Okay folks it's time for my season picks, and my recommended bets for the year (for entertainment purposes only, don't bet your house on this stuff). I'll start by listing out my projected win totals for each team and their corresponding over/under season bet. I'll pull from the Bovada numbers as of this morning for my picks.
OVER UNDER SEASON WINS
ALABAMA - Projected Wins 11 - O/U Total 9.5 - ADVICE: OVER The over seems obvious here, and because of that, Bovada jacked up the over odds to -280 on this pick. Sportsbook.ga moved the line to 10 games as the total with a number of -135 to bet that. My advice is if you want the Alabama pick, find a line that moved to 10 and take the push for the better odds if Alabama wins 11. The odds they win 9 in my mind is pretty low.
FLORIDA - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 8 - ADVICE: OVER The over looks like a good play for a lot of reasons here. First if you're betting it, your downside is that Florida drops two more games than my projection and finishes 7-5 to take a loss. Second, is that likely coming off a year they won the East easily with a bad QB? I don't think so. Third, you push on an 8, which gives you a lot of the upside. -130 to take the over.
OLE MISS - Projected Wins 8 - O/U Total 9.5 - ADVICE: AVOID Everyone is taking the under. On Bovada it moved to -250 on the under, while on Sportsbook.ag they moved it to 8 win even. If you like getting bad odds, you can take the under on a pretty sure thing according to the public, but I like avoiding this bet completely.
TENNESSEE - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 10 - ADVICE: UNDER UNDER UNDER. I like the under with Tennessee at 10 wins for two reasons. First, they play Alabama and I don't think they win that game. Two, they play Florida, A&M and Georgia and I don't believe they win all three games. At the very least that puts you on a push. If you think they can drop another game anywhere you win. I don't see 11-1 in Tennessee's future, so I like the under here.
ARKANSAS - Projected Wins 6 - O/U Total 7 - ADVICE: UNDER Okay here's one of mine where you can make some serious money on the dark side. The world likes Arkansas over. So much on Bovada that they've driven it to -260. If you want to take a flyer that Arkansas goes in the tank, you can get the under +175 right now. I'd suggest it if you're frisky.
GEORGIA - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 9.5 - ADVICE: AVOID This is a sucker play. Don't bet on Georgia in a new season with a new QB, new coach, and a mostly new defense. Stay away from this one since there is no push option if things go way right or way wrong.
LSU - Projected Wins 10 - O/U Total 10.5 - ADVICE: AVOID Another sucker play. I want no part of determining if LSU loses one or two games, which is all this bet is about. It's too tight and we have no real read on that team against the West.
VANDY - Projected Wins 3 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: UNDER, I'd probably put a couple of units on this because Bovada has really jacked the odds around to -280 on the under. I have no idea why they have the number that high. I can see 5 wins maybe. I can see 6 wins in a career year. But 7 and the other side of a loss? That looks like madness to me right now.
MISSISSIPPI STATE - Projected Wins 7 - O/U Total - ADVICE: AVOID Bovada pulled the MS State line for some reason, but Sportsbook had it at 6.5 with -130 on the over. I think this is one of those you avoid. Don't throw money away on a MS State team we're not sure of this year.
KENTUCKY - Projected Wins 4 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: UNDER Love me some UNDER this year and here's another. Bovada's line is already -200 so I'm not alone. You're again only losing if Kentucky pulls off a miracle and wins 7 games. I don't see it.
TEXAS A&M - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: OVER. LOVE LOVE LOVE the OVER here. People are expecting a disaster in the gambling community on A&M, and the over is getting you +150 at Bovada. I'd take that and run with it.
MISSOURI - Projected Wins 6 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: AVOID Do nothing we have the push number here.
AUBURN - Projected Wins 6 - O/U Total 7 - ADVICE: AVOID Ehhhhh this one is split dead even in the community. You're getting -115 on both sides because nobody know about Auburn at all. I'd avoid simply because they are so schizo after the last few seasons you're likely to get burned.
SOUTH CAROLINA - Projected Wins 5 - O/U Total 6.5 - ADVICE: AVOID I've rarely seen this but the Under is now -300, which means people are scrambling to say SC will suck. I agree, I think they will be horrible, but you're getting no return at Bovada for that bet. Sportsbook moved the line to 5 even, which is what I had. This is one to avoid as well.
SEC DIVISION WINNERS
EAST - Florida is a good bet in the SEC East because they are getting +300 right now. I like them as a dark horse East winner mostly because they've beaten Tennessee 11 years in a row, and they beat them last year while Tennessee fielded pretty much the same team. Georgia would be a decent pick at +250 as well if you wanted to spread two bets in this scenario and still collect. You're essentially shading out Tennessee for the underdog plays.
WEST - Alabama is even money in the West for some reason. I'd jump on that. Why not after all. Until proven otherwise you can make some decent cash there. If you'd like a 2 play hedge, you can put 3 units on Alabama and 2 units on LSU at +180. If Alabama wins, you collect one unit. If LSU wins you collect a sixth of a unit. It's not a bad play to hedge out the top two favorites.
SEC CHAMPION
I have Alabama winning the SEC which would pay +160 on the bet. It's not great odds so I wouldn't recommend playing it. If you are looking for the dark horse play, there's Florida at +1800, or Georgia at +900. However, I find these kinds of bets to be a waste of time for the most part since Alabama probably is the prohibitive favorite and you're tying up your money on essentially a championship game.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Alabama SEC College Football 2016 Preview
Today we conclude all my SEC Previews with a look at the Alabama Crimson Tide, last year's SEC Champions, National Champions, and team of Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. Alabama lost only one game their entire season, and it was to an Ole Miss team that mostly beat them on turnovers and flinging the ball. Was it a bit of a fluke? Looking back, I'd have to say yes. But it was also the kind of fluke that Alabama needed to galvanize the team on their way to dominance of the league.
Alabama is the big bully on the block, and whoever wants to win the SEC is going through them first. Last season, Jake Coker did an admirable job at QB while throwing for over 3100 yards and 21 TDs. He also threw 8 picks, which an Alabama QB under Nick Saban is NOT supposed to do. The Tide usually pride themselves in not turning the ball over. This year we actually have a QB CONTROVERSY in Alabama between Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett. Bateman played in about 5 games last year including the ill-famed Ole Miss game where he started for some odd reason. He didn't look very good when I watched him, and it was obvious why Coker got the job. Barnett is a red-shirt freshman so we don't really know what he is yet. Either way, QB play has rarely mattered at Alabama because...
They produce RB after RB after RB who can put up massive yardage and carry the team. Last year it was Derrick Henry and his 2200+ on the ground with 28 TDs. Next up off the RB Factory assembly line is sophomore Bo Scarbrough, a guy with that braided hair coming out of the back of his helmet which reminds you of every Alabama RB you've seen punish defenses since Eddie Lacy. At times I think Alabama just raises RBs from birth in an enclave somewhere, and they are presented in pairs to Nick Saban at the age of 12 to battle for his amusement. The winner gets a scholarship and a starting shot on the team in 7 years. Nick eats the loser whole. It's like Beyond Thunderdome but with more crimson and southern accents.
I'll mention the WR's only because I get to talk about one of my favorite players in all of college football, Calvin Ridley. The now sophomore receiver put up massive numbers in his freshman campaign with 1045 yards, 7 TDs, and a long of 81 yards. He was a deep threat to end all deep threats. If you haven't seen film on the kid, go check it out because you'll immediately see why he's the best receiver right now in the league in my mind. He's Julio Jones level of NFL style talent. If he's not a top 10 Draft guy by the end of his career assuming he stays healthy, I'll be shocked. Oh and on top of that, Alabama still has #2 WR Ardarius Stewart and steady TE hand OJ Howard to provide a safety valve for the QB who wins the job. I love the receiving core on this team.
The Alabama offensive line is one of the biggest strengths of the team year to year. Here's the problem for 2016: Alabama lost their center Ryan Kelly to the draft. That means a guy named Ross Pierschbacher was supposed to move to the center slot. But suddenly in the last week Alabama announced that Ross is move to RG instead of center, and taking the snaps now was Bradley Bozeman who is a redshirt junior, while Ross was a redshirt sophomore. The move confused everyone, and of course Alabama isn't saying why they suddenly changed. But mark my words, this is a HUGE deal. Suddenly changing not only your QB but also your center, and then switching centers about a week before your first game? That's a big pressure on the offensive unit to perform with a brand new RB.
On defense it should be complete turmoil when a team loses 5 starters and their coordinator to a head coaching job. At Alabama, nobody cares. Next man up is a very real thing on this unit, and I don't expect the Tide to have any fall-off whatsoever. The one thing you are used to at Alabama is size. This year I think you will see a lot of speed to go with that size. One of the leaders LB Tim Williams will provide some pop. The secondary should be terrifying with guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick, who had two interceptions in the Texas A&M game, and leader Cyrus Jones playing cornerback opposite Marlon Humphrey. You may remember me picking on Humphrey a lot last year (deservedly) so we'll see if he's improved his play in 2016. If he has, that secondary should be the best in the nation.
But what about the defensive line? They will be fine there as well. Johnathon Allen decided to return for another year instead of hitting the NFL draft, so he'll anchor that line at defensive end and do his best to sack the QB. He'll share the duties on the line with returner Dalvin Tomlinson, Da'Shawn Hand, and now sophomore Daron Payne. They have a guy named Payne on the line. That kind of says it all doesn't it?
Overall, why in the world would you pick against Alabama to win the West even when they replace a bunch of their key pieces? They've proven time and again that they can reload with the best of them, and that defense will always keep them in games. Yes, they have some offensive questions. Yes, they are changing QB. I fully expect them to look very mundane early in the season as they work some stuff out. But if Bo Scarbrough is half of what he's hyped to be, the Crimson Tide will be just fine in 2016, and they will turn on the jets late in the season like they usually do.
ALABAMA PREDICTION: 11-1
Alabama is the big bully on the block, and whoever wants to win the SEC is going through them first. Last season, Jake Coker did an admirable job at QB while throwing for over 3100 yards and 21 TDs. He also threw 8 picks, which an Alabama QB under Nick Saban is NOT supposed to do. The Tide usually pride themselves in not turning the ball over. This year we actually have a QB CONTROVERSY in Alabama between Cooper Bateman and Blake Barnett. Bateman played in about 5 games last year including the ill-famed Ole Miss game where he started for some odd reason. He didn't look very good when I watched him, and it was obvious why Coker got the job. Barnett is a red-shirt freshman so we don't really know what he is yet. Either way, QB play has rarely mattered at Alabama because...
They produce RB after RB after RB who can put up massive yardage and carry the team. Last year it was Derrick Henry and his 2200+ on the ground with 28 TDs. Next up off the RB Factory assembly line is sophomore Bo Scarbrough, a guy with that braided hair coming out of the back of his helmet which reminds you of every Alabama RB you've seen punish defenses since Eddie Lacy. At times I think Alabama just raises RBs from birth in an enclave somewhere, and they are presented in pairs to Nick Saban at the age of 12 to battle for his amusement. The winner gets a scholarship and a starting shot on the team in 7 years. Nick eats the loser whole. It's like Beyond Thunderdome but with more crimson and southern accents.
I'll mention the WR's only because I get to talk about one of my favorite players in all of college football, Calvin Ridley. The now sophomore receiver put up massive numbers in his freshman campaign with 1045 yards, 7 TDs, and a long of 81 yards. He was a deep threat to end all deep threats. If you haven't seen film on the kid, go check it out because you'll immediately see why he's the best receiver right now in the league in my mind. He's Julio Jones level of NFL style talent. If he's not a top 10 Draft guy by the end of his career assuming he stays healthy, I'll be shocked. Oh and on top of that, Alabama still has #2 WR Ardarius Stewart and steady TE hand OJ Howard to provide a safety valve for the QB who wins the job. I love the receiving core on this team.
The Alabama offensive line is one of the biggest strengths of the team year to year. Here's the problem for 2016: Alabama lost their center Ryan Kelly to the draft. That means a guy named Ross Pierschbacher was supposed to move to the center slot. But suddenly in the last week Alabama announced that Ross is move to RG instead of center, and taking the snaps now was Bradley Bozeman who is a redshirt junior, while Ross was a redshirt sophomore. The move confused everyone, and of course Alabama isn't saying why they suddenly changed. But mark my words, this is a HUGE deal. Suddenly changing not only your QB but also your center, and then switching centers about a week before your first game? That's a big pressure on the offensive unit to perform with a brand new RB.
On defense it should be complete turmoil when a team loses 5 starters and their coordinator to a head coaching job. At Alabama, nobody cares. Next man up is a very real thing on this unit, and I don't expect the Tide to have any fall-off whatsoever. The one thing you are used to at Alabama is size. This year I think you will see a lot of speed to go with that size. One of the leaders LB Tim Williams will provide some pop. The secondary should be terrifying with guys like Minkah Fitzpatrick, who had two interceptions in the Texas A&M game, and leader Cyrus Jones playing cornerback opposite Marlon Humphrey. You may remember me picking on Humphrey a lot last year (deservedly) so we'll see if he's improved his play in 2016. If he has, that secondary should be the best in the nation.
But what about the defensive line? They will be fine there as well. Johnathon Allen decided to return for another year instead of hitting the NFL draft, so he'll anchor that line at defensive end and do his best to sack the QB. He'll share the duties on the line with returner Dalvin Tomlinson, Da'Shawn Hand, and now sophomore Daron Payne. They have a guy named Payne on the line. That kind of says it all doesn't it?
Overall, why in the world would you pick against Alabama to win the West even when they replace a bunch of their key pieces? They've proven time and again that they can reload with the best of them, and that defense will always keep them in games. Yes, they have some offensive questions. Yes, they are changing QB. I fully expect them to look very mundane early in the season as they work some stuff out. But if Bo Scarbrough is half of what he's hyped to be, the Crimson Tide will be just fine in 2016, and they will turn on the jets late in the season like they usually do.
ALABAMA PREDICTION: 11-1
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Florida SEC College Football 2016 Preview
Florida won the SEC East by default last year. I have absolutely no love for the Gators, but that doesn't stop me from respecting the product they put on the field. For years under Will Muschamp, the Gators were a joke. Enter new head coach Jim McElwain, and suddenly the Gators win 10 games and the SEC East title. Did they stumble down the stretch? Yes, and losing your first string QB to suspension will do that. When Will Grier departed the team, he took all the scoring with him. If Treon Harris was slated to start again, I'd say the Gators were doomed.
But Treon Harris won't start. Instead, Luke Del Rio will get the starting nod for Florida as the QB. Now, Will Grier was the better thrower than Del Rio supposedly, and just as supposedly Del Rio is the better decision maker. Coaches love a great decision maker, fans love a great arm. Somewhere in the middle you usually get a decent QB to run an offense. And I think we will have to see if Luke is actually an upgrade over Grier in the decision-making department if the Gators gets in long down situations that require passing. Because defenses at that point will know what's coming, and your decisions are less of a factor than fitting it in tight windows.
The Florida offense did have one big advantage beyond Will Grier saving the season before his suspension, and that was Kelvin Taylor in the running game. Taylor had 1000+ yards with 4.0 per carry, which was good only because he was carrying the ball so often. A guy in college who has 4.0 per carry isn't going to finish very high on the top RB lists, but when you do it 250 times I start to notice. Also, Taylor had 13 TDs which is very impressive. Did they come in big games? 2 against Georgia, 2 against Tennessee, and 2 against Missouri. That's basically the Florida competition for the East so I'd say yes.
HOWEVER, Kelvin Taylor went to the NFL. Uh oh. That means essentially five guys are now competing for the top job, Jordan Scarlett, Jordan Cronkrite, Mark Herndon, Mark Thompson, and young recruit Lamical Perine. While fans have been buzzing around Perine, he would have to surpas the other guys as the youngest member of the team to grab carries. However, Jim McIlwain has shown he really doesn't place much credence in seniority over talent. So, perhaps the young kid can usurp the throne, which shouldn't be hard because both Jordans don't really impress me, Herndon had almost no snaps last year, and Thompson is a JUCO transfer. The job is wide open in my mind.
Wide Receivers last season were the Antonio Callaway and Demarcus Robinson show, along with TE Jake McGee. Callaway is still around, and that's a good thing because Robinson and McGee both went to the NFL. That means WR Brandon Powell and TE DeAndre Goolsby need to step up their games in expectation of more targets along with Callaway. I think having experienced receivers will really help the transition for QB Del Rio, because he's going to need guys you can use as a safety valve when the blitz packages get hot. That means your receivers need to recognize when to cut off routes early to avoid getting the QB killed. An experienced guy can do that, a green receiver just keeps running.
Florida's offensive line was wretched last year. I mean awful. They allowed 45 sacks which was absolutely 128th dead last in CFB. The worst stat amongst any team from Alabama to New Mexico State. That seems impossible for a team that won the East in 2015, but it happened. Remember default? Yeah they won by default. Will the line be better in 2016? It's impossible to get worse in sacks at least. And most of them are coming back, so the only thing you can really say is, "Hey they are more experienced!" That's not great if you lack skills to get the job done. I don't expect this to be a strength for the Gators.
The defense will be a strength. Good night, the defense from last year was amazing. 40 sacks which had them 5th in the nation. 11th in the nation in points against, 25th against the run, and 13th against the pass. Florida kept themselves in games long after the offense woes should have put them out of it. But the Gators lost 5 defensive starters, and they will need to find replacements from the front line to the secondary. My guess is that LB Jarrad Davis will be the guy to watch this season, as I think he'll become a bigtime leader on this defense. He needs to be instrumental in both the passing and rushing defenses, and if he doesn't finish the year with the most tackles on the team, I'll be surprised.
