SEC Picks Week 13

What matters from last week is that I was right on Florida winning outright and cashed a 4.5-1 money line bet. That's awesome. Any day you can do that is the win. The other picks washed out so I gained 4.5 units. Not a bad day's work on to the this Thanksgiving rivalry weekend!

BETTING PICKS:

LSU v. Texas A&M +6.5 - I like LSU -6.5 (1 Unit). I'm not in love with the pick because I think the line is pretty fair, but I never know how LSU is going to play on the road, and I'm not sure if A&M has given up or can score on LSU's suffocating defense. Only one unit.

Kentucky v. Louisville -26.5 - I like LOUISVILLE -26.5 (2 Units) because they got embarrassed by Houston last week. Look, Louisville is good and Kentucky isn't. But add in the fact that Louisville is coming off a game where they were pissed off and punked? Kentucky might get destroyed.

Tennessee v. Vanderbilt +7.5 - I like VANDERBILT +7.5 (1 Unit) since Vandy getting points at home in a rivalry game is usually a good thing. I'm not entirely sure Tennessee is even mentally right for this game and Vanderbilt is playing for the chance at a bowl game.

Auburn v. Alabama -17 - I like ALABAMA -17 (1 Unit) Just ride Alabama until the money train stops. That's the only thing you need to worry about right now.

South Carolina v. Clemson -24 - I like SOUTH CAROLINA +24 (3 Units). This spread makes no sense. At the absolute worst, which was last year, South Carolina lost this game 37-32. I think that Clemson team was better last year, and this South Carolina team is better this year.

MONEY LINE PICK OF THE WEEK

I like Florida again getting +230 against FSU in a game that Florida needs to win to have a shot at the Sugar Bowl. So everything on the line, and I don't believe Florida State is amazing this year. We'll see, it's worth the flyer.

SEC Picks Week 12

So I won a unit last week. Sorry about not doing a film review again but time is a factor now as we get later into the holidays. I don't expect to put up another film review until the SEC championship unless a game really jumps out at me. Last week with UGA upsetting Auburn was a fun game, but it wasn't one I think works well on tape unless you love pointing out how Auburn made massive mistakes. While that's fun, it's pretty obvious to anybody that watched. I like pointing out the subtleties. And I'd need more time. Which I don't have.

Anyway, I finally hit the FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK with UGA! Woooo! Then Arkansas cost me huge. If I'd won that game, I would have pulled off an 11 unit swing and saved my season. Oh well. Reminder that this is a terrible week of crap in the SEC outside of 3 games, most of which aren't lined. I will be spending this weekend outdoors with the girlfriend. On to the picks!

BETTING PICKS:

UL Lafayette v. Georgia -23: I'm taking UL LAFAYETTE +23 (2 Units) - Georgia's coming off a big high beating Auburn. They have Tech next week. This is the very definition of the trap game and this is a lot of points for a Georgia team that can't really score.

Missouri v. Tennessee -16.5: I'm taking MISSOURI +16.5 (2 Units) - I mean I guess Missouri is bad, but is Tennessee suddenly good? Like 16.5 points good? The public is 80% on Tennessee right now and the sharps will always go the other way on that high of a betting line so I'm following suit.


UPSET ML PICK:

Guys, FLORIDA is +450 on the road against LSU. That's insane. The team is NOT that bad, and there's real value here for Florida to pull off an upset against an LSU team that I don't believe is playing with anywhere near enough offense consistently. Florida's defense is good, and their offense is crap. LSU's defense is great and their offense is mostly crap too. In a defensive war, anything can happen. I'll take the flyer here.

SEC Picks Week 11

I'll cut to the chase. I went even up on units last week so this week I only have two picks. I won't bother wasting your time on all the other games because here are the two that matter:

BETTING PICKS:

South Carolina v. Florida -11: I'll take FLORDIA -11 (3 units) South Carolina is coming off a high of winning against a bad Tennessee team with massive injuries and no direction. They are about to head into the Swamp where they won in 2014 in OT. Florida remembers that. They also remember they HAVE to win this game to win the East. And their defense will deliver because South Carolina's offense is awful.

LSU v. Arkansas +7: I'll take ARKANSAS +7 (5 units) Again, like last week against Florida, I have no idea why Arkansas keeps getting ZERO respect on the lines. They were 4 point underdogs against Florida and crushed them. That was the easiest pick all week. Now they have an LSU team that is coming off being beaten to death by Alabama? I'm taking Arkansas huge.

UPSET ML PICK:

Take the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens +300. Nobody sees this coming, and the Dawgs are the biggest underdog they've ever been at home in 20 years. This game can go one of two ways. Auburn can come in and blow doors, which is a possibility. However, Auburn hasn't won in Athens since 2010, and they haven't been close in the other matchups. This could end up being the Dawgs shocking win of the year. But don't go huge on it. I'd say toss 1-2 units for the upside.

Week 10 Review: The SEC East Projections

We're 2/3 of the way through the conference season, so instead of doing a film review of the CBS game this week (which was a boring defensive slog in my mind), I'd rather take a look at the path to the dome for several of the remaining teams that have a shot. Let's take a look at the options.

TENNESSEE:

Yes, Tennessee is still alive in the SEC East, although they need a lot of help. Here's their remaining games on the schedule:

Kentucky at home
Missouri at home
Vandy on the road

Those are fairly simple games, but then again Tennessee lost to South Carolina and they are injured to hell and back. There's a scenario where Tennessee can have a loss and make it to the dome. However, it's much easier if they win out. Let's project the scenarios:

Have 2 losses on the remaining schedule: OUT
Lose to Kentucky: OUT (this would give Kentucky 5 SEC wins)
Win against Kentucky and either Mizzou or Vandy, and Florida 1 of their remaining 2 games: OUT
Win against Kentucky and either Mizzou or Vandy, Florida loses their final 2: OUT (because South Carolina would have beaten Florida, getting them to 4 wins, and they have H2H on Tennessee)
Win against Kentucky and Vandy, lose to Mizzou. Florida loses both games, Georgia beats Auburn: IN (via 5-way 4 win tiebreaker)
Tennessee wins out, Florida wins out: OUT (Florida has 6 wins)
Tennessee wins out, Florida loses a game: IN (this is the only scenario that works for Tennessee)

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Yes, South Carolina can win the East as well. There's several scenarios where this happens though, and it's complicated.

Beat Florida, and Tennessee loses a game to somebody not named Kentucky, Georgia loses to Auburn: IN (South Carolina then has 4 wins, H2H over 4 win Florida and Tennessee teams)
Beat Florida, Tennessee loses to Vandy AND Mizzou: IN (South Carolina wins a tiebreaker going up to 6 teams which would be insane, depending on Georgia v. Auburn)


KENTUCKY:

Yes, Kentucky is still in it. They have to do one thing just like South Carolina, also very complicated.

Beat Tennessee, and Florida takes 2 losses to South Carolina and LSU: IN (Kentucky has 5 wins, everybody else has 4 or less)

FLORIDA:

Florida has the simplest route: Win out and you're IN (they would have 6 SEC wins)

Georgia, Vandy, and Missouri are eliminated.

Week 10 SEC Picks

Hey I actually won Week 8 by going up one unit, then promptly forgot to make picks in Week 9 because I was going out of town. Ooops. Anyway, let's do this with the picks for this week!

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS:

Texas A&M v. Mississippi State - TEXAS A&M
Vanderbilt v. Auburn - AUBURN
GA Southern v. Ole Miss - OLE MISS
Florida v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
Missouri v. South Carolina - SOUTH CAROLINA
Tenn Tech v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Georgia v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Alabama v. LSU - ALABAMA

BETTING PICKS:

Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +14 - I'll take MS STATE +14 (1 Unit). Look MS State is awful. Texas A&M isn't. But 14 points for a home dog is ridiculous unless it's Alabama playing them, and Texas A&M isn't Alabama at all. So I'm taking the number.

Florida v. Arkansas +4 - I'll take ARKANSAS +4 (2 Units) Why is Arkansas getting points at home to a Florida team that was anything but impressive offensively against a bad Georgia team? That makes no sense. I'm taking the points again.

Mizzou v. South Carolina -7 - Again I'm taking MISSOURI +7 (1 Unit) It's about points and the fact South Carolina's offense is crap. If Missouri can keep it within one score, and I think they can, then this should be an easy cover for the dog.

Georgia v. Kentucky +2 - This one hurts but take KENTUCKY +2 (1 Unit) Weird things happen when Georgia goes to Kentucky, and I don't trust this Dawgs offense to suddenly figure out how to block. I do trust them to stop Kentucky's run, but that just leads to a close game where maybe Georgia wins by 1 if they are lucky.

