SEC Picks: Week 4

Last week I went 2-2 on the picks, so I'm still 2 units down on the season so far. Stupid Kentucky really let me down late against Florida. That was 2 points from getting into the number. Oh well. On to this week where we're stepping it up a notch. We're finally getting into some 2 unit plays! I'll also offer a contrarian pick if you're a house-style bettor.

2 Unit Plays:

LSU v. Syracuse +23.5 : I like LSU -23.5 in the game. Syracuse has played nobody of consequence, so their points per game is highly inflated. Defensively, Syracuse also hasn't seen a thing like LSU yet. What the Tigers did to Auburn? That's a small taste of how ugly this can get. No trap here, LSU has Eastern Michigan as home next week, so all their focus can go on making a statement in New York.

Tennessee v. Florida -1.5 : I like TENNESSEE +1.5 in this game. Tennessee is getting points on the road against a Florida team that can't score points. Tennessee's defense is the best that Florida has seen this year, and Tennessee has already been battle tested against OU. What's more important? This is a career-defining game for Butch Jones and he knows it. I love desperate teams with everything on the line.



1 Unit Plays:

Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +25 : I like VANDERBILT +25 in this game. You've watched Ole Miss blast a few teams this year, and Vandy isn't that great, but they do a good job holding things close when a large spread is on the line. Ole Miss has Florida on the road next, and no matter how much they try, they'll already be looking past Vandy coming off their high against Alabama.

Kentucky v. Missouri +2.5 : I like KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. It's at home, Kentucky has played well so far this year, and Mizzou is now 0-3 ATS after being great on the road for several years prior. Missouri is struggling against bad teams, and barely edging out UCONN last week doesn't inspire confidence. I may be a prisoner of the moment here, but it's worth a unit.

Arkansas v. Texas A&M -7.5 : I like TEXAS A&M -7.5 in this game. Were it just 7 points, I'd probably put 2 units on this, but the hook worries me a little. Not enough to not play it, because A&M is miles better than anything Arkansas has played, and they lost to Toledo.

Contrarian Pick:

Auburn v. MS State +1.5 : I like AUBURN -1.5 in this game. If you're a contrarian bettor, this might be a good value play for you. The universe would bet against Auburn right now given what we saw in their prior 3 games. They are 0-3 ATS, they look like garbage, and you'd think they would be huge underdogs. But Vegas is Vegas, and this line looks way off. Plus we have a QB change. They know something is up, and when that happens you should bet with the house instead of the public.

Coinflip games:

Alabama v. Louisiana-Monre +37.5 : ALABAMA -37.5
South Carolina v. UCF +14.5 : SOUTH CAROLINA -14.5

Georgia is unlined this week against Southern, as it should be for that crap game.