SEC Picks Week 12!

No preview this week because the games are mostly awful. There's one that stands out: Ole Miss and LSU. But the problem is that game still effectively only carries a negative. IF Ole Miss loses, that clinches the West for Alabama. However, I don't think negatives are important enough to preview since an Alabama win over Auburn is all it will take to clinch as well, regardless of the Ole Miss outcome.

With that said, here's the picks!

3 Unit Play:

LSU @ Ole Miss -6.5: OLE MISS -6.5 - Strategy play here, but the betting community is 76% on LSU, while the spread has moved from -4.5 open to -6.5 line. That tells you the large money is on Ole Miss and that's where I'm heading too.

2 Unit Plays:

MS State @ Arkansas -4.5: ARKANSAS -4.5 - Arkansas is the hotter team right now, and I've doubted them enough this year. But at home? In a game that essentially means nothing to MS State now? I like the hogs.

Tennessee @ Missouri +7: TENNESSEE -7 - Tennessee has been a disappointing favorite this year only going 3-3 in those games ATS, but Missouri is worse and can't really score. Assuming Tennessee can put 14 points on the board, they can cover.

Texas A&M @ Vandy +7: TEXAS A&M -7 - Yes it's Vandy at home and Vandy has done a great job as an underdog. But this is prisoner of the moment stuff and Texas A&M is a much better team than Vanderbilt, regardless of A&M getting punked by Auburn.

1 Unit Cupcake Plays:

Florida Atlantic @ Florida -31: FLORIDA -31 - Spread's huge and the gamblers are lining up to go the other way given Florida's struggles, but this is a 2-8 team in a bad league playing an SEC East Champion. Florida blows doors in the Swamp.

The Citadel @ South Carolina -20: THE CITADEL +20 - Interesting spread here, because I think at -21 South Carolina action swings to the Citadel, and if it's swinging on one point, I'll take the points.

Idaho @ Auburn -34: AUBURN -34 - Another game where the popular pick is Idaho and the points, but the big money is pushing the line from 31 to 34. That means the sharps are on Auburn and so am I in this one.

Charleston Southern @ Alabama -38.5: CHARLESTON SOUTHERN +38.5 - This is a fair line, and one that's really tight. Nick Saban traditionally doesn't give a damn about these games, and he'll call off the dogs when he feels he's made his point. I'm taking the points.

Georgia Southern @ Georgia -13.5: GEORGIA -13.5 - People are afraid of taking Georgia in this game, which is dumb. They think because Georgia's offense stinks this will be close. No, it won't. Georgia wins and wins big to prove a point because Richt knows he needs style points.

Charlotte @ Kentucky -24.5: CHARLOTTE +24.5 - I wouldn't lay 24.5 points on Kentucky playing against a high school team. And while Charlotte's defense is terrible, they can still score points. And I'm not sure that Kentucky can put up 34+ on them, which they will need to cover this.

SEC Picks Week 11!

Sorry for the delay on the picks, but you should be using these as mainly comedy while you watch my teams have the games won and then blow them in the second half. I'm looking at you Tennessee. Anyway I'm down 11 units now because I got aggressive and lost. That's the risk you take. But I'm not going to stop now. 20 units is my usual season bankroll, so we're going to keep picking until I go down the with ship. Laughing all the way at the upsets. I mean Arkansas winning outright? Auburn destroying A&M? SC actually hanging 21 on Tennessee in a quarter? The world is upside down.

FOUR UNIT PLAY

Arkansas @ LSU -7: LSU -7 - Again, prisoner of the moment stuff with Arkansas. This spread would be probably 14 points if LSU won and Arkansas lost last week. Instead, LSU was beaten by the best team in the country, and Arkansas pulled a game out of its ass. I'll take a really pissed off Tigers team at home who is going to stay alive in discussion against a very average Arkansas run defense. Four units.

TWO UNIT PLAYS

Alabama @ Mississippi State +8: ALABAMA -8 - Alabama always wins this game. They've won it 7 years in a row. Mississippi State might get some picks as a prisoner of the moment, but the only way this stays close is if Dak Prescott turns into Superman, and that's too much of a risk to bet on it. Two units.

ONE UNIT PLAYS

Georgia @ Auburn EVEN: GEORGIA EVEN - This game is a coinflip, but I'll put a unit on the Dawgs for one reason, they just happen to defend the run pretty well. Not against great opponents, mind you, but Auburn isn't a great opponent.

Florida @ South Carolina +7.5: FLORIDA -7.5 - I'm taking the Gators with one unit because of the hook. Florida's offense struggled with Vandy, South Carolina showed they can hang with a team at home. But Florida's defense is infinitely better than South Carolina, and South Carolina can't stop even a pedestrian offense.

Kentucky @ Vanderbilt -3.5: VANDY -3.5 - Too many people are taking Kentucky in this game for my taste. 60% of the money is on Kentucky, who hasn't proven anything since beating a terrible Mizzou team. Vandy went toe to toe with one of the best defenses in the SEC and gave it away at the end of the road. I think it's prisoner of the moment stuff, so I'll go with the home team.

BYU v. Missouri +5.5: MIZZOU +5.5 - I'll take a small number on Missouri in this one. Gary Pinkel just announced he's going to retire for health reasons, the campus is going through some major changes, and the team will band together. I'm betting on an emotional lift for the Tigers in this game. One unit.

SEC Week 11 Preview: Alabama v. Mississippi State

Let's take a look at the schedule this week:

Georgia plays Auburn - Meaningless because the East is decided.
Florida plays South Carolina - Only meaningful if Florida loses because it would affect them in the college football playoff, but this Florida team as composed with a backup QB isn't winning the SEC.
Kentucky plays Vandy - This should be LAUGHABLE and meaningless.
Arkansas plays LSU - The Alabama loss means LSU has to win this, and Alabama has to take a loss.
BYU plays Missouri - Relevant because Established Racism plays newly admonished Racism.
North Texas plays Tennessee - Really?
Western Carolina plays A&M - Only funny because A&M might lose if they play like they did against Auburn.

So that leaves us Alabama and Mississippi State as the only game with true meaning left in the SEC this weekend. Oh and it gets way way worse the week after this on what I'm dubbing "The Late Week SEC Bake Sale." You'll see what I mean when you look at the Week 12 schedule. It will make you sick as a CFB fan.

I'll skip the analysis of Alabama as a whole and point out what they did in the LSU game. They destroyed LSU. Make no bones about it, it was strength on strength. Alabama's run defense versus LSU's running attack. And in battles of offense vs. defensive strength, defense usually wins. That was no different here. Here's what I wrote from last week on why Bama would win:

"The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed."

That's exactly what happened. It was a real question of which team would show up in terms of domination, but I had no doubts what would have to happen for Alabama to claim victory. Alabama got up 10-0 in the second quarter, and Leonard Fournette had less than 40 yards in the game all day. Game Over, Man! You can't win as an LSU team throwing the ball. They haven't had a game-changer QB in what seems like a decade.

Moving forward, Alabama plays Mississippi State, which you probably haven't paid much attention to this season. And with good reason. Despite being 17th ranked in the country (which is a glorious indication of how hilariously bad teams are this season at the top 25 spots) Mississippi State has flubbed their only two meaningful games. They lost to ranked LSU and ranked A&M. Their wins are over Southern Miss, NW State, Auburn, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Kentucky, and Missouri. Go ahead and tell me what impresses you about those wins. Answer? NADA.

So with that in mind, Mississippi State is about to play what I consider to be the most complete team in the country as it stands right now. A team that shuts down running attacks and is basically only vulnerable on turnovers and the passing game. Can Mississippi State hang with such a team? The answer might shock you.

Mississippi State passing game is 2nd in the SEC only to Ole Miss, the only team to beat Alabama. They are careful with the ball, sporting a 22-1 TD-INT rate, and almost 300 yards a game through the air. Yes, a lot of that is the competition they play. Yes, they've lost the ranked games they played. However, the loss to LSU was by 2 points at home and their offense is one of the few that's capable of making comebacks and overcoming deficits because they can score. They have an actual QB that's been around the block in Dak Prescott.

Downsides? They haven't beaten Alabama since 2007. Their defense is worse than Georgia and LSU against the run, teams that couldn't even compete with Derrick Henry running them over. They don't cause a ton of turnovers, which is usually Alabama's Achilles heel. Oh, and in general nobody actually believes that Mississippi State is as good as their ranking, or has a chance in hell in this game. Probably the players don't even believe it, and if they get down by 3 scores, they'll quit. So let's see what it will take to win.