Alabama v. LSU +7 - Give me LSU +7 (1 Unit) The public is going to be on Alabama because they've covered so much. In fact the line would tell you to always take Alabama, so it's sort of shocking that Vegas tossed out a low number. I'll tell you why they did, because the sharps are loading up on LSU in a close one.

FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK!

If you want to be dumb and waste some money on a big payday, VANDERBILT +1500 against Auburn begs to have a look. Why? Because Auburn is schizo and Vandy isn't as horrible as they've have you believe. Is Vandy good? No. Is Auburn bad? No. BUT Auburn has shown they can throw a shoe against anybody and they've got Georgia on the road next week who they will take way more seriously than Vandy.

Georgia vs. Florida Week 9 SEC Game Film Review

When I sat in the stadium for the Georgia-Florida game I wasn't expecting much. I got even less. The game was awful if you are a Georgia fan, an SEC fan, or a fan of decent football. It wasn't fun to watch I would imagine even as a Gator fan because they were far from awesome on the field. They won, Georgia didn't, and that's what matters. However, I don't think anybody walked away entertained by this sideshow. I'll look at Georgia in depth, whereas I usually look at the winning team, because I think we all need to hopefully explain what went wrong. And I'm a Georgia fan, so screw it I'm making the rules here.

GEORGIA OFFENSE:

Georgia can't run the ball. Their offensive line is the reason for that, but the play calling and formations aren't doing them any favors. I'll even explain why the receivers are causing problems for the offense, and it all came in Georgia's first series on the goal line. Let me break it down for you.

This is Georgia on 2nd and goal from the 2. What I want you to note is the bunched goal line formation. This is a power running set with everyone close in, and Florida has responded by putting all 11 players in the box. After all, there's nothing for them to really cover right now. As it so happens, Georgia jumped offsides on a dumb penalty, so we'll never know if this would have worked.

Here's 2nd and Goal after the penalty. Note that Georgia is still in a power running formation with one WR on the outside. Everyone and their dog knows that Georgia is running the ball. Florida has put literally 10 guys in the yellow box because THEY know Georgia is going to run the ball. It's impossible to run against a 10 man box unless your offensive line is awesome, and Georgia's is far from awesome. So when Georgia does run the ball, here's what happens:

Note the yellow box. That's #83 TE Jeb Blazevich getting horsewhipped to the inside by a Florida defensive lineman who is about to blow up this run. On top you'll see two more Florida linemen overrunning our single blocker trying to take them on. Both of those guys are going to get home to Chubb as well and kill this play. Why? Because it's a predictable call and you have to check out of it to a pass. The formation begged for a pass. But Georgia didn't check out and instead got hit with a loss.

Here's 3rd and 7 to the goal, and we know it's a pass. Two receivers are circled on the bottom, and there's a TE offset on that side near the line, also there's a TE on top. I've circled what should happen. Florida is showing again a 9 man box with a blitz coming. The TE's should stay in there to protect, but they don't. They go out into pass lanes. The WR's at the bottom should run to different sides of the field to open things up. The ideal throw is a quick strike to the WR in blue as he streaks to the center on a quick slant. Again, because Florida is showing blitz. This isn't hard.

Here's what happens. Both TE's go into crossing coverage in the middle of the field running at each other. Both WR's at the bottom run down into each other. You now have Florida blitzing 7 and dropping 4 into coverage. And you know what sucks? Both Florida DBs have the space covered at the top, and ONE Florida DB can cover the bottom space. If Eason picks any guy right now, he's throwing into double coverage because the receivers are in the same area. You should NEVER have two receivers in the same area on a play, let alone have two in the same are in DIFFERENT AREAS. Eason now only has two choices, and he should have four because they are all in the same space. 

And time is running out because of the blitz. It was supposed to be a pick-play that never developed because you can't run a pick with a blitz coming that far down the field. This is either terrible play design, or stupid receivers who can't run routes, or both. Either way, it failed and Georgia kicked a FG. And it went like this all day long. Florida's defense looked like they were stealing signs from the Georgia dugout.

The problem is that every time Georgia comes out in a power running set against Florida, that's a bad idea. If anything Georgia should have been more concerned about getting to the edge, spreading Florida out, and getting away from the disaster that Florida's defense can create in the middle, but they didn't. Georgia did have one drive in the 2nd quarter that ended in a TD, but that was because they decided to throw on 4 of the 6 plays down the field, and got a pass interference call to get to the end zone. That never happened again in the second half. In fact the Georgia offense never GOT TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FIFTY IN THE SECOND HALF. That should tell you what you need to know.

GEORGIA DEFENSE:

I'll give them credit, the Dawgs defense stood tall for a long time. In fact, Georgia had the lead until a Gator drive that started with five minutes left in the second half. That was because in the prior possessions, it went like this for the Gators: INT, PUNT, TD, PUNT, PUNT. Honestly, if you told me in 5 possessions that Georgia would only give up 7 points in the first half? AND get a turnover? That's great news and gives us a great chance to win. The problem is that Florida kept getting short fields thanks to the special teams totally botching the punting game. Here's Florida's starting field position in the game by possession: FL25, FL37, UGA39 (off a fumble turnover), FL25, FL 37, UGA 44 (bad punt), FL 34, UGA 49, FL 44, FL30, FL21, UGA 47, UGA 45. 

If you're noticing that at no point did Florida ever start inside their own 20, that's correct. If you're noticing that five times Florida started in UGA territory, that's right too. If you're also noticing the average starting field position for Florida was around their own 40 yard line, welp, that's also correct. Which isn't a recipe for success. But let's take a look at the Florida TD before the half because it was a turning point in the game, and Georgia never led again. In fact they never SCORED again. So here we go.

It's 3rd down. Georgia has a chance to get off the field if they can make a stop. They've been playing in a standard nickel thus far for most of the protections, but the defense is about to make a gamble. It's single coverage at the top, and man on man at the bottom with the two WRs represented by the black boxes. There's 2 safeties behind the play covering the deep ball. I have two problems with this. First look at the orange circle in the middle with #35 CB Aaron Davis. I have no idea who he thinks he's covering. What he does is pull back to the left and leave Florida's #81 Antonio Callaway in single coverage at the top with #14 Malkolm Parrish. While I like Parrish okay, Callaway is by far the Gator's best receiver, and it's stupid to put one man on him with no help on a critical third down. But the reason he's alone is because Georgia is showing blitz in the middle with the yellow circle. When you blitz and you leave cornerbacks on islands, you better get there.

Georgia doesn't get there. This is the play about a second before Florida throws the ball to Callaway. Now, Parrish falls down on the play so it's an easy back shoulder reception for a first down, but that's not even the point. It's tough to defend that play standing up when the entirerty of your blitz package is literally still 5 yards away from the QB with no real shot at getting there. Look at the RB in the backfield. He correctly read blitz and is waiting in the middle to block somebody. EXCEPT THERE'S NOBODY TO BLOCK. Nobody got even close on this play so it was an easy pitch and catch completion. That was the problem all day long. Even though Georgia got 3 sacks in the game, they didn't get there on 3rd downs when it mattered most. And as a result Florida went 9-18 on 3rd down conversions. It's almost impossible to win a game if your defense allows a 50% conversion rate, unless your offense is just blistering hot. And Georgia's offense was far from hot.

This one is an example of how bad angles get you in trouble. It's a screen pass for Florida. #2 for Georgia has position on the blocker and just has to keep going to the sideline to cut off the RB. Right now the RB has two choices. He can follow to the sideline and try to get an edge, but #2 will meet him there if he keeps going, or he can cut it up behind his lead blocker who is actually behind the play right now and get tackled by #5 from Georgia.

Unless of course #2 tries to stop, runs into the blocker, and #5 goes around the blocker to the outside effectively taking himself out of the play. Both lose contain and as a result the Florida RB makes it to the edge and continues to run for another 8 yards, getting a yard short of a first down which Florida will then convert to get them in the red zone. The play breaks down because the defense doesn't know what it's supposed to be doing here, and one blocker in #65 effectively washes out THREE Georgia players on the play. That's not supposed to happen. 

Florida eventually goes on to score on that series on a simple 2 yard run after a pass interference call. But really how many times could the Dawg defense stand up against these short fields? If anything it was a miracle they held the Gators to 24 points, and only 231 total yards of offense. Florida only ran the ball for about 2.1 yards a carry, but the Georgia offense was so horrific they couldn't even get out of their own shadow. Which meant eventually that Florida was on the field with the ball for 37 and a half minutes. And unless you're Baylor scoring at will, giving the other team the ball for 37 minutes is a recipe for disaster.

