Week 10 Review: The SEC East Projections

We're 2/3 of the way through the conference season, so instead of doing a film review of the CBS game this week (which was a boring defensive slog in my mind), I'd rather take a look at the path to the dome for several of the remaining teams that have a shot. Let's take a look at the options.

TENNESSEE:

Yes, Tennessee is still alive in the SEC East, although they need a lot of help. Here's their remaining games on the schedule:

Kentucky at home
Missouri at home
Vandy on the road

Those are fairly simple games, but then again Tennessee lost to South Carolina and they are injured to hell and back. There's a scenario where Tennessee can have a loss and make it to the dome. However, it's much easier if they win out. Let's project the scenarios:

Have 2 losses on the remaining schedule: OUT
Lose to Kentucky: OUT (this would give Kentucky 5 SEC wins)
Win against Kentucky and either Mizzou or Vandy, and Florida 1 of their remaining 2 games: OUT
Win against Kentucky and either Mizzou or Vandy, Florida loses their final 2: OUT (because South Carolina would have beaten Florida, getting them to 4 wins, and they have H2H on Tennessee)
Win against Kentucky and Vandy, lose to Mizzou. Florida loses both games, Georgia beats Auburn: IN (via 5-way 4 win tiebreaker)
Tennessee wins out, Florida wins out: OUT (Florida has 6 wins)
Tennessee wins out, Florida loses a game: IN (this is the only scenario that works for Tennessee)

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Yes, South Carolina can win the East as well. There's several scenarios where this happens though, and it's complicated.

Beat Florida, and Tennessee loses a game to somebody not named Kentucky, Georgia loses to Auburn: IN (South Carolina then has 4 wins, H2H over 4 win Florida and Tennessee teams)
Beat Florida, Tennessee loses to Vandy AND Mizzou: IN (South Carolina wins a tiebreaker going up to 6 teams which would be insane, depending on Georgia v. Auburn)


KENTUCKY:

Yes, Kentucky is still in it. They have to do one thing just like South Carolina, also very complicated.

Beat Tennessee, and Florida takes 2 losses to South Carolina and LSU: IN (Kentucky has 5 wins, everybody else has 4 or less)

FLORIDA:

Florida has the simplest route: Win out and you're IN (they would have 6 SEC wins)

Georgia, Vandy, and Missouri are eliminated.