Let's be honest, most of the SEC games suck this weekend. You've got the Georgia-Florida game, and that's about it. You MIGHT be excited about Ole Miss and Auburn, but Ole Miss lost to Memphis and Auburn is out of contention for everything. LSU and Bama are off this week. So it's a cavalcade of mediocre matchups with one big game that will likely decide the East. SC and A&M? Should be a blowout. Tennessee and Kentucky? Snoozers.
I lost 2 units last week because Missouri screwed me. They've activated Maty Mauk now from what I'm hearing. Well no crap. I guess getting whomped defensively by Vandy in their first SEC win in what seems like forever would do that. I should have known better in this bizarre season. 4 units down total now thru Week 9, and it seems fitting given how many crazy upsets we've seen. Excuses, excuses. On to the picks! No 2 unit plays this week since it's mostly low key matchups.
1 Unit Plays:
Ole Miss @ Auburn +7.5: I like AUBURN +7.5 in this game. This is simply a system play. One, I like home dogs in this crazy season. Two, I tend to shy away from any favorite on the road having to pay over the TD. Three, Ole Miss got smoked in their last two road games at Florida and Memphis, so I question their ability to travel.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M -16.5: I like TEXAS A&M -16.5 in this game. Texas A&M is a home favorite by a bunch coming off two losses in a row while they looked offensively bereft. But A&M is 4-1 this season as a favorite, while South Carolina has already lost a head coach, and is 0-3 ATS on the road. The number is high, but it's worth a one unit play.
Georgia v. Florida -3: I like GEORGIA +3 in the game. Logic would tell you not to take the Dawgs in this game and bet the Gators based on their defense. However, this game is anything but logical. 2 of the last 4 years, the team that was lower ranked won the game. It's about as 50-50 as you can make it every year, and with the exception of 2014, it's usually close. The Dawgs also won 3 of the last 4, so they've done well in this series of late. I'm taking the Dawgs in an upset, and I think Richt will shuffle his QBs around.
Vanderbilt @ Houston -12.5: I like HOUSTON -12.5 in this game. This is the best offense Vandy will see all year, and Houston is undefeated for a reason. I'm going with Houston because they are 4-2 so far as the favorite, and even though Vandy is 4-1-1 as a dog, they've played teams like Mizzou and South Carolina that have zero offensive firepower.
Tennessee @ Kentucky -9: I like TENNESSEE - 9 in this game. Kentucky is awful against the spread this year. 1-4 at home, 2-5 overall. Tennessee is 2-1 as a favorite, 1-0-1 on the road. Yes, it's two scores and that gives me pause, but I think Tennessee has finally settled into a role for Josh Dobbs that works, and their defense is improving against the run.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
SEC Week 9 Preview: Georgia v. Florida
It's that time again. Time for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! But unlike the last few years, this game will likely determine the winner of the SEC East instead of Mizzouri back-dooring their way to the Georgia Dome.
I'm hearing a lot of comments about how Georgia has no chance in this game, and that Florida is going to stomp them, and how many fans are selling their tickets. I've been going to the game for 15 years, so I can understand the sentiment. The walk out of Jacksonville Stadium after a loss is unlike any walk in college football. It's horrifically tragic as you shuffle past the Florida fans screaming all kinds of Hell at you, and another year of knowing your season is likely over. But the win? The walking out win is just as opposite of a high. Fans chanting it's great to be a Georgia Bulldog all the way down the ramps as you spill out into the streets to "destroy some property tonight." In the words of the departed Larry Munson.
But this isn't an article about why I'm going to the game, and I am. Again. This is a preview of the game and why I think it's closer than many fans who've given up might believe. For starters, Vegas has set the line at -3 in favor of Florida, which means that the money setters don't think this is a blowout. Now many of you will say that Vegas also set the Alabama line with Georgia as a favorite, but remember that was before Georgia had played a single opponent that was worth a damn, and Alabama was coming off a direct loss. Vegas sets the line based on expectation early, and on results later.
Outside of Vegas, let's take a look at some of the factors in the game.
Quarterbacks:
Georgia has Greyson Lambert, the much maligned up-and-down transfer that's often proving to be a major liability throwing the ball against good defenses. Florida is on their second-string QB, Treon Harris, who just happened to be the QB that destroyed Georgia in that ass-whipping last year. Normally, I'd say that the more experienced QB would give Georgia an edge, but anybody who has watched Greyson play outside the South Carolina game knows that's not true. Greyson on film has the deer-in-the-headlights look when things start to go wrong, and his fatal flaw is that he starts to get happy feet and short-arm passes into the legs of receivers or the dirt. Florida's defense is certainly strong enough to give him a headache, but more on that later.
Harris could barely throw the ball when he played against Georgia last year. He was mostly a mobile threat who was helping the Gators run for 400+ yards on the Dawgs. Now? I watched him play in the LSU game, and even though he came out on the losing end, he looks like a much improved passer. Yes, he's still mobile, but he's using that to his advantage in the passing game rather than just a primary ability. Several plays feature Harris on the bootleg rollout, where he can survey the downfield receivers and make throws on the run. He's got a good enough arm to hit his guys in stride, or pull it down and take off with his speed on the outside. It will be Hell on the Georgia defense trying to contain this kid. ADVANTAGE: Florida.
Runningbacks:
Nick Chubb's knee isn't going to be better any time soon, which means that Sony Michel is now the primary back for UGA. That's a downgrade from Chubb, and there's no way to sugar-coat that. However, Sony is a good runner in his own right, and he's very shifty where Chubb can just bust one right over the the top of you. Shifty may be better against this defense, because the Florida bigs aren't going to get bowled over any time soon. Still Sony can turn the corner with the best of them, and if he gets lose, nobody will catch him.
Florida will throw Kelvin Taylor, son of pro Fred Taylor, at the Dawgs. While I loved the pedigree, I've been completely unimpressed by the kid every time I've seen him play. And with good reason. To put it mildly, Taylor will only get you as many yards as are blocked. That means that when the hole is there, he's hitting it, but he's not the type of back who makes many people miss. It shows up in his stats too, as he's only a 3.6 yards per carry guy as the primary ball-carrier. However, in short yardage scenarios near the goal loan or on conversions, Taylor can very much get the job done. He's got the TDs to prove it. Still, I think Georgia has the better back even as the backup. ADVANTAGE: Georgia
Receivers:
Georgia has Malcolm Mitchell. And that's about it. The rest of the receivers have been hot garbage for the most part, and made Lambert look way worse than he should when he's holding the ball too long. Terry Godwin sort of emerged as a target against Missouri, but that's because Missouri was trying to shut down Mitchell, who is the only real home run threat the Dawgs have.
Florida has Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Callaway, Jake McGee and Brandon Powell. None of them are better than Mitchell, but all of them are better than anything else that UGA will put out on the field. They run decent routes, manage to get to the middle of the zone effectively, and they can make life much easier for Harris as a group. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Defense:
Do I really need to go into depth? Pick any game and watch Florida's defense. Then watch the trainwreck that is Georgia on defense the second they face an opponent with a winning record. Even against the best runningback in the league, Florida managed to keep the game close and "contain" Leonard Fournette to a mild 180 yards and 2 TDs. But the game came down to a fake field goal. And Florida's defense is giving up 18 points a game against winning teams. Georgia is giving up 38 a game. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Florida wins if:
They run the ball down Georgia's throat and use Treon Harris in a run-pass option that keeps the Georgia defenders confused all day. Which hopefully won't be easy since Georgia remembers all too well how many running yards they gave up last year. Make no mistake, Georgia can't score enough points on Florida if they can put up 28 on the board. Their defense will cover the rest, and it should be close enough that they will have to.
Georgia Wins if:
They turn Florida over, and Greyson Lambert has the game of his life. Yes, it's going to take that I think. I don't believe an average performance by the QB will win this game. I also don't think it's impossible either if the UGA receivers can actually catch the ball. I've seen Lambert in games look like he knows exactly what he wants to do, but he needs the support of his ground game and his play-caller to not put him in terrible positions. I think Florida knows that Georgia wants to run, and they'll do everything to shut that down, making Lambert beat them. And to do that, Lambert will have to have a big day moving the chains, and converting in the end zone.
Picks on Thursday this time, since I'm heading out of town. And hopefully I won't make the mistake of picking Missouri anymore, who gave Vandy their first SEC win in forever. Idiots. Not that I'm bitter.
Ok, maybe a little.
I'm hearing a lot of comments about how Georgia has no chance in this game, and that Florida is going to stomp them, and how many fans are selling their tickets. I've been going to the game for 15 years, so I can understand the sentiment. The walk out of Jacksonville Stadium after a loss is unlike any walk in college football. It's horrifically tragic as you shuffle past the Florida fans screaming all kinds of Hell at you, and another year of knowing your season is likely over. But the win? The walking out win is just as opposite of a high. Fans chanting it's great to be a Georgia Bulldog all the way down the ramps as you spill out into the streets to "destroy some property tonight." In the words of the departed Larry Munson.
But this isn't an article about why I'm going to the game, and I am. Again. This is a preview of the game and why I think it's closer than many fans who've given up might believe. For starters, Vegas has set the line at -3 in favor of Florida, which means that the money setters don't think this is a blowout. Now many of you will say that Vegas also set the Alabama line with Georgia as a favorite, but remember that was before Georgia had played a single opponent that was worth a damn, and Alabama was coming off a direct loss. Vegas sets the line based on expectation early, and on results later.
Outside of Vegas, let's take a look at some of the factors in the game.
Quarterbacks:
Georgia has Greyson Lambert, the much maligned up-and-down transfer that's often proving to be a major liability throwing the ball against good defenses. Florida is on their second-string QB, Treon Harris, who just happened to be the QB that destroyed Georgia in that ass-whipping last year. Normally, I'd say that the more experienced QB would give Georgia an edge, but anybody who has watched Greyson play outside the South Carolina game knows that's not true. Greyson on film has the deer-in-the-headlights look when things start to go wrong, and his fatal flaw is that he starts to get happy feet and short-arm passes into the legs of receivers or the dirt. Florida's defense is certainly strong enough to give him a headache, but more on that later.
