Georgia plays Auburn - Meaningless because the East is decided.
Florida plays South Carolina - Only meaningful if Florida loses because it would affect them in the college football playoff, but this Florida team as composed with a backup QB isn't winning the SEC.
Kentucky plays Vandy - This should be LAUGHABLE and meaningless.
Arkansas plays LSU - The Alabama loss means LSU has to win this, and Alabama has to take a loss.
BYU plays Missouri - Relevant because Established Racism plays newly admonished Racism.
North Texas plays Tennessee - Really?
Western Carolina plays A&M - Only funny because A&M might lose if they play like they did against Auburn.
So that leaves us Alabama and Mississippi State as the only game with true meaning left in the SEC this weekend. Oh and it gets way way worse the week after this on what I'm dubbing "The Late Week SEC Bake Sale." You'll see what I mean when you look at the Week 12 schedule. It will make you sick as a CFB fan.
I'll skip the analysis of Alabama as a whole and point out what they did in the LSU game. They destroyed LSU. Make no bones about it, it was strength on strength. Alabama's run defense versus LSU's running attack. And in battles of offense vs. defensive strength, defense usually wins. That was no different here. Here's what I wrote from last week on why Bama would win:
"The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed."That's exactly what happened. It was a real question of which team would show up in terms of domination, but I had no doubts what would have to happen for Alabama to claim victory. Alabama got up 10-0 in the second quarter, and Leonard Fournette had less than 40 yards in the game all day. Game Over, Man! You can't win as an LSU team throwing the ball. They haven't had a game-changer QB in what seems like a decade.
Moving forward, Alabama plays Mississippi State, which you probably haven't paid much attention to this season. And with good reason. Despite being 17th ranked in the country (which is a glorious indication of how hilariously bad teams are this season at the top 25 spots) Mississippi State has flubbed their only two meaningful games. They lost to ranked LSU and ranked A&M. Their wins are over Southern Miss, NW State, Auburn, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Kentucky, and Missouri. Go ahead and tell me what impresses you about those wins. Answer? NADA.
So with that in mind, Mississippi State is about to play what I consider to be the most complete team in the country as it stands right now. A team that shuts down running attacks and is basically only vulnerable on turnovers and the passing game. Can Mississippi State hang with such a team? The answer might shock you.
Mississippi State passing game is 2nd in the SEC only to Ole Miss, the only team to beat Alabama. They are careful with the ball, sporting a 22-1 TD-INT rate, and almost 300 yards a game through the air. Yes, a lot of that is the competition they play. Yes, they've lost the ranked games they played. However, the loss to LSU was by 2 points at home and their offense is one of the few that's capable of making comebacks and overcoming deficits because they can score. They have an actual QB that's been around the block in Dak Prescott.
Downsides? They haven't beaten Alabama since 2007. Their defense is worse than Georgia and LSU against the run, teams that couldn't even compete with Derrick Henry running them over. They don't cause a ton of turnovers, which is usually Alabama's Achilles heel. Oh, and in general nobody actually believes that Mississippi State is as good as their ranking, or has a chance in hell in this game. Probably the players don't even believe it, and if they get down by 3 scores, they'll quit. So let's see what it will take to win.
Alabama Wins If:
It plays Alabama football. Derrick Henry goes for 100+ and a TD, they get some good defensive stops. Lane Kiffin dials up some shots down the field to Ridley when nobody is looking for them. And of course, they don't turn the ball over. Key point there as always. They don't have to be special. This isn't a tough game for them if they play smart football.
Mississippi State Wins If:
Dak Prescott turns into Superman and goes for 350+ in the air, with 2 passing TDs and a rushing TD. He has to be mobile and he has to confuse the Bama defense. The secondary needs to be exposed after he looks like he's running and then takes the top off the defense. Oh and the defense has to sell out to stop Derrick Henry from controlling the ground game. Stack the box and make Coker have to put the game on his shoulders.
All in all, this is one of the last two challenges Alabama has left. The last one if a very mediocre Auburn team, but both are on the road and the last one is the biggest rivalry. We'll see if Alabama can pass this test to put Auburn between themselves and a title shot.
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