Alabama Wins If:

It plays Alabama football. Derrick Henry goes for 100+ and a TD, they get some good defensive stops. Lane Kiffin dials up some shots down the field to Ridley when nobody is looking for them. And of course, they don't turn the ball over. Key point there as always. They don't have to be special. This isn't a tough game for them if they play smart football.

Mississippi State Wins If:

Dak Prescott turns into Superman and goes for 350+ in the air, with 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD. He has to be mobile and he has to confuse the Bama defense. The secondary needs to be exposed  after he looks like he's running and then takes the top off the defense. Oh and the defense has to sell out to stop Derrick Henry from controlling the ground game. Stack the box and make Coker have to put the game on his shoulders.

All in all, this is one of the last two challenges Alabama has left. The last one if a very mediocre Auburn team, but both are on the road and the last one is the biggest rivalry. We'll see if Alabama can pass this test to put Auburn between themselves and a title shot.

SEC Picks Week 10!

One pick under last week. Down 5 units on the season, so it's time to get a little more aggressive. I'm going to make a few more bold moves since we only have a few weeks left of picks. Obviously, more risk, but the rewards can be higher, and we have more data to work with. However, this season has been crazy so what looks like an obvious play has been anything but. That's why it's all about playing the systems and sticking to the numbers.

Four Unit Play:

South Carolina @ Tennessee -17: I like TENNESSEE -17. South Carolina stinks. Tennessee has found their offensive stride and is starting to ramp up their confidence. South Carolina has no real coach and no real QB plus they are on the road. This is my number one pick of the week. Four units.

Two Unit Plays:

Vandy @ Florida -21: I like VANDY +21. Florida has been crushing it ATS with a 5-2 record, but the lines have mostly been close. Now? Vegas is trying to push the limits and force people to make a hard decision. Vandy is 4-2 ATS as the underdog, and Florida is 0-1 when the spread gets this high, 3-4 when it's this high over the last 3 years. Two units.

Auburn @ Texas A&M -7: I like TEXAS A&M -7. Eventually Auburn will cover a spread, but they are 1-6 on the year, and they are 0-3 on the road. Texas A&M has bucked their trend and been 4-2 as a favorite. Until that changes, I'm going against Auburn the rest of the way. Two units.

One Unit Plays:

Kentucky @ UGA -14.5: I like KENTUCKY +14.5. Both Kentucky and UGA are horrific against the spread this year. I'm not better much on this one, but when given a 2TD hook my gut usually says take the points. Also, with UGA not knowing who is the QB? I'm worried the UGA offense will continue to have issues. One unit.

Arkansas @ Ole Miss -10: I like ARKANSAS +10. Ole Miss has been great at home ATS, but they've also played no offenses of consequence. Arkansas is a good running team with a decent defense, so I like a closer game. Not a huge play though. One unit.


LSU @ Alabama -7: I like LSU +7. LSU isn't used to being an underdog, and in fact they haven't been one all season. But Bama has been awful at home. AWFUL. 0-5 ATS awful. They lost to Ole Miss at home and have struggled in every game there so far this year. It's supposed to rain also, and Leonard Fournette is coming to town. Small play because of the magnitude, my rule is never bet heavy on a game of the week. The lines are tight for a reason. One unit.

Week 10 Game of the Week Preview: Alabama v. LSU

There's only one game that will determine the SEC for sure this week, and that's Alabama v. LSU in Tuscaloosa. A true night game matchup that will in all likelihood either knock LSU or Alabama out of contention for the SEC West title. So how do these teams match up against each other?

LSU Strengths:

Obviously Leonard Fournette is the number one strength for LSU. If you take him away, I don't think that LSU is remotely as good without him, or even in contention for anything of consequence. What makes Fournette so special? Well, for starters he's big. 6'1" and 230 pounds is no joke for a running back. Second, he's faster than most defensive backs. Watch his tapes and look at Fournette's game-breaking plays where he gets into the secondary. He's turning on the jets and those speedsters at much smaller weights can't catch him. Third, he's got undeniable bowl-you-over power in his game. Take a look at the Auburn tape and watch Fournette shed blockers like your mama shaking off a winter shawl as she comes into the house.

But the LSU defense isn't to be denied their due either. While they aren't as good as say Alabama, Missouri, or Florida, they are still right up there with those defenses in terms of overall speed and power. They are amazing against the run, second to only Alabama in the conference. They are a ball-hawking defense that thrives on turnovers, 2nd in the conference in turnover margin. Overall, they look like they can swarm to the ball easily and make the big tackles in space. It's a challenge for Alabama's run-heavy offense.

LSU Weaknesses:

The LSU passing game is almost non-existent. For good reason since they have Leonard Fournette, they aren't really required to pass much. They've yet to run into an opponent who can stop their rushing attack, and that included a very good defense in Florida. The key to evaluating LSU's pass game isn't to look at their yards per game or attempts per game, both of which are dead last in the SEC. Rather, look at the overall yards per attempt, which is tied for 3rd in the SEC, and their TD-INT rate which is 9-0. LSU hasn't thrown any interceptions this year, so while this is a weakness in terms of the fact it hasn't really been tested, I'm not sure it can't be effective.

LSU has a penalty problem. That's another big weakness for them, and it's yet to bite them in the butt. They average over 7 penalties a game (dead last in the SEC), and while that doesn't matter against Western Kentucky, it would be a huge problem against Alabama. Also, they've had issues getting teams off the field on 3rd down, in addition to actually getting a pass-rush on the QB. Alabama may have to adjust their overall attack against LSU, because the way to beat them is to throw the ball. Since they have issues getting pressure, QB Jacob Coker should have more time to throw for Alabama, and that's bad news if Lane Kiffin is scheming correctly. And remember, Lane Kiffin is ALWAYS scheming.

Alabama Strengths:

In a word, Balance. Alabama is one of the most offensively balanced teams in the SEC, and that balance makes them extremely hard to defend. If you push them on the run, they will open up the passing game with great receivers like Calvin Ridley and Richard Mullaney. If you decide to blitz and play close on pass protections, they can pound you right up the middle with Derrick Henry in the rushing game. There is no huge weakness in this Alabama offense, but there's also no one completely head-and-shoulders talent that outshines the rest of the team either.

Defensively, Alabama prides itself in taking away your running game. This will be their pentultimate test of will against the best running back in the country by my estimation. But as Florida found out the hard way, stopping Leonard Fournette is not a simple task. If they can, that plays into their strategy of commanding the front line, eating up possessions, and forcing the other team to take chances. Once Alabama gets a lead, it's very VERY hard to take away. They are great at closing out opponents and imposing their will.

Alabama Weaknesses:

As I said in a prior article, the main one for Alabama is turnovers which I won't belabor too much. However, they are playing one of the best turnover margin teams in the league, so I would be remiss if I didn't mention that LSU can make this very one-sided if Alabama gets careless with the ball. Also, Alabama's passing attack can be inconsistent. At times they can beat you deep and make you look ridiculous. Other times Coker will throw into double coverages and make horrible decisions. It's sort of a coin flip on which QB shows up possession by possession, which is why Nick Saban would want to run the ball first.

LSU Wins If:

Fournette goes for 200+ yards and 2 TDs, and the LSU defense gets 2 turnovers out of Alabama. I don't believe that LSU can go toe-to-toe with this Alabama team and not capitalize on turnovers if they hope to win. Hat on a hat, strength on strength, something has to give in these types of games.

Alabama Wins If:

The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed.

Picks on Friday, if you're still paying attention to those in order to mock my silliness.

SEC Picks Week 9!

Let's be honest, most of the SEC games suck this weekend. You've got the Georgia-Florida game, and that's about it. You MIGHT be excited about Ole Miss and Auburn, but Ole Miss lost to Memphis and Auburn is out of contention for everything. LSU and Bama are off this week. So it's a cavalcade of mediocre matchups with one big game that will likely decide the East. SC and A&M? Should be a blowout. Tennessee and Kentucky? Snoozers.

I lost 2 units last week because Missouri screwed me. They've activated Maty Mauk now from what I'm hearing. Well no crap. I guess getting whomped defensively by Vandy in their first SEC win in what seems like forever would do that. I should have known better in this bizarre season. 4 units down total now thru Week 9, and it seems fitting given how many crazy upsets we've seen. Excuses, excuses. On to the picks! No 2 unit plays this week since it's mostly low key matchups.

