Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Tennessee Volunteers v. Florida Gators: Week 4 Analysis

Only one game to cover this week since so many of the games were either against crap teams or lopsided bloodbaths. But this one? This one was a doozy. Sorry in advance Tennessee fans since I'm recapping two of probably the worst losses in recent history, but it was the CBS game of the week and Tennessee was looking for redemption against a down Gator team they hadn't beaten in a decade. That streak lives on at 11 years now after the 4th down Florida heroics gave them the victory.

I've gone over Tennessee's issues before, so I'll recap them in brief here. Dobbs can't really throw the ball well, and the Tennessee offense doesn't put people away. Both those things happened again in this game, and it's the reason they lost. However, the positives for Tennessee fans is that Dobbs was great running the ball, and catching the ball oddly enough. Also, Jalen Hurd really raised his intensity level in the second half and fought for some long runs that got Tennessee the big lead they had.

The big plays for Tennessee were mostly trick plays. The first was a throwback pass to Dobbs, who then took off to the house for a TD. The second was a 4th down Tebow-style jump pass that kept the Tennessee drive moving on to another TD. Both passes were by wide receivers. So Dobbs actually had no touchdown passes in this game (not really shocking to me as a critic of his play). He had a RECEIVING touchdown (very shocking to me), and Jalen Hurd had two running TDs. And I liked the way Hurd played in this game. His yards per carry average wasn't great, but he was backing Florida off the line, and opening up the offense for Dobbs on QB-keeper runs. It's like the Tennessee coaching staff realized their QB was a liability throwing the ball, and instead switched completely to a run-option look for Dobbs with some trick plays. It was a very crazy change, and it almost worked. Almost.

But Florida's QB Will Grier kept the game alive over and over. If you watch Grier play you probably notice two very different things. One, he's got a great arm and at one point made an NFL-style back-shoulder sideline throw at the intermediate level. It's that kind of thing that gives you pause, and makes you think this kid might be something. But second, you notice that he's horrifically inaccurate deep, and at one point that cost him with an interception as he tried to stare down the fly route receiver and drop a touch pass in the bucket. The problem was the bucket happened to be a Tennessee defender.

So Grier looked very shaky early in the game, but so did both offenses. If not for trick plays, the score probably would have been 7-3 Florida, as nobody could convert a 3rd down. At the end of the half it was Tennessee with 1/6 on 3rd down conversions, and Florida with 1/7 on 3rd down. Honestly, it was terrible offensive football, but it was at least entertaining. If anything, Tennessee should probably kick themselves for not putting it away early while Grier was struggling hard, and the Florida running game had essentially one good play that led to a TD. The killer was that Dobbs had a 62 yard run to set themselves up in Florida territory late in the half, and then went 3-and-out from there, settling for a field goal. A touchdown at that point puts them up 21-7 at the break, and getting the ball in the second half first. I don't think Florida comes back from that.

But here's the thing, Florida has a lot of problems, and most of them are on the offensive line. The fact they did come back is almost entirely because Grier was unconscious on 4th downs. If you're not a basketball fan, that is a saying meaning he could make anything happen that he wanted to. In football, it just means you're knocked out, so I felt I should clarify. Anyway, take a look if you get the chance at Florida's O-line. It's pretty awful in pass-protection. Grier was running for his life much of the game, and at one point he was sacked because his right tackle got Ole'd by #9 Derek Barnett, who continues to be a force in the pass rush. Tennessee had 3 sacks in the game, while Florida had 3 as well. Both sides I thought looked like they had room to improve in pass protection big-time, but Florida's was more obvious as they continued to throw the ball late.

How often have I ever seen a team go 5/5 on 4th down conversions? I honestly can't remember other than this game. That was the real difference late. Three guys besides Grier really stepped up in the receiving core. That was #81 Antonio Callaway, and #83 Jake McGee, and #4 Brandon Powell. Down 27 to 14 in the 4th quarter, it was McGee who picked up the third of the 4th down conversions in the game. Then Powell got the 4th later in the drive, and then TD catch later to make it 27-21. But the heart-breaker conversion was all Callaway. He was the guy with less than 2 minutes left, 4th and 13, and the game on the line who made the middle of the field catch, beat two Tennessee defenders, and then streaked down the sideline for the 63-yard score to make it 28-27.

Was it anything special those players were doing? Not really, other than Grier kept escaping and finding guys who were open inside the Tennessee zone. I don't really blame the Tennessee coaches for going slightly conservative to keep the game in front of them except for that last 4th down. It's 4th and 13 and if you get to the QB the game is over. He's not running, you know it's a pass play, and you know he's struggled to stay upright with 3 sacks in the game. You don't play coverage there, you bring the house and force that really crappy O-line who has struggled all game to stop you. That's where you make your stand. Tennessee got a little cautious for those last few drives, including their very boring 3-runs-to-burn-clock offensive possession, and it cost them the game.

So now Florida is 4-0 and Tennessee is 2-2. Is Tennessee done? Absolutely not, I think they are a very tough team who is finding themselves in the running game, and trying to work around their struggles at the QB position with creative coaching. Also, the defense when turned loose is absolutely nasty. With nothing to lose, I think Tennessee will bring more blitzes and start playing like a wounded animal. That makes them extremely dangerous. Plus they are only one game down in an SEC East that is far from decided. Should Tennessee beat Georgia? Suddenly they are back in the race if Florida drops two games.

Is Florida as good as their record? Absolutely not. While Grier survived this game, he was doing it mainly with short, quick passes because his offensive line can't buy him time. The Florida running game with Fred Taylor's son Kelvin Taylor is basically average. They busted one play for 40+ yards, and for the rest of the game it was a slog with 60 yards on 17 carries. That's nothing to write home about. They have some talented tight ends, and Callaway absolutely is a force when he gets the ball in his hands, so in that regard you have to watch out for their passing game. But Grier was still a backup for a reason, and the reason is his accuracy and his stare-downs, similar to other SEC mediocre QBs this season. He's BEGGING at times to turn the ball over, and I think he will a good bit down the stretch.

All in all, I left with the impression that both these teams are still baking in the oven. Florida and Tennessee are both heading in the right directions, but they don't yet have the offensive solutions they need to back up their defensive stars.

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