CONCLUSION:

It didn't matter what Georgia did in the second half defensively because the game was already over. Georgia scored all the points they were going to get in the first half, and they did it with passing. The only weapon Georgia has right now is Jacob Eason, and he's mostly running for his life. His receivers do him zero favors by running bad routes and dropping open passes. The line does him no favors because it's a pass-blocking disaster that has him fleeing to the edge without setting his feet. There is no "pocket" for the pocket passing Eason to throw. That means if the running game is stymied, Georgia is screwed. And Florida managed to hold Georgia to 1 yard a carry. One. Solitary. Yard. Per. Carry. That's how you lose a football game my friends, and that's how Georgia may lose a few more if they aren't careful and get their offensive act together.

My suggestion? You're not a power running team. Setting up in power running formations only gives the defense an advantage, not you. Which means to get things going you're going to have to spread teams out, get some lanes open, and use your edges. You are going to have to get Eason better at the playaction fake to get teams to respect it. Your TEs actually have to block instead of wandering down the field in bad pass routes that do nothing. And on top of all that, the running-backs actually have to hit the holes when they are there, and not juke around in the backfield because they will close fast. Does it sound like alot? That's because it is, but make no mistake if Georgia doesn't figure out how to score some points next week, Kentucky will beat them outright.

Alabama v. Texas A&M: Week 8 Game Film Review

Let's make something abundantly clear about this Alabama game. The offense didn't play well, despite the score you see at the end. And that sounds odd given that they won by 19 points, 33-14, but you'll agree with me that when you watch the tape, the offense was not firing on all cylinders, and did not take advantage of several opportunities to turn this game into the ultimate rout. Alabama won, so they get the focus in this week's review.

ALABAMA OFFENSE:

Now many of you will say, wait a second Ben, Alabama had 450 yards of offense and 28 first downs, and you're saying they didn't play well. Yes, I'm saying that and here's why. Alabama only had one offensive TD in the first half out of 4 trips to the red zone. That's not acceptable for a team with the kind of running firepower that Alabama possesses. And yet, they'd run the ball to get into the 20s, and inexplicably start to throw it around as they got close to the end zone. I don't understand it, but then again I'm not the playcaller.

My basic point is that when you only score 27 points on 450 yards, you're wasting possessions. Think of yards as nothing more than an indicator of game dominance. Similar to time of possession. If you have high yardage and high TOP you should win a game. Sometimes you don't because of turnovers, or allowing the other team high yardage, or you fail to convert inside the red zone and settle for 3s.

And don't think for a second this game wasn't in doubt. There was a time in the second quarter where Alabama was trailing by a point. They had to have an offensive TD and a fumble return TD to put the game away for good, but A&M played Alabama tough the whole way, and did a great job defensively playing Alabama in throwing situations. However, they weren't immune to the deep ball and here's an example of how Lane Kiffin can outscheme your defense.

Here's the opening formation Alabama is coming out in a shotgun 1-back set, with trips to the left, and a TE offset on the left side. They are overloading the left, but the key is that the receiver is blue is a decoy. He's not an eligible receiver because in order to be eligible you have to be the furthest receiver out on that side on the line of scrimmage. In this case, the yellow receiver is the furthest out on the line, and the orange receiver is offset a yard back from the line of scrimmage. Because the orange receiver is set back a yard, he is eligible as well. As is the TE offset in the middle. Remember, you're eligible if you're not on the line of scrimmage. You're ineligible if there's two guys on the line of scrimmage ON THE SAME SIDE.

Confusing I know. But just remember that blue is ineligible and can't cross the line of scrimmage now. He's like a lineman and if he runs downfield they get a penalty for illegal man downfield. The yellow receiver is going to be the guy who gets the ball. The orange receiver will run a straight fly route down the left sideline.

Here's the play post-snap and ball in the air. As you can see the receiver on the lower right in red never crossed the line of scrimmage and confused the LB in the red box so he's covering nobody. That leaves 3 DBs to cover three WR's down the field in one-on-one coverage. The receiver at the bottom in the orange box is covered. The receiver at the top in the orange box is mostly covered, but probably could make a catch for a 15-20 yard gain. But the receiver in the yellow? He's blown by his guy and he's about to make the big catch for 46 yards. That's ArDarius Stewart, and if QB Jalen Hurts hits him in stride, it's a housecall. He underthrew it slightly so it was only a huge playgain. Still, it shows you how Alabama can really put you in difficult situations with their formations alone.

ALABAMA DEFENSE:

The bread and butter of Alabama is still just as good as ever. Let's take a look at two things. One is on special teams coverage where Alabama got away with a targeting call. It was a kick return and Speedy Noil, one of A&Ms best receivers and players was coming back across the middle when this happened.

Yeah that's Speedy's head getting hit with the top of the Alabama player's helmet. Folks, there's only one clear part of the targeting rule and it's this: "No player shall target and make forcible contact with another player with the crown (top) of his helmet." When in question, it's a foul in the rulebook. That picture to me is VERY much in question, which means it's a foul, and he should have been thrown out of the game. He wasn't. Play didn't even stop. There was no flag, no review, and no mention of it on the field other than that people bringing it up in the booth. And they should have because the refs blatantly missed this one. When it's a team like Alabama, that inevitably brings up bias, especially because another player on A&M was (rightly) ejected for targeting later in the game.

The second thing to bring up is how frightening the front 6-7 of Alabama really is. How frightening?

The yellow circle is #93 Johnathon Allen literally Superman-style sacking the QB after beating 2, maybe 3 blocks to get there. Look at him. His legs are literally parallel to the ground. He's in full on dive smashing his face into the QB's chest for a sack. That dude weighs 291 pounds and he's got THAT kind of launch in him. Good lord. That's totally insane. Can you not see how insane that is? LOOK AGAIN, IT'S HALLOWEEN ALMOST THAT #$@% IS SCARY!

Texas A&M normally scored around 36 points on average against SEC teams this year coming into this game with Alabama. Alabama held them to 14 points. It's not even really fair right now with who good Alabama is playing. The absolute only way you can beat them, and it may not be possible short of the NFL level of talent, is to have an offensive line that's good enough to give the QB time to throw it down the field. Alabama is vulnerable in the secondary, that's why they gave up 2 passing touchdowns. But you have to have enough time to throw, and the Bama front 7 isn't going to give you that luxury often.

CONCLUSIONS:

Unless Alabama gets in their own way and turns the ball over, there's only one team left on this schedule who has the offensive firepower to beat them, and that's Auburn. Given that it's a rivalry game, that one looms larger and larger. My concern is that regardless of how it plays out, Auburn is primarily a confusion based running team, not a passing team. And if Alabama decides to stack up and make you throw? I think Auburn gets beat badly. But who knows? I've underrated Auburn all year. Maybe this time they've got an answer nobody else has had thus far.

I doubt it though.

SEC Picks Week 8

Hey I lost another 4 units last week because Tennessee crapped the bed and because Arkansas and Ole Miss decided to not score enough. Oh and Georgia lost to Vandy as a 14 point favorite. At least Florida covered. 1-3-1 on the week, and that's bad. But I'll never stop because despite my inept SEC year, I don't think anybody is doing a lot better picking this hamfisted mess of a conference against the spread.

Straight up Picks:

UMASS v. South Carolina - SOUTH CAROLINA
Texas A&M v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Middle Tennessee v. Missouri - MISSOURI
Arkansas v. Auburn - AUBURN
MS State v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Tennessee State v. Vandy - VANDY
Ole Miss v. LSU - LSU

Betting Picks:

Texas A&M v. Alabama -18: I'll take ALABAMA -18 (1 Unit). I said early on that A&M would be the only team to give Alabama a run for their money. They might, but the way Alabama is playing right now, I'm not going against the Tide anymore on the spread.

Middle Tennessee v. Missouri -6.5: I'll take MISSOURI -6.5 (3 Units). Middle Tennessee isn't a good team, and Missouri absolutely has to have this win to get bowl eligible. It's a must win and I think the Tigers will treat it that way.

Arkansas v. Auburn -9.5: OK this if your chance AUBURN -9.5 (1 Unit) I'm finally taking you to win something. I've been burned enough and I'm jumping on the train. Don't screw it up.

MS State v. Kentucky +3: I'm taking KENTUCKY +3 (2 Units) simply because I think MS State might be the worst offensive team I've seen in the SEC West in forever.