Harris could barely throw the ball when he played against Georgia last year. He was mostly a mobile threat who was helping the Gators run for 400+ yards on the Dawgs. Now? I watched him play in the LSU game, and even though he came out on the losing end, he looks like a much improved passer. Yes, he's still mobile, but he's using that to his advantage in the passing game rather than just a primary ability. Several plays feature Harris on the bootleg rollout, where he can survey the downfield receivers and make throws on the run. He's got a good enough arm to hit his guys in stride, or pull it down and take off with his speed on the outside. It will be Hell on the Georgia defense trying to contain this kid. ADVANTAGE: Florida.
Runningbacks:
Nick Chubb's knee isn't going to be better any time soon, which means that Sony Michel is now the primary back for UGA. That's a downgrade from Chubb, and there's no way to sugar-coat that. However, Sony is a good runner in his own right, and he's very shifty where Chubb can just bust one right over the the top of you. Shifty may be better against this defense, because the Florida bigs aren't going to get bowled over any time soon. Still Sony can turn the corner with the best of them, and if he gets lose, nobody will catch him.
Florida will throw Kelvin Taylor, son of pro Fred Taylor, at the Dawgs. While I loved the pedigree, I've been completely unimpressed by the kid every time I've seen him play. And with good reason. To put it mildly, Taylor will only get you as many yards as are blocked. That means that when the hole is there, he's hitting it, but he's not the type of back who makes many people miss. It shows up in his stats too, as he's only a 3.6 yards per carry guy as the primary ball-carrier. However, in short yardage scenarios near the goal loan or on conversions, Taylor can very much get the job done. He's got the TDs to prove it. Still, I think Georgia has the better back even as the backup. ADVANTAGE: Georgia
Receivers:
Georgia has Malcolm Mitchell. And that's about it. The rest of the receivers have been hot garbage for the most part, and made Lambert look way worse than he should when he's holding the ball too long. Terry Godwin sort of emerged as a target against Missouri, but that's because Missouri was trying to shut down Mitchell, who is the only real home run threat the Dawgs have.
Florida has Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Callaway, Jake McGee and Brandon Powell. None of them are better than Mitchell, but all of them are better than anything else that UGA will put out on the field. They run decent routes, manage to get to the middle of the zone effectively, and they can make life much easier for Harris as a group. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Defense:
Do I really need to go into depth? Pick any game and watch Florida's defense. Then watch the trainwreck that is Georgia on defense the second they face an opponent with a winning record. Even against the best runningback in the league, Florida managed to keep the game close and "contain" Leonard Fournette to a mild 180 yards and 2 TDs. But the game came down to a fake field goal. And Florida's defense is giving up 18 points a game against winning teams. Georgia is giving up 38 a game. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Florida wins if:
They run the ball down Georgia's throat and use Treon Harris in a run-pass option that keeps the Georgia defenders confused all day. Which hopefully won't be easy since Georgia remembers all too well how many running yards they gave up last year. Make no mistake, Georgia can't score enough points on Florida if they can put up 28 on the board. Their defense will cover the rest, and it should be close enough that they will have to.
Georgia Wins if:
They turn Florida over, and Greyson Lambert has the game of his life. Yes, it's going to take that I think. I don't believe an average performance by the QB will win this game. I also don't think it's impossible either if the UGA receivers can actually catch the ball. I've seen Lambert in games look like he knows exactly what he wants to do, but he needs the support of his ground game and his play-caller to not put him in terrible positions. I think Florida knows that Georgia wants to run, and they'll do everything to shut that down, making Lambert beat them. And to do that, Lambert will have to have a big day moving the chains, and converting in the end zone.
Picks on Thursday this time, since I'm heading out of town. And hopefully I won't make the mistake of picking Missouri anymore, who gave Vandy their first SEC win in forever. Idiots. Not that I'm bitter.
Ok, maybe a little.
Friday, October 23, 2015
SEC Picks Week 8!
Last week I finally broke through with a winning week and picked up a unit. So we're 2 units under going into Week 8, and looking to break through into the black. Here we go!
2 Unit plays:
Missouri @ Vanderbilt +2.5: I like MISSOURI -2.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is amazing. Their offense is horrific. However, Vandy's offense is also horrific, and they might be starting a freshman QB as well for the first time. With that in mind, I think even Missouri can win a game 3-0.
1 Unit Plays:
Tennessee @ Alabama -15.5: I like TENNESSEE +15.5 in this game. It's just too many points for me when Tennessee has been playing everyone close, and Alabama honestly has been better on the road than inside their own building. Not sure why that is, but Alabama hasn't covered much at home, so I'm going with a confident Tennessee team to keep it within 2 scores.
Auburn @ Arkansas -6.5: I like AUBURN +6.5 in this game. I know it hasn't seemed like Auburn can find their butts with both hands, but I'm even less convinced that Arkansas knows what they are doing now that they 2-4 on the season. I'm never going to lay points on a team with 2 wins after 6 games. Ever.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss -5.5: I like OLE MISS -5.5 in this game. It's less than a TD, and Ole Miss while they did lose to Memphis and Florida, they did it on the road. Texas A&M hasn't played a true road game in a hostile stadium yet. With that in mind and a low home spread, I'm betting on a rebel bounce-back and an A&M road flop.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State -12: I like KENTUCKY +12 in this game. Kentucky likes to hang around. And Mississippi State couldn't win by more than 8 against an Auburn team that at the time could barely function. I'm taking the points, even if Kentucky is attached to them.
2 Unit plays:
Missouri @ Vanderbilt +2.5: I like MISSOURI -2.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is amazing. Their offense is horrific. However, Vandy's offense is also horrific, and they might be starting a freshman QB as well for the first time. With that in mind, I think even Missouri can win a game 3-0.
1 Unit Plays:
Tennessee @ Alabama -15.5: I like TENNESSEE +15.5 in this game. It's just too many points for me when Tennessee has been playing everyone close, and Alabama honestly has been better on the road than inside their own building. Not sure why that is, but Alabama hasn't covered much at home, so I'm going with a confident Tennessee team to keep it within 2 scores.
Auburn @ Arkansas -6.5: I like AUBURN +6.5 in this game. I know it hasn't seemed like Auburn can find their butts with both hands, but I'm even less convinced that Arkansas knows what they are doing now that they 2-4 on the season. I'm never going to lay points on a team with 2 wins after 6 games. Ever.
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss -5.5: I like OLE MISS -5.5 in this game. It's less than a TD, and Ole Miss while they did lose to Memphis and Florida, they did it on the road. Texas A&M hasn't played a true road game in a hostile stadium yet. With that in mind and a low home spread, I'm betting on a rebel bounce-back and an A&M road flop.
Kentucky @ Mississippi State -12: I like KENTUCKY +12 in this game. Kentucky likes to hang around. And Mississippi State couldn't win by more than 8 against an Auburn team that at the time could barely function. I'm taking the points, even if Kentucky is attached to them.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
SEC Preview Week 8: Tennessee v. Alabama
It’s been several weeks of looking at film now, and I’ve had
several requests to switch up the tactics on the blog a bit. I tend to agree
that after a while, just going over film seems redundant, so starting this week
I’m taking my game film looks and projecting more on forward looking previews
of the upcoming biggest games. With that in mind, I’m starting with the matchup
between Alabama and Tennessee this weekend on CBS at 3:30PM EST.
Alabama Strengths:
Alabama is coming off a rather simple looking win against a
Texas A&M team that never stood a chance against their running attack or
their defense. And those elements of rushing and defense just happen to be the
strongest points of Alabama right now. In the game against A&M, Derrick
Henry went off for 236 yards on 32 carries and 2 TDs. In the first TD he
scored, he busted loose for 55 yards and made the A&M defense look
absolutely ridiculous.
But the true ridiculousness was what the Alabama secondary
put on A&M’s passing attack. I’ve said before that I think the secondary
was an issue. They still may have problems against a higher tempo team, but
right now they are coming together in a hurry, and a lot of that is the play of
Minkah Fitzpatrick who had 2 pick-6’s in the game. Couple that with the fact that
the Alabama run defense has been stingy all year, and you’re left with very few
options on how to advance the ball.
Alabama Weaknesses:
Yes, they have them. For one, turnovers have been an issue
with the Tide before, and it’s the reason they lost that game against Ole Miss.
Alabama’s 12th in most turnovers given away in the SEC, but they are
4th in turnover margin because they can take so many back on their
own side. However, if you can get Alabama to fumble the ball, or force their QB
Jake Coker to make some bad downfield decisions, you can beat them handily by
capitalizing on the errors. Still, Coker is improving game to game, and his
downfield passing attack has been getting better since torching UGA in that downpour.
Against A&M he was basically meaningless because the Aggies
couldn’t stop the run, so they never really had to use him as a threat.
However, he can make mistakes if pushed and pressured. I’m not sure that Coker
can’t go from asset to liability in the blink of an eye.
The other big weakness for Alabama is something I don’t
usually see out of a Nick Saban team, and that’s penalties. Did you know that
Alabama is 13th in the SEC in most penalty yards a game, followed by
LSU at 14th? And yet those teams both look like they will be playing
each other for the SEC West title. By contrast, their opponent Tennessee is
least penalized, and it hasn’t helped them defeat many SEC teams this year. So
perhaps it’s an overblown stat, but I can’t help but think that as you advance,
every penalty becomes larger. And undisciplined teams make more mistakes.
