It’s been several weeks of looking at film now, and I’ve had
several requests to switch up the tactics on the blog a bit. I tend to agree
that after a while, just going over film seems redundant, so starting this week
I’m taking my game film looks and projecting more on forward looking previews
of the upcoming biggest games. With that in mind, I’m starting with the matchup
between Alabama and Tennessee this weekend on CBS at 3:30PM EST.
Alabama Strengths:
Alabama is coming off a rather simple looking win against a
Texas A&M team that never stood a chance against their running attack or
their defense. And those elements of rushing and defense just happen to be the
strongest points of Alabama right now. In the game against A&M, Derrick
Henry went off for 236 yards on 32 carries and 2 TDs. In the first TD he
scored, he busted loose for 55 yards and made the A&M defense look
absolutely ridiculous.
But the true ridiculousness was what the Alabama secondary
put on A&M’s passing attack. I’ve said before that I think the secondary
was an issue. They still may have problems against a higher tempo team, but
right now they are coming together in a hurry, and a lot of that is the play of
Minkah Fitzpatrick who had 2 pick-6’s in the game. Couple that with the fact that
the Alabama run defense has been stingy all year, and you’re left with very few
options on how to advance the ball.
Alabama Weaknesses:
Yes, they have them. For one, turnovers have been an issue
with the Tide before, and it’s the reason they lost that game against Ole Miss.
Alabama’s 12th in most turnovers given away in the SEC, but they are
4th in turnover margin because they can take so many back on their
own side. However, if you can get Alabama to fumble the ball, or force their QB
Jake Coker to make some bad downfield decisions, you can beat them handily by
capitalizing on the errors. Still, Coker is improving game to game, and his
downfield passing attack has been getting better since torching UGA in that downpour.
Against A&M he was basically meaningless because the Aggies
couldn’t stop the run, so they never really had to use him as a threat.
However, he can make mistakes if pushed and pressured. I’m not sure that Coker
can’t go from asset to liability in the blink of an eye.
The other big weakness for Alabama is something I don’t
usually see out of a Nick Saban team, and that’s penalties. Did you know that
Alabama is 13th in the SEC in most penalty yards a game, followed by
LSU at 14th? And yet those teams both look like they will be playing
each other for the SEC West title. By contrast, their opponent Tennessee is
least penalized, and it hasn’t helped them defeat many SEC teams this year. So
perhaps it’s an overblown stat, but I can’t help but think that as you advance,
every penalty becomes larger. And undisciplined teams make more mistakes.
Tennessee Strengths:
Honestly, Tennessee’s biggest strength in my eyes is that
they know how to move the ball well. That doesn’t translate to scoring points
as often as it should, but they 4th in the SEC in yardage and
extremely balanced between the run and pass. Jalen Hurd can get tough yardage
when they need it, and Josh Dobbs is mobile enough to make people miss in the
middle of the field on the run as well. Plus, if Josh can get his first read
open, he’s more than capable of making the early throw before taking off.
Tennessee Weaknesses:
There’s a lot more of these unfortunately. Get Dobbs to a
second read and watch the carnage. Pressure him all day and see how fast that
confidence from the UGA game crumbles. Also, Hurd has plenty of muscle to get
extra yards, but he’s not Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb that can create space
and make everyone on a good defense miss. He’s a good running back right now
with the potential to be great if he can get some more blocking help.
The defense for Tennessee is also a problem in that they
can’t get other teams off the field consistently enough. Tennessee’s 13th
in yardage, tied for 12th in points against. And the horrifying
thing is they haven’t really played that many good offenses yet. Georgia proved
they aren’t worth a damn against a Missouri team that held them to 9 points,
and they managed to put up 31 on that Tennessee defense.
Also, the Tennessee team has been notorious this season for
not being able to close out games. Georgia was the exception to the rule as
Dobbs had a career day shredding that Dawg defense. But against OU, Florida,
and Arkansas? Fourth quarter failures and two TD blown leads were the norm. The
upside for Tennessee is that Alabama isn’t likely to give them a big lead to
lose. So maybe that’s a positive given how they came back on Georgia.
Alabama Wins If:
They run the ball down Tennessee’s throat and don’t turn it
over. Simple as that. You don’t need to fling it much against Tennessee to beat
their defense, and Alabama isn’t know for doing that. I seriously doubt that
Hurd is going to find any space against this Bama front, since nobody else has.
With that in mind, it’s doing to fall to Dobbs to win the game for Tennessee,
and I’ve seen what happens when a mediocre QB has to try and get
one-dimensional against Alabama. It’s pick-6 city all day long.
Tennessee Wins if:
Jake Coker gets cocky and starts making mistakes, and they
sell out to stop Derrick Henry. Tennessee will only win this game if it’s ugly.
I’m talking like 16-13 kind of ugly. Tennessee needs for Alabama to try to
grind, and make life hell on that strategy. They want the ball in Coker’s hands
and they want Lane Kiffin to get frustrated enough to try something dumb. All
that CAN happen, and if it does you just need Dobbs to make some plays late
like he did in the UGA game. Basically, Tennessee wants the ball with 2 minutes
left and a chance to win the game with a TD. IF that happens? I think they can
get it.
Picks on Friday, I’ll let you know which way I’m leaning
against the spread. This has the potential to be a fun game to watch, or a
complete asswhipping you turn off in the 3rd quarter. We’ll know by
halftime I think.
No comments:
Post a Comment