LONG SHOT FLYER PICK:

If you're not on the Auburn train, ARKANSAS +275 is a good way to make some money if you expect them to fall over. If you don't, take my bet above on Auburn -9.5 and let the chips fall where they may.

Each SEC Head Coach's First Year

Instead of doing a game film review this week I'm doing a piece on coaches, because sometimes I think we forget exactly what happens during the first year of a head coaches tenure. It usually sucks. It usually has a good win and one or two head scratching losses. And usually fans overreact about it until the next few years So what I'm going to do is look at the first year for all the head coaches in the SEC and what happened. Maybe this will help put the Kirby Smart loss to Vandy in perspective.

DEREK MASON

Mason was hired in 2014 to take over the Vanderbilt program as his first ever HC (Head Coach) job. Vanderbilt went 3-9 and 0-8 in the conference that year. It was an especially tough pill to swallow for a Vandy team that won 9 games and went to a bowl game in 2013. Vandy won 4 games last year. This year he's already won 3, maybe he gets to 5. When your goal as Vandy is just making a bowl game, that's progress.

KEVIN SUMLIN

Kevin Sumlin was hired to be the A&M coach in 2012. That team had a Heisman Trophy winner named Johnny Manziel, and A&M went 11-2. It was an incredible head start to that program, and to date Sumlin hasn't had another team even approach that kind of win total. Maybe he has one this year, but that remains to be seen.

However, Sumlin's first Head Coaching job wasn't A&M, he was a Head Coach at Houston before he took the job. At Houston he went 8-5, and he lost a game to a 4-8 Marshall team. He also beat a ranked Tulsa team that finished 11-3.

WILL MUSCHAMP

Muschamp was hired by South Carolina this year, and it's going poorly. But his actual first year as a HC was the unforgettable stint at Florida. Muschamp went 7-6 in 2011 in his first year with the Gators, losing to every single ranked team they played, but somehow beating Ohio State in a bowl game. The next year his Gator team went 11-2 and won the SEC East, and lost the Sugar Bowl. It went downhill quickly from there.

HUGH FREEZE

Freeze was hired by Ole Miss in 2012, and his team went 7-6 that year. They had nowhere to go but up after a 2-10 campaign under Houston Nutt. Ole Miss had the terrible loss that year to VANDY, but also beat a ranked Mississippi State team in the Egg Bowl.

Before that Hugh was the head coach of Arkansas State, and he went 10-2 in the one year he was there. And before that in his first HC job he was at Lambuth which you've likely never heard of, and his first year there he went 8-4.

BARRY ODOM

2016 is Barry Odom's first year as a head coach, and he's saddled with a Missouri program that needs direction. Right now they are 2-4 and I wouldn't expect them to get to bowl game.

DAN MULLEN

Mullen got the MS State job in 2009, and it was his first HC job. The team went 5-7 and missed a bowl game. He actually lost to Kevin Sumlin's Houston team that year, go figure. However, he did have a surprising victory against a ranked Ole Miss team in the Egg Bowl. To date, Mississippi State has never missed a bowl game under Mullen, and they are 4-2 in bowl games.

LES MILES

Yes, I realize he's been fired this season but we're doing him over the interim coach. Les was hired back in 2005 to be the LSU head coach. His team went 11-2 that season and won the SEC West. Later in 2007, they won a national title.

However, Les' first HC job was in 2001 for Oklahoma State. His team went 4-7, had an embarrassing loss to Southern Mississippi, but then somehow actually beat #4 in the nation Oklahoma at the end of the season.

MARK STOOPS

In 2013, Kentucky hired Mark Stoops in his first HC job. His Kentucky team went 2-10 and 0-8 in the conference. They lost to everybody except Miami (OH) and Alabama State. Since that year, Stoops high mark at Kentucky is a 5-7 record twice.

KIRBY SMART

Kirby's first HC job is at Georgia this year and why I'm writing this piece. Duh.

JIM MCELWAIN

McElwain was hired by Florida in 2015. He went 10-4 and they won the East that year, before losing their last 3 games in a row because their offense couldn't function once their QB was suspended.

However, that wasn't his first HC job. His first job was at Colorado State in 2012. That team went 4-8, lost to a 4-8 Wyoming team, and had almost no good wins to speak of. That team was awful. By 2014 that CSU team went 10-2 under McElwain.

BUTCH JONES

Butch's first year at Tennessee was in 2013 and the team had a forgettable 5-7 year where the highlight win was beating #11 South Carolina. They also lost to Vanderbilt, which had to really sting since it's the in-state rival.

Before that, Butch was a coach at Cincinnati, hired in 2010. That team went 4-8 that year. They subsequently won 2 Conference championships in a row.

Before that in his first HC job, Butch was hired at Central Michigan in 2008 and went 8-6, winning the conference somehow. When he left Central Michigan in 2009, the team went 11-2. Butch has improved the program basically everywhere he's been.

GUS MALZAHN

Malzahn was hired by Auburn in 2013, and Auburn won the SEC in what you could call the "Horseshoe Year." They went on to lose in the national championship when that luck ran out. Yes, I'm taking a shot. I'm still not over that stupid tip play against Georgia. Anyway that team went 11-2.

However, that wasn't his first HC job. His first job was at Arkansas State where his team went 9-3. They ended up winning the GODADDY Bowl, so that's neat. They also lost a game to Western Kentucky somehow.

BRET BIELMA

Bielma was hired by Arkansas in 2013. His team went 3-9 and was generally awful. But his first HC job was many years prior in Wisconsin, back in 2006 when the team went 12-1, and lost out on a national title shot by losing to #6 Michigan. So Bret sort of did things backwards. He had his first job ever be awesome and his second job immediately suck the first year. However, both programs experienced success under his coaching. Wisconsin won 3 conference titles in a row.

NICK SABAN

Nick was hired by Alabama in 2007, and his team went 7-6 with a bunch of vacated wins. He lost to Louisiana Monroe that year which I've brought up before. He also beat #16 Arkansas and #20 Tennesseee.

In the job before that, Nick was hired by LSU in 2000. That team went 8-4, beat ranked MS State and Georgia Tech. Lost to freaking UAB somehow.

In the job before that, Nick was hired by Michigan State in 1995. That team went 6-5-1, yes we had ties back then apparently. What a dark age. That team beat #7 Michigan, and tied a 4 win Purdue team.

In the job before that, Nick was hired to be a first time HC at Toledo in 1990. That Rockets team went 9-2 and won the conference. And yet they still had a stupid loss to 5-6 Navy that season.


CONCLUSION

The summary is that if you're a first year ever HC, you're going to have a hard time for the most part. If you're an established head coach coming to the SEC, sometimes it's better, sometimes it's not. But for the most part these coaches in the SEC have improved their teams over time, and it takes 2-3 years to see those results if they are going to happen. So don't jump all over a coach in his first year. It makes you look silly.

SEC Picks Week 7

Time for my awful picks! How many am I down at this point? Who is keeping track? Oh that would be me. I went 1-1 last week, but lost 2 units because MS State. Oh well that's down 14 units now. Let's keep the misery train rolling! I'm not stopping until I figure this out or you make a bunch of money picking against me. Either way!

STRAIGHT UP PICKS:

Mississippi State v. BYU - BYU
Vanderbilt v. Georgia - GEORGIA
Alabama v. Tennessee - ALABAMA
Mizzou v. Florida - FLORIDA
Ole Miss v. Arkansas - OLE MISS
Southern Miss v. LSU - LSU

BETTING PICKS: (Units next to pick)

Mississippi State v. BYU -7: BYU (1 UNIT) Here's the thing, BYU is at home for this one, and Mississippi State is AWFUL defensively and at the QB position, and basically catching the ball. They can run, and that's about it. If you sell out to stop it, which BYU should, they will win the game easily.

Vanderbilt v. Georgia -14: GEORGIA (1 UNIT) Georgia is not great offensively right now, but they've done a great job against Vandy at home over the last 3 meetings, winning games in the 40s. Vanderbilt is averaging about 9 points against anybody in the power 5. Can Georgia put up 24? I think they can.

Mizzou v. Florida -13.5: FLORIDA (2 UNITS) Florida gets their QB back and they look like an entirely different offense with him in the game. Also, they are rested for a week off and did nothing but gameplan for Missouri since the LSU game was cancelled. It's in the swamp and it gets ugly fast.

Alabama v. Tennessee +12.5: TENNESSEE (2 UNITS) This game traditionally has been close, and Tennessee hasn't been railroaded by anybody. Alabama is phenomenal, but it's a rival game against a team that they only beat 19-14 last year in Tuscaloosa, the year Alabama won it all. I see this one getting tight late.