Tennessee Strengths:
Honestly, Tennessee’s biggest strength in my eyes is that
they know how to move the ball well. That doesn’t translate to scoring points
as often as it should, but they 4th in the SEC in yardage and
extremely balanced between the run and pass. Jalen Hurd can get tough yardage
when they need it, and Josh Dobbs is mobile enough to make people miss in the
middle of the field on the run as well. Plus, if Josh can get his first read
open, he’s more than capable of making the early throw before taking off.
Tennessee Weaknesses:
There’s a lot more of these unfortunately. Get Dobbs to a
second read and watch the carnage. Pressure him all day and see how fast that
confidence from the UGA game crumbles. Also, Hurd has plenty of muscle to get
extra yards, but he’s not Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb that can create space
and make everyone on a good defense miss. He’s a good running back right now
with the potential to be great if he can get some more blocking help.
The defense for Tennessee is also a problem in that they
can’t get other teams off the field consistently enough. Tennessee’s 13th
in yardage, tied for 12th in points against. And the horrifying
thing is they haven’t really played that many good offenses yet. Georgia proved
they aren’t worth a damn against a Missouri team that held them to 9 points,
and they managed to put up 31 on that Tennessee defense.
Also, the Tennessee team has been notorious this season for
not being able to close out games. Georgia was the exception to the rule as
Dobbs had a career day shredding that Dawg defense. But against OU, Florida,
and Arkansas? Fourth quarter failures and two TD blown leads were the norm. The
upside for Tennessee is that Alabama isn’t likely to give them a big lead to
lose. So maybe that’s a positive given how they came back on Georgia.
Alabama Wins If:
They run the ball down Tennessee’s throat and don’t turn it
over. Simple as that. You don’t need to fling it much against Tennessee to beat
their defense, and Alabama isn’t know for doing that. I seriously doubt that
Hurd is going to find any space against this Bama front, since nobody else has.
With that in mind, it’s doing to fall to Dobbs to win the game for Tennessee,
and I’ve seen what happens when a mediocre QB has to try and get
one-dimensional against Alabama. It’s pick-6 city all day long.
Tennessee Wins if:
Jake Coker gets cocky and starts making mistakes, and they
sell out to stop Derrick Henry. Tennessee will only win this game if it’s ugly.
I’m talking like 16-13 kind of ugly. Tennessee needs for Alabama to try to
grind, and make life hell on that strategy. They want the ball in Coker’s hands
and they want Lane Kiffin to get frustrated enough to try something dumb. All
that CAN happen, and if it does you just need Dobbs to make some plays late
like he did in the UGA game. Basically, Tennessee wants the ball with 2 minutes
left and a chance to win the game with a TD. IF that happens? I think they can
get it.
Picks on Friday, I’ll let you know which way I’m leaning
against the spread. This has the potential to be a fun game to watch, or a
complete asswhipping you turn off in the 3rd quarter. We’ll know by
halftime I think.
Friday, October 16, 2015
SEC Picks Week 7!
Alright, so we lost another unit last week with the Dawgs blowing a 21 point lead. So I'm feeling a bit snakebit. Change of tactics though, I'm going to go straight 1 unit bets this week and see how we roll. Let's hit it!
1 Unit Plays:
Alabama @ Texas A&M +4 - I like ALABAMA -4 in this game. The majority of the public would swing to A&M given what we've seen, but they are mostly untested in the SEC and Alabama's offense is getting stronger.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -3.5 - I like VANDERBILT +3.5 in this game. South Carolina is bad. That should be reason enough. Now with a new coach in interim? I'm just going with that as a reason to be against them.
Missouri @ Georgia -16.5 - I like MISSOURI +16.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is great and the Dawgs offense is one-dimensional. If the Dawgs can score more than 30 points they will cover easily, but Missouri has only allowed 21 as a max this season.
Florida @ LSU -7 - I like LSU -7 in this game. I would normally take Florida, but the suspension puts me off them untilt hey can prove they can win with their updated offense. And I know Florida doesn't run the ball well.
Let's go get em!
1 Unit Plays:
Alabama @ Texas A&M +4 - I like ALABAMA -4 in this game. The majority of the public would swing to A&M given what we've seen, but they are mostly untested in the SEC and Alabama's offense is getting stronger.
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -3.5 - I like VANDERBILT +3.5 in this game. South Carolina is bad. That should be reason enough. Now with a new coach in interim? I'm just going with that as a reason to be against them.
Missouri @ Georgia -16.5 - I like MISSOURI +16.5 in this game. Missouri's defense is great and the Dawgs offense is one-dimensional. If the Dawgs can score more than 30 points they will cover easily, but Missouri has only allowed 21 as a max this season.
Florida @ LSU -7 - I like LSU -7 in this game. I would normally take Florida, but the suspension puts me off them untilt hey can prove they can win with their updated offense. And I know Florida doesn't run the ball well.
Let's go get em!
Thursday, October 15, 2015
LSU Tigers v. South Carolina Gamecocks: Week 6
I made the decision that I'm going to follow the two best teams in the East and the West weekly in these breakdowns, and whatever teams they happen to be playing going forward, because it's honestly about who is going to make it to the Dome. In that regard, the current East leader is Florida, and the current West leader is LSU. If they are off or lose, I'll take on the next teams down for parity sake. But if your team has two losses right now? I don't see much point in putting them in the discussion currently.
With that said, LSU looked amazing on the ground against South Carolina on their way to a 45-24 win, and that should come as no surprise. South Carolina made everyone look good this year, and that's partly why Steve Spurrier finally decided to retire mid-year. However, there's another story to this game, and it's not one you'll hear much about unless you watched it or you're an LSU fan. The starting Fullback and lead blocker for LSU, John David Moore, went down with a knee injury that could sideline him for 3-4 weeks. He's the main blocker that springs #7 Leonard Fournette out of the power-I formation. That had major consequences in this game as they had to replace Moore with #47 Bry'Kiethon Mouton (real name, yes) and he looked woefully unprepared to make the key blocks. It's probably why they took Fournette out at the half and barely let him play at all in the third and fourth quarters.
One thing I really wanted to see from this LSU team is how their passing game is developing, because at the beginning of the season it was non-existant. At no point in their first five wins did LSU throw for more than 100 yards. So against what is arguably the worst defense in the SEC, how would they fare? Answer, just fine. Not great, but fine. QB Brandon Harris was able to fling it around for 228 yards and 2 TDs, which is unfortunately pretty average against this SC defense. I noticed that Harris does do very well on early quick reads and passes, and even managed to make an NFL-style fade route throw to his best receiver Malachi Dupre for a TD. Dupre is the obvious go-to for Harris, so if you're game-planning against LSU on the pass (as if you would have the time after worrying about Fournette) then he's the guy you attempt to take away.
Fournette continues to be as advertised, making tough runs in the middle, shedding blockers, and putting his foot in the ground while making people miss. His lone TD on the 158 yard day was a long 87 yard run after his made two secondary players miss to the outside, cut it back in, and then was off to the races. Normally, a secondary player can chase down a guy of Fournette's size, but he just turned on the jets and never looked back. If he's even, he's leaving as they say. But even after Fournette went out, #5 Darrius Guice (pronounced G-ICE like mice, the names on this team are insane, thanks Cajuns) went off for 161 yards of his own pretty much all in the second half. LSU can run in any down and formation, but they seem to love to go power-I strong side on first down and beat you to death for 3-4 yards minimum. At 2nd and medium, it's anybody's guess, and that's what makes the offense flow so well.
However, the downside to LSU's offense is that if you get them in longer downs, they are hosed. They look almost as bad as a Georgia Tech team trying to throw the ball at times with Harris' accuracy issues. Yes, Harris CAN make throws, but the longer a play goes, the chances of a good pass almost approach zero. The only option after 3-4 seconds for Harris is to take off running, which he is actually pretty good at. But you do not want him throwing on the run. That way lies madness. What that does bring up to me as a fan though is how LSU will react when a stellar defense takes the run away. I've watched Alabama and Florida play, and they are both quite capable of shutting down the running aspect of your team. If you make Harris have to win? I think that's where LSU falls apart.
The other glaring weakness is that LSU's secondary looks woeful. They let South Carolina put up two very bad secondary breakdown TD's on them, and each time it was because they were completely out of position. #13 Dwayne Thomas has an especially tough day, but he was covering Pharoh Cooper most of the time. Granted, Pharoh Cooper is a stud athlete and can make people look silly, but this is South Carolina's offense we're talking about with their 2nd string QB. And they managed to put up more points on LSU than they have on any SEC team so far, including Kentucky. That's not a good sign for this defense, which I expected to look better. Even worse, they got no real sacks or pressure on the SC QB until the very end of the game. I was wondering if maybe Les Miles is playing possum knowing they have Florida next week, but then I remember Les Miles probably isn't that smart.
The other issue for LSU was special teams. They got torched by South Carolina for a kickoff return TD, and then in the second half they gave up a surprise onside kick, but it was called back due to SC being offsides. Still, it's not a good look. They need to shore that up or they'll find themselves on the losing end of a bad special teams play very soon.
Overall though? LSU can run that rock. And if you can't stop them from running it, you're in for a very long day of watching #7 run around, over, or through you. Still, I'm not sure we're looking at the SEC champion in LSU unless the passing game continues to develop. Because at some point the running game won't work, or the defense will give up too many plays in a shootout, and they'll have to play catchup. And what then?
I guess we'll find out if it ever happens.
With that said, LSU looked amazing on the ground against South Carolina on their way to a 45-24 win, and that should come as no surprise. South Carolina made everyone look good this year, and that's partly why Steve Spurrier finally decided to retire mid-year. However, there's another story to this game, and it's not one you'll hear much about unless you watched it or you're an LSU fan. The starting Fullback and lead blocker for LSU, John David Moore, went down with a knee injury that could sideline him for 3-4 weeks. He's the main blocker that springs #7 Leonard Fournette out of the power-I formation. That had major consequences in this game as they had to replace Moore with #47 Bry'Kiethon Mouton (real name, yes) and he looked woefully unprepared to make the key blocks. It's probably why they took Fournette out at the half and barely let him play at all in the third and fourth quarters.