The Gators need to fill some holes, but I think the bones of this team are still in place to be successful in the East. In the West they'd be another punching bag while they figure out the offense, but in the East they can survive a decided easy early schedule while they move their chess pieces around. Florida's first three games are UMASS, Kentucky, and North Texas. It doesn't get easier than that in the SEC. Then, they have a tough game at Tenneseee before an easy Vandy win, then LSU and Mizzou at home before the neutral match against Georgia. Every time Florida has a hard opponent, they have at least one week against a weak team to prepare. Things are there again for the taking with their top tier defense, and if the QB lives up to billing Florida will be a team to contend with in the East again.
FLORIDA PREDICTION: 9-3
But Treon Harris won't start. Instead, Luke Del Rio will get the starting nod for Florida as the QB. Now, Will Grier was the better thrower than Del Rio supposedly, and just as supposedly Del Rio is the better decision maker. Coaches love a great decision maker, fans love a great arm. Somewhere in the middle you usually get a decent QB to run an offense. And I think we will have to see if Luke is actually an upgrade over Grier in the decision-making department if the Gators gets in long down situations that require passing. Because defenses at that point will know what's coming, and your decisions are less of a factor than fitting it in tight windows.
The Florida offense did have one big advantage beyond Will Grier saving the season before his suspension, and that was Kelvin Taylor in the running game. Taylor had 1000+ yards with 4.0 per carry, which was good only because he was carrying the ball so often. A guy in college who has 4.0 per carry isn't going to finish very high on the top RB lists, but when you do it 250 times I start to notice. Also, Taylor had 13 TDs which is very impressive. Did they come in big games? 2 against Georgia, 2 against Tennessee, and 2 against Missouri. That's basically the Florida competition for the East so I'd say yes.
HOWEVER, Kelvin Taylor went to the NFL. Uh oh. That means essentially five guys are now competing for the top job, Jordan Scarlett, Jordan Cronkrite, Mark Herndon, Mark Thompson, and young recruit Lamical Perine. While fans have been buzzing around Perine, he would have to surpas the other guys as the youngest member of the team to grab carries. However, Jim McIlwain has shown he really doesn't place much credence in seniority over talent. So, perhaps the young kid can usurp the throne, which shouldn't be hard because both Jordans don't really impress me, Herndon had almost no snaps last year, and Thompson is a JUCO transfer. The job is wide open in my mind.
Wide Receivers last season were the Antonio Callaway and Demarcus Robinson show, along with TE Jake McGee. Callaway is still around, and that's a good thing because Robinson and McGee both went to the NFL. That means WR Brandon Powell and TE DeAndre Goolsby need to step up their games in expectation of more targets along with Callaway. I think having experienced receivers will really help the transition for QB Del Rio, because he's going to need guys you can use as a safety valve when the blitz packages get hot. That means your receivers need to recognize when to cut off routes early to avoid getting the QB killed. An experienced guy can do that, a green receiver just keeps running.
Florida's offensive line was wretched last year. I mean awful. They allowed 45 sacks which was absolutely 128th dead last in CFB. The worst stat amongst any team from Alabama to New Mexico State. That seems impossible for a team that won the East in 2015, but it happened. Remember default? Yeah they won by default. Will the line be better in 2016? It's impossible to get worse in sacks at least. And most of them are coming back, so the only thing you can really say is, "Hey they are more experienced!" That's not great if you lack skills to get the job done. I don't expect this to be a strength for the Gators.
The defense will be a strength. Good night, the defense from last year was amazing. 40 sacks which had them 5th in the nation. 11th in the nation in points against, 25th against the run, and 13th against the pass. Florida kept themselves in games long after the offense woes should have put them out of it. But the Gators lost 5 defensive starters, and they will need to find replacements from the front line to the secondary. My guess is that LB Jarrad Davis will be the guy to watch this season, as I think he'll become a bigtime leader on this defense. He needs to be instrumental in both the passing and rushing defenses, and if he doesn't finish the year with the most tackles on the team, I'll be surprised.
The Gators need to fill some holes, but I think the bones of this team are still in place to be successful in the East. In the West they'd be another punching bag while they figure out the offense, but in the East they can survive a decided easy early schedule while they move their chess pieces around. Florida's first three games are UMASS, Kentucky, and North Texas. It doesn't get easier than that in the SEC. Then, they have a tough game at Tenneseee before an easy Vandy win, then LSU and Mizzou at home before the neutral match against Georgia. Every time Florida has a hard opponent, they have at least one week against a weak team to prepare. Things are there again for the taking with their top tier defense, and if the QB lives up to billing Florida will be a team to contend with in the East again.
FLORIDA PREDICTION: 9-3
Ole Miss SEC College Football 2016 Preview
We're down to the final three teams in my preview series, and today is the only team in the nation to best Alabama last year, the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss shocked the world early on in the season with their win over the Tide, cementing their slot as the SEC West champ if they could just avoid 2 losses. But in the end, they did lose three really awful games to Florida, Memphis of all people, and then the dagger heartbreaker that cost them the SEC title, an OT loss to Arkansas late.
Chad Kelly was the best QB in the SEC last year, and he returns for his final year to hopefully lead Ole Miss to their first SEC title in forever. Chad was a 65% passer last year with over 4000 yards and 31 TDs to 13 picks. The picks were way too high, but whatever he's a gunslinger in that offense. From the tape I watched of Kelly, the things that jumped out to me was that he makes solid reads, he can scramble with his eyes down the field, and he's got a cannon for an arm that can put it to any part of the field. If he has a great season this year, Kelly will cement himself as a top 10 NFL QB pick in my mind going into next year's draft.
Here's the bad news. Laquon Treadwell, one of the best WRs last year in the SEC if not THE best WR isn't walking through that door. He's sitting pretty in the NFL playing for the Vikings. That means his over 1100 receiving yards and 11 receiver TDs have to go somebody else. Will that be secondary WR Cody Core who had 600+ yards last year? Nope, he's been drafted by the Bengals. Will it be Quincy Adeboyejo, who had 600+ yards and 7 TDs last year? My guess is yes, Quincy will join Damore'ea Stringfellow as the top two receivers on the team, and the hardest to spell full name tandem in the SEC. But again, nobody can fully replace Treadwell here. The fans should expect some falloff from his prolific totals.
Did Ole Miss even use a RB last year? I can barely remember them running it much at all. Turns out Chad Kelly ran for 500 yards (I wouldn't have guessed anywhere close to that) and also 10 rushing TDs. How the hell did this guy score 41 combined TDs and lose the Heisman? Oh that's right, if you lose games, you don't count. I hate that trophy and its absurd voters. But that's a side note, Ole Miss actually does have some running backs, although they are mostly new. Akeem Judd will have a shot at the primary carry load as he got 77 carries and 421 yards last year. If you're yawning, you should be because that's not much. Also, there's young spring star Eric Swinney that's been really getting the hype train going after an injury last season, but we honestly don't know if he can weather an SEC storm. I'd expect to see both and let the hot hand win, but let's get real about something. This is Chad Kelly's offense. If Ole Miss is running the ball much it's because they are up 25 points.
Ole Miss's offensive line could be a boon or a disaster. I say that because they were average last year even with good players like Laramie Tunsil getting suspended for half the year. But all five bowl starters have departed that line, which opens a door for them to either get better or fail miserably. According to coach Hugh Freeze, offensive line is one of his biggest concerns. That's not good in the SEC. Javon Patterson and Jordan Simms will likely get shots again at the guard positions, while Robert Conyers returns off injury likely at the center. That's good because Conyers is familiar with making the calls. The real issue will be the tackles, one of which will replace the star Tunsil. And if you know anything about high level passing attacks like Ole Miss, the tackles are the most important linemen out there keeping the defensive ends off the QB in pass protection. I'd be concerned if I was Freeze too.
On defense, Robert Nkemdiche is gone which means he won't be causing the same level of havoc Ole Miss fans saw in 2015 off the line. That means junior Marquis Haynes will have to step his game this and take over or Nkemdiche in terms of getting to the QB. DeMarquis Gates returns at LB and he will have to be a star tackler in this defense to makes up for the loss of Nkemdiche as well. However, Ole Miss was terrible against the pass last year ranking 105th in the nation, which means that they are losing a great pass rusher, and putting more pressure on a secondary that didn't perform well. I would expect those secondary players to improve this year, but they will have to do it quickly as Ole Miss faces FSU right off the bat.
Overall, the biggest problem for Ole Miss is that they lost their best WR, their best pass rusher and defensive lineman, and most of their offensive line. The fact they return their QB is good, but the QB isn't the entire team, and there's plenty of questions here not only at the skill positions but also about Ole Miss' impending NCAA investigations. We have no idea if the NCAA will do anything, but it's another potential Sword of Damocles hanging over their head. In my mind, Ole Miss would have to overcome a lot of odds this year to be last man standing in the SEC West, even if Alabama has some struggles.
OLE MISS PREDICTION: 8-4
Chad Kelly was the best QB in the SEC last year, and he returns for his final year to hopefully lead Ole Miss to their first SEC title in forever. Chad was a 65% passer last year with over 4000 yards and 31 TDs to 13 picks. The picks were way too high, but whatever he's a gunslinger in that offense. From the tape I watched of Kelly, the things that jumped out to me was that he makes solid reads, he can scramble with his eyes down the field, and he's got a cannon for an arm that can put it to any part of the field. If he has a great season this year, Kelly will cement himself as a top 10 NFL QB pick in my mind going into next year's draft.
Here's the bad news. Laquon Treadwell, one of the best WRs last year in the SEC if not THE best WR isn't walking through that door. He's sitting pretty in the NFL playing for the Vikings. That means his over 1100 receiving yards and 11 receiver TDs have to go somebody else. Will that be secondary WR Cody Core who had 600+ yards last year? Nope, he's been drafted by the Bengals. Will it be Quincy Adeboyejo, who had 600+ yards and 7 TDs last year? My guess is yes, Quincy will join Damore'ea Stringfellow as the top two receivers on the team, and the hardest to spell full name tandem in the SEC. But again, nobody can fully replace Treadwell here. The fans should expect some falloff from his prolific totals.
Did Ole Miss even use a RB last year? I can barely remember them running it much at all. Turns out Chad Kelly ran for 500 yards (I wouldn't have guessed anywhere close to that) and also 10 rushing TDs. How the hell did this guy score 41 combined TDs and lose the Heisman? Oh that's right, if you lose games, you don't count. I hate that trophy and its absurd voters. But that's a side note, Ole Miss actually does have some running backs, although they are mostly new. Akeem Judd will have a shot at the primary carry load as he got 77 carries and 421 yards last year. If you're yawning, you should be because that's not much. Also, there's young spring star Eric Swinney that's been really getting the hype train going after an injury last season, but we honestly don't know if he can weather an SEC storm. I'd expect to see both and let the hot hand win, but let's get real about something. This is Chad Kelly's offense. If Ole Miss is running the ball much it's because they are up 25 points.
Ole Miss's offensive line could be a boon or a disaster. I say that because they were average last year even with good players like Laramie Tunsil getting suspended for half the year. But all five bowl starters have departed that line, which opens a door for them to either get better or fail miserably. According to coach Hugh Freeze, offensive line is one of his biggest concerns. That's not good in the SEC. Javon Patterson and Jordan Simms will likely get shots again at the guard positions, while Robert Conyers returns off injury likely at the center. That's good because Conyers is familiar with making the calls. The real issue will be the tackles, one of which will replace the star Tunsil. And if you know anything about high level passing attacks like Ole Miss, the tackles are the most important linemen out there keeping the defensive ends off the QB in pass protection. I'd be concerned if I was Freeze too.
On defense, Robert Nkemdiche is gone which means he won't be causing the same level of havoc Ole Miss fans saw in 2015 off the line. That means junior Marquis Haynes will have to step his game this and take over or Nkemdiche in terms of getting to the QB. DeMarquis Gates returns at LB and he will have to be a star tackler in this defense to makes up for the loss of Nkemdiche as well. However, Ole Miss was terrible against the pass last year ranking 105th in the nation, which means that they are losing a great pass rusher, and putting more pressure on a secondary that didn't perform well. I would expect those secondary players to improve this year, but they will have to do it quickly as Ole Miss faces FSU right off the bat.
Overall, the biggest problem for Ole Miss is that they lost their best WR, their best pass rusher and defensive lineman, and most of their offensive line. The fact they return their QB is good, but the QB isn't the entire team, and there's plenty of questions here not only at the skill positions but also about Ole Miss' impending NCAA investigations. We have no idea if the NCAA will do anything, but it's another potential Sword of Damocles hanging over their head. In my mind, Ole Miss would have to overcome a lot of odds this year to be last man standing in the SEC West, even if Alabama has some struggles.
OLE MISS PREDICTION: 8-4
Monday, August 29, 2016
Tennessee SEC Football 2016 Preview
Here's the favorite for the SEC East, the Volunteers of Tennessee. Nobody else in the East is returning their Quarterback and Running-back tandem. Nobody else in the SEC East is ranked in the top 10. Nobody else is really being given any consideration to win the SEC East as a favorite except Tennessee. They have gone from the hunters to the hunted in the East, and it's time to see if they have what it takes to complete their mission. After all, brick by brick stops this year. The bricks are in place, now we see if the wall can stand up against an onslaught of attacks.
Joshua "Space" Dobbs returns as the senior leader of the Tennessee offense at QB, meaning Tennessee is the only team in the East not facing a QB CONTROVERSY at all. Dobbs is the guy, no matter what this year. And if you look at Dobbs you'll notice a couple of things. First, he's pretty careful with the football as a rule. In his entire 3-year career at Tennessee he's only thrown 17 interceptions in 642 attempts, which is a pick about every 38 tosses. That's good, but not outstanding because Dobbs only threw 26 TDs to go along with those interception numbers. But Dobbs can also run so you can't discount his 20 TDs on the ground, and his over 1300 yards rushing in his career.
Dobbs is very much a dual-threat guy, but my issue with his play is that the arm part of his threat is mostly average. Look at Dobbs numbers and you see a guy with 4000+ passing yards over 3 seasons. That's fine and dandy in today's college football. But then you dig deeper and you see a guy with less than 7.0 yards per attempt last season. That would be around 70th amongst passing teams in CFB. Then you watch the game film, and you see a guy who was mostly making passes within his own 10 yard box, while taking off running before he got to his second reads.
The question for Dobbs in my mind is can he be more effective going from read to read, and can he beat people in the intermediate passing game? Because almost any QB can go from read one to a checkdown. That's easy and Dobbs did that a lot. The question is can you go from read one to read two, and then to a checkdown, and then to a run, and do it all in less than 4 seconds? The run for most QBs who want to stay upright should be 4th on the list. With Dobbs ability it's likely 2nd or 3rd, which means that other defenses will key on it. And if they key on it and have the power to stop his aspect of the running game with a spy (think teams like Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama) then Dobbs is in for a long day.
But he won't be out there on his own in the running game, he'll have returning starting RB Jalen Hurd who rushed for 1288 yards last year with 12 TDs. The numbers look good on paper, and Hurd is a solid RB who will get very little consideration due to the glut of outstanding RBs in the SEC. The issue I have with Hurd and I'll continue to have with him if he doesn't improve is that his yards per carry (4.7) isn't that great compared to some of the other premiere backs in the SEC. He needs a lot of touches to really get going as he wears defenses down. Also, he's a bit of a stat-stuffer in the yards department. When Hurd faced the tougher SEC teams (Georgia, Florida, Alabama) his yards per carry dropped off to 4.1, and he only had 274 yards in those 3 games. Consequently Tennessee lost two of them. Also, I don't think Tennessee uses Hurd enough out of the backfield as a receiving option. He had 22 catches in the enter 2015 season, and I would expect more targets to keep defenses confused on little RB screens.
The other real threat that I think should get more touches in the Tennessee offense is RB Alvin Kamara, who comes off a season where he had almost 700 yards and 6.5 yards a carry with 7 TDs. I know that Hurd is the workhorse, but Kamara is the home run hitter of the RB group. In two different games he busted 50+ runs, even though he got most of his work against inferior opponents. Against Georgia, Florida, and Alabama, Kamara only got 17 carries combined for 45 yards. I get that you want to try different things and put the effort on Hurd, but in general they were relying way to much on Dobbs in those efforts and not enough on their running backs. Part of that is because the defense put them in holes, and part of it is simply because I don't think Tennessee trusted Kamara as much in big games. Maybe that will change this season.
WRs will be a problem, and likely the only real problem for the Vols on offense. Von Pearson? Gone. Marquez North? Gone. That means it's up to Josh Malone, Josh Smith, and TE Ethan Wolf to possibly lead the receiver core in 2016. And will there be a 3rd WR out there? Most likely yes, and most likely it will be one of the young freshman who will be pressed into service because Jauan Jennings is dealing with a knee injury from April. So you might see guys named Preston Williams, Tyler Byrd, or Marquez Callaway. And honestly, there's no reason to believe that those guys can't do the job, because Dobbs does NOT target just one receiver. It's very much a system play on who gets the ball.
Tennessee's offensive line play should be excellent as they return 4 of their main starters, including their center Coleman Thomas, along with some great backups that will help them maneuver in fresh pieces as needed after long drives. That's good news for Dobbs since he likes to run, and even better news for Hurd as he should post even more yardage in a down defensive year in the East outside of Florida.