1 Unit Plays:

Ole Miss @ Auburn +7.5: I like AUBURN +7.5 in this game. This is simply a system play. One, I like home dogs in this crazy season. Two, I tend to shy away from any favorite on the road having to pay over the TD. Three, Ole Miss got smoked in their last two road games at Florida and Memphis, so I question their ability to travel.

South Carolina @ Texas A&M -16.5: I like TEXAS A&M -16.5 in this game. Texas A&M is a home favorite by a bunch coming off two losses in a row while they looked offensively bereft. But A&M is 4-1 this season as a favorite, while South Carolina has already lost a head coach, and is 0-3 ATS on the road. The number is high, but it's worth a one unit play.

Georgia v. Florida -3: I like GEORGIA +3 in the game. Logic would tell you not to take the Dawgs in this game and bet the Gators based on their defense. However, this game is anything but logical. 2 of the last 4 years, the team that was lower ranked won the game. It's about as 50-50 as you can make it every year, and with the exception of 2014, it's usually close. The Dawgs also won 3 of the last 4, so they've done well in this series of late. I'm taking the Dawgs in an upset, and I think Richt will shuffle his QBs around.

Vanderbilt @ Houston -12.5: I like HOUSTON -12.5 in this game. This is the best offense Vandy will see all year, and Houston is undefeated for a reason. I'm going with Houston because they are 4-2 so far as the favorite, and even though Vandy is 4-1-1 as a dog, they've played teams like Mizzou and South Carolina that have zero offensive firepower.

Tennessee @ Kentucky -9: I like TENNESSEE - 9 in this game. Kentucky is awful against the spread this year. 1-4 at home, 2-5 overall. Tennessee is 2-1 as a favorite, 1-0-1 on the road. Yes, it's two scores and that gives me pause, but I think Tennessee has finally settled into a role for Josh Dobbs that works, and their defense is improving against the run.

SEC Week 9 Preview: Georgia v. Florida

It's that time again. Time for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! But unlike the last few years, this game will likely determine the winner of the SEC East instead of Mizzouri back-dooring their way to the Georgia Dome.

I'm hearing a lot of comments about how Georgia has no chance in this game, and that Florida is going to stomp them, and how many fans are selling their tickets. I've been going to the game for 15 years, so I can understand the sentiment. The walk out of Jacksonville Stadium after a loss is unlike any walk in college football. It's horrifically tragic as you shuffle past the Florida fans screaming all kinds of Hell at you, and another year of knowing your season is likely over. But the win? The walking out win is just as opposite of a high. Fans chanting it's great to be a Georgia Bulldog all the way down the ramps as you spill out into the streets to "destroy some property tonight." In the words of the departed Larry Munson.

But this isn't an article about why I'm going to the game, and I am. Again. This is a preview of the game and why I think it's closer than many fans who've given up might believe. For starters, Vegas has set the line at -3 in favor of Florida, which means that the money setters don't think this is a blowout. Now many of you will say that Vegas also set the Alabama line with Georgia as a favorite, but remember that was before Georgia had played a single opponent that was worth a damn, and Alabama was coming off a direct loss. Vegas sets the line based on expectation early, and on results later.

Outside of Vegas, let's take a look at some of the factors in the game.

Quarterbacks:

Georgia has Greyson Lambert, the much maligned up-and-down transfer that's often proving to be a major liability throwing the ball against good defenses. Florida is on their second-string QB, Treon Harris, who just happened to be the QB that destroyed Georgia in that ass-whipping last year. Normally, I'd say that the more experienced QB would give Georgia an edge, but anybody who has watched Greyson play outside the South Carolina game knows that's not true. Greyson on film has the deer-in-the-headlights look when things start to go wrong, and his fatal flaw is that he starts to get happy feet and short-arm passes into the legs of receivers or the dirt. Florida's defense is certainly strong enough to give him a headache, but more on that later.

Harris could barely throw the ball when he played against Georgia last year. He was mostly a mobile threat who was helping the Gators run for 400+ yards on the Dawgs. Now? I watched him play in the LSU game, and even though he came out on the losing end, he looks like a much improved passer. Yes, he's still mobile, but he's using that to his advantage in the passing game rather than just a primary ability. Several plays feature Harris on the bootleg rollout, where he can survey the downfield receivers and make throws on the run. He's got a good enough arm to hit his guys in stride, or pull it down and take off with his speed on the outside. It will be Hell on the Georgia defense trying to contain this kid. ADVANTAGE: Florida.

Runningbacks:

Nick Chubb's knee isn't going to be better any time soon, which means that Sony Michel is now the primary back for UGA. That's a downgrade from Chubb, and there's no way to sugar-coat that. However, Sony is a good runner in his own right, and he's very shifty where Chubb can just bust one right over the the top of you. Shifty may be better against this defense, because the Florida bigs aren't going to get bowled over any time soon. Still Sony can turn the corner with the best of them, and if he gets lose, nobody will catch him.

Florida will throw Kelvin Taylor, son of pro Fred Taylor, at the Dawgs. While I loved the pedigree, I've been completely unimpressed by the kid every time I've seen him play. And with good reason. To put it mildly, Taylor will only get you as many yards as are blocked. That means that when the hole is there, he's hitting it, but he's not the type of back who makes many people miss. It shows up in his stats too, as he's only a 3.6 yards per carry guy as the primary ball-carrier. However, in short yardage scenarios near the goal loan or on conversions, Taylor can very much get the job done. He's got the TDs to prove it. Still, I think Georgia has the better back even as the backup. ADVANTAGE: Georgia

Receivers:

Georgia has Malcolm Mitchell. And that's about it. The rest of the receivers have been hot garbage for the most part, and made Lambert look way worse than he should when he's holding the ball too long. Terry Godwin sort of emerged as a target against Missouri, but that's because Missouri was trying to shut down Mitchell, who is the only real home run threat the Dawgs have.

Florida has Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Callaway, Jake McGee and Brandon Powell. None of them are better than Mitchell, but all of them are better than anything else that UGA will put out on the field. They run decent routes, manage to get to the middle of the zone effectively, and they can make life much easier for Harris as a group. ADVANTAGE: Florida

Defense:

Do I really need to go into depth? Pick any game and watch Florida's defense. Then watch the trainwreck that is Georgia on defense the second they face an opponent with a winning record. Even against the best runningback in the league, Florida managed to keep the game close and "contain" Leonard Fournette to a mild 180 yards and 2 TDs. But the game came down to a fake field goal. And Florida's defense is giving up 18 points a game against winning teams. Georgia is giving up 38 a game. ADVANTAGE: Florida

Florida wins if:

They run the ball down Georgia's throat and use Treon Harris in a run-pass option that keeps the Georgia defenders confused all day. Which hopefully won't be easy since Georgia remembers all too well how many running yards they gave up last year. Make no mistake, Georgia can't score enough points on Florida if they can put up 28 on the board. Their defense will cover the rest, and it should be close enough that they will have to.

Georgia Wins if:

They turn Florida over, and Greyson Lambert has the game of his life. Yes, it's going to take that I think. I don't believe an average performance by the QB will win this game. I also don't think it's impossible either if the UGA receivers can actually catch the ball. I've seen Lambert in games look like he knows exactly what he wants to do, but he needs the support of his ground game and his play-caller to not put him in terrible positions. I think Florida knows that Georgia wants to run, and they'll do everything to shut that down, making Lambert beat them. And to do that, Lambert will have to have a big day moving the chains, and converting in the end zone.

Picks on Thursday this time, since I'm heading out of town. And hopefully I won't make the mistake of picking Missouri anymore, who gave Vandy their first SEC win in forever. Idiots. Not that I'm bitter.

Ok, maybe a little.

SEC Picks Week 8!

Last week I finally broke through with a winning week and picked up a unit. So we're 2 units under going into Week 8, and looking to break through into the black. Here we go!

2 Unit plays:

Missouri @ Vanderbilt +2.5: I like MISSOURI -2.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is amazing. Their offense is horrific. However, Vandy's offense is also horrific, and they might be starting a freshman QB as well for the first time. With that in mind, I think even Missouri can win a game 3-0. 