One thing I really wanted to see from this LSU team is how their passing game is developing, because at the beginning of the season it was non-existant. At no point in their first five wins did LSU throw for more than 100 yards. So against what is arguably the worst defense in the SEC, how would they fare? Answer, just fine. Not great, but fine. QB Brandon Harris was able to fling it around for 228 yards and 2 TDs, which is unfortunately pretty average against this SC defense. I noticed that Harris does do very well on early quick reads and passes, and even managed to make an NFL-style fade route throw to his best receiver Malachi Dupre for a TD. Dupre is the obvious go-to for Harris, so if you're game-planning against LSU on the pass (as if you would have the time after worrying about Fournette) then he's the guy you attempt to take away.
Fournette continues to be as advertised, making tough runs in the middle, shedding blockers, and putting his foot in the ground while making people miss. His lone TD on the 158 yard day was a long 87 yard run after his made two secondary players miss to the outside, cut it back in, and then was off to the races. Normally, a secondary player can chase down a guy of Fournette's size, but he just turned on the jets and never looked back. If he's even, he's leaving as they say. But even after Fournette went out, #5 Darrius Guice (pronounced G-ICE like mice, the names on this team are insane, thanks Cajuns) went off for 161 yards of his own pretty much all in the second half. LSU can run in any down and formation, but they seem to love to go power-I strong side on first down and beat you to death for 3-4 yards minimum. At 2nd and medium, it's anybody's guess, and that's what makes the offense flow so well.
However, the downside to LSU's offense is that if you get them in longer downs, they are hosed. They look almost as bad as a Georgia Tech team trying to throw the ball at times with Harris' accuracy issues. Yes, Harris CAN make throws, but the longer a play goes, the chances of a good pass almost approach zero. The only option after 3-4 seconds for Harris is to take off running, which he is actually pretty good at. But you do not want him throwing on the run. That way lies madness. What that does bring up to me as a fan though is how LSU will react when a stellar defense takes the run away. I've watched Alabama and Florida play, and they are both quite capable of shutting down the running aspect of your team. If you make Harris have to win? I think that's where LSU falls apart.
The other glaring weakness is that LSU's secondary looks woeful. They let South Carolina put up two very bad secondary breakdown TD's on them, and each time it was because they were completely out of position. #13 Dwayne Thomas has an especially tough day, but he was covering Pharoh Cooper most of the time. Granted, Pharoh Cooper is a stud athlete and can make people look silly, but this is South Carolina's offense we're talking about with their 2nd string QB. And they managed to put up more points on LSU than they have on any SEC team so far, including Kentucky. That's not a good sign for this defense, which I expected to look better. Even worse, they got no real sacks or pressure on the SC QB until the very end of the game. I was wondering if maybe Les Miles is playing possum knowing they have Florida next week, but then I remember Les Miles probably isn't that smart.
The other issue for LSU was special teams. They got torched by South Carolina for a kickoff return TD, and then in the second half they gave up a surprise onside kick, but it was called back due to SC being offsides. Still, it's not a good look. They need to shore that up or they'll find themselves on the losing end of a bad special teams play very soon.
Overall though? LSU can run that rock. And if you can't stop them from running it, you're in for a very long day of watching #7 run around, over, or through you. Still, I'm not sure we're looking at the SEC champion in LSU unless the passing game continues to develop. Because at some point the running game won't work, or the defense will give up too many plays in a shootout, and they'll have to play catchup. And what then?
I guess we'll find out if it ever happens.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Florida Gators v. Missouri Tigers: Week 6 Analysis
Originally, I didn't think I'd look at this tape because Will Grier the Florida QB has been suspended for the season. So, anything we see here is going to be way different than the game against LSU which I plan on reviewing. However, I haven't done much for Mizzou this year, so I figured I'd take a look at their young freshman QB, and their overall defensive structure. Sorry Florida fans, but I'll get to you next week when you play LSU.
Let's begin with the stuff most people want to hear about, the Missouri QB Drew Lock. He's a true freshman who was pressed into service by coach Gary Pinkel because his veteran QB Maty Mauk decided to break some rules. What rules I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that Gary was sick enough of Maty to let a true freshman play QB, so I'm guessing Maty got drunk and tried to violate one of his houseplants or something.
Anyway, Drew Lock's main attraction is that he's got a great arm. At times during the broadcast Jesse Palmer was giving him high praise as having an NFL-style cannon. I'm not sure it's THAT good, but he can certainly air it out. And that's both a blessing and a curse. Because he's a true freshman, he doesn't have all the touch accuracy that you'd expect from a true starting college QB, and that led him to have several overthrows in this game. That would be the tendency when you're a gunslinger because you know you're not going to short-hop any receivers. As Lock learns to control the cannon, he'll find it easier to put those throws on the money.
The other thing about Lock is that he looks like he's 12. You see him in the helmet and you think he's going to sell you chocolate bars for the band. And his youth really worked against him in another way in this game, because Florida's pass rush is relentless. One way to really disrupt a young passer is to get him off his spot in the pocket. I admire how Lock naturally moves and keeps his eyes downfield, but he's nowhere near experienced enough yet to make the throw on the run with consistency. That will come with time, but probably not during this season. However, if he's facing a team that doesn't move him? Like South Carolina for example? He looks like a world-beater making dink and dunk passes as will. It's death by 1000 cuts, and with the defense that Missouri has, paper cuts could be enough.
In essence, Lock is young. But the Missouri defense is not. And they are fierce. They spotted Florida 14 points very early on incredibly stupid personal foul penalties for a late hit and a face mask that kept drives alive. If they don't take those? I think the game likely goes to the half tied 3-3. The other Florida TD was on a pick 6, and that was the final score 21-3. To put it another way, after going down 14-3 in the first 10 minutes of the game, the Missouri defense allowed absolutely no offensive scores for the rest of the game. 50 minutes of pure defensive shutout. And that's not abnormal, as they lead the SEC in defensive points allowed. Ahead of even LSU and Alabama.
But why is the defense so good? Mainly because they trust the secondary, their entirely lineman are huge, and they have speed on the edges. And by trust their secondary, I mean they will press up on the line against receivers and take away the quick throws. Plus, and here's a big key, they can actually TACKLE. That sounds stupid, but if you're an SEC fan of a bad defense, you know exactly how huge that is with college players. Making one-on-one tackles, playing contain until you get some help, and having your secondary get involved in run defense? Those are hallmarks of this Missouri team, and they all showed up in the game against Florida.
A few defensive players made me stand up and take notice in this game, the first of which was #97 Josh Augusta. The dude is absolute enormous in the middle and a huge help as a space-eater and in run defense. He's 6'4" and listed at 335 pounds. I'm not sure I believe he's less than 350 just looking at him. Next is #91 DE Charles Harris, who had a sack in the game and 6 tackles. He's 6'2" and 255 pounds with good speed and agility. Harris has the ability to shed blocks with straight ahead moves, or in the case of his sack a very impressive inside spin-move. The last guy was #11 Aarion Penton, their best DB in my mind. He was involved everywhere, making tackles in the run game, breaking up passes, and making tackles on the edge, even blitzing at times.
But if the defense is this good, why are they losing games? Because the offense is a youthful looking train wreck. While Lock is learning his craft at QB, he's unfortunately saddled with several WR's who are just as young and learning their way. Talented? Sure. But talent doesn't help you figure out how to run the best routes. That comes from experience and coaching, both of which Gary Pinkel hasn't had the time yet to drill into this receiving core. They have size, all over 6'2", but most of their moves are straight ahead, relying on their body position to make plays. That works in high school. It doesn't work in college against teams with a pulse. Their best receiver is probably #2 Nate Brown with 4 TDs and 200+ yards on the season, but he's just a first year starting sophomore that had only one catch all day against this Florida defense. Against any and all secondaries with real talent, expect these guys to struggle.
The running game isn't much better. #21 Ish Witter is their main runningback, and Florida absolutely shut him down. Frankly, I wasn't impressed with the kid at all. Again, he's a starting sophomore with no real experience, but that doesn't usually stop runningbacks from showing something on film. The guy that DID show me something was #32 Russell Hansbrough. I'd be giving that guy more carries going forward if I'm running the show at Missouri. He's quick, hits the hole well, and managed to find several open spaces against a tough Florida run defense. He had a 26 yard run as his long in the game, and he averaged over 8 yards a carry. Yet, he only had 9 touches in the game for reasons unknown to me.
Overall, the main takeaway I have with Missouri is that the defense looks seasoned, tough, and ready to rumble. The offense looks the exact opposite: young, weak, and easily put off the field. If you're playing Missouri, you want to play them now rather than later, because every game Lock and these receivers put under their belt is going to make them better. I wouldn't be shocked if they get to a bowl game that Missouri finally puts it together and starts scoring some points.
Let's begin with the stuff most people want to hear about, the Missouri QB Drew Lock. He's a true freshman who was pressed into service by coach Gary Pinkel because his veteran QB Maty Mauk decided to break some rules. What rules I'm not sure. What I am sure of is that Gary was sick enough of Maty to let a true freshman play QB, so I'm guessing Maty got drunk and tried to violate one of his houseplants or something.
Anyway, Drew Lock's main attraction is that he's got a great arm. At times during the broadcast Jesse Palmer was giving him high praise as having an NFL-style cannon. I'm not sure it's THAT good, but he can certainly air it out. And that's both a blessing and a curse. Because he's a true freshman, he doesn't have all the touch accuracy that you'd expect from a true starting college QB, and that led him to have several overthrows in this game. That would be the tendency when you're a gunslinger because you know you're not going to short-hop any receivers. As Lock learns to control the cannon, he'll find it easier to put those throws on the money.