Speaking of defense, Tennessee's unit last year was also excellent, holding teams to 20 points per game, and finishing 17th ranked in the nation. The Vols will be bringing in a new DC this year in Bob Shoop out of Penn State, which means there could be a shakeup in the system most Vol fans are used to. I would expect a defense that looks a little more blitz happy on first down, trying to force teams into bad situations early according to most reports. I would also expect that players like Cam Sutton and Derek Barnett would love the new style, as it would give them opportunities to be more aggressive inside the scheme.
Overall, there's a reason that Tennessee is ranked highest in the East. They return a solid if not dynamic dual-threat QB, a dependable RB, and potentially, explosive RB, some decent receivers, almost the entire offensive line, and an attacking defense. What's not to like? If you ask Vol fans, it should be the defining season of Head Coach Butch Jones' career. If you ask me, I think they'll be very good as well. Because let's remember, the SEC East has kinda sucked for a long time now.
But good enough to beat a very talented Florida or Georgia team AND Alabama team in the same season? I'm not so sure. And unfortunately if they drop games to Florida and Alabama they will have to hope Florida loses 3 games to avoid the tiebreaker. But outside of those games, and on the road at Georgia, and let's not forget A&M in their make or break year, who Tennessee faces on the road. the rest of the schedule sets up really easily for the Vols to run the table. I'd say 50/50 they lose to either Georgia or Florida, A&M would be a tough tough win, and I don't think they have the horses to beat Alabama yet.
TENNESSEE PREDICTION: 9-3
Joshua "Space" Dobbs returns as the senior leader of the Tennessee offense at QB, meaning Tennessee is the only team in the East not facing a QB CONTROVERSY at all. Dobbs is the guy, no matter what this year. And if you look at Dobbs you'll notice a couple of things. First, he's pretty careful with the football as a rule. In his entire 3-year career at Tennessee he's only thrown 17 interceptions in 642 attempts, which is a pick about every 38 tosses. That's good, but not outstanding because Dobbs only threw 26 TDs to go along with those interception numbers. But Dobbs can also run so you can't discount his 20 TDs on the ground, and his over 1300 yards rushing in his career.
Dobbs is very much a dual-threat guy, but my issue with his play is that the arm part of his threat is mostly average. Look at Dobbs numbers and you see a guy with 4000+ passing yards over 3 seasons. That's fine and dandy in today's college football. But then you dig deeper and you see a guy with less than 7.0 yards per attempt last season. That would be around 70th amongst passing teams in CFB. Then you watch the game film, and you see a guy who was mostly making passes within his own 10 yard box, while taking off running before he got to his second reads.
The question for Dobbs in my mind is can he be more effective going from read to read, and can he beat people in the intermediate passing game? Because almost any QB can go from read one to a checkdown. That's easy and Dobbs did that a lot. The question is can you go from read one to read two, and then to a checkdown, and then to a run, and do it all in less than 4 seconds? The run for most QBs who want to stay upright should be 4th on the list. With Dobbs ability it's likely 2nd or 3rd, which means that other defenses will key on it. And if they key on it and have the power to stop his aspect of the running game with a spy (think teams like Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama) then Dobbs is in for a long day.
But he won't be out there on his own in the running game, he'll have returning starting RB Jalen Hurd who rushed for 1288 yards last year with 12 TDs. The numbers look good on paper, and Hurd is a solid RB who will get very little consideration due to the glut of outstanding RBs in the SEC. The issue I have with Hurd and I'll continue to have with him if he doesn't improve is that his yards per carry (4.7) isn't that great compared to some of the other premiere backs in the SEC. He needs a lot of touches to really get going as he wears defenses down. Also, he's a bit of a stat-stuffer in the yards department. When Hurd faced the tougher SEC teams (Georgia, Florida, Alabama) his yards per carry dropped off to 4.1, and he only had 274 yards in those 3 games. Consequently Tennessee lost two of them. Also, I don't think Tennessee uses Hurd enough out of the backfield as a receiving option. He had 22 catches in the enter 2015 season, and I would expect more targets to keep defenses confused on little RB screens.
The other real threat that I think should get more touches in the Tennessee offense is RB Alvin Kamara, who comes off a season where he had almost 700 yards and 6.5 yards a carry with 7 TDs. I know that Hurd is the workhorse, but Kamara is the home run hitter of the RB group. In two different games he busted 50+ runs, even though he got most of his work against inferior opponents. Against Georgia, Florida, and Alabama, Kamara only got 17 carries combined for 45 yards. I get that you want to try different things and put the effort on Hurd, but in general they were relying way to much on Dobbs in those efforts and not enough on their running backs. Part of that is because the defense put them in holes, and part of it is simply because I don't think Tennessee trusted Kamara as much in big games. Maybe that will change this season.
WRs will be a problem, and likely the only real problem for the Vols on offense. Von Pearson? Gone. Marquez North? Gone. That means it's up to Josh Malone, Josh Smith, and TE Ethan Wolf to possibly lead the receiver core in 2016. And will there be a 3rd WR out there? Most likely yes, and most likely it will be one of the young freshman who will be pressed into service because Jauan Jennings is dealing with a knee injury from April. So you might see guys named Preston Williams, Tyler Byrd, or Marquez Callaway. And honestly, there's no reason to believe that those guys can't do the job, because Dobbs does NOT target just one receiver. It's very much a system play on who gets the ball.
Tennessee's offensive line play should be excellent as they return 4 of their main starters, including their center Coleman Thomas, along with some great backups that will help them maneuver in fresh pieces as needed after long drives. That's good news for Dobbs since he likes to run, and even better news for Hurd as he should post even more yardage in a down defensive year in the East outside of Florida.
Speaking of defense, Tennessee's unit last year was also excellent, holding teams to 20 points per game, and finishing 17th ranked in the nation. The Vols will be bringing in a new DC this year in Bob Shoop out of Penn State, which means there could be a shakeup in the system most Vol fans are used to. I would expect a defense that looks a little more blitz happy on first down, trying to force teams into bad situations early according to most reports. I would also expect that players like Cam Sutton and Derek Barnett would love the new style, as it would give them opportunities to be more aggressive inside the scheme.
Overall, there's a reason that Tennessee is ranked highest in the East. They return a solid if not dynamic dual-threat QB, a dependable RB, and potentially, explosive RB, some decent receivers, almost the entire offensive line, and an attacking defense. What's not to like? If you ask Vol fans, it should be the defining season of Head Coach Butch Jones' career. If you ask me, I think they'll be very good as well. Because let's remember, the SEC East has kinda sucked for a long time now.
But good enough to beat a very talented Florida or Georgia team AND Alabama team in the same season? I'm not so sure. And unfortunately if they drop games to Florida and Alabama they will have to hope Florida loses 3 games to avoid the tiebreaker. But outside of those games, and on the road at Georgia, and let's not forget A&M in their make or break year, who Tennessee faces on the road. the rest of the schedule sets up really easily for the Vols to run the table. I'd say 50/50 they lose to either Georgia or Florida, A&M would be a tough tough win, and I don't think they have the horses to beat Alabama yet.
TENNESSEE PREDICTION: 9-3
Sunday, August 28, 2016
Arkansas SEC Football 2016 Preview
Pig Sooie to all my Hogs fans out there, it's your turn on my 2016 preview list. One of the things I've always respected about the Arkansas program is that despite your mascot being porcine, your offensive and defensive lines usually pack a lot of beef up front.
I think Arkansas had a sometimes good, but overall underwhelming season for fans based on projections. Arkansas went 8-5 finishing outside the top 25 rankings, even though they were projected as a #18 team in the 2015 preseason lists. There were three major things that went wrong for Arkansas last year.
1 - They lost games early in the year to Toledo, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M because they couldn't figure out their offense.
2 - When they did figure out their offense, they lost complete control of their defense and lost a game to Mississippi State 51-50.
3 - Their kicking game was AWFUL. Absolutely awful. Their FG kicker last year only made 60% of his kicks, which totally made the coaches lose confidence in the kicking game.
The good news? Once the Arkansas offense got rolling it was amazing. QB Brandon Allen had 3500+ yards, 30 TDs, and only 8 picks. If those sound like NFL numbers, they were because Allen went to the NFL to play for the Jaguars. Arkansas also had running back Alex Collins amass 1500+ yards on the ground, 5.8 yards a carry, and 20 TDs. Unfortunately he's also gone to the NFL to play for the Seahawks in 2016. So with that loss of talent, will anybody be able to step in for Arkansas and lead this offense in an even better direction?
Arkansas was the 2nd best scoring offense in the SEC last year. There's only one spot left to conquer, and to do that, they'll have to rely on another Allen to lead the way. That's right, Austin Allen is slated to take over as the starting QB, and he just happens to be the younger brother of the exiting starter Brandon Allen from last year. Will the new Allen be as good if not better than the elder Allen? Honestly, nobody knows because Austin Allen has had less than 20 attempts in his college career so far. But if he's 80% of what his brother was, he'll be better than most Arkansas QBs in a decade or more.
At running back, the questions loom a little larger. Due to the nature of the Arkansas offensive lines, being a running back at that school comes with the assumption that you will have some good years. In fact, I think fans get tired of hearing how big the line is on TV, and just want to hear about something else. I would expect that Senior Kody Walker will get the lion's share of the carries this year, as he was a change of pace guy behind Collins in 2015, amassing almost 400 yards in 6 TDs. But there was also now Sophomore Rawleigh Williams who got almost 4.5 a carry on 50-something carries last year as well. It could be a seniority situation or a hot-hand situation, but I expect it to be tougher sledding this year because...
The Razorbacks lost 3 starters on the offensive line to NFL or graduation, and their O-Line coach Sam Pittman to the Georgia Bulldogs staff. That means returning starters RT Dan Skipper, and RG Frank Ragnow will have to anchor the unit while Ragnow moves to Center. That's an issue for a lot of reasons. First, new center means new calls, new snaps, and new guys learning the positions. Anytime you change a center, that raises warning flags for me. Second, it means both guards will be new, and that's not a huge problem for a passing team, but for a running team that makes hay up the middle any change there can be a huge issue. And I expect Arkansas to rely mostly on their running attack as they break in a new QB.
In the WR department Drew Morgan, Hunter Henry, and Dominque Reed were part of a 3-headed monster that totaled 2100 receiving yards and 19 TDs between themselves. The only one that's gone is Hunter Henry was he went to the NFL to play for the Charges. Morgan and Reed will be seniors, and that should work well for the new QB as he'll have prime weapons on the outside as targets is the game gets tough up the middle.
Defensively Arkansas was a disaster last year. It cost them at least 3 games and should have cost them a couple more that to OT with huge scores. Arkansas was every bit as bad as South Carolina last year, but their offense just bailed them out on the scoreboard in the second half of the season. The pass rush has to get better in 2016 or Arkansas will have the exact same issues. And honestly, not much is changing on that defense as they return 8 of the 11 starters. So if you're expecting a better team, it's going to have to come through coaching rather than turnover. Honestly, I don't expect this year to be a step forward for Arkansas as they work through their defensive issues, and they have massive turnover on the offense. Add in a tough road schedule, and I think they barely get bowl eligible.
ARKANSAS PREDICTION: 6-6
I think Arkansas had a sometimes good, but overall underwhelming season for fans based on projections. Arkansas went 8-5 finishing outside the top 25 rankings, even though they were projected as a #18 team in the 2015 preseason lists. There were three major things that went wrong for Arkansas last year.
1 - They lost games early in the year to Toledo, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M because they couldn't figure out their offense.
2 - When they did figure out their offense, they lost complete control of their defense and lost a game to Mississippi State 51-50.
3 - Their kicking game was AWFUL. Absolutely awful. Their FG kicker last year only made 60% of his kicks, which totally made the coaches lose confidence in the kicking game.
The good news? Once the Arkansas offense got rolling it was amazing. QB Brandon Allen had 3500+ yards, 30 TDs, and only 8 picks. If those sound like NFL numbers, they were because Allen went to the NFL to play for the Jaguars. Arkansas also had running back Alex Collins amass 1500+ yards on the ground, 5.8 yards a carry, and 20 TDs. Unfortunately he's also gone to the NFL to play for the Seahawks in 2016. So with that loss of talent, will anybody be able to step in for Arkansas and lead this offense in an even better direction?
Arkansas was the 2nd best scoring offense in the SEC last year. There's only one spot left to conquer, and to do that, they'll have to rely on another Allen to lead the way. That's right, Austin Allen is slated to take over as the starting QB, and he just happens to be the younger brother of the exiting starter Brandon Allen from last year. Will the new Allen be as good if not better than the elder Allen? Honestly, nobody knows because Austin Allen has had less than 20 attempts in his college career so far. But if he's 80% of what his brother was, he'll be better than most Arkansas QBs in a decade or more.
At running back, the questions loom a little larger. Due to the nature of the Arkansas offensive lines, being a running back at that school comes with the assumption that you will have some good years. In fact, I think fans get tired of hearing how big the line is on TV, and just want to hear about something else. I would expect that Senior Kody Walker will get the lion's share of the carries this year, as he was a change of pace guy behind Collins in 2015, amassing almost 400 yards in 6 TDs. But there was also now Sophomore Rawleigh Williams who got almost 4.5 a carry on 50-something carries last year as well. It could be a seniority situation or a hot-hand situation, but I expect it to be tougher sledding this year because...
The Razorbacks lost 3 starters on the offensive line to NFL or graduation, and their O-Line coach Sam Pittman to the Georgia Bulldogs staff. That means returning starters RT Dan Skipper, and RG Frank Ragnow will have to anchor the unit while Ragnow moves to Center. That's an issue for a lot of reasons. First, new center means new calls, new snaps, and new guys learning the positions. Anytime you change a center, that raises warning flags for me. Second, it means both guards will be new, and that's not a huge problem for a passing team, but for a running team that makes hay up the middle any change there can be a huge issue. And I expect Arkansas to rely mostly on their running attack as they break in a new QB.
In the WR department Drew Morgan, Hunter Henry, and Dominque Reed were part of a 3-headed monster that totaled 2100 receiving yards and 19 TDs between themselves. The only one that's gone is Hunter Henry was he went to the NFL to play for the Charges. Morgan and Reed will be seniors, and that should work well for the new QB as he'll have prime weapons on the outside as targets is the game gets tough up the middle.
Defensively Arkansas was a disaster last year. It cost them at least 3 games and should have cost them a couple more that to OT with huge scores. Arkansas was every bit as bad as South Carolina last year, but their offense just bailed them out on the scoreboard in the second half of the season. The pass rush has to get better in 2016 or Arkansas will have the exact same issues. And honestly, not much is changing on that defense as they return 8 of the 11 starters. So if you're expecting a better team, it's going to have to come through coaching rather than turnover. Honestly, I don't expect this year to be a step forward for Arkansas as they work through their defensive issues, and they have massive turnover on the offense. Add in a tough road schedule, and I think they barely get bowl eligible.
ARKANSAS PREDICTION: 6-6
Thursday, August 25, 2016
Georgia SEC College Football 2016 Preview
Now comes the article most of my followers wanted to see, the Georgia football preview and prediction. I warn you in advance, I'm a fan of this team, but I'm also unlikely to let that bias affect my gambling. There were times that I've bet against Georgia when the metrics called for it and I won. There were times where it called for it and I lost. But if the facts bear out that Georgia isn't going to win an average game against another opponent, I will be the first person to tell you why. Just so you don't think I'm one-sided I've taken Georgia before and won and lost as well. I'm just saying I don't bet the home team simply because I'm a fan.
That being said, welcome to one of the biggest QB CONTROVERSIES of the year with this program. In one corner you have the weighed, measured, and found wanting version of Greyson Lambert aka the Safe Senior. In the other corner you have the young, dumb, and has a big gun version of Jacob Eason aka The Freshman Phenom. Whether you are on Team Greyson or Team Eason doesn't really matter because ultimately it's Kirby Smart's decision as the new head coach of the Dawgs, but I will lay out a case for why both could be a good choice, and then what I think will actually happen.
We know what Greyson Lambert is, and for the most part the fans don't like it. Hell, even the coaches didn't like it when they benched him for the Florida game in favor of Faton Bauta. Consequently that lack of faith got coach Richt fired. He was afraid to put the game in the hands of Lambert, which I think was a mistake. Why? Because Lambert was coming off bad games against Missouri (one of the best defenses in the league), a loss against Alabama (where he admittedly was awful), and a loss to Tennessee (where Lambert was actually the hero in that game but a dropped pass in the end zone made him the goat). But that shouldn't have made Richt suddenly gamble in the deciding game of his career.
Now some of you are saying WHAT? LAMBERT HAD A TERRIBLE TENNESEEE GAME! RABBLE RABBLE! You're wrong. Sorry, but you are. The defense had a terrible Tennessee game. Lambert pulled that game out of the fire when Georgia lost Chubb early, and he had 2 TDs passing to go with 279 yards. Was him completion rate good? No, it was an awful 47%. Still, Georgia had 31 points in that game, and they lost. The defense hung him out to dry, and our WRs hung him out even worse with dropped passes. The case for Lambert is he's unlikely to turn it over, he is likely to perform well enough against teams like UNC and Nicholls State, and he can get you 200 yards passing if need be. He's the safe choice while you let Chubb do his thing.
