There's only one game that will determine the SEC for sure this week, and that's Alabama v. LSU in Tuscaloosa. A true night game matchup that will in all likelihood either knock LSU or Alabama out of contention for the SEC West title. So how do these teams match up against each other?
LSU Strengths:
Obviously Leonard Fournette is the number one strength for LSU. If you take him away, I don't think that LSU is remotely as good without him, or even in contention for anything of consequence. What makes Fournette so special? Well, for starters he's big. 6'1" and 230 pounds is no joke for a running back. Second, he's faster than most defensive backs. Watch his tapes and look at Fournette's game-breaking plays where he gets into the secondary. He's turning on the jets and those speedsters at much smaller weights can't catch him. Third, he's got undeniable bowl-you-over power in his game. Take a look at the Auburn tape and watch Fournette shed blockers like your mama shaking off a winter shawl as she comes into the house.
But the LSU defense isn't to be denied their due either. While they aren't as good as say Alabama, Missouri, or Florida, they are still right up there with those defenses in terms of overall speed and power. They are amazing against the run, second to only Alabama in the conference. They are a ball-hawking defense that thrives on turnovers, 2nd in the conference in turnover margin. Overall, they look like they can swarm to the ball easily and make the big tackles in space. It's a challenge for Alabama's run-heavy offense.
LSU Weaknesses:
The LSU passing game is almost non-existent. For good reason since they have Leonard Fournette, they aren't really required to pass much. They've yet to run into an opponent who can stop their rushing attack, and that included a very good defense in Florida. The key to evaluating LSU's pass game isn't to look at their yards per game or attempts per game, both of which are dead last in the SEC. Rather, look at the overall yards per attempt, which is tied for 3rd in the SEC, and their TD-INT rate which is 9-0. LSU hasn't thrown any interceptions this year, so while this is a weakness in terms of the fact it hasn't really been tested, I'm not sure it can't be effective.
LSU has a penalty problem. That's another big weakness for them, and it's yet to bite them in the butt. They average over 7 penalties a game (dead last in the SEC), and while that doesn't matter against Western Kentucky, it would be a huge problem against Alabama. Also, they've had issues getting teams off the field on 3rd down, in addition to actually getting a pass-rush on the QB. Alabama may have to adjust their overall attack against LSU, because the way to beat them is to throw the ball. Since they have issues getting pressure, QB Jacob Coker should have more time to throw for Alabama, and that's bad news if Lane Kiffin is scheming correctly. And remember, Lane Kiffin is ALWAYS scheming.
Alabama Strengths:
In a word, Balance. Alabama is one of the most offensively balanced teams in the SEC, and that balance makes them extremely hard to defend. If you push them on the run, they will open up the passing game with great receivers like Calvin Ridley and Richard Mullaney. If you decide to blitz and play close on pass protections, they can pound you right up the middle with Derrick Henry in the rushing game. There is no huge weakness in this Alabama offense, but there's also no one completely head-and-shoulders talent that outshines the rest of the team either.
Defensively, Alabama prides itself in taking away your running game. This will be their pentultimate test of will against the best running back in the country by my estimation. But as Florida found out the hard way, stopping Leonard Fournette is not a simple task. If they can, that plays into their strategy of commanding the front line, eating up possessions, and forcing the other team to take chances. Once Alabama gets a lead, it's very VERY hard to take away. They are great at closing out opponents and imposing their will.
Alabama Weaknesses:
As I said in a prior article, the main one for Alabama is turnovers which I won't belabor too much. However, they are playing one of the best turnover margin teams in the league, so I would be remiss if I didn't mention that LSU can make this very one-sided if Alabama gets careless with the ball. Also, Alabama's passing attack can be inconsistent. At times they can beat you deep and make you look ridiculous. Other times Coker will throw into double coverages and make horrible decisions. It's sort of a coin flip on which QB shows up possession by possession, which is why Nick Saban would want to run the ball first.
LSU Wins If:
Fournette goes for 200+ yards and 2 TDs, and the LSU defense gets 2 turnovers out of Alabama. I don't believe that LSU can go toe-to-toe with this Alabama team and not capitalize on turnovers if they hope to win. Hat on a hat, strength on strength, something has to give in these types of games.
Alabama Wins If:
The defense holds down Fournette early and gets a 10 point lead, forcing LSU to pass. If that happens, turn off the game because it's over. Once LSU has to shift the gameplan away from Fournette as option #1 or play catchup? They are doomed.
Picks on Friday, if you're still paying attention to those in order to mock my silliness.
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