Okay folks it's time for my season picks, and my recommended bets for the year (for entertainment purposes only, don't bet your house on this stuff). I'll start by listing out my projected win totals for each team and their corresponding over/under season bet. I'll pull from the Bovada numbers as of this morning for my picks.
OVER UNDER SEASON WINS
ALABAMA - Projected Wins 11 - O/U Total 9.5 - ADVICE: OVER The over seems obvious here, and because of that, Bovada jacked up the over odds to -280 on this pick. Sportsbook.ga moved the line to 10 games as the total with a number of -135 to bet that. My advice is if you want the Alabama pick, find a line that moved to 10 and take the push for the better odds if Alabama wins 11. The odds they win 9 in my mind is pretty low.
FLORIDA - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 8 - ADVICE: OVER The over looks like a good play for a lot of reasons here. First if you're betting it, your downside is that Florida drops two more games than my projection and finishes 7-5 to take a loss. Second, is that likely coming off a year they won the East easily with a bad QB? I don't think so. Third, you push on an 8, which gives you a lot of the upside. -130 to take the over.
OLE MISS - Projected Wins 8 - O/U Total 9.5 - ADVICE: AVOID Everyone is taking the under. On Bovada it moved to -250 on the under, while on Sportsbook.ag they moved it to 8 win even. If you like getting bad odds, you can take the under on a pretty sure thing according to the public, but I like avoiding this bet completely.
TENNESSEE - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 10 - ADVICE: UNDER UNDER UNDER. I like the under with Tennessee at 10 wins for two reasons. First, they play Alabama and I don't think they win that game. Two, they play Florida, A&M and Georgia and I don't believe they win all three games. At the very least that puts you on a push. If you think they can drop another game anywhere you win. I don't see 11-1 in Tennessee's future, so I like the under here.
ARKANSAS - Projected Wins 6 - O/U Total 7 - ADVICE: UNDER Okay here's one of mine where you can make some serious money on the dark side. The world likes Arkansas over. So much on Bovada that they've driven it to -260. If you want to take a flyer that Arkansas goes in the tank, you can get the under +175 right now. I'd suggest it if you're frisky.
GEORGIA - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 9.5 - ADVICE: AVOID This is a sucker play. Don't bet on Georgia in a new season with a new QB, new coach, and a mostly new defense. Stay away from this one since there is no push option if things go way right or way wrong.
LSU - Projected Wins 10 - O/U Total 10.5 - ADVICE: AVOID Another sucker play. I want no part of determining if LSU loses one or two games, which is all this bet is about. It's too tight and we have no real read on that team against the West.
VANDY - Projected Wins 3 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: UNDER, I'd probably put a couple of units on this because Bovada has really jacked the odds around to -280 on the under. I have no idea why they have the number that high. I can see 5 wins maybe. I can see 6 wins in a career year. But 7 and the other side of a loss? That looks like madness to me right now.
MISSISSIPPI STATE - Projected Wins 7 - O/U Total - ADVICE: AVOID Bovada pulled the MS State line for some reason, but Sportsbook had it at 6.5 with -130 on the over. I think this is one of those you avoid. Don't throw money away on a MS State team we're not sure of this year.
KENTUCKY - Projected Wins 4 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: UNDER Love me some UNDER this year and here's another. Bovada's line is already -200 so I'm not alone. You're again only losing if Kentucky pulls off a miracle and wins 7 games. I don't see it.
TEXAS A&M - Projected Wins 9 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: OVER. LOVE LOVE LOVE the OVER here. People are expecting a disaster in the gambling community on A&M, and the over is getting you +150 at Bovada. I'd take that and run with it.
MISSOURI - Projected Wins 6 - O/U Total 6 - ADVICE: AVOID Do nothing we have the push number here.
AUBURN - Projected Wins 6 - O/U Total 7 - ADVICE: AVOID Ehhhhh this one is split dead even in the community. You're getting -115 on both sides because nobody know about Auburn at all. I'd avoid simply because they are so schizo after the last few seasons you're likely to get burned.
SOUTH CAROLINA - Projected Wins 5 - O/U Total 6.5 - ADVICE: AVOID I've rarely seen this but the Under is now -300, which means people are scrambling to say SC will suck. I agree, I think they will be horrible, but you're getting no return at Bovada for that bet. Sportsbook moved the line to 5 even, which is what I had. This is one to avoid as well.
SEC DIVISION WINNERS
EAST - Florida is a good bet in the SEC East because they are getting +300 right now. I like them as a dark horse East winner mostly because they've beaten Tennessee 11 years in a row, and they beat them last year while Tennessee fielded pretty much the same team. Georgia would be a decent pick at +250 as well if you wanted to spread two bets in this scenario and still collect. You're essentially shading out Tennessee for the underdog plays.
WEST - Alabama is even money in the West for some reason. I'd jump on that. Why not after all. Until proven otherwise you can make some decent cash there. If you'd like a 2 play hedge, you can put 3 units on Alabama and 2 units on LSU at +180. If Alabama wins, you collect one unit. If LSU wins you collect a sixth of a unit. It's not a bad play to hedge out the top two favorites.
SEC CHAMPION
I have Alabama winning the SEC which would pay +160 on the bet. It's not great odds so I wouldn't recommend playing it. If you are looking for the dark horse play, there's Florida at +1800, or Georgia at +900. However, I find these kinds of bets to be a waste of time for the most part since Alabama probably is the prohibitive favorite and you're tying up your money on essentially a championship game.
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