I'll start by saying that if Ole Miss didn't completely crap out last week, I would have been up 6 units on my picks. Instead, I was even. Again. So frustrating. I won't be even this week though, because I'm picking an odd number of games. Time to break that streak and get on the winning side!
There's a lot of odd spreads this week, so we're going to keep the action lighter than most.
2 Unit plays:
Georgia @ Tennessee +3 - I like GEORGIA -3 in this game. I'm not sure why the line is so close, but I think it's because Georgia got smashed in their last game and confidence is low. However, Tennessee is dead last in the SEC in defensive yardage, and 9th against the run. Given that Tennessee has struggled to close games, I think Georgia can get the win and the cover here.
1 Unit plays:
Florida @ Missouri +4 - I like FLORIDA -4 in this game. While Missouri found a better QB against South Carolina, several teams have proven they can move the ball on the Gamecocks. Moving it on Florida is a different animal, and Will Grier the Florida QB is riding higher than he's ever ridden before. The short passing game is the difference in this one.
Arkansas @ Alabama -16.5 - I like ALABAMA -16.5 in this game. I hate the spread in this game or it would be 2 units, but any time you have more than 14 points against Arkansas, you have to take pause. Their biggest loss is 11. However, they've only played teams with high passing attacks and very little running offense. They also haven't played a huge defensive line yet either. This could be their first taste of a beatdown.
South Carolina @ LSU -19.5 - I like LSU -19.5 in this game. The spread would have been -13.5 in Columbia, but it's much larger here and therefore takes this to a 1-unit play. Still, South Carolina was on the receiving end of a butt-kicking by UGA, who has a very similar offensive style to LSU. And LSU's defense is even better.
Ole Miss and MS State are playing garbage, while Auburn, Vandy, and Kentucky are all on off-weeks.
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