Ole Miss v. Arkansas O/U 67.5: OVER 67.5 (3 UNITS) Both these teams can score and both these teams can go fast to do it. I would expect at least 10 TDs total in this game if not more. I'll take the over here.

Game Film Review Week 6: Auburn v. MS State

I picked this game because I wondered if I made an awful pick of MS State, and that I was wrong about Auburn who might be a better football team than I'm giving them credit for. Here's the truth: Yes, I made a horrible pick to take Mississippi State because they are so much WORSE than I even thought. Auburn is the same team, but they took advantage of the numerous mistakes made by MS State. By the time the half ended it was 35-0, and the game was effectively over. That's why this game shouldn't be used as a reason to believe Auburn has figured something out. They are the same team they've been all year.

AUBURN OFFENSE:

Auburn is primarily running out of a spread option set with 4 receivers, and a running back standing next to the QB in the shotgun. What's interesting to me is that when Sean White plays QB, he's not really a threat to run the ball out of that set, so what you're really looking at is a straight shotgun play action fake more than the true QB running option. Auburn can switch this look slightly by bringing in a TE to play protection on either side, slightly set back off the line. That may look like running protection but Auburn will run or pass out of any set. Their offense is based heavily on confusion.

Confusing Mississippi State wasn't difficult. With the exception of a tip that went for an interception on the very first drive, Auburn scored TDs on 4 of their 6 offensive possessions in the first half. Why? Because Mississippi State couldn't figure out what was coming. You could tell they wanted to stop the run, and they were trying to stack up the box for that. However, when Auburn decided to pass that puts the secondary by itself on certain coverage. And it's made even worse when MS State blew coverage.

Case in point. The Auburn receiver has run by two defenders for MS State, and they are at least 4 yards behind him. It's not like this guy got a head start, the safety bit on a stop and go route, and he ate them both alive. That's the problem, Auburn isn't suddenly doing stuff you never see on tape, and they aren't doing anything a good defense can't cover. But man if you make a mistake they'll beat to death because they are extremely opportunistic. That's their #1 best asset as a team.

That and the running game. Kamryn Pettyway their primary RB had 169 yards in this game, and he did most of it in small chunks. It wasn't like he busted loose for a couple of big play (his biggest was only 29 yards) what he did was 4 yards, 3 yards, 6 yards, 8 yards, 4 yards, over and over and over. He went for 39 carries for 4.3 a carry. That's a ton of running and even tougher when you think about how much tempo that Auburn runs as a team. They are getting to the line and trying to wear you out. Kudos goes to the offensive linemen who can play in that scheme, including standout Tackle #70 Robert Leff. At 6-6 and 299, he was laying people out with run blocks, and providing great protection on the edge. He looks NFL caliber right now, so check for him on Sundays.

AUBURN DEFENSE:

Again, Auburn is a team that will capitalize. They got TWO, not one but TWO sack fumbles in the first half of this game. Why? Because the QB for MS State Nick Fitzgerald is flat awful (disregard his total stats, they came in garbage time in the 2nd half after it was already 35-0). Also the protection for MS State was a joke, and Auburn took advantage. See below.

This is the first strip sack. Note the guy #3 for Auburn turning the edge with a free shot at the QB on his blind side. Also note the LT is LOOKING THE WRONG WAY.  #55 for MS State didn't even get out of his stance for the first part of that play, allowing #3 to blow by him for the sack-fumble. I don't know if he thought it was a different snap count, or he heard a whistle, or he was hearing voices of dead relatives. Either way, it was one of the worst mental errors I've seen this year looking at film. It's one thing to get beat, it's another thing to let a guy go free because you didn't even get out of your stance.

Auburn's defense is bend-don't-break, but against MS State they barely had to bend. They spent the first half of the game playing a nickel set and basically daring MS State to throw the ball, which MS State can't do well. As a result they forced three 3'and'outs, 2 sack fumbles, and a missed FG. Does it even matter that they went to a prevent in the second half and allowed a garbage time 2 TDs? No, it matters not. The game was well in hand at that point, and MS State should be freaking ashamed of their team in this game.

Overally, Auburn will get TONS of love for this game because people likely didn't watch it and just saw the score. The reality is they will face a much better set of teams over the next two weeks in Arkansas (who can score big) and Ole Miss (who can also score big). Look for some crazy shootouts that may or may not have Auburn returning back to earth.

SEC Picks Week 6

Week 5 was the worst bloodbath I've taken in 3 years. Good lord. I went 0-5 on my picks and 7 units in the crapper. Upside is I can't get worse than zero, but I'm having a major problem predicting this conference this year. And apparently I'm not alone because several of the bettors I've talked to are avoiding SEC games now. Why? Because honestly outside of Alabama the conference doesn't look that great, and they certainly aren't consistent at all. So with that being said, we might need to shift strategy a little, and pick with higher units on fewer games instead of spreading out the issue. Down 12 units now. Yikes.

Straight Up Picks:

Auburn v. Mississippi State -  MS STATE
LSU v. Florida - FLORIDA
Tennessee v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M
Vanderbilt v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Alabama v. Arkansas - ALABAMA
Georgia v. South Carolina - GEORGIA

Betting Picks:

Vanderbilt v. Kentucky - take KENTUCKY -3 (2 UNITS) - there's no reason to believe either of these teams are good, but the home team has a better shot in this one, and I don't think Vanderbilt can score on anybody this year.

LSU v. Florida - take FLORIDA (3 UNITS) - I like Florida in this game at home if they play it in Florida. If that move this one to Baton Rogue, take it off the board.

Auburn v. Mississippi State - take MS STATE (4 UNITS) - I'll fade Auburn almost all year long, but they are favored on the road when they've yet to play a single true road game all season. Why would you trust them to go into a hostile environment at night? Yes, they've scored 58 and 51 against cupcakes, but they've averaged 17 points against teams with a pulse. Meanwhile I think MS State can score 20+ and they are looking to make a statement after a bad LSU loss.

May the odds be in your favor this week!

Texas A&M v. South Carolina: SEC Game Film Review Week 5

South Carolina is a bad football team in many facets this year, but none more-so than their offense. It really comes through when you watch the team struggle on film. They can't run the ball because defenses have zero respect for their passing game so they crowd the box. They can't pass the ball because they don't have any idea who should be playing QB (both Perry Orth and Brandon McIlwain aren't very talented). As a result, they have the lowest points per game in the SEC, and the 126th scoring offense in the nation. Only one team is worse, and that's Georgia State (sorry Georgia State people).

With that in mind, Texas A&M should have absolutely murdered the Gamecocks. They didn't. They only won the game by 11 points, and they only beat them by that many because of some 4th quarter sloppiness by South Carolina. It easily could have been in doubt because South Carolina's special teams was awful. They missed 2 FGs costing themselves 6 points, and they fumbled the ball on a late punt when they had a chance to at least tie the game.

Texas A&M Offense:

When you watch the Aggie offense on tape with Trevor Knight at QB you notice some very similar formations. They love to run shotgun spread style for most of their plays. They love to open up the lanes for the possibility of a QB run, which Knight is pretty adept at doing. In fact, he had 84 yards on 12 carries with a TD. So if you think that Knight is just another boring pocket style QB, think again. He's mobile and he's dangerous with his feet. But he's also dangerous turning the ball over as he fumbled once off his own knee and gave the ball back to South Carolina.

Trevor can also throw the ball, but I don't get the sense that he's awesome at it, and that's what caused some issues for them in this game. He's a good down the field passer if you're open, and decent in the short game, but like most college QBs he's had issues in the intermediate level or throwing consistently into tighter windows. That's not abnormal anymore because most QBs by comparative standards to several years ago focus more on running around and less on actual passing footwork. But I digress. He does have one major asset in #19 Jeremy Tabuyo who made some fantastic catches including a 1-handed variety over the top of defender. He's got some talent and really shines on down the field.

The running game for A&M looks strong led by #5 Trayveon Williams who ran for almost 100 yards in the game. One of the plays was his 49 yards TD run where he shook loose up the middle and scampered down the right sideline before hurdling a falling player into the end zone. That play was sprung by #76 Colton Prater who is just a freshman. If he's making down the field blocks like that this early in his career, he's got a bright future.

Texas A&M Defense:

The defense really kept A&M in the game, because their pass rush gave South Carolina fits all day. #33 Shaan Washington had a sack and a forced fumble in the game, while #10 Daeshon Hall had 2 sacks off the edge. Hall looks like a beast out there at 6-6 and 270 pounds. If he's not on several people's draft boards I'd be shocked, because he's got the size and speed to really make an impact at the next level. This all happened while other NFL prospect Miles Garrett was on the bench with an injury.