1 Unit Plays:

Tennessee @ Alabama -15.5: I like TENNESSEE +15.5 in this game. It's just too many points for me when Tennessee has been playing everyone close, and Alabama honestly has been better on the road than inside their own building. Not sure why that is, but Alabama hasn't covered much at home, so I'm going with a confident Tennessee team to keep it within 2 scores.

Auburn @ Arkansas -6.5: I like AUBURN +6.5 in this game. I know it hasn't seemed like Auburn can find their butts with both hands, but I'm even less convinced that Arkansas knows what they are doing now that they 2-4 on the season. I'm never going to lay points on a team with 2 wins after 6 games. Ever.

Texas A&M @ Ole Miss -5.5: I like OLE MISS -5.5 in this game. It's less than a TD, and Ole Miss while they did lose to Memphis and Florida, they did it on the road. Texas A&M hasn't played a true road game in a hostile stadium yet. With that in mind and a low home spread, I'm betting on a rebel bounce-back and an A&M road flop.

Kentucky @ Mississippi State -12: I like KENTUCKY +12 in this game. Kentucky likes to hang around. And Mississippi State couldn't win by more than 8 against an Auburn team that at the time could barely function. I'm taking the points, even if Kentucky is attached to them.

SEC Preview Week 8: Tennessee v. Alabama

It’s been several weeks of looking at film now, and I’ve had several requests to switch up the tactics on the blog a bit. I tend to agree that after a while, just going over film seems redundant, so starting this week I’m taking my game film looks and projecting more on forward looking previews of the upcoming biggest games. With that in mind, I’m starting with the matchup between Alabama and Tennessee this weekend on CBS at 3:30PM EST.

Alabama Strengths:

Alabama is coming off a rather simple looking win against a Texas A&M team that never stood a chance against their running attack or their defense. And those elements of rushing and defense just happen to be the strongest points of Alabama right now. In the game against A&M, Derrick Henry went off for 236 yards on 32 carries and 2 TDs. In the first TD he scored, he busted loose for 55 yards and made the A&M defense look absolutely ridiculous.

But the true ridiculousness was what the Alabama secondary put on A&M’s passing attack. I’ve said before that I think the secondary was an issue. They still may have problems against a higher tempo team, but right now they are coming together in a hurry, and a lot of that is the play of Minkah Fitzpatrick who had 2 pick-6’s in the game. Couple that with the fact that the Alabama run defense has been stingy all year, and you’re left with very few options on how to advance the ball.

Alabama Weaknesses:

Yes, they have them. For one, turnovers have been an issue with the Tide before, and it’s the reason they lost that game against Ole Miss. Alabama’s 12^th in most turnovers given away in the SEC, but they are 4^th in turnover margin because they can take so many back on their own side. However, if you can get Alabama to fumble the ball, or force their QB Jake Coker to make some bad downfield decisions, you can beat them handily by capitalizing on the errors. Still, Coker is improving game to game, and his downfield passing attack has been getting better since torching UGA in that downpour. 

Against A&M he was basically meaningless because the Aggies couldn’t stop the run, so they never really had to use him as a threat. However, he can make mistakes if pushed and pressured. I’m not sure that Coker can’t go from asset to liability in the blink of an eye.

The other big weakness for Alabama is something I don’t usually see out of a Nick Saban team, and that’s penalties. Did you know that Alabama is 13^th in the SEC in most penalty yards a game, followed by LSU at 14^th? And yet those teams both look like they will be playing each other for the SEC West title. By contrast, their opponent Tennessee is least penalized, and it hasn’t helped them defeat many SEC teams this year. So perhaps it’s an overblown stat, but I can’t help but think that as you advance, every penalty becomes larger. And undisciplined teams make more mistakes.

Tennessee Strengths:

Honestly, Tennessee’s biggest strength in my eyes is that they know how to move the ball well. That doesn’t translate to scoring points as often as it should, but they 4^th in the SEC in yardage and extremely balanced between the run and pass. Jalen Hurd can get tough yardage when they need it, and Josh Dobbs is mobile enough to make people miss in the middle of the field on the run as well. Plus, if Josh can get his first read open, he’s more than capable of making the early throw before taking off.

Tennessee Weaknesses:

There’s a lot more of these unfortunately. Get Dobbs to a second read and watch the carnage. Pressure him all day and see how fast that confidence from the UGA game crumbles. Also, Hurd has plenty of muscle to get extra yards, but he’s not Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb that can create space and make everyone on a good defense miss. He’s a good running back right now with the potential to be great if he can get some more blocking help.

The defense for Tennessee is also a problem in that they can’t get other teams off the field consistently enough. Tennessee’s 13^th in yardage, tied for 12^th in points against. And the horrifying thing is they haven’t really played that many good offenses yet. Georgia proved they aren’t worth a damn against a Missouri team that held them to 9 points, and they managed to put up 31 on that Tennessee defense.

Also, the Tennessee team has been notorious this season for not being able to close out games. Georgia was the exception to the rule as Dobbs had a career day shredding that Dawg defense. But against OU, Florida, and Arkansas? Fourth quarter failures and two TD blown leads were the norm. The upside for Tennessee is that Alabama isn’t likely to give them a big lead to lose. So maybe that’s a positive given how they came back on Georgia.

Alabama Wins If:

They run the ball down Tennessee’s throat and don’t turn it over. Simple as that. You don’t need to fling it much against Tennessee to beat their defense, and Alabama isn’t know for doing that. I seriously doubt that Hurd is going to find any space against this Bama front, since nobody else has. With that in mind, it’s doing to fall to Dobbs to win the game for Tennessee, and I’ve seen what happens when a mediocre QB has to try and get one-dimensional against Alabama. It’s pick-6 city all day long.

Tennessee Wins if:

Jake Coker gets cocky and starts making mistakes, and they sell out to stop Derrick Henry. Tennessee will only win this game if it’s ugly. I’m talking like 16-13 kind of ugly. Tennessee needs for Alabama to try to grind, and make life hell on that strategy. They want the ball in Coker’s hands and they want Lane Kiffin to get frustrated enough to try something dumb. All that CAN happen, and if it does you just need Dobbs to make some plays late like he did in the UGA game. Basically, Tennessee wants the ball with 2 minutes left and a chance to win the game with a TD. IF that happens? I think they can get it.

Picks on Friday, I’ll let you know which way I’m leaning against the spread. This has the potential to be a fun game to watch, or a complete asswhipping you turn off in the 3^rd quarter. We’ll know by halftime I think.

SEC Picks Week 7!

Alright, so we lost another unit last week with the Dawgs blowing a 21 point lead. So I'm feeling a bit snakebit. Change of tactics though, I'm going to go straight 1 unit bets this week and see how we roll. Let's hit it!

1 Unit Plays:

Alabama @ Texas A&M +4 - I like ALABAMA -4 in this game. The majority of the public would swing to A&M given what we've seen, but they are mostly untested in the SEC and Alabama's offense is getting stronger.

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -3.5 - I like VANDERBILT +3.5 in this game. South Carolina is bad. That should be reason enough. Now with a new coach in interim? I'm just going with that as a reason to be against them.

Missouri @ Georgia -16.5 - I like MISSOURI +16.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is great and the Dawgs offense is one-dimensional. If the Dawgs can score more than 30 points they will cover easily, but Missouri has only allowed 21 as a max this season.

Florida @ LSU -7 - I like LSU -7 in this game. I would normally take Florida, but the suspension puts me off them untilt hey can prove they can win with their updated offense. And I know Florida doesn't run the ball well.

Let's go get em!

LSU Tigers v. South Carolina Gamecocks: Week 6

I made the decision that I'm going to follow the two best teams in the East and the West weekly in these breakdowns, and whatever teams they happen to be playing going forward, because it's honestly about who is going to make it to the Dome. In that regard, the current East leader is Florida, and the current West leader is LSU. If they are off or lose, I'll take on the next teams down for parity sake. But if your team has two losses right now? I don't see much point in putting them in the discussion currently.

With that said, LSU looked amazing on the ground against South Carolina on their way to a 45-24 win, and that should come as no surprise. South Carolina made everyone look good this year, and that's partly why Steve Spurrier finally decided to retire mid-year. However, there's another story to this game, and it's not one you'll hear much about unless you watched it or you're an LSU fan. The starting Fullback and lead blocker for LSU, John David Moore, went down with a knee injury that could sideline him for 3-4 weeks. He's the main blocker that springs #7 Leonard Fournette out of the power-I formation. That had major consequences in this game as they had to replace Moore with #47 Bry'Kiethon Mouton (real name, yes) and he looked woefully unprepared to make the key blocks. It's probably why they took Fournette out at the half and barely let him play at all in the third and fourth quarters.