Eason on the other hand will be raw. Eason will throw interceptions that make the fans wonder what the hell he was thinking. But Eason can win you games almost by himself. Eason has an arm and accuracy that can shred a defense that's checking up to the line to stop Nick Chubb. And if Eason can back that defense off to the 15 yard line marker because they are afraid of getting beat over the top? Nick Chubb will be facing a 7 man box or less and he'll eat that alive. It'll be glorious if it's all going right. The balanced attack of hit them in the mouth, and then take the top off the defense is the vintage move of an Alabama team that's won several championships. Just look at a guy like WR Calvin Ridley's highlight reel over in Tuscaloosa. They would smash you with Derrick Henry and then burn you with Ridley. That's the offense Kirby Smart wants to see at UGA.
So what do I think will happen? I think Kirby would be a fool not to start Lambert. You need the settled QB who isn't going to get spooked by the big crowd and bright lights of the Georgia Dome opener. You need a guy who isn't going to make a mistake and then try to throw his way out of it by making another mistake. Eason likely takes over against Nicholls State, and then Kirby decides how much of a dual threat he wants to take against Ole Miss. My guess is we don't have a set starter until after Tennessee. I think Kirby plays both guys until October based on how much running game he wants to include in the gameplan. That of course goes by the wayside if Eason lights it up immediately and takes over the job, but I don't see that happening. The SEC is a harsh mistress for young boys. She wears leather and smokes cigarettes in front of your parents.
Luckily, either QB will have an amazing set of weapons to hand off to this season. Nick Chubb will be ready to go for game one against UNC. Sony Michel likely won't be ready until at least Ole Miss or Tennessee at the earliest. Maybe longer if there are any set backs. Oh, and then there's new kid Elijah Holyfield, son of Evander Holyfield, who is ready to run the rock if necessary. But I will say this about Chubb, if he's good to go at full speed the only way the rest of the guys get the ball is when he's too tired from making 10 yard runs and you need a change of pace. The dude is a beast. Before Chubb was injured he was averaging 8.1 yards a carry. You read that right. That's insane to a level I haven't seen in college football in a long time. His long was 83 yards for a TD. And he's trying to come back this year off a knee injury where he's healing in almost 9 months. Dude is a freak, in a good way.
Sony Michel is no slouch either. 1161 yards with a paltry 5.3 yards a carry compared to Chubb. And the funny part is that on half the other SEC teams Michel would be the flat out #1. At Georgia he's not fully respected by the fans because he's dwarfed by Chubb. But if Michel is good to go as well, it's a 1-2 punch that will give teams tons of troubled, followed by perhaps an uppercut by Holyfield. That's a boxing joke, kids.
But what about the receivers? That was a huge problem last year outside of Malcolm Mitchell, and he's graduated to the NFL. Terry Godwin is still around and will likely play a big part in the passing game, but he'll have plenty of competition for field time. Tall receivers like Riley Ridley, Michael Chigbu, Jayson Stanley, and Javon Wims will all want to get out there and grab passes from Lambert or Eason. That being said, everyone except Wims is a sophomore or younger, and Javon Wims is a junior transfer. The wide receivers are extremely young, and I'm not sure how a young QB is going to do with a bunch of young receivers. Maybe it all works out well, but that lack of experience can sometimes cause massive problems when guys make mistakes.
The offensive line will now be coached by former Arkansas O-line coach Sam Pittman, and while he's been recruiting to get a bigger, faster, badder line we're still a couple of years away from that coming to fruition with the recruits. Last year, Georgia's offensive line was something of a disappointment. They were manhandled by bigger, tougher defensive teams like Alabama, Missouri, and Florida. Experienced transfer from Rhode Island, Tyler Catalina has come to Georgia to fill in along with returning starters Greg Pyke and Brandon Kublanow. They'll have to replace both tackles John Theus and Kolton Houston. Honestly though, I don't think the loss of Theus or Houston will be a big deal. Pyke and Catalina will likely move to tackle, and Kublanow will stay as the senior center. The question will be which of the junior guards move into positions, or if the young freshman recruits beat them out for starting time. Sam Pittman will not play favorites to seniority out there, I can assure you.
How about defense. I'll be honest with you, this is the part of the game that scares the crap out of me. The Georgia defense was great on paper last year. 8th overall in CFB in points against, #1 in the nation in passing defense, and #7 in the nation in total defense. Honestly, they sound like World Beaters when you list off those stats. And yet, fans that watched the games know different. You know why Georgia was top ten in those stats? Because they played in the SEC East, 3 cupcake teams, and GA Tech. None of those teams can pass their way out of a paper bag. Louisiana Monroe had the 2nd best passing stats against Georgia, behind Alabama. Where did Georgia get nailed? They were 42nd in the nation in run defense. That's a huge problem since most good SEC teams right now are run first.
The problem (or solution depending on how you look at it) is that Georgia loses almost all of it's defensive line and linebacker talent from 2015. It keeps basically the entire secondary, which is good because they did a great job in pass protection last season for the most part (don't look at the Alabama or Tennessee tapes). Kirby Smart has his work cut out for him defensively trying to figure out how to apply a new pass rush and run stopper defense against some of the toughest teams in the SEC. Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida will all pose massive run/pass threats to this defense, and if they lack balance it will be a huge problem trying to get into a shootout. After all, Georgia would be happy to slow the game down on offense with the running backs, burn clock, and minimize the time the defense is on the field. If younger units on defense are forced into long drives, it usually ends in disaster.
Also, Georgia will have to fight what I call the RANKED TEAM UH-OHS. What do I mean by that? Well, if you're Georgia fan you know exactly what that means, but if not I'll explain. Georgia defenses had the bad habit of completely wetting themselves in big games against ranked opponents. If you look at the 2015 stats, Georgia gave up 16.9 points a game in all games. Versus ranked teams they gave up 34.3 points. Sounds a little different doesn't it? Suddenly that world beater defense looks toothless. That big of a difference is simply mentality and toughness. Bar none. Even skilled players shouldn't have a split that big from ranked to unranked opponents. And that's why Kirby Smart is the new head coach of this team. He's here to change that mentality and make sure the players they recruited play like the stars they were given when they got off the bus.
But let's get real about the schedule is this year. There's 4 ranked teams on the schedule right now, and even if the Dawgs go 2-2 in those 4 games (which would be BIG) they would still have to rely on an East tiebreaker if it's the wrong set of teams they lose to. Also, they would have to run the table against opponents like South Carolina on the road which has been historically a disaster, Auburn at home which is always weird, plus Kentucky, Missouri, and Georgia Tech. It's tough when you don't even know which QB you're going to play, or who is going to anchor any of the up front defensive positions. I think it's a good showing for Kirby, but I don't think we're looking at a team that's going to win the East this season. However, I think it sets up well to win it all in 2017-18. I call this the Atlanta Braves plan.
GEORGIA PREDICTION: 9-3
That being said, welcome to one of the biggest QB CONTROVERSIES of the year with this program. In one corner you have the weighed, measured, and found wanting version of Greyson Lambert aka the Safe Senior. In the other corner you have the young, dumb, and has a big gun version of Jacob Eason aka The Freshman Phenom. Whether you are on Team Greyson or Team Eason doesn't really matter because ultimately it's Kirby Smart's decision as the new head coach of the Dawgs, but I will lay out a case for why both could be a good choice, and then what I think will actually happen.
We know what Greyson Lambert is, and for the most part the fans don't like it. Hell, even the coaches didn't like it when they benched him for the Florida game in favor of Faton Bauta. Consequently that lack of faith got coach Richt fired. He was afraid to put the game in the hands of Lambert, which I think was a mistake. Why? Because Lambert was coming off bad games against Missouri (one of the best defenses in the league), a loss against Alabama (where he admittedly was awful), and a loss to Tennessee (where Lambert was actually the hero in that game but a dropped pass in the end zone made him the goat). But that shouldn't have made Richt suddenly gamble in the deciding game of his career.
Now some of you are saying WHAT? LAMBERT HAD A TERRIBLE TENNESEEE GAME! RABBLE RABBLE! You're wrong. Sorry, but you are. The defense had a terrible Tennessee game. Lambert pulled that game out of the fire when Georgia lost Chubb early, and he had 2 TDs passing to go with 279 yards. Was him completion rate good? No, it was an awful 47%. Still, Georgia had 31 points in that game, and they lost. The defense hung him out to dry, and our WRs hung him out even worse with dropped passes. The case for Lambert is he's unlikely to turn it over, he is likely to perform well enough against teams like UNC and Nicholls State, and he can get you 200 yards passing if need be. He's the safe choice while you let Chubb do his thing.
Eason on the other hand will be raw. Eason will throw interceptions that make the fans wonder what the hell he was thinking. But Eason can win you games almost by himself. Eason has an arm and accuracy that can shred a defense that's checking up to the line to stop Nick Chubb. And if Eason can back that defense off to the 15 yard line marker because they are afraid of getting beat over the top? Nick Chubb will be facing a 7 man box or less and he'll eat that alive. It'll be glorious if it's all going right. The balanced attack of hit them in the mouth, and then take the top off the defense is the vintage move of an Alabama team that's won several championships. Just look at a guy like WR Calvin Ridley's highlight reel over in Tuscaloosa. They would smash you with Derrick Henry and then burn you with Ridley. That's the offense Kirby Smart wants to see at UGA.
So what do I think will happen? I think Kirby would be a fool not to start Lambert. You need the settled QB who isn't going to get spooked by the big crowd and bright lights of the Georgia Dome opener. You need a guy who isn't going to make a mistake and then try to throw his way out of it by making another mistake. Eason likely takes over against Nicholls State, and then Kirby decides how much of a dual threat he wants to take against Ole Miss. My guess is we don't have a set starter until after Tennessee. I think Kirby plays both guys until October based on how much running game he wants to include in the gameplan. That of course goes by the wayside if Eason lights it up immediately and takes over the job, but I don't see that happening. The SEC is a harsh mistress for young boys. She wears leather and smokes cigarettes in front of your parents.
Luckily, either QB will have an amazing set of weapons to hand off to this season. Nick Chubb will be ready to go for game one against UNC. Sony Michel likely won't be ready until at least Ole Miss or Tennessee at the earliest. Maybe longer if there are any set backs. Oh, and then there's new kid Elijah Holyfield, son of Evander Holyfield, who is ready to run the rock if necessary. But I will say this about Chubb, if he's good to go at full speed the only way the rest of the guys get the ball is when he's too tired from making 10 yard runs and you need a change of pace. The dude is a beast. Before Chubb was injured he was averaging 8.1 yards a carry. You read that right. That's insane to a level I haven't seen in college football in a long time. His long was 83 yards for a TD. And he's trying to come back this year off a knee injury where he's healing in almost 9 months. Dude is a freak, in a good way.
Sony Michel is no slouch either. 1161 yards with a paltry 5.3 yards a carry compared to Chubb. And the funny part is that on half the other SEC teams Michel would be the flat out #1. At Georgia he's not fully respected by the fans because he's dwarfed by Chubb. But if Michel is good to go as well, it's a 1-2 punch that will give teams tons of troubled, followed by perhaps an uppercut by Holyfield. That's a boxing joke, kids.
But what about the receivers? That was a huge problem last year outside of Malcolm Mitchell, and he's graduated to the NFL. Terry Godwin is still around and will likely play a big part in the passing game, but he'll have plenty of competition for field time. Tall receivers like Riley Ridley, Michael Chigbu, Jayson Stanley, and Javon Wims will all want to get out there and grab passes from Lambert or Eason. That being said, everyone except Wims is a sophomore or younger, and Javon Wims is a junior transfer. The wide receivers are extremely young, and I'm not sure how a young QB is going to do with a bunch of young receivers. Maybe it all works out well, but that lack of experience can sometimes cause massive problems when guys make mistakes.
The offensive line will now be coached by former Arkansas O-line coach Sam Pittman, and while he's been recruiting to get a bigger, faster, badder line we're still a couple of years away from that coming to fruition with the recruits. Last year, Georgia's offensive line was something of a disappointment. They were manhandled by bigger, tougher defensive teams like Alabama, Missouri, and Florida. Experienced transfer from Rhode Island, Tyler Catalina has come to Georgia to fill in along with returning starters Greg Pyke and Brandon Kublanow. They'll have to replace both tackles John Theus and Kolton Houston. Honestly though, I don't think the loss of Theus or Houston will be a big deal. Pyke and Catalina will likely move to tackle, and Kublanow will stay as the senior center. The question will be which of the junior guards move into positions, or if the young freshman recruits beat them out for starting time. Sam Pittman will not play favorites to seniority out there, I can assure you.
How about defense. I'll be honest with you, this is the part of the game that scares the crap out of me. The Georgia defense was great on paper last year. 8th overall in CFB in points against, #1 in the nation in passing defense, and #7 in the nation in total defense. Honestly, they sound like World Beaters when you list off those stats. And yet, fans that watched the games know different. You know why Georgia was top ten in those stats? Because they played in the SEC East, 3 cupcake teams, and GA Tech. None of those teams can pass their way out of a paper bag. Louisiana Monroe had the 2nd best passing stats against Georgia, behind Alabama. Where did Georgia get nailed? They were 42nd in the nation in run defense. That's a huge problem since most good SEC teams right now are run first.
The problem (or solution depending on how you look at it) is that Georgia loses almost all of it's defensive line and linebacker talent from 2015. It keeps basically the entire secondary, which is good because they did a great job in pass protection last season for the most part (don't look at the Alabama or Tennessee tapes). Kirby Smart has his work cut out for him defensively trying to figure out how to apply a new pass rush and run stopper defense against some of the toughest teams in the SEC. Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida will all pose massive run/pass threats to this defense, and if they lack balance it will be a huge problem trying to get into a shootout. After all, Georgia would be happy to slow the game down on offense with the running backs, burn clock, and minimize the time the defense is on the field. If younger units on defense are forced into long drives, it usually ends in disaster.
Also, Georgia will have to fight what I call the RANKED TEAM UH-OHS. What do I mean by that? Well, if you're Georgia fan you know exactly what that means, but if not I'll explain. Georgia defenses had the bad habit of completely wetting themselves in big games against ranked opponents. If you look at the 2015 stats, Georgia gave up 16.9 points a game in all games. Versus ranked teams they gave up 34.3 points. Sounds a little different doesn't it? Suddenly that world beater defense looks toothless. That big of a difference is simply mentality and toughness. Bar none. Even skilled players shouldn't have a split that big from ranked to unranked opponents. And that's why Kirby Smart is the new head coach of this team. He's here to change that mentality and make sure the players they recruited play like the stars they were given when they got off the bus.
But let's get real about the schedule is this year. There's 4 ranked teams on the schedule right now, and even if the Dawgs go 2-2 in those 4 games (which would be BIG) they would still have to rely on an East tiebreaker if it's the wrong set of teams they lose to. Also, they would have to run the table against opponents like South Carolina on the road which has been historically a disaster, Auburn at home which is always weird, plus Kentucky, Missouri, and Georgia Tech. It's tough when you don't even know which QB you're going to play, or who is going to anchor any of the up front defensive positions. I think it's a good showing for Kirby, but I don't think we're looking at a team that's going to win the East this season. However, I think it sets up well to win it all in 2017-18. I call this the Atlanta Braves plan.
GEORGIA PREDICTION: 9-3
LSU SEC College Football 2016 Preview
We've gone through 7 of the worst teams in 2015 over the last few days, and now we're over the hump. It's time to start talking about SEC teams that may factor into the 2016 SEC championship. We open with powerhouse running team, powerhouse defensive team, and somehow completely absentee QB team: LSU!
There is no QB controversy yet in LSU, the guy that gets the nod this year is Brandon Harris. You may remember Harris from last season as he was the guy responsible for LSU getting crushed in their 3 toughest games against Bama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Harris had 4 picks in those 3 games, and only 3 TD passes. His completion percentage against Alabama was around 31%. He actually flung it for over 300 yards against Ole Miss, but the defense absolutely let him down in that game, so I wouldn't hold him as accountable in that one if it weren't for the 2 interceptions.
Outside of those 3 losses, Harris was asked to do almost nothing in about half of their wins. In 4 of the 9 games that LSU won, Harris had less than 100 yards passing. That seems impossible in today's pass happy offensive schemes around the league, but the SEC has an always will be a run-first league whether it be by the QB option or by straight hand in the dirt RB pounding. Harris had his best games against Western Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. Those 3 games encompassed 8 of his 13 TDs on the year. So he was doing some stat-padding against the SEC East and a crap opponent on the schedule. One of the most damning things to me about Harris was that his completion rate inside the opponents 40 yard line was barely above 40% on the year. That means in your top scoring zones, Harris was really suffering as the defenses tightened up.
Now, if LSU lacked a running game, I'd say that too much would be put on Harris and a college QB can't expect to have great completion numbers if teams are playing in coverages where they are expecting pass and don't respect the run. But if you've heard anything about a guy named Leonard Fournette, one of the most touted RBs in the SEC, you know that LSU has a phenomenal running game. Harris should have been MUCH better than he was, because teams were having to constantly stack the box to stop Fournette. Meaning they would have to put their corners and safeties on single-man coverages, which a half-decent QB would have picked apart. This tells me that Harris isn't even half-decent, and I don't expect him to suddenly learn in Year 3 of his starting career. After all, give me two years to look at you, and a full year of starting, and I can tell what you are as a QB.