The secondary also had a good day with #23 Armani Watts getting an interception off a tip that he created. The play was going over the middle and Watts stuck his hand in long enough to tip the ball high in the air, then located it moving backwards and made the catch. It was a spectacular athletic play that not many defensive backs could make. Yet Watts made it look rather easy, and it was one of the turning points in the game as it shut down a 7 play drive that could have given South Carolina the lead.

South Carolina:

I'll cover the team all at once because there's not much that's good here, but here's what I do like on this team. The first play of the game was a 75 yard TD run by #25 AJ Turner, who looked pretty good out there for that one play. He managed to hold the sideline and juke A&M's safety #14 Justin Evans out of his shoes, then take off for paydirt. The play was sprung by a down the field block by #70 Alan Knott, a junior who buried a linebacker trying to make the stop for a simple 7 yard gain. That block and Turner's footwork turned it into a scoring play, the only TD that South Carolina had on the day.

That's the bad part. Outside of the first minute of the game, South Carolina never really threatened the end zone. In fact the furthest they ever made it down the field for the rest of the game was the Texas A&M 25 yard line. That means that for the entire game, South Carolina ran exactly 0 plays in the red zone. That's impossible. And yet it happened. South Carolina's offense is so bad, they can't even get to a TD area unless it's a wide open running play from the other side of the field.

What makes it worse is that the defense was honestly pretty good. They did a great job of holding A&M to just 14 points until 12 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You do that for almost any other SEC team out there, and they are very likely to win the whole game. But not South Carolina, because I don't think they have a true identity. They want to be a running team, but they don't have the talent on the lines to make it happen, so outside the huge play, the average carry per rush was about 2.6 yards. That won't get it done. They also want to be a high percentage passing team, but if you don't have a deep threat (they connected on one deep pass late) then what's to stop a team from stacking the 10 yard box and waiting for you to throw short passes? Also, their QBs have no idea how to deal with the blitz, and I would blitz constantly if I'm an opposing DC.

All in all, South Carolina will be lucky to get bowl eligible this year, as most of us expected. A&M if they play the way against SC with the SEC West? They'll lose 3 games minimum. They need to get their offense going in the right direction, because their defense is the strongest part of their team right now, and that's atypical for a Kevin Sumlin squad.

SEC College Football Picks Week 5

OK so last week Georgia got annihilated and I talked myself into that pick because of my bias. I fully admit that. The thing is even though my SEC picks went 1-3, which means we're down 5 units now, the rest of my picks that week went 7-3 in the other conferences. So I know the system works, but I also know now that it devalued teams with hard starting opponents like Ole Miss. With that in mind, I'll be avoiding Ole Miss for at least 3 more weeks while they normalize. Also, the Florida injury still plays a huge part in what they are doing. With that in mind, they are off my board as well.

STRAIGHT UP PICKS:

Florida v. Vandy - FLORIDA
Louisiana-Monre v. Auburn - AUBURN
Tennessee v. Georgia - TENNESSEE
Texas A&M v. South Carolina - TEXAS A&M
Memphis v. Mississippi - MISSISSIPPI
Kentucky v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Missouri v. LSU - MISSOURI

BETTING PICKS (units indicated)

Lousiana-Monroe v. Auburn -33.5 - Take LOUSIANA MONROE +33.5 (1 UNIT). Auburn's offense is moving the ball better, but LM can score 17+ points against anybody. So the question is do you believe that Auburn will hang 51 on them? I'm going to guess probably not with a unit on the line.

Tennessee v. Georgia +4 - Take TENNESSEE -4 (1 UNIT). As much as it pains me, Georgia isn't a good football team right now. Yes, it's a trap line. Yes, Tennessee has yet to play a single road game this season. And that's why we're only going one unit. But right now the trench battle is in TN's favor, and Kirby has never really proven he can defend well against mobile QBs even at Alabama, let alone with inferior talent.

Kentucky v. Alabama - Take ALABAMA -35 (1 UNIT). Alabama is 3-1 ATS this season while Kentucky is 1-3, and that's why Vegas will continue to give you really high lines. The thing is, I've got Alabama as a 40 point better team on a neutral field, which at home puts them around 6 TDs better than a woeful Kentucky team. If Saban won't even call off the dogs against Kent State, he might just run up 60 on Kentucky.

Missouri v. LSU - Take MISSOURI +13 (2 UNITS). LSU just fired their coach. Missouri can throw on almost anybody, and LSU hasn't proven they can do a damn thing on offense. Yet they are a 13 point favorite at home. Maybe it's a trap too, but I don't see how LSU is that much better than Mizzou. Certainly LSU can win, but by 2 scores? The only team they've done that against is Jacksonville State.

Texas A&M v. South Carolina O/U 47.5 - Give me the OVER 47.5 (2 UNITS). I love the over play here because A&M is averaging out on normalized total points around 68 in their games. South Carolina is somewhere in the 48 on points on their totals.

FLYER PICK OF THE WEEK:

We've gotten close on a few of these, but hit none. This might be the week. Give me MISSOURI getting +380 going into death valley. Why not? Maybe the coaching change sparks the LSU team and they rally, but I don't think coaching was an issue in throwing the football, and LSU hasn't done that in several years.

SEC College Football Picks Week 4

Welp, last week was a disaster as Alabama couldn't hold on to an 18 point lead and an easy cover with 5 minutes left. Instead, I got beat on my 2 unit play, went 1-4 on the week, and we're down 3 units now going into Week 4. But that's fine, because Vegas made a big payday last week. Nobody I know on the picking circuit did well with the crazy outcomes. You're going to have those weeks, so let's not make it two in a row.

STRAIGHT UP PICKS

Kent State v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Georgia v. Ole Miss - GEORGIA
Mississippi State v. Massachusetts - MS STATE
Florida v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Western Kentucky - WESTERN KENTUCKY
LSU v. Auburn - LSU
South Carolina v. Kentucky - SOUTH CAROLINA
Arkansas v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M

BETTING PICKS (1 Unit every play this week)

I don't really like a lot of games from an action standpoint this week. You have a bunch of close spreads in these games, and in many cases the games are within one score. Five games on the slate have a 7 point spread or less.

I'm avoiding Florida and Tennessee because of the injury to the Florida QB. I never try to bet into new QBs especially in rivalry games. Forget about a 22 point spread on MS State and UMASS because I'm not sure if MS State will care. Same with Alabama and Kent State.

So let's not go nuts this week. I'm playing only one unit on each play.

Georgia +7 over Ole Miss - Nobody is giving Georgia much of a chance in this game, but Ole Miss hasn't proven they can play without giving the other team the ball and blowing a huge lead. If Georgia can just weather the first half storm, they have to feel they can keep this close and possibly win.

LSU -3.5 over Auburn - LSU is better than Auburn. The spread is lower because LSU has struggled to put a consistent offense on the field, and because they are on the road. Were the game in LSU, they'd be favored by 10.5 easily. With that in mind, I like LSU winning by a TD.

South Carolina +2 over Kentucky - These are bad teams, but South Carolina is less bad than Kentucky. I don't care that Kentucky put up points against cupcakes. The second Kentucky faces a team with an defensive talent, they pull the EL FOLDO.

Texas A&M -6 over Arkansas - I've liked A&M all year. I continue to like them in this game, and they are my dark horse in the SEC West to take down Alabama. I'll ride them here in a neutral site, and hope for the best.

FLYER MONEY LINE PICK

GEORGIA +240 - This is only if you're feeling frisky. I like taking the points much better than laying the money line for a Dawgs team on the road that struggled with Missouri, but if you believe that UGA is a sleeper team then this is the play. But again, this week isn't exactly the week to expect a bunch of upsets since the lines are tight.

Alright there's your picks. Let's turn it around this week and make some $$$

Alabama vs. Ole Miss SEC Game Film Review: Week 3

OK I'm exhausted after watching this film. Ole Miss fans, sorry I'm not going to cover you this week because you lost, and there's too many plays to detail. Don't worry you'll get your turn soon (possibly next week). In this case I'm going to review Alabama's performance in this game. If you expect glowing positive remarks because the Tide won this game 48-43, please think again. This was a complete disaster on several fronts, and the only reason Alabama won this game is because of turnovers and specials teams.