The other thing about Lock is that he looks like he's 12. You see him in the helmet and you think he's going to sell you chocolate bars for the band. And his youth really worked against him in another way in this game, because Florida's pass rush is relentless. One way to really disrupt a young passer is to get him off his spot in the pocket. I admire how Lock naturally moves and keeps his eyes downfield, but he's nowhere near experienced enough yet to make the throw on the run with consistency. That will come with time, but probably not during this season. However, if he's facing a team that doesn't move him? Like South Carolina for example? He looks like a world-beater making dink and dunk passes as will. It's death by 1000 cuts, and with the defense that Missouri has, paper cuts could be enough.
In essence, Lock is young. But the Missouri defense is not. And they are fierce. They spotted Florida 14 points very early on incredibly stupid personal foul penalties for a late hit and a face mask that kept drives alive. If they don't take those? I think the game likely goes to the half tied 3-3. The other Florida TD was on a pick 6, and that was the final score 21-3. To put it another way, after going down 14-3 in the first 10 minutes of the game, the Missouri defense allowed absolutely no offensive scores for the rest of the game. 50 minutes of pure defensive shutout. And that's not abnormal, as they lead the SEC in defensive points allowed. Ahead of even LSU and Alabama.
But why is the defense so good? Mainly because they trust the secondary, their entirely lineman are huge, and they have speed on the edges. And by trust their secondary, I mean they will press up on the line against receivers and take away the quick throws. Plus, and here's a big key, they can actually TACKLE. That sounds stupid, but if you're an SEC fan of a bad defense, you know exactly how huge that is with college players. Making one-on-one tackles, playing contain until you get some help, and having your secondary get involved in run defense? Those are hallmarks of this Missouri team, and they all showed up in the game against Florida.
A few defensive players made me stand up and take notice in this game, the first of which was #97 Josh Augusta. The dude is absolute enormous in the middle and a huge help as a space-eater and in run defense. He's 6'4" and listed at 335 pounds. I'm not sure I believe he's less than 350 just looking at him. Next is #91 DE Charles Harris, who had a sack in the game and 6 tackles. He's 6'2" and 255 pounds with good speed and agility. Harris has the ability to shed blocks with straight ahead moves, or in the case of his sack a very impressive inside spin-move. The last guy was #11 Aarion Penton, their best DB in my mind. He was involved everywhere, making tackles in the run game, breaking up passes, and making tackles on the edge, even blitzing at times.
But if the defense is this good, why are they losing games? Because the offense is a youthful looking train wreck. While Lock is learning his craft at QB, he's unfortunately saddled with several WR's who are just as young and learning their way. Talented? Sure. But talent doesn't help you figure out how to run the best routes. That comes from experience and coaching, both of which Gary Pinkel hasn't had the time yet to drill into this receiving core. They have size, all over 6'2", but most of their moves are straight ahead, relying on their body position to make plays. That works in high school. It doesn't work in college against teams with a pulse. Their best receiver is probably #2 Nate Brown with 4 TDs and 200+ yards on the season, but he's just a first year starting sophomore that had only one catch all day against this Florida defense. Against any and all secondaries with real talent, expect these guys to struggle.
The running game isn't much better. #21 Ish Witter is their main runningback, and Florida absolutely shut him down. Frankly, I wasn't impressed with the kid at all. Again, he's a starting sophomore with no real experience, but that doesn't usually stop runningbacks from showing something on film. The guy that DID show me something was #32 Russell Hansbrough. I'd be giving that guy more carries going forward if I'm running the show at Missouri. He's quick, hits the hole well, and managed to find several open spaces against a tough Florida run defense. He had a 26 yard run as his long in the game, and he averaged over 8 yards a carry. Yet, he only had 9 touches in the game for reasons unknown to me.
Overall, the main takeaway I have with Missouri is that the defense looks seasoned, tough, and ready to rumble. The offense looks the exact opposite: young, weak, and easily put off the field. If you're playing Missouri, you want to play them now rather than later, because every game Lock and these receivers put under their belt is going to make them better. I wouldn't be shocked if they get to a bowl game that Missouri finally puts it together and starts scoring some points.
Friday, October 9, 2015
SEC Picks: Week Six
I'll start by saying that if Ole Miss didn't completely crap out last week, I would have been up 6 units on my picks. Instead, I was even. Again. So frustrating. I won't be even this week though, because I'm picking an odd number of games. Time to break that streak and get on the winning side!
There's a lot of odd spreads this week, so we're going to keep the action lighter than most.
2 Unit plays:
Georgia @ Tennessee +3 - I like GEORGIA -3 in this game. I'm not sure why the line is so close, but I think it's because Georgia got smashed in their last game and confidence is low. However, Tennessee is dead last in the SEC in defensive yardage, and 9th against the run. Given that Tennessee has struggled to close games, I think Georgia can get the win and the cover here.
1 Unit plays:
Florida @ Missouri +4 - I like FLORIDA -4 in this game. While Missouri found a better QB against South Carolina, several teams have proven they can move the ball on the Gamecocks. Moving it on Florida is a different animal, and Will Grier the Florida QB is riding higher than he's ever ridden before. The short passing game is the difference in this one.
Arkansas @ Alabama -16.5 - I like ALABAMA -16.5 in this game. I hate the spread in this game or it would be 2 units, but any time you have more than 14 points against Arkansas, you have to take pause. Their biggest loss is 11. However, they've only played teams with high passing attacks and very little running offense. They also haven't played a huge defensive line yet either. This could be their first taste of a beatdown.
South Carolina @ LSU -19.5 - I like LSU -19.5 in this game. The spread would have been -13.5 in Columbia, but it's much larger here and therefore takes this to a 1-unit play. Still, South Carolina was on the receiving end of a butt-kicking by UGA, who has a very similar offensive style to LSU. And LSU's defense is even better.
Ole Miss and MS State are playing garbage, while Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky are all on off-weeks.
There's a lot of odd spreads this week, so we're going to keep the action lighter than most.
2 Unit plays:
Georgia @ Tennessee +3 - I like GEORGIA -3 in this game. I'm not sure why the line is so close, but I think it's because Georgia got smashed in their last game and confidence is low. However, Tennessee is dead last in the SEC in defensive yardage, and 9th against the run. Given that Tennessee has struggled to close games, I think Georgia can get the win and the cover here.
1 Unit plays:
Florida @ Missouri +4 - I like FLORIDA -4 in this game. While Missouri found a better QB against South Carolina, several teams have proven they can move the ball on the Gamecocks. Moving it on Florida is a different animal, and Will Grier the Florida QB is riding higher than he's ever ridden before. The short passing game is the difference in this one.
Arkansas @ Alabama -16.5 - I like ALABAMA -16.5 in this game. I hate the spread in this game or it would be 2 units, but any time you have more than 14 points against Arkansas, you have to take pause. Their biggest loss is 11. However, they've only played teams with high passing attacks and very little running offense. They also haven't played a huge defensive line yet either. This could be their first taste of a beatdown.
South Carolina @ LSU -19.5 - I like LSU -19.5 in this game. The spread would have been -13.5 in Columbia, but it's much larger here and therefore takes this to a 1-unit play. Still, South Carolina was on the receiving end of a butt-kicking by UGA, who has a very similar offensive style to LSU. And LSU's defense is even better.
Ole Miss and MS State are playing garbage, while Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky are all on off-weeks.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Ole Miss Rebels v. Florida Gators: Week 5 Analysis
Apparently, the Gators had the flu for this game. If that's what the flu can do for your team, I hope the Bulldogs catch it just in time for the annual Cocktail Party. Alas, I think that storyline was probably overblown, because the group that looked like it had the flu was the Ole Miss offensive line. Which is really bizarre because it was supposed to be the Gators patchwork offensive line that struggled. Not so in this blowout that saw the Gators up 38-3 before Ole Miss got a garbage TD late.
Let's start by looking at the Gators. Defensively, I think you know what they are by now. The one thing that the Gators can hang their hat on is having some big push up front and their pass rush is relentless. One of their biggest threats, #90 Jonathan Bullard, is an absolute game-wrecker in the middle and on the edge. He's huge, 6-3 283 lbs., and he's experienced as a senior. If you don't game plan for him, you're going to be in huge trouble, and Ole Miss was in huge trouble. Add to that #94 Bryan Cox getting in on the fumble action, and it was a two-man wrecking crew getting to Chad Kelly all night long.
The Gators held the previously high-flying Rebels to just 10 points, 5-14 on 3rd down, and 4 turnovers. That's good enough to win almost any game, but the Gators decided to have the best offensive night of their lives as well. Will Grier was out of his mind passing the ball hitting almost everything he threw, 24-29 with 4 TDs and 271 yards. Now, if you just look at those numbers you'd think BEST QB IN THE SEC RIGHT NOW!
But you'd be dead wrong. Grier has several really fundamental flaws in his game, and it's only a matter of time until somebody (I'm very much looking at you LSU) completely exploits them. Start by watching the way Grier throws the ball. I'm not kidding when I say that 80% of the time I watched him pass, he's either jumping or throwing off his back foot. The kid's footwork is horrific, and once you notice it, it's the only thing you'll see. The first TD is a great example of this. Grier is about to get popped right in the middle, so he throws deep over the middle off his back foot into double coverage. It's the same play that 95% of the time leads to an interception. In this case though, Ole Miss's vaunted land shark defense completely over pursued, and got beat deep. Senior DB Mike Hilton was the one who messed it up, and I can only assume it was because the throw was so out of place he got confused.
It doesn't stop there with Grier though, he's getting most of his yardage on short and middle level throws. The Jim McElwain offense relys heavily on TE play, and they run formations with them bunched in tight sets quite often. Note if you are playing the Gators, Will Grier is not adept throwing the ball deep. Why? Because he's off his back foot all the time. So there's no reason to worry about really deep coverage most of the time (unless you completely botch safety coverage, see prior paragraph) because he underthrows it constantly, and because the Gator offensive line won't give him time to do it. Instead, the tendency is to throw within the first 2 seconds to a hot read, and then watch the fireworks.