Back to Fournette though, if you haven't heard about this kid you likely don't have cable or the internet. Which means you're not reading this blog. So I assume when I say his name, you see that highlight video of him shedding off Auburn tacklers like a swimmer shakes off wet towels. Except a team of wet towels would probably have a better defense than Auburn last year. Anyway, Fournette ran for about 50 yards shy of 2000 yards, 6.5 yard a carry, and 22 TDs. That still wasn't good enough for a Heisman because his team lost 3 games, and he had only 31 rushing yards against Alabama, and 91 against Arkansas. You can't do that in losses and expect to win the #1 player trophy in college ball.
That doesn't mean Fournette will fall off this year. If anything I hope he's listening to the criticism that he was a stat-padder against crap teams, and wilted the second he faced a defense with any teeth. And by the way, that's a completely fair criticism of Fournette. He looked like a world beater at the beginning of the season, but in the last 4 games of the regular season he only had 3 TDs while his yards per carry were cut down by at least a third if not more in certain games.
Part of Fournette's success is that LSU consistently has one of the best offensive lines in the country. This year they lose both of their tackles, but return all of the interior. That means one or two of the guards may switch over to tackle (that happens a lot) and some younger guys will fill in. Does that mean that Fournette will have less success behind this line? Probably not at all, if anything the interior of the line is one of the most important parts of any run blocking scheme. It's the tackles that are more important in the passing game since they are out on an island trying to block outside rushers from going inside. I expect LSU's line to make the transition easily because they are keeping their best asset, Center Ethan Pocic.
In the receiver department, LSU's top man last year was Malachi Dupre. Love the name by the way, it just sounds like a WR name. He'll return to the team as a junior with what I hope is even more targets by Brandon Harris. After all a good running team needs a deep threat that can take the cover off a defense, and Dupre has to be that guy. Malachi had longs in games of 55, 52, and 42, which is exactly what LSU needs as a change of pace from Fournette. In addition to Dupre will be receiver Travin Dural who ended up as the #2 receiver on the team by around 150 yards. Again, this passing game isn't going to be prolific. A leading receiver at LSU might get to 700 yards if he's lucky. The key is going to be the deep threat, because as I've said, defenses are going to have to cheat up on the field to protect against Fournette gashing them to death 8 yards at a time.
LSU's defense should be monster level good. They've changed defensive coordinators to a game named Dave Aranda out of Wisconsin, which is a hire praised around the SEC. I don't know the specifics of why Kevin Steele left as DC at LSU for DC at Auburn, and seemingly nobody else has much information on why he left either. Supposedly it was over retirement payments that the state of Alabama offers but Louisiana didn't. I think it's likely over the fact Les Miles was all but fired last year until the alumni stepped in and saved his job. Nobody wants to be an officer on a sinking ship. But hell, he's going to Auburn, which I can assure you is no safer a job with Malzahn at the helm sitting on a veritable hot-plate if he doesn't win this year.
Either way Aranda will inherit a defense that finished 41st in the nation in points against, 17th against the run, and 65th against the pass. As you can see, Aranda will have to come up with a better scheme for pass defense, because there's zero reason an LSU defense should finish that low. I think I know why there's such a dramatic split however. Every day the LSU defense sees and tries to contain Fournette in the running game, but they see crappy Brandon Harris in the passing game. Perhaps stronger practice partners made the defense stronger and vice versa. Perhaps not, and it's up to schemes. Aranda will have to find a way to fix that issue if LSU wants to win the SEC West this season, and I think LSU has a great shot. It depends on which games they lose and when, because I don't think they go undefeated.
LSU PREDICTION: 10-2
There is no QB controversy yet in LSU, the guy that gets the nod this year is Brandon Harris. You may remember Harris from last season as he was the guy responsible for LSU getting crushed in their 3 toughest games against Bama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Harris had 4 picks in those 3 games, and only 3 TD passes. His completion percentage against Alabama was around 31%. He actually flung it for over 300 yards against Ole Miss, but the defense absolutely let him down in that game, so I wouldn't hold him as accountable in that one if it weren't for the 2 interceptions.
Outside of those 3 losses, Harris was asked to do almost nothing in about half of their wins. In 4 of the 9 games that LSU won, Harris had less than 100 yards passing. That seems impossible in today's pass happy offensive schemes around the league, but the SEC has an always will be a run-first league whether it be by the QB option or by straight hand in the dirt RB pounding. Harris had his best games against Western Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. Those 3 games encompassed 8 of his 13 TDs on the year. So he was doing some stat-padding against the SEC East and a crap opponent on the schedule. One of the most damning things to me about Harris was that his completion rate inside the opponents 40 yard line was barely above 40% on the year. That means in your top scoring zones, Harris was really suffering as the defenses tightened up.
Now, if LSU lacked a running game, I'd say that too much would be put on Harris and a college QB can't expect to have great completion numbers if teams are playing in coverages where they are expecting pass and don't respect the run. But if you've heard anything about a guy named Leonard Fournette, one of the most touted RBs in the SEC, you know that LSU has a phenomenal running game. Harris should have been MUCH better than he was, because teams were having to constantly stack the box to stop Fournette. Meaning they would have to put their corners and safeties on single-man coverages, which a half-decent QB would have picked apart. This tells me that Harris isn't even half-decent, and I don't expect him to suddenly learn in Year 3 of his starting career. After all, give me two years to look at you, and a full year of starting, and I can tell what you are as a QB.
Back to Fournette though, if you haven't heard about this kid you likely don't have cable or the internet. Which means you're not reading this blog. So I assume when I say his name, you see that highlight video of him shedding off Auburn tacklers like a swimmer shakes off wet towels. Except a team of wet towels would probably have a better defense than Auburn last year. Anyway, Fournette ran for about 50 yards shy of 2000 yards, 6.5 yard a carry, and 22 TDs. That still wasn't good enough for a Heisman because his team lost 3 games, and he had only 31 rushing yards against Alabama, and 91 against Arkansas. You can't do that in losses and expect to win the #1 player trophy in college ball.
That doesn't mean Fournette will fall off this year. If anything I hope he's listening to the criticism that he was a stat-padder against crap teams, and wilted the second he faced a defense with any teeth. And by the way, that's a completely fair criticism of Fournette. He looked like a world beater at the beginning of the season, but in the last 4 games of the regular season he only had 3 TDs while his yards per carry were cut down by at least a third if not more in certain games.
Part of Fournette's success is that LSU consistently has one of the best offensive lines in the country. This year they lose both of their tackles, but return all of the interior. That means one or two of the guards may switch over to tackle (that happens a lot) and some younger guys will fill in. Does that mean that Fournette will have less success behind this line? Probably not at all, if anything the interior of the line is one of the most important parts of any run blocking scheme. It's the tackles that are more important in the passing game since they are out on an island trying to block outside rushers from going inside. I expect LSU's line to make the transition easily because they are keeping their best asset, Center Ethan Pocic.
In the receiver department, LSU's top man last year was Malachi Dupre. Love the name by the way, it just sounds like a WR name. He'll return to the team as a junior with what I hope is even more targets by Brandon Harris. After all a good running team needs a deep threat that can take the cover off a defense, and Dupre has to be that guy. Malachi had longs in games of 55, 52, and 42, which is exactly what LSU needs as a change of pace from Fournette. In addition to Dupre will be receiver Travin Dural who ended up as the #2 receiver on the team by around 150 yards. Again, this passing game isn't going to be prolific. A leading receiver at LSU might get to 700 yards if he's lucky. The key is going to be the deep threat, because as I've said, defenses are going to have to cheat up on the field to protect against Fournette gashing them to death 8 yards at a time.
LSU's defense should be monster level good. They've changed defensive coordinators to a game named Dave Aranda out of Wisconsin, which is a hire praised around the SEC. I don't know the specifics of why Kevin Steele left as DC at LSU for DC at Auburn, and seemingly nobody else has much information on why he left either. Supposedly it was over retirement payments that the state of Alabama offers but Louisiana didn't. I think it's likely over the fact Les Miles was all but fired last year until the alumni stepped in and saved his job. Nobody wants to be an officer on a sinking ship. But hell, he's going to Auburn, which I can assure you is no safer a job with Malzahn at the helm sitting on a veritable hot-plate if he doesn't win this year.
Either way Aranda will inherit a defense that finished 41st in the nation in points against, 17th against the run, and 65th against the pass. As you can see, Aranda will have to come up with a better scheme for pass defense, because there's zero reason an LSU defense should finish that low. I think I know why there's such a dramatic split however. Every day the LSU defense sees and tries to contain Fournette in the running game, but they see crappy Brandon Harris in the passing game. Perhaps stronger practice partners made the defense stronger and vice versa. Perhaps not, and it's up to schemes. Aranda will have to find a way to fix that issue if LSU wants to win the SEC West this season, and I think LSU has a great shot. It depends on which games they lose and when, because I don't think they go undefeated.
LSU PREDICTION: 10-2
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Vanderbilt SEC Football 2016 Preview
This will likely be the only time I reference Vanderbilt in-depth all season long, but like any other SEC program, there's money to be made on win bets for the over/under. As such, I'll break down their season (almost) as seriously as any other team. However, just know that good information on what Vandy might be this year isn't easy to find without scouring the corners of the internet best left to recruiting blogs and scholarship articles or IBM's Watson.
Vanderbilt's top QB Johnny McCrary transferred to Mercer this offseason. The fact there's a quarterback that transferred out of the SEC to Mercer rattles around in my brain like a metal screw in copper cup. I honestly don't know what motivated that particular move other than he sucked and was replaced by Kyle Shurmer in the latter half of the season. Still, Mercer? I mean I've played sports at a Texas high school with a bigger following than Mercer football. What the hell league are they in, the Sunshine conference? Hold please. Ok, I looked it up, they play in the Southern Conference with teams like VMI and The Citadel. Don't sleep on The Citadel, they beat South Carolina last season. Then again, who didn't? Oh that's right, UNC didn't somehow. That's a veiled shot since I'm a UGA grad.
Where was I? Oh right I'm previewing Vanderbilt. I doubt any of you are actually reading this but in case you are, the QB for Vandy this year will likely be Kyle Shurmer in my estimation, who had 503 yards passing and 5 TDs last year in limited games. Also, 3 picks but who's counting. It was fewer picks than McCrary's 12 on the season. So, the now sophomore Shurmer will be tasked to lead a Vanderbilt offense that faces off against the entire SEC East, plus GA Tech, Ole Miss, and Auburn. It's a rough road. But there's still a small QB CONTROVERSY in Vanderbilt with a guy like Wade Freebeck, who didn't really get a shot last year but still remains on the Vandy roles and is in a competition with Shurmer. In my mind he loses out, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention it. After all, you follow me for up to the date Vanderbilt information.
A possible high point for Vandy next year will be Ralph Webb, the junior out of Gainesville, FL who shunned the Gators in favor of life as a Commodore. Anybody who shuns the Gators is a good man in my book. But more impressively than that, Webb ran for 1152 yards last year with an average of 4+ per carry, and 5 TDs. Now, you'd expect some of that was against crap opponents to pad the stats, and you'd be right. Webb did have 155 of those yards against Middle Tennessee and 100+ against Kentucky. However, he put up two 100+ yard games against Tennessee and Florida as well, so he was no slouch in big moments. If not for some bad luck, he would have been instrumental in a Florida upset for the ages, but alas the Gators pulled that one out of the fire, only to get destroyed by basically everyone else ranked late in the season.
I'll skip the Vandy offensive line because nobody cares. Just know that they suck when compared to everybody else of size in the SEC, so it's not an asset for the team. If you're looking for receivers on Vandy, look no further than Trent Sherfield, who amassed 659 yards with an average of 12+ yards a catch. If that doesn't sound impressive, it's because it sort of isn't. At best he's a deep play threat if the young QB can get enough time, but as I pointed out before this line won't give him much of that, and a QB with only 6 games of experience (with the toughest teams he faced Tennessee and A&M & he got shellacked in both) I'm not expecting a powerful passing game out of the Commodores this year. They will have to rely on rushing and defense.
And defense will be what holds this team together if anything. Vanderbilt has several top-tier defensive pieces like LB Zach Cunningham and Safety Oren Burks, along with defensive Tackles Adam Butler and Torey Agee. All of those player return to form a defense that should continue to wreck havoc on the opposing team's running game. Vandy was 33rd against the run last year in CFB, which is damned impressive for a team that lost 8 games. They were also in the top 50 in passing defense, and 22nd in point allowed.
You'd think that a team with 22nd in points allowed couldn't POSSIBLY lose 8 games and miss a bowl, but the offense was 124th in the nation. There are only 128 teams. Yeah. There's bad and then there's Vanderbilt bad. If it's any consolation Mizzou was worse, somehow. Wonder why the SEC East gets no respect still? Mizzou, South Carolina, Vandy, and Kentucky last year didn't help the situation. That and watching UGA and Tennessee poop their pants in big games. Florida won the division while scoring around 15 points a game in their last 5 games, including the bowl. It was the very definition of winning by default. Ugh.
Will Vandy be better this year? Honestly, it's hard to get worse, and yet somehow that might actually happen. The offensive line isn't going to improve, Webb will certainly get keyed on as the key threat in the offense, and they are really breaking in a new QB in a much tougher schedule with much improved SEC East teams. They won 4 games last year, narrowly missing some upsets. Honestly, I think they take a step back this year.
VANDERBILT PREDICTION: 3-9
Vanderbilt's top QB Johnny McCrary transferred to Mercer this offseason. The fact there's a quarterback that transferred out of the SEC to Mercer rattles around in my brain like a metal screw in copper cup. I honestly don't know what motivated that particular move other than he sucked and was replaced by Kyle Shurmer in the latter half of the season. Still, Mercer? I mean I've played sports at a Texas high school with a bigger following than Mercer football. What the hell league are they in, the Sunshine conference? Hold please. Ok, I looked it up, they play in the Southern Conference with teams like VMI and The Citadel. Don't sleep on The Citadel, they beat South Carolina last season. Then again, who didn't? Oh that's right, UNC didn't somehow. That's a veiled shot since I'm a UGA grad.
Where was I? Oh right I'm previewing Vanderbilt. I doubt any of you are actually reading this but in case you are, the QB for Vandy this year will likely be Kyle Shurmer in my estimation, who had 503 yards passing and 5 TDs last year in limited games. Also, 3 picks but who's counting. It was fewer picks than McCrary's 12 on the season. So, the now sophomore Shurmer will be tasked to lead a Vanderbilt offense that faces off against the entire SEC East, plus GA Tech, Ole Miss, and Auburn. It's a rough road. But there's still a small QB CONTROVERSY in Vanderbilt with a guy like Wade Freebeck, who didn't really get a shot last year but still remains on the Vandy roles and is in a competition with Shurmer. In my mind he loses out, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention it. After all, you follow me for up to the date Vanderbilt information.
A possible high point for Vandy next year will be Ralph Webb, the junior out of Gainesville, FL who shunned the Gators in favor of life as a Commodore. Anybody who shuns the Gators is a good man in my book. But more impressively than that, Webb ran for 1152 yards last year with an average of 4+ per carry, and 5 TDs. Now, you'd expect some of that was against crap opponents to pad the stats, and you'd be right. Webb did have 155 of those yards against Middle Tennessee and 100+ against Kentucky. However, he put up two 100+ yard games against Tennessee and Florida as well, so he was no slouch in big moments. If not for some bad luck, he would have been instrumental in a Florida upset for the ages, but alas the Gators pulled that one out of the fire, only to get destroyed by basically everyone else ranked late in the season.
I'll skip the Vandy offensive line because nobody cares. Just know that they suck when compared to everybody else of size in the SEC, so it's not an asset for the team. If you're looking for receivers on Vandy, look no further than Trent Sherfield, who amassed 659 yards with an average of 12+ yards a catch. If that doesn't sound impressive, it's because it sort of isn't. At best he's a deep play threat if the young QB can get enough time, but as I pointed out before this line won't give him much of that, and a QB with only 6 games of experience (with the toughest teams he faced Tennessee and A&M & he got shellacked in both) I'm not expecting a powerful passing game out of the Commodores this year. They will have to rely on rushing and defense.
And defense will be what holds this team together if anything. Vanderbilt has several top-tier defensive pieces like LB Zach Cunningham and Safety Oren Burks, along with defensive Tackles Adam Butler and Torey Agee. All of those player return to form a defense that should continue to wreck havoc on the opposing team's running game. Vandy was 33rd against the run last year in CFB, which is damned impressive for a team that lost 8 games. They were also in the top 50 in passing defense, and 22nd in point allowed.
You'd think that a team with 22nd in points allowed couldn't POSSIBLY lose 8 games and miss a bowl, but the offense was 124th in the nation. There are only 128 teams. Yeah. There's bad and then there's Vanderbilt bad. If it's any consolation Mizzou was worse, somehow. Wonder why the SEC East gets no respect still? Mizzou, South Carolina, Vandy, and Kentucky last year didn't help the situation. That and watching UGA and Tennessee poop their pants in big games. Florida won the division while scoring around 15 points a game in their last 5 games, including the bowl. It was the very definition of winning by default. Ugh.
Will Vandy be better this year? Honestly, it's hard to get worse, and yet somehow that might actually happen. The offensive line isn't going to improve, Webb will certainly get keyed on as the key threat in the offense, and they are really breaking in a new QB in a much tougher schedule with much improved SEC East teams. They won 4 games last year, narrowly missing some upsets. Honestly, I think they take a step back this year.
