I thought I'd lead this off with a quick predictions thread on the season, and how many teams will go over and under on their season win totals. For those of you that aren't familiar, the over/under is where a casino sets a number of wins, say 9 wins on the regular season, and the gambler predicts whether that team will go over (10 or more) or under (8 or less) in this case. Every major gambling site does these before the beginning of the year, and I don't usually like to bet them because you are almost always at a disadvantage in terms of information, and you don't get your money back until January. But in this case I'll go over my thoughts on each team.
Using Sportsbook.ag lines as of today, here are my predictions for all the SEC teams. (Kentucky and Vanderbilt weren't listed here so I'll use another site for them last)
Alabama - O/U 9.5 wins. My prediction is OVER. I think that Alabama loses 1-2 games this year, and I think it's a combination of Auburn, LSU, Georgia, or MS State. While their road games will be tough, I don't expect them to go worse than 50/50 in that stretch, and I expect them to go undefeated at home.
Arkansas - O/U 8 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Arkansas is always vastly overrated early in the media ranks, then they tank. Arkansas beat LSU and Ole Miss last year, and somehow people forgot they still had 6 losses on the schedule. They will play at least 5 ranked teams in the schedule this year and could lose them all.
Auburn - O/U 8.5 wins. My prediction is OVER. Auburn's East opponent this year is Kentucky, and they have Georgia at home, and Alabama at home. That's a huge advantage for them in terms of schedule. I have Auburn at 9 wins since I think they will struggle at LSU, at A&M, and lose either Bama or Georgia.
Florida - O/U 7 wins. My prediction is OVER. I think 8 wins is actually the number for Florida this year. They will improve slightly, but they still don't have what it takes to beat a rising FSU, LSU, and Ole Miss. However, the East is weak, Tennessee is far from a lock, SC has fallen off, and UGA has problems beating even a bad Florida team.
Georgia - O/U 9 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Georgia is absurdly overrated this year for what they are, and I say that as a fan of the team. New OC, new transfer QB, new center, still working on the defense. But they have Nick Chubb so 9 wins? I'm not buying it. They have Alabama and Auburn on the schedule, a Florida team they always struggle with, a GA Tech team that's actually ranked now, and a rising TN team on the road. Nothing will come easy for these Dawgs. I'm predicting 8 wins or maybe even worse if the wheels come off.
LSU - O/U 8.5 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Where's the offense coming from this year? The brand new QB Brandon Harris everyone is gaga about and Leonard Fournette? If I told you Fournette had 1000 yards rushing last year, you'd think yes. If I told you against Alabama, Auburn, MS State, and Arkansas he had exactly 168 yards in those 4 games, you might think again. I don't think Fournette is the big-time threat people think yet, nor do I think Brandon Harris is ready to put up the points LSU desperately needs to be successful. My guess, 8 wins and just under. They'll lose to some bad teams that make you wonder.
Mississippi State - O/U 7 games. My prediction is a PUSH. I'll say this about MS State, they will score some point this year. I just don't trust their defense in big games, and I think Dak Prescott isn't the answer if you're way behind. MS State's schedule is horrific. They have Auburn and LSU early with a bunch of cupcakes, so they may start 6-2. But the end is Missouri, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. I think they win one of those games. 7 wins total.
Missouri - O/U 7.5 games. My prediction is OVER. I think this is one of the easier one. Missouri gets underrated every year, and for the last two years they won the East. The East isn't THAT much stronger this year, but assume you believe UGA and TN are both great and Mizzou loses. The rest of their schedule is mostly unranked and very winnable. They return their QB (one of the few teams that does) and they always know how to score points. I think this is one of the few I'd actually bet.
Ole Miss - O/U 8.5 games. My prediction is UNDER. Ole Miss has a great defense, but their offense this year is going to fall off a cliff in my mind. Not that it was stellar under Bo Wallace. But with so much going on in the West, I feel this is one of the teams due for a huge step back. I'll say 7-8 wins on the season.
South Carolina - O/U 6.5 games. My prediction is OVER. How the mighty have fallen here. Spurrier shouldn't have a team with an over/under of less than 7 games. But here we are. So the question is if there are 7 wins on this schedule. I think UNC, Kentucky, UCF, Vandy and the Citadel are easy wins. So that's 5. Can they pull two more out of A&M, Tennessee, Florida, Clemson, or Georgia? I think yes. Spurrier always likes to shock you.
Tennessee - O/U 8 games. My prediction is PUSH. Tennessee is going to do better this season, but I don't think they have the strength to fend off Arkansas, OU, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Missouri. I think they lose 4 of those 6 games, and that puts them in the 8 win camp. Which depending on the wins, I think Tennessee fans will be pleased about the season. The question for me is young Josh Dobbs, who Tennessee faithful are very high on, and I'm not convinced he's ready for SEC primetime just yet.
Texas A&M - O/U 7.5 games. My prediction is UNDER. I count 6 ranked teams alone on A&M's schedule, plus another two SEC West rivals that won't be pushovers. Nothing looks easy for A&M this year and while they make shock a few people with some very key wins, this still looks like a 7 win year for the Aggies to me.
This last two I'm pulling from CBS sports since the totals weren't listed on my site:
Kentucky - O/U 6 wins. My prediction is UNDER. Kentucky isn't ready yet. They're never ready. It's why not matter what they do, people never take them really seriously. This year is no different. I'll say 5 wins, and they miss the bowls barely.
Vanderbilt - O/U 3 wins. My prediction is UNDER. This Vandy team may not win 2 games this season. It's that bad, and their schedule doesn't let up. Western Kentucky is no joke for this Vandy team. They could beat Austin Peay, and maybe Middle Tennessee or Houston. That's about it honestly. They are as non of a non-factor as you can get this year.
As for the SEC Champions Picture? Here are those picks:
West Champion - Alabama
East Champion - Missouri
SEC Champion - Alabama +180 (that's the money line for the bet)
It might be boring, but you know what? I don't think many people besides Alabama and LSU if their offense comes together look good enough to win this thing. If you're feeling frisky and think Mizzou might sneak up and finally win the Championship game, they are +2200 on the money line. So, it's not a bad long-shot play.
So, those are the picks! Tune in tomorrow when I pick the SEC games against the spread for Week 1! It should be hilarious.
No comments:
Post a Comment