If you know me, you know I don't like following the public very often. That means I'm typically taking a contrarian strategy with my picks, and letting the chips fall where they may. I've had some success with this in the past, but last year I got sunk constantly by my big money pick failing seemingly every week. With that in mind, I'm going to take a more conservative approach early on. I'll post who I think will win each game and then I'll post the bets.
South Carolina v. Vanderbilt - VANDERBILT
Appalachian State v. Tennessee - TENNESSEE
Missouri v. West Virginia - MISSOURI
South Alabama v. Mississippi State - MISSISSIPPI STATE
Southern Miss v. Kentucky - KENTUCKY
Louisiana Tech v. Arkansas - ARKANSAS
UMASS v. Florida - FLORIDA
Clemson v. Auburn - CLEMSON
UCLA v. Texas A&M - TEXAS A&M
LSU v. Wisconsin - LSU
North Carolina v. Georgia - NORTH CAROLINA
USC v. Alabama - ALABAMA
Ole Miss v. Florida State - OLE MISS
The upset I see on the list is the Georgia-UNC game and I hope I'm wrong. Repeat, I hope I'm wrong but there's reasons for why I'm thinking this is potential disaster for the Dawgs. For one thing, we have no idea if Grayson Lambert who will start the game can handle a big game atmosphere and move this team. He did a poor job of it last year. Second, the defense on Georgia has a lack of depth supposedly and that's a huge problem with a team operating a high powered offense. Third, the money moved the line in many places from -3.5 on Georgia down to -2.5 right now. That's with over 70% of the bets on the Dawgs. In my mind, the public is HUGE on Georgia, and the money is on UNC. We'll see if the Kirby Smart era is any different than the Richt era on big first games, but my money is sitting on the sidelines for that one until we know more.
BETS:
If I don't list something here, it means I don't think it's worth your time. I'll only put my best picks for the weekend this year on this list along with the units. For the beginning of the year, everything will only be ONE UNIT. We're not trying to be heroes with little information.
FLORIDA -35.5: Look it's a ton of points. But UMASS is one of the worst teams in college football if not the worst, and Florida is going to want to show off their new QB and offense. In 31+ spread games, Florida is 2-0 over the last 3 seasons. I like the Gators in this one.
LSU -10: For some reason people don't think LSU is a great team in bigger games. But I disagree, and I think they come out strong here in this early match. The sharps look like they agree as the line has been pushed up a couple of times. Plus LSU is 13-6 as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.
ALABAMA -12: Line started at -10 and it keeps marching. Alabama may have a new QB, but I think they win the game, and there's a chance they win huge.
OLE MISS +4.5: Most people think Florida State is going to contend if not win the ACC, so they are looking for a big start from the Noles. Here's the thing, the Noles are only 10-15 as a favorite ATS while the Rebels are 4-1 as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The money is also trending towards Ole Miss as 70% of bets are on FSU, but the line has dropped from 5.5 to 4.5.
FLYER MONEY LINE PICK:
MISSOURI +320: Look, Missouri may not win against West Virginia, but Mizzou's defense is good enough to keep them in the game, and we don't know if their offense has finally gelled in the offseason into something competent. What I do know is that a great defense getting better than 3-1 underdog odds is worth a unit bet on a flyer.
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