VANDERBILT PREDICTION: 3-9
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
Mississippi State SEC Football 2016 Preview
Dak Prescott is gone. Those words should fill every Mississippi State fan with a feeling of impending doom for the 2016 season. Because after all, Dak was the most successful QB in Mississippi State history. Bar none. There should be exactly zero argument from any of the fans. He finished with school records in yards, TDs, and completions. He also finished as the 3rd highest passing yardage QB in all of SEC history. That's an insane accomplishment for the young man, and it's a huge loss for the Bulldog program.
That being said, life goes on, and MS State will have to put a new man in charge of the offense. Remember the QB controversy? It's back after we skipped it in Kentucky, and in MS State it's back with a vengeance. Enter Nick Fitzgerald, Nick Tiano, and JUCO transfer Wyatt Roberts. Are any of them good? Honestly, nobody knows. Fitzgerald got some mop-up time in crap games, but that shouldn't give you any idea if he can actually perform. Wyatt Roberts was a 23 TD and 2 INT stud at the JUCO level, but that doesn't always translate. And Tiano is a redshirt with no reps to speak of. So, your guess is as good as mine, but based on what I know of coaches, it's really down to Roberts or Fitzgerald while Tiano waits his turn if both of them blow it. Either way, QB is a complete crapshoot this year.
Runningback is a little clearer in that it will be the pair of senior RBs Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert, along with change of pace back Aeris Williams. However, just because they are seniors doesn't mean I think they are very impressive. After all, Dak Prescott was also the lead rusher on this team last year by a long shot, so Holloway and Shumpert weren't exactly workhorses in the offense. Now? They'll likely have to produce a lot more yards then they did last year: 413 and 228 respectively. Wide Receiver is in a better place with slot guys Fred Ross and Malik Dear. Ross was the top target last year with 1000+ yards and I have no reason to believe he will get less targets in 2016. Look for him and Dear as the main options in an offense that will be looking to dink and dunk people to death with a new QB.
The offensive line returns 3 starters along with senior Center Jamaal Clayborn, so things should be in good hands there. Look for next year when those guys graduate as a real issue for replacements, especially on the right side of the line. On the defensive line, new coordinator Peter Sirmon will have to figure out how to make the returning defensive ends more effective in the pass rush. The returning ends only had 7.5 sacks spread amongst all of them last year, which isn't nearly enough to be effective in the rush these days. Also, MS State didn't force enough turnovers last year, and subsequently ended up 92nd in turnover margin in CFB. That's got to change in a West division where 3 of the other teams they play against were in the top 30 in that category.
Overall, MS State looks extremely mediocre to me on paper. I'm not impressed with their running game, I'm certainly not impressed with replacing Dak at QB, and their best WRs are slot guys. The defense doesn't produce much of a pass rush or get a ton of turnovers. If anything, MS State is the tapioca this year of the SEC West. I expect them to be extremely bland as they try to figure out life without Dak, which means they likely won't have a ton of on-field success.
MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION: 7-5
That being said, life goes on, and MS State will have to put a new man in charge of the offense. Remember the QB controversy? It's back after we skipped it in Kentucky, and in MS State it's back with a vengeance. Enter Nick Fitzgerald, Nick Tiano, and JUCO transfer Wyatt Roberts. Are any of them good? Honestly, nobody knows. Fitzgerald got some mop-up time in crap games, but that shouldn't give you any idea if he can actually perform. Wyatt Roberts was a 23 TD and 2 INT stud at the JUCO level, but that doesn't always translate. And Tiano is a redshirt with no reps to speak of. So, your guess is as good as mine, but based on what I know of coaches, it's really down to Roberts or Fitzgerald while Tiano waits his turn if both of them blow it. Either way, QB is a complete crapshoot this year.
Runningback is a little clearer in that it will be the pair of senior RBs Brandon Holloway and Ashton Shumpert, along with change of pace back Aeris Williams. However, just because they are seniors doesn't mean I think they are very impressive. After all, Dak Prescott was also the lead rusher on this team last year by a long shot, so Holloway and Shumpert weren't exactly workhorses in the offense. Now? They'll likely have to produce a lot more yards then they did last year: 413 and 228 respectively. Wide Receiver is in a better place with slot guys Fred Ross and Malik Dear. Ross was the top target last year with 1000+ yards and I have no reason to believe he will get less targets in 2016. Look for him and Dear as the main options in an offense that will be looking to dink and dunk people to death with a new QB.
The offensive line returns 3 starters along with senior Center Jamaal Clayborn, so things should be in good hands there. Look for next year when those guys graduate as a real issue for replacements, especially on the right side of the line. On the defensive line, new coordinator Peter Sirmon will have to figure out how to make the returning defensive ends more effective in the pass rush. The returning ends only had 7.5 sacks spread amongst all of them last year, which isn't nearly enough to be effective in the rush these days. Also, MS State didn't force enough turnovers last year, and subsequently ended up 92nd in turnover margin in CFB. That's got to change in a West division where 3 of the other teams they play against were in the top 30 in that category.
Overall, MS State looks extremely mediocre to me on paper. I'm not impressed with their running game, I'm certainly not impressed with replacing Dak at QB, and their best WRs are slot guys. The defense doesn't produce much of a pass rush or get a ton of turnovers. If anything, MS State is the tapioca this year of the SEC West. I expect them to be extremely bland as they try to figure out life without Dak, which means they likely won't have a ton of on-field success.
MISSISSIPPI STATE PREDICTION: 7-5
Monday, August 22, 2016
Kentucky SEC Football Preview 2016
Let's get the obligatory jokes about it not being basketball season out of the way early, shall we? I'm doing a football preview on Kentucky, which some of you will find interesting, and the rest of you might learn something for your betting book. Kentucky was a well below average team in 2015 that finished with a 5-7 record, and a 2-6 record in the SEC. The Wildcats haven't been to a bowl game since 2010, yet every year I hear about how things are improving from Kentucky fans. Let's see if they are right this year.
Kentucky's problem last year was very simple: They turned the ball over entirely too much. While their QB Patrick Towles had what I considered to be an impressive arm, he threw 14 interceptions on the season. If you're throwing more than 12, that's more than 1 per game, and that's baaaaaaaad. You better have 30 TDs to go with that, and he only had 9 on the season. So at the end of the year since Towles was such a turnover machine, the Kentucky coaching staff benched him for Drew Barker, who wasn't much better. Then, Towles decided to transfer to Boston College. Which I find hilarious because he transferred from a 5-7 SEC team to a 3-9 ACC team. That's like leaving Applebee's because you didn't like the food, and heading to Golden Corral. It's not a step up.
Go ahead and type "Kentucky quarterback" into Google, and one of your suggested choices will be "Kentucky quarterback fat" which will then lead you to Jared Lorenzen. This is apropos of nothing except that when you try to find information on the current Kentucky quarterback, Google will sideline you with tales of the Pillsbury Throwboy who hasn't taken a snap for the Wildcats since 2003. I think that says something about the current Kentucky quarterback situation that I honestly couldn't put into better words. You have to really dig to find any information about this program this year.
The actual Kentucky quarterback this season will be Drew Barker, and absolutely nobody should be excited about that. Head coach Mark Stoops named him the starter after spring practice, likely because of a lack of options. If you read more online, you can see that Alabama poached a top QB recruit from Kentucky for 2017, which again should shock nobody. If you have a choice between Alabama and Kentucky and you choose Kentucky in the current football climate, you need to be tested to make sure you're under some sort of mind-controlling super-drug developed by the Russians for Cold War soldiers. Because only they would choose something that bleak.
Barker played some snaps as the starter last season against Louisville and Charlotte. Yeah. So he's seen exactly ZERO teams from the SEC, and even against those rather mediocre clubs he still didn't throw a single TD. If Barker is the answer, I'll be thoroughly shocked. What is going to be an answer for Kentucky is their running game, led by Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp. I watched Jojo Kemp play over the last two years, and he's absolutely electric when he gets the ball in space, especially in games against South Carolina. Meanwhile Boom Williams had some injury issues that had him missing two games last season, but he finished with 855 yards on just 128 carries. That's over 7 yards a carry, which is frankly absurd. If Kentucky has any shot at doing well, it will be on these running-backs to get the job done along with their offensive line.
Speaking of the line, Kentucky returns four starters from a unit that helped those Kentucky running backs amass quite a few yards. The problem for them will be in pass protection against SEC defenses ready to eat a young QB alive. They'll have to rely on receivers like Dorian Baker and Garrett Johnson to provide Barker with targets, who did well last season catching passes from Towles. The line can only keep a young kid upright for a few seconds, and if Baker or Johnson can't find some space, it's going to be check-down-Charlie or duck-and-cover for Kentucky.
On defense, Kentucky was terrible last year, on par with teams like South Carolina and Auburn in points allowed. Stoops was quoted after recent practices complaining about his depth on defense at the Linebacker and Defensive line positions. That's a HUGE issue because Kentucky's only real hope to keep up with the talent at other higher recruited programs is to keep fresh legs on the field. If they can't rotate in and out effective line players, they have no advantages in a man-on-a-man scenario with 12 of the 14 teams in the SEC. Instead, they'll have to resort to ball-hawking, and that was a decent strategy last year as Kentucky forced 20 turnovers. The problem was their own team gave away 22. You can't be that careless with the ball and have a defensive unit this questionable.
Overall, Kentucky looks good on the run, good on the offensive line, good on receivers, and pretty much everything else has the potential to be a disaster. Kentucky could make a bowl game if Barker plays WAY better than I think he's capable of playing, and their defense continues to force other teams into bad decisions with the football. However, if I'm guessing, I think this is another slide back year for Kentucky given the schedule and their issues on defense.
KENTUCKY PREDICTION: 4-8
Kentucky's problem last year was very simple: They turned the ball over entirely too much. While their QB Patrick Towles had what I considered to be an impressive arm, he threw 14 interceptions on the season. If you're throwing more than 12, that's more than 1 per game, and that's baaaaaaaad. You better have 30 TDs to go with that, and he only had 9 on the season. So at the end of the year since Towles was such a turnover machine, the Kentucky coaching staff benched him for Drew Barker, who wasn't much better. Then, Towles decided to transfer to Boston College. Which I find hilarious because he transferred from a 5-7 SEC team to a 3-9 ACC team. That's like leaving Applebee's because you didn't like the food, and heading to Golden Corral. It's not a step up.
Go ahead and type "Kentucky quarterback" into Google, and one of your suggested choices will be "Kentucky quarterback fat" which will then lead you to Jared Lorenzen. This is apropos of nothing except that when you try to find information on the current Kentucky quarterback, Google will sideline you with tales of the Pillsbury Throwboy who hasn't taken a snap for the Wildcats since 2003. I think that says something about the current Kentucky quarterback situation that I honestly couldn't put into better words. You have to really dig to find any information about this program this year.
The actual Kentucky quarterback this season will be Drew Barker, and absolutely nobody should be excited about that. Head coach Mark Stoops named him the starter after spring practice, likely because of a lack of options. If you read more online, you can see that Alabama poached a top QB recruit from Kentucky for 2017, which again should shock nobody. If you have a choice between Alabama and Kentucky and you choose Kentucky in the current football climate, you need to be tested to make sure you're under some sort of mind-controlling super-drug developed by the Russians for Cold War soldiers. Because only they would choose something that bleak.
Barker played some snaps as the starter last season against Louisville and Charlotte. Yeah. So he's seen exactly ZERO teams from the SEC, and even against those rather mediocre clubs he still didn't throw a single TD. If Barker is the answer, I'll be thoroughly shocked. What is going to be an answer for Kentucky is their running game, led by Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp. I watched Jojo Kemp play over the last two years, and he's absolutely electric when he gets the ball in space, especially in games against South Carolina. Meanwhile Boom Williams had some injury issues that had him missing two games last season, but he finished with 855 yards on just 128 carries. That's over 7 yards a carry, which is frankly absurd. If Kentucky has any shot at doing well, it will be on these running-backs to get the job done along with their offensive line.
Speaking of the line, Kentucky returns four starters from a unit that helped those Kentucky running backs amass quite a few yards. The problem for them will be in pass protection against SEC defenses ready to eat a young QB alive. They'll have to rely on receivers like Dorian Baker and Garrett Johnson to provide Barker with targets, who did well last season catching passes from Towles. The line can only keep a young kid upright for a few seconds, and if Baker or Johnson can't find some space, it's going to be check-down-Charlie or duck-and-cover for Kentucky.
On defense, Kentucky was terrible last year, on par with teams like South Carolina and Auburn in points allowed. Stoops was quoted after recent practices complaining about his depth on defense at the Linebacker and Defensive line positions. That's a HUGE issue because Kentucky's only real hope to keep up with the talent at other higher recruited programs is to keep fresh legs on the field. If they can't rotate in and out effective line players, they have no advantages in a man-on-a-man scenario with 12 of the 14 teams in the SEC. Instead, they'll have to resort to ball-hawking, and that was a decent strategy last year as Kentucky forced 20 turnovers. The problem was their own team gave away 22. You can't be that careless with the ball and have a defensive unit this questionable.
Overall, Kentucky looks good on the run, good on the offensive line, good on receivers, and pretty much everything else has the potential to be a disaster. Kentucky could make a bowl game if Barker plays WAY better than I think he's capable of playing, and their defense continues to force other teams into bad decisions with the football. However, if I'm guessing, I think this is another slide back year for Kentucky given the schedule and their issues on defense.
KENTUCKY PREDICTION: 4-8
Thursday, August 18, 2016
Texas A&M SEC Football Preview 2016
Hello there Aggies. I speak from several years of experience living in Texas that I think of yall as that strange cult down in College Station. I had good friends of mine that would head to college for a year at Texas A&M, and come back weirdos. But if there's one thing Texas as a state knows it's football, and A&M put together some great years before hitting the skids in 2014. Now, most of the shine has come off the head coach Kevin Sumlin, several top players have transferred out of the program, and Johnny Football ain't walking through those doors again.
A&M last year was a victim of two things. First the middle of their schedule was insanely brutal. Second, they had 3 QBs get significant snaps, and then two them transfer out. Any time you have to play 3 QBs, something isn't right, and something wasn't right last year when the Aggies fell apart in the second half of the season. Kyle Allen hated it so much at A&M he transferred to Houston. Kyler Murray hated is so much he transferred to Oklahoma. For SEC fans, that would be like two Georgia QBs hating it so much they transferred to Georgia Tech and Tennessee. It's a kick in the face on every level.
And these weren't bad QBs at all. Kyle Allen was actually really good, 2200 yards, 56% completion, 17 TDs and only 7 picks. The interceptions are slightly high, but pretty forgivable in an offense where you're flinging the ball 283 times. And let's remember that 3 of those picks came in one game against Alabama. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was okay and even he left the program. So who is going to play quarterback at A&M? The answer is former Oklahoma player and now transfer Trevor Knight. You may remember Trevor Knight from that time on College Gameday when Katy Perry said he was hot and told him to call her. I would have broke my neck lunging for the phone.
Where was I? Oh right, Trevor Knight is the QB at A&M for one year, which should provide more stability than they saw in 2015. Here's the thing about Trevor, he's got a great arm and a really terrible brain for decision-making. Which leads Trevor to throw a ton of interceptions that you can't really afford in relation to his TDs. That's why he lost the job at OU and ended up at A&M. In his career, Knight has 25 TDs and 19 picks. When you get that dangerously close to 50-50 on the TD-INT rate, you are sprinting toward a bench seat faster than Usain Bolt in the 100m. Trevor will have to be more careful with the football in the SEC, because turning it over to meatgrinder running teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee? They'll just run the ball and keep your butt on the sidelines wondering why you didn't call Katy sooner.
The RB situation at A&M was one guy last year, and he was really REALLY good. Tra Carson went for 1165 yards for an average of 4.8 a carry, with 7 TDs. Yes the TDs are low because A&M didn't have a great offense, but the rushing total puts him 5th in the SEC behind just a few guys like Fournette, Hurd, and Henry. Not bad company for the young man. Guess what though? Like all great things in the SEC last year, it seems the NFL scooped them up quickly. Tra Carson is now on the Bungles, and that means a new RB will have to step up for A&M. The two candidates so far are junior transfer Keith Ford and junior James White. As of now, Sumlin hasn't picked a top guy, and likely won't until mid-way through the season. That's how RB works in the SEC now. You need two to survive.
Keith Ford didn't get the ball much last season, but when he did he was a 5.5 per carry guy with 6 TDs. The yardage overall won't impress you since he had fewer than 80 carries on the year, but he did manage to bust out a 56 yarder against Oklahoma State. James White won't really impress you with his numbers either as he only amassed 196 yards in 2015. If I'm leaning a direction I would think that Ford would get the nod, but we'll see who has a better practice in the fall before A&M starts with UCLA.
Wide Receivers had a field day last year in Sumlin's offense because he loves to throw the ball. Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones all had stellar years in 2015. Kirk and Reynolds were both top 10 in the SEC while Seals-Jones was 21st in receiving. Guess how many are returning? If you said ALL OF THEM you win a cookie. That's right, Trevor Knight is walking into a ready made scenario with some of the best receivers in the SEC. By all rights, if the offensive line can block a lick for him, they should have a vaunted passing attack in 2016.
But how is that offensive line? The answer in 2015 was pretty awful. Awful enough to get their line coach fired. But there's a new sheriff in town and 3 starters have moved on to graduation or the NFL. This is one of those rare scenarios when turnover is good, because the product on the field last year was so bad. The only downside to this turnover is that they are replacing their center, and you know how I feel about new centers in the SEC. That can be a recipe for disaster real quick if they start messing up the assignments under pressure.