This leads me to Ole Miss's defense. Holy hell Ole Miss D-Coordinator, I'd seriously consider firing you for this gameplan. Even I picked up on the fact that about one quarter in to the game, it's mainly just Florida throwing to tight-ends and screens and middle-level short passes. But what did they do? THEY KEPT PLAYING SOFT ZONE. It was maddening. I'm screaming at the TV that they need to man the heck up and get on the line, because they were getting dinked and dunked to death by Grier. And finally they got burned on the third TD because #30 AJ Moore took a horrific angle on a crossing route, Grier dumped him the ball 8 yards down the field, and the rest was watching the Gators Brandon Powell run 77 yards as the announcers blared, "IF HE'S EVEN, HE'S LEAVING!"
And yet, Ole Miss wouldn't cover the tight ends. They wouldn't play tight on the line in man. They would run free from the line with 5-6 yard passes, over and over and over again. The Gators running game is okay but it's far from impressive. They only had 84 yards on 34 attempts. That's less than 2.5 per carry. In fact, Florida's running offense is rated 12th in the conference. So why would I even worry about it as a DC? I'd plan my entire attack on making Grier think, and throw off his back foot right to my guys. Instead, it looked like Ole Miss didn't play enough coverage, went too soft, and got burned by the volume passing attack.
But the game wouldn't have gone wrong if not for all the Ole Miss offensive mistakes. This actually rivaled the Alabama game in terms of hideous self-inflicted wounds, expect this time is was Ole Miss on the receiving end. The Football Gods giveth, and they cruelly taketh away inside the Swamp. It started with a really bad exchange between QB Chad Kelly and his running back, the ball popping straight into the air and right into a Florida defender's hands. It got worse in the next possessions as they had a drive killing snap over Kelly's head that went 15 yards the wrong direction. Then, Ole Miss after a really long drive, they bogged down in the red zone and tried a field goal down 13-0, and missed it. Much like the Georgia game, domino after domino kept falling until eventually Ole Miss was playing in a mess of their own design.
But if you think Grier was the better QB in this game, you're nuts. Chad Kelly is amazingly talented, and he was the singular thing that was working for Ole Miss on this entire night. His offensive line constantly hung him out to dry. I counted 18 times when they completely outright missed tackles, or in some cases when a line rusher came free because two linemen were blocking the same guy! It's okay to do a double-team if everyone is accounted for. When they aren't, you look like morons. That was the real disaster for Ole Miss, and that's the one thing that can be a huge issue going for them long term. When they run into a fast defense that can abuse the line on the pass rush? They are in some big trouble.
Still, Kelly went 26-40 for 269, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 40 yards on the ground. In a loss. He was the lead rusher as well. When I watch Kelly play I'm impressed not only by how tough the kid is running the ball and escaping the absolute disaster of a line he was playing behind, but I'm also amazed that he's one of the few QBs in the SEC who can make a read. His feet are always moving, he's in good positions in the pocket when there is one, and he can go through a full progression. He actually looks like what you'd think of as an NFL-style passer. He's not there yet obviously, but the tools are there for him to keep improving. And why not? He's the nephew of famed NFL QB Jim Kelly, so he probably knows exactly where to go for great passing tips. Plus he has another year left of eligibility to continue to get better.
Is Ole Miss suddenly bad after beating a great Alabama team? Was that a fluke? If you believe that you're an idiot. They have probably the best QB in the SEC, the best receiver in the SEC in Treadwell (who they absolutely didn't use enough), and one of the best defenders in the country in Robert Nkimdiche. But Florida had the better plan and it they won the game because it their coaching approaching and execution. Ole Miss has all the pieces to be spectacular if they can make some adjustments in the coaching department. And I absolutely do question their coaching decisions, and their approach. Especially not defending the line and going into soft zone.
At some point as the Ole Miss coaches, you had to realize the running game was not working, yet they refused to abandon it even down 25-0. Ole Miss actually got to the goal line at one point, and instead of passing like what got them there, they ran 3 straight plays right into the teeth of the Florida defense. Stupid. And then they kicked a field goal? You're down 25-0, and you're one of the better 4th down teams in the conference, and you...KICKED A FIELD GOAL? How gutless is that? The coaches need to reevaluate why they are out there if that's the best you can do. What? Afraid of a shutout? Get real, you go for the TD. And for that matter after you kicker missed the first short one, I'm shocked it was even on the table as an option.
Ole Miss has 2 cupcakes before they play Texas A&M, and I can't wait to see how they rebound in that game. Florida has Missouri and LSU on the road next, and I believe fully that Missouri sets up completely as a trap game for Florida. They are fast, they are well-coached, and they have suddenly found a QB over at Missouri that looks like he's not just a gun-slinging idiot. That might be more of a game than the analysts think.
Let's start by looking at the Gators. Defensively, I think you know what they are by now. The one thing that the Gators can hang their hat on is having some big push up front and their pass rush is relentless. One of their biggest threats, #90 Jonathan Bullard, is an absolute game-wrecker in the middle and on the edge. He's huge, 6-3 283 lbs., and he's experienced as a senior. If you don't game plan for him, you're going to be in huge trouble, and Ole Miss was in huge trouble. Add to that #94 Bryan Cox getting in on the fumble action, and it was a two-man wrecking crew getting to Chad Kelly all night long.
The Gators held the previously high-flying Rebels to just 10 points, 5-14 on 3rd down, and 4 turnovers. That's good enough to win almost any game, but the Gators decided to have the best offensive night of their lives as well. Will Grier was out of his mind passing the ball hitting almost everything he threw, 24-29 with 4 TDs and 271 yards. Now, if you just look at those numbers you'd think BEST QB IN THE SEC RIGHT NOW!
But you'd be dead wrong. Grier has several really fundamental flaws in his game, and it's only a matter of time until somebody (I'm very much looking at you LSU) completely exploits them. Start by watching the way Grier throws the ball. I'm not kidding when I say that 80% of the time I watched him pass, he's either jumping or throwing off his back foot. The kid's footwork is horrific, and once you notice it, it's the only thing you'll see. The first TD is a great example of this. Grier is about to get popped right in the middle, so he throws deep over the middle off his back foot into double coverage. It's the same play that 95% of the time leads to an interception. In this case though, Ole Miss's vaunted land shark defense completely over pursued, and got beat deep. Senior DB Mike Hilton was the one who messed it up, and I can only assume it was because the throw was so out of place he got confused.
It doesn't stop there with Grier though, he's getting most of his yardage on short and middle level throws. The Jim McElwain offense relys heavily on TE play, and they run formations with them bunched in tight sets quite often. Note if you are playing the Gators, Will Grier is not adept throwing the ball deep. Why? Because he's off his back foot all the time. So there's no reason to worry about really deep coverage most of the time (unless you completely botch safety coverage, see prior paragraph) because he underthrows it constantly, and because the Gator offensive line won't give him time to do it. Instead, the tendency is to throw within the first 2 seconds to a hot read, and then watch the fireworks.
This leads me to Ole Miss's defense. Holy hell Ole Miss D-Coordinator, I'd seriously consider firing you for this gameplan. Even I picked up on the fact that about one quarter in to the game, it's mainly just Florida throwing to tight-ends and screens and middle-level short passes. But what did they do? THEY KEPT PLAYING SOFT ZONE. It was maddening. I'm screaming at the TV that they need to man the heck up and get on the line, because they were getting dinked and dunked to death by Grier. And finally they got burned on the third TD because #30 AJ Moore took a horrific angle on a crossing route, Grier dumped him the ball 8 yards down the field, and the rest was watching the Gators Brandon Powell run 77 yards as the announcers blared, "IF HE'S EVEN, HE'S LEAVING!"
And yet, Ole Miss wouldn't cover the tight ends. They wouldn't play tight on the line in man. They would run free from the line with 5-6 yard passes, over and over and over again. The Gators running game is okay but it's far from impressive. They only had 84 yards on 34 attempts. That's less than 2.5 per carry. In fact, Florida's running offense is rated 12th in the conference. So why would I even worry about it as a DC? I'd plan my entire attack on making Grier think, and throw off his back foot right to my guys. Instead, it looked like Ole Miss didn't play enough coverage, went too soft, and got burned by the volume passing attack.
But the game wouldn't have gone wrong if not for all the Ole Miss offensive mistakes. This actually rivaled the Alabama game in terms of hideous self-inflicted wounds, expect this time is was Ole Miss on the receiving end. The Football Gods giveth, and they cruelly taketh away inside the Swamp. It started with a really bad exchange between QB Chad Kelly and his running back, the ball popping straight into the air and right into a Florida defender's hands. It got worse in the next possessions as they had a drive killing snap over Kelly's head that went 15 yards the wrong direction. Then, Ole Miss after a really long drive, they bogged down in the red zone and tried a field goal down 13-0, and missed it. Much like the Georgia game, domino after domino kept falling until eventually Ole Miss was playing in a mess of their own design.
But if you think Grier was the better QB in this game, you're nuts. Chad Kelly is amazingly talented, and he was the singular thing that was working for Ole Miss on this entire night. His offensive line constantly hung him out to dry. I counted 18 times when they completely outright missed tackles, or in some cases when a line rusher came free because two linemen were blocking the same guy! It's okay to do a double-team if everyone is accounted for. When they aren't, you look like morons. That was the real disaster for Ole Miss, and that's the one thing that can be a huge issue going for them long term. When they run into a fast defense that can abuse the line on the pass rush? They are in some big trouble.