ALABAMA OFFENSE:

Um, let's start with one thing. I have no idea what Lane Kiffin was thinking with his game plan in this matchup. As I'm watching Alabama fling the ball around on speed plays in the first half, WR screens, RB screens, pitch end-arounds, all I can think to myself is one thing. "This is Alabama? The hard-nosed running team who crams it up your rear? Because I didn't know Alabama suddenly became an ineffective spread option team."

The game plan looked completely assinine. You know how many of the 48 points were offensive TDs? Only 3. That's less that half the points. The offense honestly looked like crap for most of the game, because for some reason Kiffin decided he would focus on letting Jalen Hurts throw the ball. Jalen Hurts doesn't throw the ball well down the field. Inside of 10 yards, he's fine. On screens, he's fine. Once you go 15 yards down the field, it looks wobbly and off target. He missed a WIDE OPEN touchdown on the first series of the game because he overthrew the receiver. He continually missed open guys down the field. At one point he hit Calvin Ridley late in the game for a huge play, but even that ball turned Ridley around and was under thrown. Going deep is not Hurts strong point, but Kiffin still had him throwing the ball 31 times. It made no sense.

Also, penalties were a huge problem on the offensive line. Alabama as a team had 9 penalties accepted for 75 yards. Holding and false starts killed several drives, and the blocking for Hurts was average at best. One of the Ole Miss TDs that gave them a big lead in the first half was #60 Malik Martin getting blown by on the right side, and Ole Miss lit up Hurts for a sack fumble scoop and score.

Meanwhile whenever Lane actually handed off to a RB like #34 Damien Harris, he had 16 carries for 144 yards and a TD. Otherwise this was Hurts game to run. In addition to throwing the ball 31 times, he ran it 18 times for 146 yards. And yet, Hurts had ZERO touchdowns in the game. All that production but he never threw one in the end zone, or ran one in the end zone. Make no mistake, Hurts is a great runner and a great athlete. But he's not an answer throwing the ball a ton, and I don't think he's got the arm to be that kind of thrower. Balls coming out of his hands look wobbly and heading the wrong direction. If he can learn some touch, that will certainly help, but as a defense I would want to play contain on him so he doesn't beat me with his legs.

Oh and run the ball Lane. Good grief. You have great running backs and you barely used them in this game. It almost cost you huge, but Chad Kelly being a moron and the special teams returns bailed you out.

ALABAMA DEFENSE:

The defense wasn't good either. Face it. You gave up 43 points to another team in the SEC because your secondary was absolute garbage. I'm not pulling punches here, I don't care how much of a Bama homer you are, that was the worst secondary performance I've seen out of this team in a long time. Every guy back there was getting torched or out of position. Don't believe me? I'll get to why in a second.

Let's start with the line. Alabama is playing a version of the nickel for most of the game, with man-to-man coverage at times and safety help, then switched to a zone. It depended on whether or not they were playing to blitz with the LB or corners. In the first half, Alabama produced zero pressure and as such Chad Kelly did a great job picking them apart. In the second half, they finally realized they could blitz I suppose (I visual the DC checking the rule book at the half and a light bulb coming on over his head) and they started to harass Kelly. Here's one of the turning points of the game:

This is the tying score in the second half. You're early in the second half, and Ole Miss is backed up with Kelly throwing on 2nd and 7. The circled yellow player is #22 Ryan Anderson, a LB who originally dropped back into coverage a step and then came on a blitz. He's got a free look because the RT doesn't see him until it's too late. There's a key feature here I've isolated with the blue lines. The top blue line goes to the wide open receiver that is now available because #22 is coming on the blitz. The bottom blue arrow is where Chad Kelly is actually looking. Once he sees the blitzer coming (and he did because he ran away from him briefly) he has to unload that ball to the open man. Instead, he pulls it down and tries to escape, gets sacked, fumbles the ball, and Alabama scores the tying TD to make it 24-24.

That play is on Kelly. He has to see that guy coming and make the read. There's nobody on the side he's looking at who is a threat, plus he's still got periphery to see the blitzer. It's not coming from his blind side. Now the defense line was excellent once they started to blitz. They recovered not one but TWO scoop and scores for touchdowns. So credit them with 14 points alone.

Now for the secondary. The worst guy on the field all day was #15 Ronnie Harrison. He was awful. He was beat early in the game, bit on a fake late in the middle of the game for a TD, and got beat late in the game as Kelly brought Ole Miss down the field. Let's look at an example:

I call this Alabama getting torched Part 1. This is the setup. The Alabama defensive back circled in yellow is #15 Ronnie Harrison. I've isolated what he is looking at. He's seeing Chad Kelly fake a pitch to the running back and he's thinking he better go chase that ball. There's one problem with that line of thinking, and that is this: It's not his job to go chasing the ball-carrier right then. That's the linebacker's job first along with the defensive linemen, and eventually the corners. If the safety is a guy making a tackle on a runner, it's still not a good thing. No, his job was supposed to be staying deeper than the deepest guy. He doesn't. He bites on the play fake, hanging LB #20 on a WR in the red circle. That's a bad combo.

Here's Alabama getting torched Part 2, the play a second later. Note the Ole Miss WR in yellow blowing by the Alabama defenders in the red box. #15 has realized he's completely out of place and trying to backpedal, but the WR is at full speed and Chad Kelly is staring right at him. Kelly lays out an easy pass and it's a 65 yard house call TD. All because #15 wanted to stop the run, and forgot his job.

The other guy who I will continue to pick on this year is #26 Marlon Humphry. He's not good. He's never been good despite what I hear from Alabama fans defending him. I told you about him last year, I'll say it again. He got out jumped in the first half for a huge play, he got torched in the second half for 20+ and almost a TD, and he got beat twice late in the game for those 2 garbage time TDs that brought Ole Miss within one score. He's the guy I would pick on every single game if I'm an opposing team. You find 26 and you run your best guy at him. It'll pay dividends. But he wasn't alone. This secondary isn't good outside of #29 Minkah Fitzpatrick, and even he got his butt chewed out by Saban for loafing on the play when Humphry got lit up for 40 yards on a jump ball.

Overall, without a lot of help by Kelly Alabama's pass defense didn't impress me. They certainly weren't getting pressure with just the front four, and they had to blitz to get any kind of action. Along with the secondary if they face any teams with dynamic passers, they are in big trouble in the long run. That's their weakest point.

ALABAMA SPECIAL TEAMS:


More good and bad here as well. The good? Alabama had 2 made FGs and had almost 175 yards in returns including a TD. The bad news? They missed a FG as well which I'm sure drives Nick Saban crazy. The return game was the most impressive as the 85 yard house call was a turning point in the game to get Alabama back in it after a 21 point deficit. But overall, you can credit 13 points to the special teams, which when you combine it with the 14 points from the defense gives you the majority of the points in the game.

The takeaway from Alabama in this game should be to run the ball more, throw with Hurts less, get him into read-option plays which utilize his biggest strength (his legs), and leverage the return game as much as possible. No fair catches! On defense, they need to blitz earlier in the game as it seems to get QBs off the spot, and try like hell not to let their positioning in the secondary get them in trouble. Because if that was supposed to be a strength before the season, it certainly didn't look like it in this game.

Luckily Alabama doesn't play another decent team for 3 weeks when they eventually face off against Arkansas on the road, followed by Tennessee and A&M. I don't think they get through that stretch of games without a loss playing like they did against Ole Miss.

SEC College Football Picks Week 3

Well we had a much better Week in Week 2 didn't we? The picks went 4-1, so we're up to 1 unit to the good. We weathered the storm of little information and came out ahead. Now we have some actual data to work with, and I think we can get even better. Let's check out the games

Straight up Picks:

Ohio v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt v. Georgia Tech - GEORGIA TECH
Alabama v. Mississippi - ALABAMA
East Carolina v. South Carolina - EAST CAROLINA
New Mexico State v. Kentucky - NEW MEXICO STATE
Texas A&M v. Auburn - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Mississippi State - LSU
Georgia v. Missouri - GEORGIA
North Texas v. Florida - FLORIDA
Texas State v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS

New Mexico State will be the big upset of the week as I think Kentucky is completely hopeless. I think their staff has lost direction and they may not win another game. Also, East Carolina is a good team and they will take care of a bad South Carolina squad.

BETTING PICKS (UNITS INDICATED NEXT TO PICK)

ALABAMA -11 over Ole Miss 2 Units - Alabama is better than FSU right now across the board, and Chad Kelly got lucky last year thanks to Alabama being careless with the ball. I don't think they are careless this time.

VANDERBILT +6.5 over GA Tech 1 Unit - This one is about the points. I expect Tech to grind this one out at home, and I think they win by a late FG.