One thing I really wanted to see from this LSU team is how their passing game is developing, because at the beginning of the season it was non-existant. At no point in their first five wins did LSU throw for more than 100 yards. So against what is arguably the worst defense in the SEC, how would they fare? Answer, just fine. Not great, but fine. QB Brandon Harris was able to fling it around for 228 yards and 2 TDs, which is unfortunately pretty average against this SC defense. I noticed that Harris does do very well on early quick reads and passes, and even managed to make an NFL-style fade route throw to his best receiver Malachi Dupre for a TD. Dupre is the obvious go-to for Harris, so if you're game-planning against LSU on the pass (as if you would have the time after worrying about Fournette) then he's the guy you attempt to take away.

Fournette continues to be as advertised, making tough runs in the middle, shedding blockers, and putting his foot in the ground while making people miss. His lone TD on the 158 yard day was a long 87 yard run after his made two secondary players miss to the outside, cut it back in, and then was off to the races. Normally, a secondary player can chase down a guy of Fournette's size, but he just turned on the jets and never looked back. If he's even, he's leaving as they say. But even after Fournette went out, #5 Darrius Guice (pronounced G-ICE like mice, the names on this team are insane, thanks Cajuns) went off for 161 yards of his own pretty much all in the second half. LSU can run in any down and formation, but they seem to love to go power-I strong side on first down and beat you to death for 3-4 yards minimum. At 2nd and medium, it's anybody's guess, and that's what makes the offense flow so well.

However, the downside to LSU's offense is that if you get them in longer downs, they are hosed. They look almost as bad as a Georgia Tech team trying to throw the ball at times with Harris' accuracy issues. Yes, Harris CAN make throws, but the longer a play goes, the chances of a good pass almost approach zero. The only option after 3-4 seconds for Harris is to take off running, which he is actually pretty good at. But you do not want him throwing on the run. That way lies madness. What that does bring up to me as a fan though is how LSU will react when a stellar defense takes the run away. I've watched Alabama and Florida play, and they are both quite capable of shutting down the running aspect of your team. If you make Harris have to win? I think that's where LSU falls apart.

The other glaring weakness is that LSU's secondary looks woeful. They let South Carolina put up two very bad secondary breakdown TD's on them, and each time it was because they were completely out of position. #13 Dwayne Thomas has an especially tough day, but he was covering Pharoh Cooper most of the time. Granted, Pharoh Cooper is a stud athlete and can make people look silly, but this is South Carolina's offense we're talking about with their 2nd string QB. And they managed to put up more points on LSU than they have on any SEC team so far, including Kentucky. That's not a good sign for this defense, which I expected to look better. Even worse, they got no real sacks or pressure on the SC QB until the very end of the game. I was wondering if maybe Les Miles is playing possum knowing they have Florida next week, but then I remember Les Miles probably isn't that smart.

The other issue for LSU was special teams. They got torched by South Carolina for a kickoff return TD, and then in the second half they gave up a surprise onside kick, but it was called back due to SC being offsides. Still, it's not a good look. They need to shore that up or they'll find themselves on the losing end of a bad special teams play very soon.

Overall though? LSU can run that rock. And if you can't stop them from running it, you're in for a very long day of watching #7 run around, over, or through you. Still, I'm not sure we're looking at the SEC champion in LSU unless the passing game continues to develop. Because at some point the running game won't work, or the defense will give up too many plays in a shootout, and they'll have to play catchup. And what then?

I guess we'll find out if it ever happens.

Florida Gators v. Missouri Tigers: Week 6 Analysis

Originally, I didn't think I'd look at this tape because Will Grier the Florida QB has been suspended for the season. So, anything we see here is going to be way different than the game against LSU which I plan on reviewing. However, I haven't done much for Mizzou this year, so I figured I'd take a look at their young freshman QB, and their overall defensive structure. Sorry Florida fans, but I'll get to you next week when you play LSU.

Let's begin with the stuff most people want to hear about, the Missouri QB Drew Lock. He's a true freshman who was pressed into service by coach Gary Pinkel because his veteran QB Maty Mauk decided to break some rules. What rules I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that Gary was sick enough of Maty to let a true freshman play QB, so I'm guessing Maty got drunk and tried to violate one of his houseplants or something.

Anyway, Drew Lock's main attraction is that he's got a great arm. At times during the broadcast Jesse Palmer was giving him high praise as having an NFL-style cannon. I'm not sure it's THAT good, but he can certainly air it out. And that's both a blessing and a curse. Because he's a true freshman, he doesn't have all the touch accuracy that you'd expect from a true starting college QB, and that led him to have several overthrows in this game. That would be the tendency when you're a gunslinger because you know you're not going to short-hop any receivers. As Lock learns to control the cannon, he'll find it easier to put those throws on the money.

The other thing about Lock is that he looks like he's 12. You see him in the helmet and you think he's going to sell you chocolate bars for the band. And his youth really worked against him in another way in this game, because Florida's pass rush is relentless. One way to really disrupt a young passer is to get him off his spot in the pocket. I admire how Lock naturally moves and keeps his eyes downfield, but he's nowhere near experienced enough yet to make the throw on the run with consistency. That will come with time, but probably not during this season. However, if he's facing a team that doesn't move him? Like South Carolina for example? He looks like a world-beater making dink and dunk passes as will. It's death by 1000 cuts, and with the defense that Missouri has, paper cuts could be enough.

In essence, Lock is young. But the Missouri defense is not. And they are fierce. They spotted Florida 14 points very early on incredibly stupid personal foul penalties for a late hit and a face mask that kept drives alive. If they don't take those? I think the game likely goes to the half tied 3-3. The other Florida TD was on a pick 6, and that was the final score 21-3. To put it another way, after going down 14-3 in the first 10 minutes of the game, the Missouri defense allowed absolutely no offensive scores for the rest of the game. 50 minutes of pure defensive shutout. And that's not abnormal, as they lead the SEC in defensive points allowed. Ahead of even LSU and Alabama.

But why is the defense so good? Mainly because they trust the secondary, their entirely lineman are huge, and they have speed on the edges. And by trust their secondary, I mean they will press up on the line against receivers and take away the quick throws. Plus, and here's a big key, they can actually TACKLE. That sounds stupid, but if you're an SEC fan of a bad defense, you know exactly how huge that is with college players. Making one-on-one tackles, playing contain until you get some help, and having your secondary get involved in run defense? Those are hallmarks of this Missouri team, and they all showed up in the game against Florida.

A few defensive players made me stand up and take notice in this game, the first of which was #97 Josh Augusta. The dude is absolute enormous in the middle and a huge help as a space-eater and in run defense. He's 6'4" and listed at 335 pounds. I'm not sure I believe he's less than 350 just looking at him. Next is #91 DE Charles Harris, who had a sack in the game and 6 tackles. He's 6'2" and 255 pounds with good speed and agility. Harris has the ability to shed blocks with straight ahead moves, or in the case of his sack a very impressive inside spin-move. The last guy was #11 Aarion Penton, their best DB in my mind. He was involved everywhere, making tackles in the run game, breaking up passes, and making tackles on the edge, even blitzing at times.

But if the defense is this good, why are they losing games? Because the offense is a youthful looking train wreck. While Lock is learning his craft at QB, he's unfortunately saddled with several WR's who are just as young and learning their way. Talented? Sure. But talent doesn't help you figure out how to run the best routes. That comes from experience and coaching, both of which Gary Pinkel hasn't had the time yet to drill into this receiving core. They have size, all over 6'2", but most of their moves are straight ahead, relying on their body position to make plays. That works in high school. It doesn't work in college against teams with a pulse. Their best receiver is probably #2 Nate Brown with 4 TDs and 200+ yards on the season, but he's just a first year starting sophomore that had only one catch all day against this Florida defense. Against any and all secondaries with real talent, expect these guys to struggle.

The running game isn't much better. #21 Ish Witter is their main runningback, and Florida absolutely shut him down. Frankly, I wasn't impressed with the kid at all. Again, he's a starting sophomore with no real experience, but that doesn't usually stop runningbacks from showing something on film. The guy that DID show me something was #32 Russell Hansbrough. I'd be giving that guy more carries going forward if I'm running the show at Missouri. He's quick, hits the hole well, and managed to find several open spaces against a tough Florida run defense. He had a 26 yard run as his long in the game, and he averaged over 8 yards a carry. Yet, he only had 9 touches in the game for reasons unknown to me.