Still, Kelly went 26-40 for 269, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 40 yards on the ground. In a loss. He was the lead rusher as well. When I watch Kelly play I'm impressed not only by how tough the kid is running the ball and escaping the absolute disaster of a line he was playing behind, but I'm also amazed that he's one of the few QBs in the SEC who can make a read. His feet are always moving, he's in good positions in the pocket when there is one, and he can go through a full progression. He actually looks like what you'd think of as an NFL-style passer. He's not there yet obviously, but the tools are there for him to keep improving. And why not? He's the nephew of famed NFL QB Jim Kelly, so he probably knows exactly where to go for great passing tips. Plus he has another year left of eligibility to continue to get better.
Is Ole Miss suddenly bad after beating a great Alabama team? Was that a fluke? If you believe that you're an idiot. They have probably the best QB in the SEC, the best receiver in the SEC in Treadwell (who they absolutely didn't use enough), and one of the best defenders in the country in Robert Nkimdiche. But Florida had the better plan and it they won the game because it their coaching approaching and execution. Ole Miss has all the pieces to be spectacular if they can make some adjustments in the coaching department. And I absolutely do question their coaching decisions, and their approach. Especially not defending the line and going into soft zone.
At some point as the Ole Miss coaches, you had to realize the running game was not working, yet they refused to abandon it even down 25-0. Ole Miss actually got to the goal line at one point, and instead of passing like what got them there, they ran 3 straight plays right into the teeth of the Florida defense. Stupid. And then they kicked a field goal? You're down 25-0, and you're one of the better 4th down teams in the conference, and you...KICKED A FIELD GOAL? How gutless is that? The coaches need to reevaluate why they are out there if that's the best you can do. What? Afraid of a shutout? Get real, you go for the TD. And for that matter after you kicker missed the first short one, I'm shocked it was even on the table as an option.
Ole Miss has 2 cupcakes before they play Texas A&M, and I can't wait to see how they rebound in that game. Florida has Missouri and LSU on the road next, and I believe fully that Missouri sets up completely as a trap game for Florida. They are fast, they are well-coached, and they have suddenly found a QB over at Missouri that looks like he's not just a gun-slinging idiot. That might be more of a game than the analysts think.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Alabama Crimson Tide v. Georgia Bulldogs: Week 5 Analysis
I'm doing two games this week, and lucky me, the first one is the Georgia massacre that rivaled the 2008 blackout game in Athens against Alabama. I was there in the stands for most of it. I'm not ashamed to say I left that trainwreck after it was 31-3, but I didn't miss much. The outcome was already a forgone conclusion with Alabama winning 38-10.
So with that said, I take my fan hat off and put my analyst hat on to review the film. Like many people who watch such a one-sided game, you completely forget the circumstances both good and bad that led to the outcome. All you remember is the feeling of despair or elation depending what side you happen on be on. That euphoria or depression can often color the game in tones that aren't 100% accurate. That's why it's good to take a second look, no matter how painful.
One thing I'd immediately forgotten is how good the game started for Georgia. Even though they didn't get a first down on the first possession, they turned over Alabama with a fumble and had the ball in opposing territory. But they couldn't seem to get any push up front in the run game, and QB Greyson Lambert kept missing open guys that could have been huge plays. In the first possession he underthrew a wide open Malcom Mitchell that would have been a 30 yard play, and in the second possession he completely didn't see a wide open Nick Chubb streaking across the middle that would have gone for at least 25 yards if not more. Instead he checked it down and ran out of bounds. Making those plays really would have changed the complexion of the game.
But no matter how the game started it was a see-saw ugly offensive affair until the second quarter. With the score 3-3 and 12 minutes left in the half, it looked like anybody's game. Exactly 17 minutes later in game time with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was 38-3 and Alabama took their foot off the gas. That's right, 35 points in 17 game minutes. That's over 2 points a minute. Even TCU can't put up that kind of offense across the board. And what's worse, Saban actually took pity on the Bulldogs, calling off his offense, and running out the clock with run plays for the rest of the game. They never scored again after getting to 38 with 25 minutes left in the game, and they didn't have to.
How did it go so wrong so fast? It wasn't just one thing. It was like watching dominos slowly fall over in a cascading series of lines until eventually it's 1000 lines of dominos clacking away, echoing the sound and fury of your impending doom. The first domino was Derrick Henry running for a touchdown to make it 10-3. That happened because Alabama's Center, Ryan Kelly who I've remarked about as one of their best blockers in previous posts, put the wood to two Dawgs lineman in the middle and swung open a hole that only #51 Jake Ganus could have filled. Instead, he overpursued and got blasted out of the way while Derrick Henry strolled through the tulips.
The next domino came in what I think of as the defining point of the game, the blocked punt by Alabama for the TD. Georgia's #91 who is a defensive end but for some reason blocks on punts, completely looked the wrong way as Minkah Fitzpatrick came free on the right side with the block, scoop, and score. After that, the next domino it was Jake Coker going deep to Calvin Ridley for a 45 yard TD as coverage completely broke down with #35 Aaron Davis and #20 Quincey Mauger. Both of those secondary players for Georgia had a horrific day. By that point all the dominos were falling and Georgia was powerless to stop it. If I'm watching film as Tennessee I'm telling Josh Dobbs to find #35 and light him up.
But it wasn't over. Brice Ramsey came in as QB for Georgia and immediately threw a Pick 6 right over the middle to make it 31-3. It was one of the dumbest throws you'll ever see. If you were one of those people who wondered why Georgia never started Ramsey, this is why. He's an idiot. You can't make that throw in high school, let along in the rain, down 21 points, over the middle, with the safety literally standing by himself between the hashes. It's crap they teach QBs the moment they learn to throw. Don't throw late across your body, and don't throw deep middle with a safety sitting between the hashmarks.
The reason Brice came into the game is because Greyson Lambert looked completely shell shocked. He went from making some short throws and barely missing targets to suddenly one-hopping passes and completely missing receivers by the end of the second half. Basically, he looked like a guy from UVA who realized he was actually playing in the SEC against Alabama. I don't blame Richt for making the change because Lambert mentally was toast. I do blame Richt for making the change to Brice instead of Bauta, because Brice has never been responsible with the ball while Bauta was known for his work ethic and intelligence, just not his gunner arm. I'd have prefered the game manager at the point to calm things down, not the gunslinger who lost the game.
Make no mistake, Alabama won this game in all phases. They dominated the line of scrimmage, the passing game, the running game, and special games. They had almost every version of a TD you can think of except the sack-fumble score. And the MVP of the game for me was QB Jake Coker. He was looking off safeties, making great decisions, and finding the open man with ease. On the TD pass he stood in the pocket and got blasted, but absolutely delivered on a dime for that 45 yard score. Coker looked like the guy I was so impressed with against Wisconsin, and the Alabama defense looked more dominant than I'd seen it all season. Oh and Alabama fans who hate Lane Kiffin? He called a masterful game. I don't like the guy but even I can see how good he is when the offense is working the way he wants it.
However, the rain played a factor in that, and I think Georgia panicked because of it. Georgia coaches realized that in a rain-soaked game, they were subject to getting dump-trucked by Alabama's bigger, more aggressive lineman. They were correct. The problem was they put the game in the hands of Lambert, who was woefully unqualified in his first game against real competition to handle that kind of responsibility. And so Georgia got trampled, and Alabama looked like world-beaters the week after looking completely inept against Ole Miss.
Now, many Alabama supporters will say since Ole Miss lost to Florida and they dominated Georgia that they Ole Miss loss was a fluke. Not really in my estimation. If anything I'd say the Georgia blowout was the fluke. In a good weather game, or in a dome, I don't think this game goes anything like what we saw. Alabama was getting tested and getting beaten by Malcolm Mitchell on #26 Marlon Humphrey, but the rain was making it impossible for Lambert to get him the ball. In fact, the ball actually slipped completely out of Lambert's hands at one point and flew backwards.
Alabama is and always be bigger. If you get into an ass-kicking contest with them, you shall find you ass-kicked. That's just weight, height, and physics. HOWEVER, if you get into a speed contest with them and test them on the outside with a spread? It's a different ballgame. And Alabama has at least 2 of those games left, along with another interestingly fast team in LSU who runs a variation of the run-option with one of the more talented RB's in the country.
Georgia is also not as bad as they looked. I think this game was a series of events that just led the kids involved to completely get caught in quicksand and give up. A lot of that hangs on the coaches for not having them better prepared, but more of it hangs on the coaches for putting in a gameplan that was completely unfeasible. You were never going to beat Alabama with Greyson Lambert. Better to let Nick Chubb run it 30 times and see what happened, grinding it out with punts and field position, than to try and fling it around and bury yourself in a blowout. Like they say in baseball to pitchers, you never want to get beat on your 2nd best pitch.
But while Georgia wasn't as bad in all facets, the offensive line absolutely was. That's my biggest concern about Georgia going forward when they get ready to face a tough defensive line in Tennessee, and an even tougher defensive line in Florida. Guys like #73 Greg Pyke, #75 Kolton Houston, and the new Center #54 Brandon Kublanow? They were getting tossed around like rag dolls on rollerskates. And that's a huge problem considering that it's a new QB and a new center at Georgia. When you're not on the same page, things unravel just like they did in this game.
Next up, the Dogs face Tennesse, and Alabama faces a down Arkansas team. Both teams SHOULD have no trouble getting wins if they stick to their gameplans. However, I'd say the seat is way hotter for Georgia, who can't let Alabama beat them twice. Once on the field, and once more in their minds as they get ready to play the Vols.
So with that said, I take my fan hat off and put my analyst hat on to review the film. Like many people who watch such a one-sided game, you completely forget the circumstances both good and bad that led to the outcome. All you remember is the feeling of despair or elation depending what side you happen on be on. That euphoria or depression can often color the game in tones that aren't 100% accurate. That's why it's good to take a second look, no matter how painful.
