Each week before the Thursday game (if the SEC is playing in it) I'll release the picks for each week. If there's no Thursday game I'll release the picks on Fridays.
Each pick will be based on a certain amount of units. If you're a betting person, the amount of your average bet is called a unit. So for example, let's say you feel comfortable betting $10 a game normally. That's your 1 unit bet. I'll be ranking these bets by number of units from 1-3. If you're a $10 unit player, a 1 unit bet would be $10, and a 3 unit bet would be $30. Obviously, I'd have more confidence in 3 unit bets than 1 unit bets. I'll also release picks that I think are coinflips, meaning I wouldn't bet these, but if you're forced to pick them in a college pickem pool, or you're a complete degenerate that bets everything, I'll tell you which way I'm leaning. However, on coinflip picks I am basically indicating I don't think there's a true edge on paper. That's not to say some coinflips won't win and some 3-units won't lose, but there's a method to the madness. It's about confidence level over the long-term.
So let's get it started! Since this is Week 1, we have very little real information about these teams. That means I'll be making picks mostly based on the prior 3 season trends, head-to-heads last season, any coaching changes, and offensive key position changes. That being said, there's never going to be more than 1-unit or coinflip plays in Week 1. You don't bet big units when you have little info. That's for later in the season.
I'll give each pick with the Away team versus the Home team, and the home team's spread. The spread, for those of you who don't know, is the amount of points you either add or subtract from a team's score at the end of the game. Think of it like a handicap. For example, if Vanderbilt is playing Kentucky, and Kentucky is -4, that means that Kentucky is a 4 point favorite. Also it means that Vanderbilt is a 4 point underdog. When the game is over, if you bet on Kentucky, and they won 35-30, they won by 5 points. You would win your bet (35 minus 4 is 31, and 31-30 is a win). However, Kentucky only won 33-30, they would have won by 3 points, and you lost (33 minus 4 is 29, and 29-30 is a loss). Remember, if you're betting on favorites, you subtract your spread from their score and then see if they would still have a higher score than the opponent.
(When giving ATS stats, I'm using the last 3 seasons unless otherwise indicated)
1 Unit Plays:
North Carolina v. South Carolina -3.0 : I like SOUTH CAROLINA -3 in this game. SC is 4-1 over the last 3 seasons in close spreads (-3 to +3), and they are 6-3 ATS (against the spread) in non-conference games while UNC is 3-6 in Non-conf, and 0-5 in September games.
UTEP v. Arkansas -33 : I like ARKANSAS -33 in this game. It's a lot of points to lay in this game, but Arkansas is usually good early in the year and they love to prove a point to voters with lots of points. Also UTEP is 4-13 as an underdog ATS.
Arizona State v. Texas A&M -3.5 : I like ARIZONA STATE +3.5 in this game. Texas A&M is a terrible team for betting on historically. They are 9-17 ATS in the last 3 years, and 5-12 as a favorite. Meanwhile, Arizona State is basically .500 in their lined games. Since they are getting points, I'm leaning to the Devils.
Louisiana-Lafayette v. Kentucky -17 : I like KENTUCKY -17 in this game. Kentucky is 6-2 ATS in non-conf, and 5-2 ATS as a favorite. Lafayette is something of an SEC whipping boy that is 0-2 ATS against SEC opponents.
Mississippi State v. Southern Mississippi +23.5 : I like MISSISSIPPI STATE -23.5 in this game. Southern Miss is 8-16 ATS across all their lined games, which is enough to make me lean MS State. Add in the fact MS State is 6-3 ATS on the road and I think it's worth a unit play.
Coin Flips: (pick if you have to)
Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt +2.5 : I like WESTERN KENTUCKY -2.5 in this game. Vanderbilt may not even win 3 games this year as I detailed in the O/U segment, but Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in close spreads. Vanderbilt isn't much better as they are 3-6 in non-conf. Both stink so I wouldn't play this.
Louisiana-Monroe v. UGA -35.5 : I like LOUISIANA-MONROE +35.5 in this game. I don't think it will be close at all, but in betting I don't normally lay more than 5 TDs on the line with a team that has a new QB and a new OC. So I want to see more out of the new Georgia offense before laying that.
Louisville v. Auburn -11 : I like AUBURN -11 in this game. Auburn has a bad habit of being a coinflip at 9-9 as a favorite over the last 3 years, but Louisville is 13-13 ATS against all games. I'm leaning to Auburn simply because I think their offense will outscore Louisville, but this could easily get close.
Bowling Green v. Tennessee -20.5 : I like TENNESSEE -20.5 in this game. Can Tennessee put up 21 points on Bowling Green? Yes. But Bowling Green also has a bad habit of sticking around as an underdog with a 6-3 ATS as an underdog. However, I'd lean Tennessee because it's at home and they will want to make a statement with their new QB early.
New Mexico State v. Florida -37 : I like NEW MEXICO STATE -37 in this game. This is one game I wouldn't touch with real money. I'm leaning NMSt simply for my 5 TD rule, and the fact Florida is completely brand new with a new coaching staff.
Wisconsin v. Alabama -10.5 : I like WISCONSIN +10.5 in this game. Alabama is 6-2 ATS in spreads over 10 and less then 21, but they are 2-7 in non-conference games. Could Alabama win big? Yes. That's why this one is a tough call, but their QB situation worries me when it comes to scoring and Wisconsin is not a pushover.
Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU were all in unlined games as of this coming out, so there will be no picks for them this week.
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