Overall, the main takeaway I have with Missouri is that the defense looks seasoned, tough, and ready to rumble. The offense looks the exact opposite: young, weak, and easily put off the field. If you're playing Missouri, you want to play them now rather than later, because every game Lock and these receivers put under their belt is going to make them better. I wouldn't be shocked if they get to a bowl game that Missouri finally puts it together and starts scoring some points.

SEC Picks: Week Six

I'll start by saying that if Ole Miss didn't completely crap out last week, I would have been up 6 units on my picks. Instead, I was even. Again. So frustrating. I won't be even this week though, because I'm picking an odd number of games. Time to break that streak and get on the winning side!

There's a lot of odd spreads this week, so we're going to keep the action lighter than most.

2 Unit plays:

Georgia @ Tennessee +3 - I like GEORGIA -3 in this game. I'm not sure why the line is so close, but I think it's because Georgia got smashed in their last game and confidence is low. However, Tennessee is dead last in the SEC in defensive yardage, and 9th against the run. Given that Tennessee has struggled to close games, I think Georgia can get the win and the cover here.

1 Unit plays:

Florida @ Missouri +4 - I like FLORIDA -4 in this game. While Missouri found a better QB against South Carolina, several teams have proven they can move the ball on the Gamecocks. Moving it on Florida is a different animal, and Will Grier the Florida QB is riding higher than he's ever ridden before. The short passing game is the difference in this one.

Arkansas @ Alabama -16.5 - I like ALABAMA -16.5 in this game. I hate the spread in this game or it would be 2 units, but any time you have more than 14 points against Arkansas, you have to take pause. Their biggest loss is 11. However, they've only played teams with high passing attacks and very little running offense. They also haven't played a huge defensive line yet either. This could be their first taste of a beatdown.

South Carolina @ LSU -19.5 - I like LSU -19.5 in this game. The spread would have been -13.5 in Columbia, but it's much larger here and therefore takes this to a 1-unit play. Still, South Carolina was on the receiving end of a butt-kicking by UGA, who has a very similar offensive style to LSU. And LSU's defense is even better.

Ole Miss and MS State are playing garbage, while Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky are all on off-weeks.

Ole Miss Rebels v. Florida Gators: Week 5 Analysis

Apparently, the Gators had the flu for this game. If that's what the flu can do for your team, I hope the Bulldogs catch it just in time for the annual Cocktail Party. Alas, I think that storyline was probably overblown, because the group that looked like it had the flu was the Ole Miss offensive line. Which is really bizarre because it was supposed to be the Gators patchwork offensive line that struggled. Not so in this blowout that saw the Gators up 38-3 before Ole Miss got a garbage TD late.

Let's start by looking at the Gators. Defensively, I think you know what they are by now. The one thing that the Gators can hang their hat on is having some big push up front and their pass rush is relentless. One of their biggest threats, #90 Jonathan Bullard, is an absolute game-wrecker in the middle and on the edge. He's huge, 6-3 283 lbs., and he's experienced as a senior. If you don't game plan for him, you're going to be in huge trouble, and Ole Miss was in huge trouble. Add to that #94 Bryan Cox getting in on the fumble action, and it was a two-man wrecking crew getting to Chad Kelly all night long.

The Gators held the previously high-flying Rebels to just 10 points, 5-14 on 3rd down, and 4 turnovers. That's good enough to win almost any game, but the Gators decided to have the best offensive night of their lives as well. Will Grier was out of his mind passing the ball hitting almost everything he threw, 24-29 with 4 TDs and 271 yards. Now, if you just look at those numbers you'd think BEST QB IN THE SEC RIGHT NOW!

But you'd be dead wrong. Grier has several really fundamental flaws in his game, and it's only a matter of time until somebody (I'm very much looking at you LSU) completely exploits them. Start by watching the way Grier throws the ball. I'm not kidding when I say that 80% of the time I watched him pass, he's either jumping or throwing off his back foot. The kid's footwork is horrific, and once you notice it, it's the only thing you'll see. The first TD is a great example of this. Grier is about to get popped right in the middle, so he throws deep over the middle off his back foot into double coverage. It's the same play that 95% of the time leads to an interception. In this case though, Ole Miss's vaunted land shark defense completely over pursued, and got beat deep. Senior DB Mike Hilton was the one who messed it up, and I can only assume it was because the throw was so out of place he got confused.

It doesn't stop there with Grier though, he's getting most of his yardage on short and middle level throws. The Jim McElwain offense relys heavily on TE play, and they run formations with them bunched in tight sets quite often. Note if you are playing the Gators, Will Grier is not adept throwing the ball deep. Why? Because he's off his back foot all the time. So there's no reason to worry about really deep coverage most of the time (unless you completely botch safety coverage, see prior paragraph) because he underthrows it constantly, and because the Gator offensive line won't give him time to do it. Instead, the tendency is to throw within the first 2 seconds to a hot read, and then watch the fireworks.

This leads me to Ole Miss's defense. Holy hell Ole Miss D-Coordinator, I'd seriously consider firing you for this gameplan. Even I picked up on the fact that about one quarter in to the game, it's mainly just Florida throwing to tight-ends and screens and middle-level short passes. But what did they do? THEY KEPT PLAYING SOFT ZONE. It was maddening. I'm screaming at the TV that they need to man the heck up and get on the line, because they were getting dinked and dunked to death by Grier. And finally they got burned on the third TD because #30 AJ Moore took a horrific angle on a crossing route, Grier dumped him the ball 8 yards down the field, and the rest was watching the Gators Brandon Powell run 77 yards as the announcers blared, "IF HE'S EVEN, HE'S LEAVING!"

And yet, Ole Miss wouldn't cover the tight ends. They wouldn't play tight on the line in man. They would run free from the line with 5-6 yard passes, over and over and over again. The Gators running game is okay but it's far from impressive. They only had 84 yards on 34 attempts. That's less than 2.5 per carry. In fact, Florida's running offense is rated 12th in the conference. So why would I even worry about it as a DC? I'd plan my entire attack on making Grier think, and throw off his back foot right to my guys. Instead, it looked like Ole Miss didn't play enough coverage, went too soft, and got burned by the volume passing attack.

But the game wouldn't have gone wrong if not for all the Ole Miss offensive mistakes. This actually rivaled the Alabama game in terms of hideous self-inflicted wounds, expect this time is was Ole Miss on the receiving end. The Football Gods giveth, and they cruelly taketh away inside the Swamp. It started with a really bad exchange between QB Chad Kelly and his running back, the ball popping straight into the air and right into a Florida defender's hands. It got worse in the next possessions as they had a drive killing snap over Kelly's head that went 15 yards the wrong direction. Then, Ole Miss after a really long drive, they bogged down in the red zone and tried a field goal down 13-0, and missed it. Much like the Georgia game, domino after domino kept falling until eventually Ole Miss was playing in a mess of their own design.

But if you think Grier was the better QB in this game, you're nuts. Chad Kelly is amazingly talented, and he was the singular thing that was working for Ole Miss on this entire night. His offensive line constantly hung him out to dry. I counted 18 times when they completely outright missed tackles, or in some cases when a line rusher came free because two linemen were blocking the same guy! It's okay to do a double-team if everyone is accounted for. When they aren't, you look like morons. That was the real disaster for Ole Miss, and that's the one thing that can be a huge issue going for them long term. When they run into a fast defense that can abuse the line on the pass rush? They are in some big trouble.

Still, Kelly went 26-40 for 269, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 40 yards on the ground. In a loss. He was the lead rusher as well. When I watch Kelly play I'm impressed not only by how tough the kid is running the ball and escaping the absolute disaster of a line he was playing behind, but I'm also amazed that he's one of the few QBs in the SEC who can make a read. His feet are always moving, he's in good positions in the pocket when there is one, and he can go through a full progression. He actually looks like what you'd think of as an NFL-style passer. He's not there yet obviously, but the tools are there for him to keep improving. And why not? He's the nephew of famed NFL QB Jim Kelly, so he probably knows exactly where to go for great passing tips. Plus he has another year left of eligibility to continue to get better.