One thing I'd immediately forgotten is how good the game started for Georgia. Even though they didn't get a first down on the first possession, they turned over Alabama with a fumble and had the ball in opposing territory. But they couldn't seem to get any push up front in the run game, and QB Greyson Lambert kept missing open guys that could have been huge plays. In the first possession he underthrew a wide open Malcom Mitchell that would have been a 30 yard play, and in the second possession he completely didn't see a wide open Nick Chubb streaking across the middle that would have gone for at least 25 yards if not more. Instead he checked it down and ran out of bounds. Making those plays really would have changed the complexion of the game.
But no matter how the game started it was a see-saw ugly offensive affair until the second quarter. With the score 3-3 and 12 minutes left in the half, it looked like anybody's game. Exactly 17 minutes later in game time with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was 38-3 and Alabama took their foot off the gas. That's right, 35 points in 17 game minutes. That's over 2 points a minute. Even TCU can't put up that kind of offense across the board. And what's worse, Saban actually took pity on the Bulldogs, calling off his offense, and running out the clock with run plays for the rest of the game. They never scored again after getting to 38 with 25 minutes left in the game, and they didn't have to.
How did it go so wrong so fast? It wasn't just one thing. It was like watching dominos slowly fall over in a cascading series of lines until eventually it's 1000 lines of dominos clacking away, echoing the sound and fury of your impending doom. The first domino was Derrick Henry running for a touchdown to make it 10-3. That happened because Alabama's Center, Ryan Kelly who I've remarked about as one of their best blockers in previous posts, put the wood to two Dawgs lineman in the middle and swung open a hole that only #51 Jake Ganus could have filled. Instead, he overpursued and got blasted out of the way while Derrick Henry strolled through the tulips.
The next domino came in what I think of as the defining point of the game, the blocked punt by Alabama for the TD. Georgia's #91 who is a defensive end but for some reason blocks on punts, completely looked the wrong way as Minkah Fitzpatrick came free on the right side with the block, scoop, and score. After that, the next domino it was Jake Coker going deep to Calvin Ridley for a 45 yard TD as coverage completely broke down with #35 Aaron Davis and #20 Quincey Mauger. Both of those secondary players for Georgia had a horrific day. By that point all the dominos were falling and Georgia was powerless to stop it. If I'm watching film as Tennessee I'm telling Josh Dobbs to find #35 and light him up.
But it wasn't over. Brice Ramsey came in as QB for Georgia and immediately threw a Pick 6 right over the middle to make it 31-3. It was one of the dumbest throws you'll ever see. If you were one of those people who wondered why Georgia never started Ramsey, this is why. He's an idiot. You can't make that throw in high school, let along in the rain, down 21 points, over the middle, with the safety literally standing by himself between the hashes. It's crap they teach QBs the moment they learn to throw. Don't throw late across your body, and don't throw deep middle with a safety sitting between the hashmarks.
The reason Brice came into the game is because Greyson Lambert looked completely shell shocked. He went from making some short throws and barely missing targets to suddenly one-hopping passes and completely missing receivers by the end of the second half. Basically, he looked like a guy from UVA who realized he was actually playing in the SEC against Alabama. I don't blame Richt for making the change because Lambert mentally was toast. I do blame Richt for making the change to Brice instead of Bauta, because Brice has never been responsible with the ball while Bauta was known for his work ethic and intelligence, just not his gunner arm. I'd have prefered the game manager at the point to calm things down, not the gunslinger who lost the game.
Make no mistake, Alabama won this game in all phases. They dominated the line of scrimmage, the passing game, the running game, and special games. They had almost every version of a TD you can think of except the sack-fumble score. And the MVP of the game for me was QB Jake Coker. He was looking off safeties, making great decisions, and finding the open man with ease. On the TD pass he stood in the pocket and got blasted, but absolutely delivered on a dime for that 45 yard score. Coker looked like the guy I was so impressed with against Wisconsin, and the Alabama defense looked more dominant than I'd seen it all season. Oh and Alabama fans who hate Lane Kiffin? He called a masterful game. I don't like the guy but even I can see how good he is when the offense is working the way he wants it.
However, the rain played a factor in that, and I think Georgia panicked because of it. Georgia coaches realized that in a rain-soaked game, they were subject to getting dump-trucked by Alabama's bigger, more aggressive lineman. They were correct. The problem was they put the game in the hands of Lambert, who was woefully unqualified in his first game against real competition to handle that kind of responsibility. And so Georgia got trampled, and Alabama looked like world-beaters the week after looking completely inept against Ole Miss.
Now, many Alabama supporters will say since Ole Miss lost to Florida and they dominated Georgia that they Ole Miss loss was a fluke. Not really in my estimation. If anything I'd say the Georgia blowout was the fluke. In a good weather game, or in a dome, I don't think this game goes anything like what we saw. Alabama was getting tested and getting beaten by Malcolm Mitchell on #26 Marlon Humphrey, but the rain was making it impossible for Lambert to get him the ball. In fact, the ball actually slipped completely out of Lambert's hands at one point and flew backwards.
Alabama is and always be bigger. If you get into an ass-kicking contest with them, you shall find you ass-kicked. That's just weight, height, and physics. HOWEVER, if you get into a speed contest with them and test them on the outside with a spread? It's a different ballgame. And Alabama has at least 2 of those games left, along with another interestingly fast team in LSU who runs a variation of the run-option with one of the more talented RB's in the country.
Georgia is also not as bad as they looked. I think this game was a series of events that just led the kids involved to completely get caught in quicksand and give up. A lot of that hangs on the coaches for not having them better prepared, but more of it hangs on the coaches for putting in a gameplan that was completely unfeasible. You were never going to beat Alabama with Greyson Lambert. Better to let Nick Chubb run it 30 times and see what happened, grinding it out with punts and field position, than to try and fling it around and bury yourself in a blowout. Like they say in baseball to pitchers, you never want to get beat on your 2nd best pitch.
But while Georgia wasn't as bad in all facets, the offensive line absolutely was. That's my biggest concern about Georgia going forward when they get ready to face a tough defensive line in Tennessee, and an even tougher defensive line in Florida. Guys like #73 Greg Pyke, #75 Kolton Houston, and the new Center #54 Brandon Kublanow? They were getting tossed around like rag dolls on rollerskates. And that's a huge problem considering that it's a new QB and a new center at Georgia. When you're not on the same page, things unravel just like they did in this game.
Next up, the Dogs face Tennesse, and Alabama faces a down Arkansas team. Both teams SHOULD have no trouble getting wins if they stick to their gameplans. However, I'd say the seat is way hotter for Georgia, who can't let Alabama beat them twice. Once on the field, and once more in their minds as they get ready to play the Vols.
Friday, October 2, 2015
SEC Picks Week 5
Went 4-4 on the units last week, I'm stuck in a .500 rut after getting down early by those first 2 units. This may be the week we're pulling out of it though with a full slate of SEC action. Here's the picks!
Three Units:
Ole Miss v. Florida +7.5 - I like OLE MISS -7.5 in this game. Florida's offensive line is a problem, and Ole Miss has probably the best defensive player in the country on the other side, waiting to demolish whatever pitiful offense Florida tries to muster. Given Ole Miss wanting to prove a point, I'm going big here. Three units.
Two Unit:
Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +6.5 - I like TEXAS A&M -6.5 in this game. Mississippi State has struggled on both sides of the ball, while Texas A&M has been bucking their prior ATS trend with a 3-1 start as a favorite. With the line less than a TD, I like 2 units here this week.
One Unit:
Missouri v. South Carolina +3.5 - I like SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5 in this game. Neither team impresses me at all, but Missouri suspended their QB for this game, and that's worth a unit on the opposing squad.
Georgia v. Alabama +2.5 - I like ALABAMA +2.5 in this game. The game is honestly about as even as you can get by paper, but there's a rain factor involved here. The idea of a muddy, sloppy contest in the wind and the rain? That favors the bigger line and the bigger back. Both of those are on Alabama's side, not Georgia's. Since Alabama is the underdog, I like them in a really close match. Georgia might even squeeze out a close win, but Alabama gets the cover.
Tennessee v. Arkansas +5.5 - I like ARKANSAS +5.5 in this game. I expect this disaster of a game to be ugly and close. I'm going with the points. I won't be watching any of it because it will be horrible football to consume. I said I wouldn't pick them anymore, but I've watched Tennessee struggle to hold any lead.
Auburn, LSU, Vandy, and Kentucky are all playing crap.
Three Units:
Ole Miss v. Florida +7.5 - I like OLE MISS -7.5 in this game. Florida's offensive line is a problem, and Ole Miss has probably the best defensive player in the country on the other side, waiting to demolish whatever pitiful offense Florida tries to muster. Given Ole Miss wanting to prove a point, I'm going big here. Three units.
Two Unit:
Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +6.5 - I like TEXAS A&M -6.5 in this game. Mississippi State has struggled on both sides of the ball, while Texas A&M has been bucking their prior ATS trend with a 3-1 start as a favorite. With the line less than a TD, I like 2 units here this week.
One Unit:
Missouri v. South Carolina +3.5 - I like SOUTH CAROLINA +3.5 in this game. Neither team impresses me at all, but Missouri suspended their QB for this game, and that's worth a unit on the opposing squad.
Georgia v. Alabama +2.5 - I like ALABAMA +2.5 in this game. The game is honestly about as even as you can get by paper, but there's a rain factor involved here. The idea of a muddy, sloppy contest in the wind and the rain? That favors the bigger line and the bigger back. Both of those are on Alabama's side, not Georgia's. Since Alabama is the underdog, I like them in a really close match. Georgia might even squeeze out a close win, but Alabama gets the cover.
Tennessee v. Arkansas +5.5 - I like ARKANSAS +5.5 in this game. I expect this disaster of a game to be ugly and close. I'm going with the points. I won't be watching any of it because it will be horrible football to consume. I said I wouldn't pick them anymore, but I've watched Tennessee struggle to hold any lead.
Auburn, LSU, Vandy, and Kentucky are all playing crap.
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