On defense, A&M was stronger than I'd seen in a long time last season, but they really lacked some solid guys in the linebacker slots to take the pressure off the secondary. I was especially impressed with the defensive line players like Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. In fact Myles Garrett was one of the few players in college football to have more than 12 sacks on a season, and I think he was the only guy to do that AND force 5 fumbles. That's insane. He's a beast and he's back. So is most of the defense, and they will be coached by again by John Chavis, known for his great defenses at LSU and suddenly making the A&M defense relevant in 2015. I expect good things out of that defense again this year.
All this being said, A&M still plays in the ridiculous field of talent that is the SEC West. And that's no easy gauntlet for anybody, especially a team breaking in a new offensive line. While I think the team will be dramatically improved, I'm not sure it shows up in a championship this season like they may be hoping.
TEXAS A&M PREDICTION: 9-3
A&M last year was a victim of two things. First the middle of their schedule was insanely brutal. Second, they had 3 QBs get significant snaps, and then two them transfer out. Any time you have to play 3 QBs, something isn't right, and something wasn't right last year when the Aggies fell apart in the second half of the season. Kyle Allen hated it so much at A&M he transferred to Houston. Kyler Murray hated is so much he transferred to Oklahoma. For SEC fans, that would be like two Georgia QBs hating it so much they transferred to Georgia Tech and Tennessee. It's a kick in the face on every level.
And these weren't bad QBs at all. Kyle Allen was actually really good, 2200 yards, 56% completion, 17 TDs and only 7 picks. The interceptions are slightly high, but pretty forgivable in an offense where you're flinging the ball 283 times. And let's remember that 3 of those picks came in one game against Alabama. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was okay and even he left the program. So who is going to play quarterback at A&M? The answer is former Oklahoma player and now transfer Trevor Knight. You may remember Trevor Knight from that time on College Gameday when Katy Perry said he was hot and told him to call her. I would have broke my neck lunging for the phone.
Where was I? Oh right, Trevor Knight is the QB at A&M for one year, which should provide more stability than they saw in 2015. Here's the thing about Trevor, he's got a great arm and a really terrible brain for decision-making. Which leads Trevor to throw a ton of interceptions that you can't really afford in relation to his TDs. That's why he lost the job at OU and ended up at A&M. In his career, Knight has 25 TDs and 19 picks. When you get that dangerously close to 50-50 on the TD-INT rate, you are sprinting toward a bench seat faster than Usain Bolt in the 100m. Trevor will have to be more careful with the football in the SEC, because turning it over to meatgrinder running teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee? They'll just run the ball and keep your butt on the sidelines wondering why you didn't call Katy sooner.
The RB situation at A&M was one guy last year, and he was really REALLY good. Tra Carson went for 1165 yards for an average of 4.8 a carry, with 7 TDs. Yes the TDs are low because A&M didn't have a great offense, but the rushing total puts him 5th in the SEC behind just a few guys like Fournette, Hurd, and Henry. Not bad company for the young man. Guess what though? Like all great things in the SEC last year, it seems the NFL scooped them up quickly. Tra Carson is now on the Bungles, and that means a new RB will have to step up for A&M. The two candidates so far are junior transfer Keith Ford and junior James White. As of now, Sumlin hasn't picked a top guy, and likely won't until mid-way through the season. That's how RB works in the SEC now. You need two to survive.
Keith Ford didn't get the ball much last season, but when he did he was a 5.5 per carry guy with 6 TDs. The yardage overall won't impress you since he had fewer than 80 carries on the year, but he did manage to bust out a 56 yarder against Oklahoma State. James White won't really impress you with his numbers either as he only amassed 196 yards in 2015. If I'm leaning a direction I would think that Ford would get the nod, but we'll see who has a better practice in the fall before A&M starts with UCLA.
Wide Receivers had a field day last year in Sumlin's offense because he loves to throw the ball. Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones all had stellar years in 2015. Kirk and Reynolds were both top 10 in the SEC while Seals-Jones was 21st in receiving. Guess how many are returning? If you said ALL OF THEM you win a cookie. That's right, Trevor Knight is walking into a ready made scenario with some of the best receivers in the SEC. By all rights, if the offensive line can block a lick for him, they should have a vaunted passing attack in 2016.
But how is that offensive line? The answer in 2015 was pretty awful. Awful enough to get their line coach fired. But there's a new sheriff in town and 3 starters have moved on to graduation or the NFL. This is one of those rare scenarios when turnover is good, because the product on the field last year was so bad. The only downside to this turnover is that they are replacing their center, and you know how I feel about new centers in the SEC. That can be a recipe for disaster real quick if they start messing up the assignments under pressure.
On defense, A&M was stronger than I'd seen in a long time last season, but they really lacked some solid guys in the linebacker slots to take the pressure off the secondary. I was especially impressed with the defensive line players like Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. In fact Myles Garrett was one of the few players in college football to have more than 12 sacks on a season, and I think he was the only guy to do that AND force 5 fumbles. That's insane. He's a beast and he's back. So is most of the defense, and they will be coached by again by John Chavis, known for his great defenses at LSU and suddenly making the A&M defense relevant in 2015. I expect good things out of that defense again this year.
All this being said, A&M still plays in the ridiculous field of talent that is the SEC West. And that's no easy gauntlet for anybody, especially a team breaking in a new offensive line. While I think the team will be dramatically improved, I'm not sure it shows up in a championship this season like they may be hoping.
TEXAS A&M PREDICTION: 9-3
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Missouri SEC Football 2016 Preview
Ah Missouri, or Mizzou to the fans. You are to the SEC what the Tennessee Titans are to the NFL, with slightly more success. You're the team that every forgets when listing teams, then goes, "Oh yeah, and Missouri I guess." And yet, you've won the SEC East twice, which is both an achievement for the school, and a horrific indictment of that half of the conference. But none of that matters if Mizzou can pull off the ultimate upset one day, and win the SEC outright. South Carolina has never done it. Arkansas, Vandy, and A&M have never done it. Hell, in the few years you've been here you already have more East titles than Kentucky, Vandy, and South Carolina have had EVER. So when I kid you, Mizzou, know I do it with more respect than I have for any of those other schools.
Last year was a bad year for Missouri by almost any standard. They finished 5-7 overall, missing out on a bowl game, and went 1-7 in the conference. That's a precipitous fall from grace considering they were playing in the Georgia Dome for the title in years prior. Well for one thing, the leading QB Maty Mauk got suspended mid-season, and then subsequently dismissed from the team after the season was over. Considering that Mauk had 4000 yards and was a big part of the two prior East titles, that was a killer blow. Freshman Drew Lock attempted to step in mid-season against South Carolina, and did well to lead them to a victory. Then everyone remember that South Carolina was the worst team in the league. For the rest of Lock's starts, he got smashed in the face losing everything except a token victory against BYU.
Thankfully, Missouri is one of the few programs where I don't have to talk about a QB controversy. There's a 95% chance that now sophomore Drew Lock starts the season. I would expect growth this season out of Lock, who was sort of thrown into the deep end last year with no real safety net. As a result, he looked out of sorts, threw 8 picks to 4 TDs, and completed less than 50% of his passes. Will Lock get better? Honestly, if he got worse he'd get benched mid-year. I can't tell how much of Lock's problems were just freshman jitters, and how much of it is simply a lack of talent. However, when you can't score more than 3 points on Vandy? I have serious questions about your ability to lead a team at all. Lock will have a ton to prove in 2016 if Missouri wants to ride behind him as their lead QB.
In the skills department, Ish Witter and Russell Hansbrough were the two leaders in rushing yards last season and while Witter will return for this season, Hansbrough is gone to the NFL. The weird thing about Missouri's offense is that despite the QB issues, they don't run a lot. Their run/pass split was almost 50/50 with about a 20 play difference in favor of the rush. And with RB Trevon Walters getting dismissed from the team, it's basically Ish and a bunch of other dudes. Oh but wait, don't forget about graduate and JUCO transfers this year like Alex Ross, who will be looking to get some reps at RB as well. They are doing everything they can to overhaul this offense because it was so bad in 2015.
On the WR side nobody had a great year because Locke was the QB, but even so J'Mon Moore, Nate Brown, and Wesley Leftwich were the top targets. Leftwich went to the NFL but didn't get drafted to my knowledge. That leaves the WR duties to leaders Moore and Brown, who should provide a good 1-2 punch is Lock can improve his accuracy, along with graduate transfer Chris Black from Alabama.
The real strength of Missouri was their defense last year. In fact, Mizzou was 5th in the nation in points allowed, which should really highlight exactly how horrific their offense was. If Missouri could have scored on average 21 points a game? They probably have a 10 win season. Instead, they were the 2nd worst offense in America at 127th on the year. So what happened to all the defensive talent from 2015?
Mizzou lost All SEC Linebacker Kentrell Brothers to the NFL, who totalled the most tackles in all of FBS with 152 on the season, along with their starting guard and center from the offensive line. That means most of the defensive talent from Missouri is still intact for 2016, which should scare the hell out of any offense. Also, due to their head coach retiring now their former defensive coordinator Barry Odom to run the program. If anything, I expect the defense to get stronger.
Then there's the offensive line. Good lord the line. They graduated or promoted everybody of consequence to the NFL, and there's absolutely no real experience anywhere on this offensive line. The year could be a complete mess in the trenches specifically due to this issue. I always say the SEC is won in the trenches, and if that's truly the case Mizzouri will be stellar on defense again, and then destroyed on offense as they struggle to get into field goal range.
Honestly, besides the defense there are WAY too many questions on this Missouri team. They don't know if they have a real QB, they don't know anything about their offensive line, and they are trying to supplement their skill positions with transfer players. It's all setting up for a massive disappointment unless a lot of younger players really step it up and overperform, or the defense turns into the 2015 Broncos and scores 14 points a game off turnovers. It might happen. It probably won't. But I do think they can squeeze out a bowl eligible season thanks to a favorable schedule.
MISSOURI PREDICTION: 6-6
Last year was a bad year for Missouri by almost any standard. They finished 5-7 overall, missing out on a bowl game, and went 1-7 in the conference. That's a precipitous fall from grace considering they were playing in the Georgia Dome for the title in years prior. Well for one thing, the leading QB Maty Mauk got suspended mid-season, and then subsequently dismissed from the team after the season was over. Considering that Mauk had 4000 yards and was a big part of the two prior East titles, that was a killer blow. Freshman Drew Lock attempted to step in mid-season against South Carolina, and did well to lead them to a victory. Then everyone remember that South Carolina was the worst team in the league. For the rest of Lock's starts, he got smashed in the face losing everything except a token victory against BYU.
Thankfully, Missouri is one of the few programs where I don't have to talk about a QB controversy. There's a 95% chance that now sophomore Drew Lock starts the season. I would expect growth this season out of Lock, who was sort of thrown into the deep end last year with no real safety net. As a result, he looked out of sorts, threw 8 picks to 4 TDs, and completed less than 50% of his passes. Will Lock get better? Honestly, if he got worse he'd get benched mid-year. I can't tell how much of Lock's problems were just freshman jitters, and how much of it is simply a lack of talent. However, when you can't score more than 3 points on Vandy? I have serious questions about your ability to lead a team at all. Lock will have a ton to prove in 2016 if Missouri wants to ride behind him as their lead QB.
In the skills department, Ish Witter and Russell Hansbrough were the two leaders in rushing yards last season and while Witter will return for this season, Hansbrough is gone to the NFL. The weird thing about Missouri's offense is that despite the QB issues, they don't run a lot. Their run/pass split was almost 50/50 with about a 20 play difference in favor of the rush. And with RB Trevon Walters getting dismissed from the team, it's basically Ish and a bunch of other dudes. Oh but wait, don't forget about graduate and JUCO transfers this year like Alex Ross, who will be looking to get some reps at RB as well. They are doing everything they can to overhaul this offense because it was so bad in 2015.
On the WR side nobody had a great year because Locke was the QB, but even so J'Mon Moore, Nate Brown, and Wesley Leftwich were the top targets. Leftwich went to the NFL but didn't get drafted to my knowledge. That leaves the WR duties to leaders Moore and Brown, who should provide a good 1-2 punch is Lock can improve his accuracy, along with graduate transfer Chris Black from Alabama.
The real strength of Missouri was their defense last year. In fact, Mizzou was 5th in the nation in points allowed, which should really highlight exactly how horrific their offense was. If Missouri could have scored on average 21 points a game? They probably have a 10 win season. Instead, they were the 2nd worst offense in America at 127th on the year. So what happened to all the defensive talent from 2015?
Mizzou lost All SEC Linebacker Kentrell Brothers to the NFL, who totalled the most tackles in all of FBS with 152 on the season, along with their starting guard and center from the offensive line. That means most of the defensive talent from Missouri is still intact for 2016, which should scare the hell out of any offense. Also, due to their head coach retiring now their former defensive coordinator Barry Odom to run the program. If anything, I expect the defense to get stronger.
Then there's the offensive line. Good lord the line. They graduated or promoted everybody of consequence to the NFL, and there's absolutely no real experience anywhere on this offensive line. The year could be a complete mess in the trenches specifically due to this issue. I always say the SEC is won in the trenches, and if that's truly the case Mizzouri will be stellar on defense again, and then destroyed on offense as they struggle to get into field goal range.
Honestly, besides the defense there are WAY too many questions on this Missouri team. They don't know if they have a real QB, they don't know anything about their offensive line, and they are trying to supplement their skill positions with transfer players. It's all setting up for a massive disappointment unless a lot of younger players really step it up and overperform, or the defense turns into the 2015 Broncos and scores 14 points a game off turnovers. It might happen. It probably won't. But I do think they can squeeze out a bowl eligible season thanks to a favorable schedule.
MISSOURI PREDICTION: 6-6
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Auburn SEC Football Preview 2016
Yesterday, I covered the worst team in the East. Today I cover the worst team in the West from last season, the Auburn Tigers. The funniest part to me about last season was how much hype surrounded the Auburn program in the preseason. If you want a good laugh, go and look at the preseason rankings and articles written about the Auburn program before 2015 started. Auburn was #6 in the nation in rankings, and Jeremy Johnson was projected as a front-runner for the Heisman trophy.
Here's the punchline: Auburn finished 7-6 and 2-6 in the conference. Oh and Jeremy Johnson was a front-runner in bagging groceries at Kroger, because he got benched mid-season for Sean White, and then benched again for the bowl game. Auburn ended up losing to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and of course Alabama. They ended up winning against Louisville, San Jose State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Idaho, and Jacksonville State in OT. That's right, and they should have lost to Jacksonville State, except for a shanked Jacksonville punt late in the 4th quarter that gave Auburn a short field for an easy TD to tie the game and take it to OT.
I've seen some overrated press for a team in my day, but Auburn really takes the crap-cake from 2015 in terms of how much the media bought into a bad program with a bad QB. The Gus Malzahn offense really couldn't score points, and that's what he was known for in his career. With an average of 27.5 points per game, Auburn was 74th in CFB, which should really tell you about how bad defenses have gotten over the last few years. But just as bad was the fact Auburn gave up 26 points a game on defense, which was 54th in CFB and 11th in the SEC. Behind the likes of A&M and Vanderbilt.
Now, I enjoy kicking Auburn when they are down as much as the next guy since I'm a Georgia fan, but I'm also a gambler and incredibly objective about how these teams are slated to play when my money is on the line. And it will be no different here as we look at Auburn in 2016, where I would expect this is a make or break year for everybody on their coaching staff.
The best thing Auburn had last year was Peyton Barber, the workload RB who carried over 1000 yards on 238 carries with 13 TDs. They also had Jovon Robinson who averaged over 5 yards a carry on 100+ carries as well during the season. The running game was strong with both of those guys, but Peyton Barber left for the greener pastures of the NFL, leaving the majority of carries to Jovon. But wait, Jovon Robinson got dismissed from the team before Fall camp even started. Uh-oh. That's uh...less than ideal. Who the hell is going to run the ball with the two best guys off the team?
The running duties will fall by default to sophomore RB Kerryon Johnson, who had a limited amount of carries in 2015 with around 50 total for 200+ yards. But even with those limited carries Johnson found the endzone 3 times. That's good, because in Gus Malzahn's offense, running the ball is paramount. In fact, Auburn as a team had 587 rushes last year in 13 games. That averages out to about 45 carries a game. Auburn goes fast and they love to run, which means those carries have to get split between the backs and usually the QB. If you can't run, you can't play for Gus. As long as Gus still has a job.
Remember what I said in the Vandy article about "Quarterback controversy?" Get ready for a ton of those around the league, and Auburn is no different. Auburn has three options they can turn to, two of which are the same bad choices as last season: Jeremy Johnson and Sean White. The third option is a transfer named John Franklin III, and you know 9 times out of 10 a guy with a number after his name has to be a jerk. So it's not looking great in terms of choices for Auburn with the devils you know, and the devil you don't. My guess is that Jeremy Johnson will get most of the playing time, because Johnson has proven he can make plays before, while Sean White has proven he can throw more interceptions than TDs. Heck, knowing Auburn they'll be lucky if all of them stay eligible this year.
At WR, Auburn's best receiver last year was Ricardo Louis with 716 yards on 46 catches. Nobody else was even close. The next best guy was Melvin Ray with 279 yards on 20 catches. But like many pieces of bad news, the hits keep on coming for Auburn. Ricardo Louis and Melvin Ray both went on to the NFL, leaving the WR duties to a bunch of possible freshman candidates. And like I've said before, nothing makes a QB battle tougher than throwing to unproven targets. Marcus Davis, Tony Stevens, and David Smith are all among the names you may hear in the Auburn WR battle. We'll see as the season progresses if any of them pan out.