Is Ole Miss suddenly bad after beating a great Alabama team? Was that a fluke? If you believe that you're an idiot. They have probably the best QB in the SEC, the best receiver in the SEC in Treadwell (who they absolutely didn't use enough), and one of the best defenders in the country in Robert Nkimdiche. But Florida had the better plan and it they won the game because it their coaching approaching and execution. Ole Miss has all the pieces to be spectacular if they can make some adjustments in the coaching department. And I absolutely do question their coaching decisions, and their approach. Especially not defending the line and going into soft zone.

At some point as the Ole Miss coaches, you had to realize the running game was not working, yet they refused to abandon it even down 25-0. Ole Miss actually got to the goal line at one point, and instead of passing like what got them there, they ran 3 straight plays right into the teeth of the Florida defense. Stupid. And then they kicked a field goal? You're down 25-0, and you're one of the better 4th down teams in the conference, and you...KICKED A FIELD GOAL? How gutless is that? The coaches need to reevaluate why they are out there if that's the best you can do. What? Afraid of a shutout? Get real, you go for the TD. And for that matter after you kicker missed the first short one, I'm shocked it was even on the table as an option.

Ole Miss has 2 cupcakes before they play Texas A&M, and I can't wait to see how they rebound in that game. Florida has Missouri and LSU on the road next, and I believe fully that Missouri sets up completely as a trap game for Florida. They are fast, they are well-coached, and they have suddenly found a QB over at Missouri that looks like he's not just a gun-slinging idiot. That might be more of a game than the analysts think.

Alabama Crimson Tide v. Georgia Bulldogs: Week 5 Analysis

I'm doing two games this week, and lucky me, the first one is the Georgia massacre that rivaled the 2008 blackout game in Athens against Alabama. I was there in the stands for most of it. I'm not ashamed to say I left that trainwreck after it was 31-3, but I didn't miss much. The outcome was already a forgone conclusion with Alabama winning 38-10.

So with that said, I take my fan hat off and put my analyst hat on to review the film. Like many people who watch such a one-sided game, you completely forget the circumstances both good and bad that led to the outcome. All you remember is the feeling of despair or elation depending what side you happen on be on. That euphoria or depression can often color the game in tones that aren't 100% accurate. That's why it's good to take a second look, no matter how painful.

One thing I'd immediately forgotten is how good the game started for Georgia. Even though they didn't get a first down on the first possession, they turned over Alabama with a fumble and had the ball in opposing territory. But they couldn't seem to get any push up front in the run game, and QB Greyson Lambert kept missing open guys that could have been huge plays. In the first possession he underthrew a wide open Malcom Mitchell that would have been a 30 yard play, and in the second possession he completely didn't see a wide open Nick Chubb streaking across the middle that would have gone for at least 25 yards if not more. Instead he checked it down and ran out of bounds. Making those plays really would have changed the complexion of the game.

But no matter how the game started it was a see-saw ugly offensive affair until the second quarter. With the score 3-3 and 12 minutes left in the half, it looked like anybody's game. Exactly 17 minutes later in game time with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was 38-3 and Alabama took their foot off the gas. That's right, 35 points in 17 game minutes. That's over 2 points a minute. Even TCU can't put up that kind of offense across the board. And what's worse, Saban actually took pity on the Bulldogs, calling off his offense, and running out the clock with run plays for the rest of the game. They never scored again after getting to 38 with 25 minutes left in the game, and they didn't have to.

How did it go so wrong so fast? It wasn't just one thing. It was like watching dominos slowly fall over in a cascading series of lines until eventually it's 1000 lines of dominos clacking away, echoing the sound and fury of your impending doom. The first domino was Derrick Henry running for a touchdown to make it 10-3. That happened because Alabama's Center, Ryan Kelly who I've remarked about as one of their best blockers in previous posts, put the wood to two Dawgs lineman in the middle and swung open a hole that only #51 Jake Ganus could have filled. Instead, he overpursued and got blasted out of the way while Derrick Henry strolled through the tulips.

The next domino came in what I think of as the defining point of the game, the blocked punt by Alabama for the TD. Georgia's #91 who is a defensive end but for some reason blocks on punts, completely looked the wrong way as Minkah Fitzpatrick came free on the right side with the block, scoop, and score. After that, the next domino it was Jake Coker going deep to Calvin Ridley for a 45 yard TD as coverage completely broke down with #35 Aaron Davis and #20 Quincey Mauger. Both of those secondary players for Georgia had a horrific day. By that point all the dominos were falling and Georgia was powerless to stop it. If I'm watching film as Tennessee I'm telling Josh Dobbs to find #35 and light him up.

But it wasn't over. Brice Ramsey came in as QB for Georgia and immediately threw a Pick 6 right over the middle to make it 31-3. It was one of the dumbest throws you'll ever see. If you were one of those people who wondered why Georgia never started Ramsey, this is why. He's an idiot. You can't make that throw in high school, let along in the rain, down 21 points, over the middle, with the safety literally standing by himself between the hashes. It's crap they teach QBs the moment they learn to throw. Don't throw late across your body, and don't throw deep middle with a safety sitting between the hashmarks.

The reason Brice came into the game is because Greyson Lambert looked completely shell shocked. He went from making some short throws and barely missing targets to suddenly one-hopping passes and completely missing receivers by the end of the second half. Basically, he looked like a guy from UVA who realized he was actually playing in the SEC against Alabama. I don't blame Richt for making the change because Lambert mentally was toast. I do blame Richt for making the change to Brice instead of Bauta, because Brice has never been responsible with the ball while Bauta was known for his work ethic and intelligence, just not his gunner arm. I'd have prefered the game manager at the point to calm things down, not the gunslinger who lost the game.

Make no mistake, Alabama won this game in all phases. They dominated the line of scrimmage, the passing game, the running game, and special games. They had almost every version of a TD you can think of except the sack-fumble score. And the MVP of the game for me was QB Jake Coker. He was looking off safeties, making great decisions, and finding the open man with ease. On the TD pass he stood in the pocket and got blasted, but absolutely delivered on a dime for that 45 yard score. Coker looked like the guy I was so impressed with against Wisconsin, and the Alabama defense looked more dominant than I'd seen it all season. Oh and Alabama fans who hate Lane Kiffin? He called a masterful game. I don't like the guy but even I can see how good he is when the offense is working the way he wants it.

However, the rain played a factor in that, and I think Georgia panicked because of it. Georgia coaches realized that in a rain-soaked game, they were subject to getting dump-trucked by Alabama's bigger, more aggressive lineman. They were correct. The problem was they put the game in the hands of Lambert, who was woefully unqualified in his first game against real competition to handle that kind of responsibility. And so Georgia got trampled, and Alabama looked like world-beaters the week after looking completely inept against Ole Miss.

Now, many Alabama supporters will say since Ole Miss lost to Florida and they dominated Georgia that they Ole Miss loss was a fluke. Not really in my estimation. If anything I'd say the Georgia blowout was the fluke. In a good weather game, or in a dome, I don't think this game goes anything like what we saw. Alabama was getting tested and getting beaten by Malcolm Mitchell on #26 Marlon Humphrey, but the rain was making it impossible for Lambert to get him the ball. In fact, the ball actually slipped completely out of Lambert's hands at one point and flew backwards.

Alabama is and always be bigger. If you get into an ass-kicking contest with them, you shall find you ass-kicked. That's just weight, height, and physics. HOWEVER, if you get into a speed contest with them and test them on the outside with a spread? It's a different ballgame. And Alabama has at least 2 of those games left, along with another interestingly fast team in LSU who runs a variation of the run-option with one of the more talented RB's in the country.

Georgia is also not as bad as they looked. I think this game was a series of events that just led the kids involved to completely get caught in quicksand and give up. A lot of that hangs on the coaches for not having them better prepared, but more of it hangs on the coaches for putting in a gameplan that was completely unfeasible. You were never going to beat Alabama with Greyson Lambert. Better to let Nick Chubb run it 30 times and see what happened, grinding it out with punts and field position, than to try and fling it around and bury yourself in a blowout. Like they say in baseball to pitchers, you never want to get beat on your 2nd best pitch.

But while Georgia wasn't as bad in all facets, the offensive line absolutely was. That's my biggest concern about Georgia going forward when they get ready to face a tough defensive line in Tennessee, and an even tougher defensive line in Florida. Guys like #73 Greg Pyke, #75 Kolton Houston, and the new Center #54 Brandon Kublanow? They were getting tossed around like rag dolls on rollerskates. And that's a huge problem considering that it's a new QB and a new center at Georgia. When you're not on the same page, things unravel just like they did in this game.

