Apparently, the Gators had the flu for this game. If that's what the flu can do for your team, I hope the Bulldogs catch it just in time for the annual Cocktail Party. Alas, I think that storyline was probably overblown, because the group that looked like it had the flu was the Ole Miss offensive line. Which is really bizarre because it was supposed to be the Gators patchwork offensive line that struggled. Not so in this blowout that saw the Gators up 38-3 before Ole Miss got a garbage TD late.
Let's start by looking at the Gators. Defensively, I think you know what they are by now. The one thing that the Gators can hang their hat on is having some big push up front and their pass rush is relentless. One of their biggest threats, #90 Jonathan Bullard, is an absolute game-wrecker in the middle and on the edge. He's huge, 6-3 283 lbs., and he's experienced as a senior. If you don't game plan for him, you're going to be in huge trouble, and Ole Miss was in huge trouble. Add to that #94 Bryan Cox getting in on the fumble action, and it was a two-man wrecking crew getting to Chad Kelly all night long.
The Gators held the previously high-flying Rebels to just 10 points, 5-14 on 3rd down, and 4 turnovers. That's good enough to win almost any game, but the Gators decided to have the best offensive night of their lives as well. Will Grier was out of his mind passing the ball hitting almost everything he threw, 24-29 with 4 TDs and 271 yards. Now, if you just look at those numbers you'd think BEST QB IN THE SEC RIGHT NOW!
But you'd be dead wrong. Grier has several really fundamental flaws in his game, and it's only a matter of time until somebody (I'm very much looking at you LSU) completely exploits them. Start by watching the way Grier throws the ball. I'm not kidding when I say that 80% of the time I watched him pass, he's either jumping or throwing off his back foot. The kid's footwork is horrific, and once you notice it, it's the only thing you'll see. The first TD is a great example of this. Grier is about to get popped right in the middle, so he throws deep over the middle off his back foot into double coverage. It's the same play that 95% of the time leads to an interception. In this case though, Ole Miss's vaunted land shark defense completely over pursued, and got beat deep. Senior DB Mike Hilton was the one who messed it up, and I can only assume it was because the throw was so out of place he got confused.
It doesn't stop there with Grier though, he's getting most of his yardage on short and middle level throws. The Jim McElwain offense relys heavily on TE play, and they run formations with them bunched in tight sets quite often. Note if you are playing the Gators, Will Grier is not adept throwing the ball deep. Why? Because he's off his back foot all the time. So there's no reason to worry about really deep coverage most of the time (unless you completely botch safety coverage, see prior paragraph) because he underthrows it constantly, and because the Gator offensive line won't give him time to do it. Instead, the tendency is to throw within the first 2 seconds to a hot read, and then watch the fireworks.
This leads me to Ole Miss's defense. Holy hell Ole Miss D-Coordinator, I'd seriously consider firing you for this gameplan. Even I picked up on the fact that about one quarter in to the game, it's mainly just Florida throwing to tight-ends and screens and middle-level short passes. But what did they do? THEY KEPT PLAYING SOFT ZONE. It was maddening. I'm screaming at the TV that they need to man the heck up and get on the line, because they were getting dinked and dunked to death by Grier. And finally they got burned on the third TD because #30 AJ Moore took a horrific angle on a crossing route, Grier dumped him the ball 8 yards down the field, and the rest was watching the Gators Brandon Powell run 77 yards as the announcers blared, "IF HE'S EVEN, HE'S LEAVING!"
And yet, Ole Miss wouldn't cover the tight ends. They wouldn't play tight on the line in man. They would run free from the line with 5-6 yard passes, over and over and over again. The Gators running game is okay but it's far from impressive. They only had 84 yards on 34 attempts. That's less than 2.5 per carry. In fact, Florida's running offense is rated 12th in the conference. So why would I even worry about it as a DC? I'd plan my entire attack on making Grier think, and throw off his back foot right to my guys. Instead, it looked like Ole Miss didn't play enough coverage, went too soft, and got burned by the volume passing attack.
But the game wouldn't have gone wrong if not for all the Ole Miss offensive mistakes. This actually rivaled the Alabama game in terms of hideous self-inflicted wounds, expect this time is was Ole Miss on the receiving end. The Football Gods giveth, and they cruelly taketh away inside the Swamp. It started with a really bad exchange between QB Chad Kelly and his running back, the ball popping straight into the air and right into a Florida defender's hands. It got worse in the next possessions as they had a drive killing snap over Kelly's head that went 15 yards the wrong direction. Then, Ole Miss after a really long drive, they bogged down in the red zone and tried a field goal down 13-0, and missed it. Much like the Georgia game, domino after domino kept falling until eventually Ole Miss was playing in a mess of their own design.
But if you think Grier was the better QB in this game, you're nuts. Chad Kelly is amazingly talented, and he was the singular thing that was working for Ole Miss on this entire night. His offensive line constantly hung him out to dry. I counted 18 times when they completely outright missed tackles, or in some cases when a line rusher came free because two linemen were blocking the same guy! It's okay to do a double-team if everyone is accounted for. When they aren't, you look like morons. That was the real disaster for Ole Miss, and that's the one thing that can be a huge issue going for them long term. When they run into a fast defense that can abuse the line on the pass rush? They are in some big trouble.
Still, Kelly went 26-40 for 269, 1 TD and 1 INT, plus 40 yards on the ground. In a loss. He was the lead rusher as well. When I watch Kelly play I'm impressed not only by how tough the kid is running the ball and escaping the absolute disaster of a line he was playing behind, but I'm also amazed that he's one of the few QBs in the SEC who can make a read. His feet are always moving, he's in good positions in the pocket when there is one, and he can go through a full progression. He actually looks like what you'd think of as an NFL-style passer. He's not there yet obviously, but the tools are there for him to keep improving. And why not? He's the nephew of famed NFL QB Jim Kelly, so he probably knows exactly where to go for great passing tips. Plus he has another year left of eligibility to continue to get better.
Is Ole Miss suddenly bad after beating a great Alabama team? Was that a fluke? If you believe that you're an idiot. They have probably the best QB in the SEC, the best receiver in the SEC in Treadwell (who they absolutely didn't use enough), and one of the best defenders in the country in Robert Nkimdiche. But Florida had the better plan and it they won the game because it their coaching approaching and execution. Ole Miss has all the pieces to be spectacular if they can make some adjustments in the coaching department. And I absolutely do question their coaching decisions, and their approach. Especially not defending the line and going into soft zone.
At some point as the Ole Miss coaches, you had to realize the running game was not working, yet they refused to abandon it even down 25-0. Ole Miss actually got to the goal line at one point, and instead of passing like what got them there, they ran 3 straight plays right into the teeth of the Florida defense. Stupid. And then they kicked a field goal? You're down 25-0, and you're one of the better 4th down teams in the conference, and you...KICKED A FIELD GOAL? How gutless is that? The coaches need to reevaluate why they are out there if that's the best you can do. What? Afraid of a shutout? Get real, you go for the TD. And for that matter after you kicker missed the first short one, I'm shocked it was even on the table as an option.
Ole Miss has 2 cupcakes before they play Texas A&M, and I can't wait to see how they rebound in that game. Florida has Missouri and LSU on the road next, and I believe fully that Missouri sets up completely as a trap game for Florida. They are fast, they are well-coached, and they have suddenly found a QB over at Missouri that looks like he's not just a gun-slinging idiot. That might be more of a game than the analysts think.
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