What about the offensive line though? At least that has a chance at improving right? The answer is a resounding YES. If there's anything the Auburn offense can hang their hat on (and there isn't much) it's their offensive line this year. They have two returning guards in Alex Kozan and Braden Smith, both of whom are key positions in the running game. Prior center Austin Golson is set to move over to tackle, and a senior named Xavier Dampeer (who has a vampire name) will step in at center. Overall, if Auburn can't run behind this line, they should pack up every skill player they have, fire the head coach, and start over the program.
Besides the offensive line, this Auburn program is going to rely on their defense more than ever. Gus Malzahn was recently quoted at SEC Media days saying, "I think we got a chance to have one of the best, if not the best, defenses we've had at my time at Auburn, which I think is very important."
Is that coachspeak or the truth? Auburn's defense certainly improved in the bowl game, holding Memphis to 10 points, but that's months of preparation against Memphis who, no disrespect, isn't on par with SEC West talent. And Auburn has to play in the West for the majority of their games. I mean Gus even said how they improved late in the year, but he must have forgotten about giving up 34 points to Idaho in his 11th game. What I can tell you is that Auburn is on their 4th defensive coordinator in 5 years, and his name is Kevin Steele. I like defense coaches with names that sound like metal. HARD AS STEELE. Somebody make shirts.
One thing Steele will have to shore up is the Auburn defensive line. Auburn was 11th in the SEC against the pass, but was tied for 3rd in the conference in interceptions. Why the disparity? Well, Auburn got almost zero pressure on the QB that's why. With only 19 sacks all season, they finished 102nd in college football in sacks. Oh and their defensive line finished 11th in the conference in run defense as well. Basically, the Tigers were terrible up front on defense which is the ultimate mortal sin in the SEC. If they can't stop the run or sack the QB in 2016? They'll finish dead last again.
Taking a look at the schedule for Auburn, they get kicked in the face right out of the gate with an opener against Clemson. I don't expect that to go well. They get a week off against Arkansas State, then follow that up with A&M and LSU back to back. It doesn't get much easier as they face the gauntlet of Western opponents, plus Georgia and Vandy out of the East. Which means I think Auburn will be lucky to get bowl eligible again, and probably suffer through another bad season that likely gets Malzahn his walking papers.
AUBURN PREDICTION: 6-6
Here's the punchline: Auburn finished 7-6 and 2-6 in the conference. Oh and Jeremy Johnson was a front-runner in bagging groceries at Kroger, because he got benched mid-season for Sean White, and then benched again for the bowl game. Auburn ended up losing to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and of course Alabama. They ended up winning against Louisville, San Jose State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Idaho, and Jacksonville State in OT. That's right, and they should have lost to Jacksonville State, except for a shanked Jacksonville punt late in the 4th quarter that gave Auburn a short field for an easy TD to tie the game and take it to OT.
I've seen some overrated press for a team in my day, but Auburn really takes the crap-cake from 2015 in terms of how much the media bought into a bad program with a bad QB. The Gus Malzahn offense really couldn't score points, and that's what he was known for in his career. With an average of 27.5 points per game, Auburn was 74th in CFB, which should really tell you about how bad defenses have gotten over the last few years. But just as bad was the fact Auburn gave up 26 points a game on defense, which was 54th in CFB and 11th in the SEC. Behind the likes of A&M and Vanderbilt.
Now, I enjoy kicking Auburn when they are down as much as the next guy since I'm a Georgia fan, but I'm also a gambler and incredibly objective about how these teams are slated to play when my money is on the line. And it will be no different here as we look at Auburn in 2016, where I would expect this is a make or break year for everybody on their coaching staff.
The best thing Auburn had last year was Peyton Barber, the workload RB who carried over 1000 yards on 238 carries with 13 TDs. They also had Jovon Robinson who averaged over 5 yards a carry on 100+ carries as well during the season. The running game was strong with both of those guys, but Peyton Barber left for the greener pastures of the NFL, leaving the majority of carries to Jovon. But wait, Jovon Robinson got dismissed from the team before Fall camp even started. Uh-oh. That's uh...less than ideal. Who the hell is going to run the ball with the two best guys off the team?
The running duties will fall by default to sophomore RB Kerryon Johnson, who had a limited amount of carries in 2015 with around 50 total for 200+ yards. But even with those limited carries Johnson found the endzone 3 times. That's good, because in Gus Malzahn's offense, running the ball is paramount. In fact, Auburn as a team had 587 rushes last year in 13 games. That averages out to about 45 carries a game. Auburn goes fast and they love to run, which means those carries have to get split between the backs and usually the QB. If you can't run, you can't play for Gus. As long as Gus still has a job.
Remember what I said in the Vandy article about "Quarterback controversy?" Get ready for a ton of those around the league, and Auburn is no different. Auburn has three options they can turn to, two of which are the same bad choices as last season: Jeremy Johnson and Sean White. The third option is a transfer named John Franklin III, and you know 9 times out of 10 a guy with a number after his name has to be a jerk. So it's not looking great in terms of choices for Auburn with the devils you know, and the devil you don't. My guess is that Jeremy Johnson will get most of the playing time, because Johnson has proven he can make plays before, while Sean White has proven he can throw more interceptions than TDs. Heck, knowing Auburn they'll be lucky if all of them stay eligible this year.
At WR, Auburn's best receiver last year was Ricardo Louis with 716 yards on 46 catches. Nobody else was even close. The next best guy was Melvin Ray with 279 yards on 20 catches. But like many pieces of bad news, the hits keep on coming for Auburn. Ricardo Louis and Melvin Ray both went on to the NFL, leaving the WR duties to a bunch of possible freshman candidates. And like I've said before, nothing makes a QB battle tougher than throwing to unproven targets. Marcus Davis, Tony Stevens, and David Smith are all among the names you may hear in the Auburn WR battle. We'll see as the season progresses if any of them pan out.
What about the offensive line though? At least that has a chance at improving right? The answer is a resounding YES. If there's anything the Auburn offense can hang their hat on (and there isn't much) it's their offensive line this year. They have two returning guards in Alex Kozan and Braden Smith, both of whom are key positions in the running game. Prior center Austin Golson is set to move over to tackle, and a senior named Xavier Dampeer (who has a vampire name) will step in at center. Overall, if Auburn can't run behind this line, they should pack up every skill player they have, fire the head coach, and start over the program.
Besides the offensive line, this Auburn program is going to rely on their defense more than ever. Gus Malzahn was recently quoted at SEC Media days saying, "I think we got a chance to have one of the best, if not the best, defenses we've had at my time at Auburn, which I think is very important."
Is that coachspeak or the truth? Auburn's defense certainly improved in the bowl game, holding Memphis to 10 points, but that's months of preparation against Memphis who, no disrespect, isn't on par with SEC West talent. And Auburn has to play in the West for the majority of their games. I mean Gus even said how they improved late in the year, but he must have forgotten about giving up 34 points to Idaho in his 11th game. What I can tell you is that Auburn is on their 4th defensive coordinator in 5 years, and his name is Kevin Steele. I like defense coaches with names that sound like metal. HARD AS STEELE. Somebody make shirts.
One thing Steele will have to shore up is the Auburn defensive line. Auburn was 11th in the SEC against the pass, but was tied for 3rd in the conference in interceptions. Why the disparity? Well, Auburn got almost zero pressure on the QB that's why. With only 19 sacks all season, they finished 102nd in college football in sacks. Oh and their defensive line finished 11th in the conference in run defense as well. Basically, the Tigers were terrible up front on defense which is the ultimate mortal sin in the SEC. If they can't stop the run or sack the QB in 2016? They'll finish dead last again.
Taking a look at the schedule for Auburn, they get kicked in the face right out of the gate with an opener against Clemson. I don't expect that to go well. They get a week off against Arkansas State, then follow that up with A&M and LSU back to back. It doesn't get much easier as they face the gauntlet of Western opponents, plus Georgia and Vandy out of the East. Which means I think Auburn will be lucky to get bowl eligible again, and probably suffer through another bad season that likely gets Malzahn his walking papers.
AUBURN PREDICTION: 6-6
Monday, August 15, 2016
South Carolina SEC Football Preview 2016
Yes, it's that time again. I'm bringing back the site even though I ran out of steam last year with a new plan and a new focus. This time I'll be doing season preview for all of the SEC teams leading up to the season, and then during the week I'll pick one major game to review the film and give you my impressions. Also, as usual I'll be giving you my SEC picks against the spread for fun. Last year I had issues with my top picks. Maybe this year I'll do a little better? Who knows, it's gambling.
Anyway I'll start with the bottom of the Eastern division in South Carolina, who finished with an awful 3-9 record last year and their head coach quit mid-season. So Steve Spurrier has retired, and in his place is the head coach that nobody wanted, Will Muschamp. You may remember Muschamp from that time he completely screwed up the Florida football program and got fired. There is literally no way in my mind that Will Muschamp was the top candidate for this job at South Carolina, but the search kept going on and on until eventually they just picked him. Can Muschamp coach? I think Florida proved that he can coach a defense. The other side of the ball is up for serious debate.
Get used to one thing in these previews, and that's the phrase "Quarterback controversy" because it's going to appear a lot in the SEC this year. At a time when great college QBs are getting rarer across the land (seriously, just look at who got drafted in the top spots last year), the SEC is probably one of the worst leagues when it comes to QB play. If you pulled up the top passing teams in college football last year by yardage, only 2 SEC teams appeared in the top 25. Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Oh and guess what? Mississippi State's QB graduated to the NFL. So that leaves Mr. Chad Kelly as the only guy with a big passing arm in the SEC that's coming back.
What does that mean for South Carolina? Last year they barely had a QB as they switched constantly between Perry Orth, Lorenzo Nunez, and Connor Mitch. It would be a stretch to call any of them good QBs. And it kept getting worse as the year went on since Orth got the majority of the snaps, but couldn't stop the turnovers. What does that mean for this year? Perry Orth is a senior and still in the battle for the top job, which should excite exactly nobody. The other guys is a freshman, Brandon McIlwain, who has been a top performer in the spring according to several sources.
Personally, if I'm making the decision I'm not starting Orth again. I've seen a season of Orth, and he finished with sub-2000 yards, 12 TDs, 9 picks, and he was throwing to one of the best receivers that South Carolina has ever had in Pharoh Cooper who is now in the NFL. Even that wasn't enough to work out that passing game. Also, South Carolina should have ZERO illusions about this season. They are working out a new coach, likely a new QB, almost all new receivers, and an entirely revamped defense scheme. This isn't a season to win the SEC. They should send out a new QB who can grow with this coach and these players, taking his lumps in a season South Carolina will likely not compete.
What will work in South Carolina's favor is their returning RB David Williams, who likely will get more carries than last season where he averaged 3.5 a carry behind a sub-par offensive line. He only got about 10 carries a game because Brandon Wilds took most of the action on his way to the NFL. Now Williams is set to be the prime guy, but there will be some pressure from young upstart freshman AJ Turner as well. South Carolina doesn't really run just one RB, like most teams in the SEC, so I expect some split carries but with Williams getting the lion's share if he can perform.
In the WR department, you're looking at the loss of Pharoh Cooper hitting the team very hard, as he had 973 yards and 66 catches last year with 8 TDs. The next closest guy was Jerell Adams with 28 catches and 421 yards with 3 TDs. Oh but wait, Adams went to the NFL too. Bad luck there. So who's left? Yeah that would be Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards (Edwards is a freshman). In fact there are four freshman receivers who may get time behind Samuel, who was out with a hamstring injury in 2015, which left him with severely reduced numbers. Still, Samuel is a sophomore, so the WR core is EXTREMELY young, which would be a huge problem for even a veteran QB.
On the offensive line, South Carolina returns their center Alan Knott, which is probably the biggest deal on the whole team. Why? Because centers control the blocking scheme, and help younger offensive lineman get in the right areas. Since South Carolina only returns two starters on the line, the name of the game is going to be learn quick, or get run over. I don't expect South Carolina to have a top line this year, which will make it even harder on the RB and QB situation for the Gamecocks.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Gamecocks were the worst in the SEC last year in almost every metric. They gave up the most points, they gave up the most yards, but they were 5th in the league in turnovers gained. So the team was obviously ball-hawking, making up the for the fact they couldn't stop a kitten with a cold. That being said, one of their best players last year was Skai Moore, an incredibly talented LB who is now out for the whole season with a disc injury to his neck. And there really isn't a ton of proposed upside for this defense. The only thing they have going for them is that Will Muschamp is the coach, and he rarely puts a terrible defensive product on the field. The Gamecock team this year may even test Muschamps defensive limits.
As for the predictions, I think South Carolina will be lucky to get 6 wins this year. They have two guaranteed wins in UMASS and Western Carolina (you would think) but beyond that? Even Vandy might give this team a run for their money. And let's not forget that South Carolina lost to The Citadel last year. So, anything is possible if the wheels really come off the wagon, and with Muschamp they just might.
SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION: 5-7
Anyway I'll start with the bottom of the Eastern division in South Carolina, who finished with an awful 3-9 record last year and their head coach quit mid-season. So Steve Spurrier has retired, and in his place is the head coach that nobody wanted, Will Muschamp. You may remember Muschamp from that time he completely screwed up the Florida football program and got fired. There is literally no way in my mind that Will Muschamp was the top candidate for this job at South Carolina, but the search kept going on and on until eventually they just picked him. Can Muschamp coach? I think Florida proved that he can coach a defense. The other side of the ball is up for serious debate.
Get used to one thing in these previews, and that's the phrase "Quarterback controversy" because it's going to appear a lot in the SEC this year. At a time when great college QBs are getting rarer across the land (seriously, just look at who got drafted in the top spots last year), the SEC is probably one of the worst leagues when it comes to QB play. If you pulled up the top passing teams in college football last year by yardage, only 2 SEC teams appeared in the top 25. Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Oh and guess what? Mississippi State's QB graduated to the NFL. So that leaves Mr. Chad Kelly as the only guy with a big passing arm in the SEC that's coming back.
What does that mean for South Carolina? Last year they barely had a QB as they switched constantly between Perry Orth, Lorenzo Nunez, and Connor Mitch. It would be a stretch to call any of them good QBs. And it kept getting worse as the year went on since Orth got the majority of the snaps, but couldn't stop the turnovers. What does that mean for this year? Perry Orth is a senior and still in the battle for the top job, which should excite exactly nobody. The other guys is a freshman, Brandon McIlwain, who has been a top performer in the spring according to several sources.
Personally, if I'm making the decision I'm not starting Orth again. I've seen a season of Orth, and he finished with sub-2000 yards, 12 TDs, 9 picks, and he was throwing to one of the best receivers that South Carolina has ever had in Pharoh Cooper who is now in the NFL. Even that wasn't enough to work out that passing game. Also, South Carolina should have ZERO illusions about this season. They are working out a new coach, likely a new QB, almost all new receivers, and an entirely revamped defense scheme. This isn't a season to win the SEC. They should send out a new QB who can grow with this coach and these players, taking his lumps in a season South Carolina will likely not compete.
What will work in South Carolina's favor is their returning RB David Williams, who likely will get more carries than last season where he averaged 3.5 a carry behind a sub-par offensive line. He only got about 10 carries a game because Brandon Wilds took most of the action on his way to the NFL. Now Williams is set to be the prime guy, but there will be some pressure from young upstart freshman AJ Turner as well. South Carolina doesn't really run just one RB, like most teams in the SEC, so I expect some split carries but with Williams getting the lion's share if he can perform.
In the WR department, you're looking at the loss of Pharoh Cooper hitting the team very hard, as he had 973 yards and 66 catches last year with 8 TDs. The next closest guy was Jerell Adams with 28 catches and 421 yards with 3 TDs. Oh but wait, Adams went to the NFL too. Bad luck there. So who's left? Yeah that would be Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards (Edwards is a freshman). In fact there are four freshman receivers who may get time behind Samuel, who was out with a hamstring injury in 2015, which left him with severely reduced numbers. Still, Samuel is a sophomore, so the WR core is EXTREMELY young, which would be a huge problem for even a veteran QB.
On the offensive line, South Carolina returns their center Alan Knott, which is probably the biggest deal on the whole team. Why? Because centers control the blocking scheme, and help younger offensive lineman get in the right areas. Since South Carolina only returns two starters on the line, the name of the game is going to be learn quick, or get run over. I don't expect South Carolina to have a top line this year, which will make it even harder on the RB and QB situation for the Gamecocks.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Gamecocks were the worst in the SEC last year in almost every metric. They gave up the most points, they gave up the most yards, but they were 5th in the league in turnovers gained. So the team was obviously ball-hawking, making up the for the fact they couldn't stop a kitten with a cold. That being said, one of their best players last year was Skai Moore, an incredibly talented LB who is now out for the whole season with a disc injury to his neck. And there really isn't a ton of proposed upside for this defense. The only thing they have going for them is that Will Muschamp is the coach, and he rarely puts a terrible defensive product on the field. The Gamecock team this year may even test Muschamps defensive limits.
As for the predictions, I think South Carolina will be lucky to get 6 wins this year. They have two guaranteed wins in UMASS and Western Carolina (you would think) but beyond that? Even Vandy might give this team a run for their money. And let's not forget that South Carolina lost to The Citadel last year. So, anything is possible if the wheels really come off the wagon, and with Muschamp they just might.
SOUTH CAROLINA PREDICTION: 5-7
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