Next up, the Dogs face Tennesse, and Alabama faces a down Arkansas team. Both teams SHOULD have no trouble getting wins if they stick to their gameplans. However, I'd say the seat is way hotter for Georgia, who can't let Alabama beat them twice. Once on the field, and once more in their minds as they get ready to play the Vols.

SEC Picks Week 5

Went 4-4 on the units last week, I'm stuck in a .500 rut after getting down early by those first 2 units. This may be the week we're pulling out of it though with a full slate of SEC action. Here's the picks!

Three Units:

Ole Miss v. Florida +7.5 - I like OLE MISS -7.5 in this game. Florida's offensive line is a problem, and Ole Miss has probably the best defensive player in the country on the other side, waiting to demolish whatever pitiful offense Florida tries to muster. Given Ole Miss wanting to prove a point, I'm going big here. Three units.

Two Unit:

Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +6.5 - I like TEXAS A&M -6.5 in this game. Mississippi State has struggled on both sides of the ball, while Texas A&M has been bucking their prior ATS trend with a 3-1 start as a favorite. With the line less than a TD, I like 2 units here this week.

One Unit:

Missouri v. South Carolina +3.5 - I like SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5 in this game. Neither team impresses me at all, but Missouri suspended their QB for this game, and that's worth a unit on the opposing squad.

Georgia v. Alabama +2.5 - I like ALABAMA +2.5 in this game. The game is honestly about as even as you can get by paper, but there's a rain factor involved here. The idea of a muddy, sloppy contest in the wind and the rain? That favors the bigger line and the bigger back. Both of those are on Alabama's side, not Georgia's. Since Alabama is the underdog, I like them in a really close match. Georgia might even squeeze out a close win, but Alabama gets the cover.


Tennessee v. Arkansas +5.5 - I like ARKANSAS +5.5 in this game. I expect this disaster of a game to be ugly and close. I'm going with the points. I won't be watching any of it because it will be horrible football to consume. I said I wouldn't pick them anymore, but I've watched Tennessee struggle to hold any lead.


Auburn, LSU, Vandy, and Kentucky are all playing crap.

Tennessee Volunteers v. Florida Gators: Week 4 Analysis

Only one game to cover this week since so many of the games were either against crap teams or lopsided bloodbaths. But this one? This one was a doozy. Sorry in advance Tennessee fans since I'm recapping two of probably the worst losses in recent history, but it was the CBS game of the week and Tennessee was looking for redemption against a down Gator team they hadn't beaten in a decade. That streak lives on at 11 years now after the 4th down Florida heroics gave them the victory.

I've gone over Tennessee's issues before, so I'll recap them in brief here. Dobbs can't really throw the ball well, and the Tennessee offense doesn't put people away. Both those things happened again in this game, and it's the reason they lost. However, the positives for Tennessee fans is that Dobbs was great running the ball, and catching the ball oddly enough. Also, Jalen Hurd really raised his intensity level in the second half and fought for some long runs that got Tennessee the big lead they had.

The big plays for Tennessee were mostly trick plays. The first was a throwback pass to Dobbs, who then took off to the house for a TD. The second was a 4th down Tebow-style jump pass that kept the Tennessee drive moving on to another TD. Both passes were by wide receivers. So Dobbs actually had no touchdown passes in this game (not really shocking to me as a critic of his play). He had a RECEIVING touchdown (very shocking to me), and Jalen Hurd had two running TDs. And I liked the way Hurd played in this game. His yards per carry average wasn't great, but he was backing Florida off the line, and opening up the offense for Dobbs on QB-keeper runs. It's like the Tennessee coaching staff realized their QB was a liability throwing the ball, and instead switched completely to a run-option look for Dobbs with some trick plays. It was a very crazy change, and it almost worked. Almost.

But Florida's QB Will Grier kept the game alive over and over. If you watch Grier play you probably notice two very different things. One, he's got a great arm and at one point made an NFL-style back-shoulder sideline throw at the intermediate level. It's that kind of thing that gives you pause, and makes you think this kid might be something. But second, you notice that he's horrifically inaccurate deep, and at one point that cost him with an interception as he tried to stare down the fly route receiver and drop a touch pass in the bucket. The problem was the bucket happened to be a Tennessee defender.

So Grier looked very shaky early in the game, but so did both offenses. If not for trick plays, the score probably would have been 7-3 Florida, as nobody could convert a 3rd down. At the end of the half it was Tennessee with 1/6 on 3rd down conversions, and Florida with 1/7 on 3rd down. Honestly, it was terrible offensive football, but it was at least entertaining. If anything, Tennessee should probably kick themselves for not putting it away early while Grier was struggling hard, and the Florida running game had essentially one good play that led to a TD. The killer was that Dobbs had a 62 yard run to set themselves up in Florida territory late in the half, and then went 3-and-out from there, settling for a field goal. A touchdown at that point puts them up 21-7 at the break, and getting the ball in the second half first. I don't think Florida comes back from that.

But here's the thing, Florida has a lot of problems, and most of them are on the offensive line. The fact they did come back is almost entirely because Grier was unconscious on 4th downs. If you're not a basketball fan, that is a saying meaning he could make anything happen that he wanted to. In football, it just means you're knocked out, so I felt I should clarify. Anyway, take a look if you get the chance at Florida's O-line. It's pretty awful in pass-protection. Grier was running for his life much of the game, and at one point he was sacked because his right tackle got Ole'd by #9 Derek Barnett, who continues to be a force in the pass rush. Tennessee had 3 sacks in the game, while Florida had 3 as well. Both sides I thought looked like they had room to improve in pass protection big-time, but Florida's was more obvious as they continued to throw the ball late.

How often have I ever seen a team go 5/5 on 4th down conversions? I honestly can't remember other than this game. That was the real difference late. Three guys besides Grier really stepped up in the receiving core. That was #81 Antonio Callaway, and #83 Jake McGee, and #4 Brandon Powell. Down 27 to 14 in the 4th quarter, it was McGee who picked up the third of the 4th down conversions in the game. Then Powell got the 4th later in the drive, and then TD catch later to make it 27-21. But the heart-breaker conversion was all Callaway. He was the guy with less than 2 minutes left, 4th and 13, and the game on the line who made the middle of the field catch, beat two Tennessee defenders, and then streaked down the sideline for the 63-yard score to make it 28-27.

Was it anything special those players were doing? Not really, other than Grier kept escaping and finding guys who were open inside the Tennessee zone. I don't really blame the Tennessee coaches for going slightly conservative to keep the game in front of them except for that last 4th down. It's 4th and 13 and if you get to the QB the game is over. He's not running, you know it's a pass play, and you know he's struggled to stay upright with 3 sacks in the game. You don't play coverage there, you bring the house and force that really crappy O-line who has struggled all game to stop you. That's where you make your stand. Tennessee got a little cautious for those last few drives, including their very boring 3-runs-to-burn-clock offensive possession, and it cost them the game.

So now Florida is 4-0 and Tennessee is 2-2. Is Tennessee done? Absolutely not, I think they are a very tough team who is finding themselves in the running game, and trying to work around their struggles at the QB position with creative coaching. Also, the defense when turned loose is absolutely nasty. With nothing to lose, I think Tennessee will bring more blitzes and start playing like a wounded animal. That makes them extremely dangerous. Plus they are only one game down in an SEC East that is far from decided. Should Tennessee beat Georgia? Suddenly they are back in the race if Florida drops two games.

Is Florida as good as their record? Absolutely not. While Grier survived this game, he was doing it mainly with short, quick passes because his offensive line can't buy him time. The Florida running game with Fred Taylor's son Kelvin Taylor is basically average. They busted one play for 40+ yards, and for the rest of the game it was a slog with 60 yards on 17 carries. That's nothing to write home about. They have some talented tight ends, and Callaway absolutely is a force when he gets the ball in his hands, so in that regard you have to watch out for their passing game. But Grier was still a backup for a reason, and the reason is his accuracy and his stare-downs, similar to other SEC mediocre QBs this season. He's BEGGING at times to turn the ball over, and I think he will a good bit down the stretch.

All in all, I left with the impression that both these teams are still baking in the oven. Florida and Tennessee are both heading in the right directions, but they don't yet have the offensive solutions they need to back up their defensive stars.