SEC Picks Week 10!

One pick under last week. Down 5 units on the season, so it's time to get a little more aggressive. I'm going to make a few more bold moves since we only have a few weeks left of picks. Obviously, more risk, but the rewards can be higher, and we have more data to work with. However, this season has been crazy so what looks like an obvious play has been anything but. That's why it's all about playing the systems and sticking to the numbers.

Four Unit Play:

South Carolina @ Tennessee -17: I like TENNESSEE -17. South Carolina stinks. Tennessee has found their offensive stride and is starting to ramp up their confidence. South Carolina has no real coach and no real QB plus they are on the road. This is my number one pick of the week. Four units.

Two Unit Plays:

Vandy @ Florida -21: I like VANDY +21. Florida has been crushing it ATS with a 5-2 record, but the lines have mostly been close. Now? Vegas is trying to push the limits and force people to make a hard decision. Vandy is 4-2 ATS as the underdog, and Florida is 0-1 when the spread gets this high, 3-4 when it's this high over the last 3 years. Two units.

Auburn @ Texas A&M -7: I like TEXAS A&M -7. Eventually Auburn will cover a spread, but they are 1-6 on the year, and they are 0-3 on the road. Texas A&M has bucked their trend and been 4-2 as a favorite. Until that changes, I'm going against Auburn the rest of the way. Two units.

One Unit Plays:

Kentucky @ UGA -14.5: I like KENTUCKY +14.5. Both Kentucky and UGA are horrific against the spread this year. I'm not better much on this one, but when given a 2TD hook my gut usually says take the points. Also, with UGA not knowing who is the QB? I'm worried the UGA offense will continue to have issues. One unit.

Arkansas @ Ole Miss -10: I like ARKANSAS +10. Ole Miss has been great at home ATS, but they've also played no offenses of consequence. Arkansas is a good running team with a decent defense, so I like a closer game. Not a huge play though. One unit.


LSU @ Alabama -7: I like LSU +7. LSU isn't used to being an underdog, and in fact they haven't been one all season. But Bama has been awful at home. AWFUL. 0-5 ATS awful. They lost to Ole Miss at home and have struggled in every game there so far this year. It's supposed to rain also, and Leonard Fournette is coming to town. Small play because of the magnitude, my rule is never bet heavy on a game of the week. The lines are tight for a reason. One unit.