn't THAT much stronger this year, but assume you believe UGA and TN are both great and Mizzou loses. The rest of their schedule is mostly unranked and very winnable. They return their QB (one of the few teams that does) and they always know how to score points. I think this is one of the few I'd actually bet.
Ole Miss - O/U 8.5 games. My prediction is UNDER. Ole Miss has a great defense, but their offense this year is going to fall off a cliff in my mind. Not that it was stellar under Bo Wallace. But with so much going on in the West, I feel this is one of the teams due for a huge step back. I'll say 7-8 wins on the season.
South Carolina - O/U 6.5 games. My prediction is OVER. How the mighty have fallen here. Spurrier shouldn't have a team with an over/under of less than 7 games. But here we are. So the question is if there are 7 wins on this schedule. I think UNC, Kentucky, UCF, Vandy and the Citadel are easy wins. So that's 5. Can they pull two more out of A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Clemson, or Georgia? I think yes. Spurrier always likes to shock you.
Tennessee - O/U 8 games. My prediction is PUSH. Tennessee is going to do better this season, but I don't think they have the strength to fend off Arkansas, OU, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Missouri. I think they lose 4 of those 6 games, and that puts them in the 8 win camp. Which depending on the wins, I think Tennessee fans will be pleased about the season. The question for me is young Josh Dobbs, who Tennessee faithful are very high on, and I'm not convinced he's ready for SEC primetime just yet.
Texas A&M - O/U 7.5 games. My prediction is UNDER. I count 6 ranked teams alone on A&M's schedule, plus another two SEC West rivals that won't be pushovers. Nothing looks easy for A&M this year and while they make shock a few people with some very key wins, this still looks like a 7 win year for the Aggies to me.
This last two I'm pulling from CBS sports since the totals weren't listed on my site:
Kentucky - O/U 6 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Kentucky isn't ready yet. They're never ready. It's why not matter what they do, people never take them really seriously. This year is no different. I'll say 5 wins, and they miss the bowls barely.
Vanderbilt - O/U 3 wins. My prediction is UNDER. This Vandy team may not win 2 games this season. It's that bad, and their schedule doesn't let up. Western Kentucky is no joke for this Vandy team. They could beat Austin Peay, and maybe Middle Tennessee or Houston. That's about it honestly. They are as non of a non-factor as you can get this year.
As for the SEC Champions Picture? Here are those picks:
West Champion - Alabama
East Champion - Missouri
SEC Champion - Alabama +180 (that's the money line for the bet)
It might be boring, but you know what? I don't think many people besides Alabama and LSU if their offense comes together look good enough to win this thing. If you're feeling frisky and think Mizzou might sneak up and finally win the Championship game, they are +2200 on the money line. So, it's not a bad long-shot play.
So, those are the picks! Tune in tomorrow when I pick the SEC games against the spread for Week 1! It should be hilarious.
Using Sportsbook.ag lines as of today, here are my predictions for all the SEC teams. (Kentucky and Vanderbilt weren't listed here so I'll use another site for them last)
Alabama - O/U 9.5 wins. My prediction is OVER. I think that Alabama loses 1-2 games this year, and I think it's a combination of Auburn, LSU, Georgia, or MS State. While their road games will be tough, I don't expect them to go worse than 50/50 in that stretch, and I expect them to go undefeated at home.
Arkansas - O/U 8 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Arkansas is always vastly overrated early in the media ranks, then they tank. Arkansas beat LSU and Ole Miss last year, and somehow people forgot they still had 6 losses on the schedule. They will play at least 5 ranked teams in the schedule this year and could lose them all.
Auburn - O/U 8.5 wins. My prediction is OVER. Auburn's East opponent this year is Kentucky, and they have Georgia at home, and Alabama at home. That's a huge advantage for them in terms of schedule. I have Auburn at 9 wins since I think they will struggle at LSU, at A&M, and lose either Bama or Georgia.
Florida - O/U 7 wins. My prediction is OVER. I think 8 wins is actually the number for Florida this year. They will improve slightly, but they still don't have what it takes to beat a rising FSU, LSU, and Ole Miss. However, the East is weak, Tennessee is far from a lock, SC has fallen off, and UGA has problems beating even a bad Florida team.