OHIO +28 over Tennessee 1 Unit - The Vols are coming off two wins where they started slow. They have Florida next week. They aren't looking at this game as a threat at all, and as such I don't think they care about putting up 5 scores on Ohio.

East Carolina +3 over South Carolina 1 Unit - Honestly East Carolina is the better team and you're getting points. Take them and run with it.

TEXAS STATE +31 over Arkansas 1 Unit - Arkansas is coming off TCU, looking at A&M next week, and in the middle you have this game against a Texas State team that LOVES to fling the ball. And Arkansas just happened to be 109th in pass defense right now. It's a closer game than Arkansas would like, who have only played close games.

FLYER MONEY LINE PICK OF THE WEEK:

NEW MEXICO STATE +750 against Kentucky - Will Kentucky lose? Maybe. I don't see any reason on any of my metric to believe they are a huge favorite in this game, but Vegas has them as a 19.5 point favorite. NM State is coming off a big win over New Mexico, and they can put up points. I would think this one ends 24-23 or something like that.

Kentucky v Florida Film Review: Week 2

The game that won the vote this week was the blowout match between the Gators and the Wildcats on CBS. Of course, this vote was made long before we knew it was a complete whitewash, but nonetheless I vowed to give you a full review of this game and especially the victor. With that in mind, Florida won 45-7 so this review will be mostly about Florida and their scheme. Because I'll cover what Kentucky did wrong at the end.

FLORIDA OFFENSE:

Let's start with what the Gators are trying to do on offense as their game plan. By watching this game you may have oooohed and aaaahed the large passing numbers. And that's fine because it's a viable part of this Florida offense. However, the primary thing Florida wants to do in this system is run the football. Against Kentucky, Florida ran the ball 50 times for an average of 4.9 a carry. That's huge. They also threw 33 times for 320 yards, and that's big as well. However, on a play split it was 61% run and 39% pass by play call.

Florida ran at least a dozen formation sets on offense while I was watching the film, and they switched them at will. In the first series they opened a bunched 2 TE - 2 WR set for a power running look, but they also ran a pull play across the field for one of their TE's, #30 Goolsby, later in the game out of that same bunch formation as a passing play. They can switch to 3 or 4 receiver spreads. They can go with power running overloaded sets to either side. They can switch back to a standard play-action pro-set. It's designed for one thing and one thing only. Confusion.

The goal of this Florida offense is to confuse the defenses so that it can run or pass out of any particular formation. They aren't going to be obvious, and they are doing it because they now have a true play-action pocket-passer QB in Luke Del Rio. I noticed several things about Del Rio that I'll cover in the picture examples, but the main thing he has is pocket presence. You can't teach that in the college level. It's that feeling of how to step up and back in the pocket when you sense pressure, and the best QBs at the NFL level have it. Most college kids don't. Luke has it, which is terrifying if you're not a Florida Gator fan, because they finally found a good QB that can complement their already great defense.

So how did Florida take over this game? It happened on three plays. I'll detail them here, and you can click on the pictures to expand:

Florida made an interception (one of 3 in this game, but I'll get to that later on defense) and while they were up 7-0 already on a long grinding score, this was the first play from scrimmage after the pick. The picture shows you down the field coverage. The circle on the top is #81 Antonio Callaway who is two steps ahead of his defender, absolutely scorching him on a fly route. The lower circle is the safety who in that exact moment has figured out he made a huge mistake. You can't see Del Rio the QB in this picture, but he's looked off the safety to the bottom receiver who is obviously covered. By the time Del Rio looks at the top to Callaway, you see the safety is starting to backpedal because he's totally out of position. What happens after this is Del Rio drops a 45 yard dime to Callaway who runs the rest of the way for a 78 yard TD. Boom.

This is at the end of the half. You can see the clock scenario. Kentucky needs to stop Florida to keep them from going up 4 scores. Florida is throwing on first down and goal. Now there's a lot going on here so I drew arrows. This will show you how the misdirection of Florida's offense completely confused Kentucky. Note the receiver in the middle who is running across the 2 yard line. His job is entirely to confuse the defense and draw those two men in coverage to him. You now have two guys on #18, leaving #4 Brandon Powell at the bottom running behind him to the end zone. One defender at the bottom of your screen has no hope of catching #4 as he goes to the line, the other defender in the end zone is backing up because he's worried about a guy coming in behind him. What happens is Del Rio has great protection by the O-Line on a 3-man rush (bad idea Kentucky) and he delivers a strike to Powell right at the line for a TD.

Here's the back breaker play of the game. This is the exact moment I can determine when Kentucky gave up and stopped trying. And there was still an entire half of football left. The circle at the top is the ball, it's early in the second half, and you can see there is a receiver just waiting to catch this pass basically by himself. This is a completely busted coverage as there's not one but TWO Florida receivers who could have made this play, and the nearest defenders are almost 10 yards away on each side. Obviously, #16 Freddie Swain makes the easy catch, and there's absolutely nothing between him and the end zone. Game over. Except they still scored 14 more points and Kentucky got a garbage time TD. But this picture shows what happened in a nutshell. Florida confused Kentucky so badly on offense they had no shot.

FLORIDA DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS:

I'll start by saying that Florida's defense looked so good in this game because Kentucky made so many mistakes. That's not to say that Florida's defense isn't good, but they aren't +4 turnovers and holding a team to under 150 yards good. They needed some help for that. Still, they had a great day and a few players jumped out at me.

The first guy was #34 Alex Anzalone, who looks like some version of Thor and Clay Matthews running around with flowing blonde hair out of his helmet as he makes tackles. By my count he had a sack, several tackles for loss, and made every single play on Kentucky's first 3-and-out of the game. He was flying around to the ball and looks extremely talented as a LB with a high motor.

Second guy was #17 Jordan Sherit, a defensive lineman who abused tackles all day in pass protection. He had two sacks that I saw, was blowing around guys on the line, and was causing havoc in the backfield on a couple of the interceptions. Kentucky didn't know what to do with him at all, and it cost them huge.

The other guys were #6 Quincy Wilson, #31 Teez Tabor, and #20 Marcus Maye. They all had interceptions on the day, and were all part of making Kentucky QB Drew Barker's life a living nightmare. They, along with the pass rush and remaining secondary managed to hold the starting QB to 10 yards passing. TEN. That's insane. And they were doing it mainly by playing press coverage along the front line because they completely disrespected Barker's ability to throw the ball. Everybody was in a five yard box at one point. It was a bloodbath. The best interception was a tie between Wilson who made his 1-handed at the boundary, and Tabor who completely jumped the pass as Barker tried to throw a WR screen.

All in all, the Florida defense hasn't faced an offensive opponent of consequence yet, and they won't until they play Tennessee two weeks from now on the road. Maybe at that point I can give them a proper evaluation. As for their kicking game? It's schizophrenic. Their kicker Eddy Pineiro made a 53 yarder that I gave him no chance on, while also missing two FGs from 43 yards and 30+ yards. He needs to work on his short game, like many golfers I know. He's got the Bubba Watson drive, but absolutely no control.

KENTUCKY IN GENERAL:

Good lord. You're a bad football team, and I don't see any hope for you this year. That's the brutally honest truth. It's worse than I possibly imagined. Your starting QB Barker was so bad he was throwing balls into the dirt when he had wide open targets for TDs. The running game until garbage time was completely absent. You replaced your QB for a backup that had 45 yards and got sacked several times, AND HE WAS THE BETTER GUY. Your best running back Boom Williams only got 12 carries because you were so far behind you couldn't run the ball. You have zero talent at the receiver positions when faced with adversity.

Plus, your team gave up and I saw it on the field. You know you saw it too. There was a point in that game where they stopped listening and just wanted to leave. Florida, for what it's worth actually pitied you enough in the 4th quarter to take their foot off the gas and put in their backup QB. That should make you realize especially after the loss to a cupcake in week one that your coaching staff has completely lost control of this team.

The defense has no idea where it's supposed to be. If you don't believe me, look at those three pictures that I posted above and point out to me who is in the right coverage position. Because nobody is in the right position for the types of plays Florida was running, and they got burned over and over again. The best thing I can say about Kentucky is that they only committed two penalties, so at least they didn't look undisciplined there.

I don't advocate for firing somebody else's coach, but dear lord Kentucky you can do better than this. I've seen it before. You need to get rid of Stoops ASAP and get an actual head coach in your school. Because right now I think you're on pace for the worst season since 1994 under Bill Curry. And you won only 1 game that year.

Better figure something out quick.