Georgia - O/U 9 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Georgia is absurdly overrated this year for what they are, and I say that as a fan of the team. New OC, new transfer QB, new center, still working on the defense. But they have Nick Chubb so 9 wins? I'm not buying it. They have Alabama and Auburn on the schedule, a Florida team they always struggle with, a GA Tech team that's actually ranked now, and a rising TN team on the road. Nothing will come easy for these Dawgs. I'm predicting 8 wins or maybe even worse if the wheels come off.
LSU - O/U 8.5 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Where's the offense coming from this year? The brand new QB Brandon Harris everyone is gaga about and Leonard Fournette? If I told you Fournette had 1000 yards rushing last year, you'd think yes. If I told you against Alabama, Auburn, MS State, and Arkansas he had exactly 168 yards in those 4 games, you might think again. I don't think Fournette is the big-time threat people think yet, nor do I think Brandon Harris is ready to put up the points LSU desperately needs to be successful. My guess, 8 wins and just under. They'll lose to some bad teams that make you wonder.
Mississippi State - O/U 7 games. My prediction is a PUSH. I'll say this about MS State, they will score some point this year. I just don't trust their defense in big games, and I think Dak Prescott isn't the answer if you're way behind. MS State's schedule is horrific. They have Auburn and LSU early with a bunch of cupcakes, so they may start 6-2. But the end is Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. I think they win one of those games. 7 wins total.
Missouri - O/U 7.5 games. My prediction is OVER. I think this is one of the easier one. Missouri gets underrated every year, and for the last two years they won the East. The East isn't THAT much stronger this year, but assume you believe UGA and TN are both great and Mizzou loses. The rest of their schedule is mostly unranked and very winnable. They return their QB (one of the few teams that does) and they always know how to score points. I think this is one of the few I'd actually bet.
Ole Miss - O/U 8.5 games. My prediction is UNDER. Ole Miss has a great defense, but their offense this year is going to fall off a cliff in my mind. Not that it was stellar under Bo Wallace. But with so much going on in the West, I feel this is one of the teams due for a huge step back. I'll say 7-8 wins on the season.
South Carolina - O/U 6.5 games. My prediction is OVER. How the mighty have fallen here. Spurrier shouldn't have a team with an over/under of less than 7 games. But here we are. So the question is if there are 7 wins on this schedule. I think UNC, Kentucky, UCF, Vandy and the Citadel are easy wins. So that's 5. Can they pull two more out of A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Clemson, or Georgia? I think yes. Spurrier always likes to shock you.
Tennessee - O/U 8 games. My prediction is PUSH. Tennessee is going to do better this season, but I don't think they have the strength to fend off Arkansas, OU, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Missouri. I think they lose 4 of those 6 games, and that puts them in the 8 win camp. Which depending on the wins, I think Tennessee fans will be pleased about the season. The question for me is young Josh Dobbs, who Tennessee faithful are very high on, and I'm not convinced he's ready for SEC primetime just yet.
Texas A&M - O/U 7.5 games. My prediction is UNDER. I count 6 ranked teams alone on A&M's schedule, plus another two SEC West rivals that won't be pushovers. Nothing looks easy for A&M this year and while they make shock a few people with some very key wins, this still looks like a 7 win year for the Aggies to me.
This last two I'm pulling from CBS sports since the totals weren't listed on my site:
Kentucky - O/U 6 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Kentucky isn't ready yet. They're never ready. It's why not matter what they do, people never take them really seriously. This year is no different. I'll say 5 wins, and they miss the bowls barely.
Vanderbilt - O/U 3 wins. My prediction is UNDER. This Vandy team may not win 2 games this season. It's that bad, and their schedule doesn't let up. Western Kentucky is no joke for this Vandy team. They could beat Austin Peay, and maybe Middle Tennessee or Houston. That's about it honestly. They are as non of a non-factor as you can get this year.
As for the SEC Champions Picture? Here are those picks:
West Champion - Alabama
East Champion - Missouri
SEC Champion - Alabama +180 (that's the money line for the bet)
It might be boring, but you know what? I don't think many people besides Alabama and LSU if their offense comes together look good enough to win this thing. If you're feeling frisky and think Mizzou might sneak up and finally win the Championship game, they are +2200 on the money line. So, it's not a bad long-shot play.
So, those are the picks! Tune in tomorrow when I pick the SEC games against the spread for Week 1! It should be hilarious.
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