It's that time again. Time for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! But unlike the last few years, this game will likely determine the winner of the SEC East instead of Mizzouri back-dooring their way to the Georgia Dome.
I'm hearing a lot of comments about how Georgia has no chance in this game, and that Florida is going to stomp them, and how many fans are selling their tickets. I've been going to the game for 15 years, so I can understand the sentiment. The walk out of Jacksonville Stadium after a loss is unlike any walk in college football. It's horrifically tragic as you shuffle past the Florida fans screaming all kinds of Hell at you, and another year of knowing your season is likely over. But the win? The walking out win is just as opposite of a high. Fans chanting it's great to be a Georgia Bulldog all the way down the ramps as you spill out into the streets to "destroy some property tonight." In the words of the departed Larry Munson.
But this isn't an article about why I'm going to the game, and I am. Again. This is a preview of the game and why I think it's closer than many fans who've given up might believe. For starters, Vegas has set the line at -3 in favor of Florida, which means that the money setters don't think this is a blowout. Now many of you will say that Vegas also set the Alabama line with Georgia as a favorite, but remember that was before Georgia had played a single opponent that was worth a damn, and Alabama was coming off a direct loss. Vegas sets the line based on expectation early, and on results later.
Outside of Vegas, let's take a look at some of the factors in the game.
Quarterbacks:
Georgia has Greyson Lambert, the much maligned up-and-down transfer that's often proving to be a major liability throwing the ball against good defenses. Florida is on their second-string QB, Treon Harris, who just happened to be the QB that destroyed Georgia in that ass-whipping last year. Normally, I'd say that the more experienced QB would give Georgia an edge, but anybody who has watched Greyson play outside the South Carolina game knows that's not true. Greyson on film has the deer-in-the-headlights look when things start to go wrong, and his fatal flaw is that he starts to get happy feet and short-arm passes into the legs of receivers or the dirt. Florida's defense is certainly strong enough to give him a headache, but more on that later.
Harris could barely throw the ball when he played against Georgia last year. He was mostly a mobile threat who was helping the Gators run for 400+ yards on the Dawgs. Now? I watched him play in the LSU game, and even though he came out on the losing end, he looks like a much improved passer. Yes, he's still mobile, but he's using that to his advantage in the passing game rather than just a primary ability. Several plays feature Harris on the bootleg rollout, where he can survey the downfield receivers and make throws on the run. He's got a good enough arm to hit his guys in stride, or pull it down and take off with his speed on the outside. It will be Hell on the Georgia defense trying to contain this kid. ADVANTAGE: Florida.
Runningbacks:
Nick Chubb's knee isn't going to be better any time soon, which means that Sony Michel is now the primary back for UGA. That's a downgrade from Chubb, and there's no way to sugar-coat that. However, Sony is a good runner in his own right, and he's very shifty where Chubb can just bust one right over the the top of you. Shifty may be better against this defense, because the Florida bigs aren't going to get bowled over any time soon. Still Sony can turn the corner with the best of them, and if he gets lose, nobody will catch him.
Florida will throw Kelvin Taylor, son of pro Fred Taylor, at the Dawgs. While I loved the pedigree, I've been completely unimpressed by the kid every time I've seen him play. And with good reason. To put it mildly, Taylor will only get you as many yards as are blocked. That means that when the hole is there, he's hitting it, but he's not the type of back who makes many people miss. It shows up in his stats too, as he's only a 3.6 yards per carry guy as the primary ball-carrier. However, in short yardage scenarios near the goal loan or on conversions, Taylor can very much get the job done. He's got the TDs to prove it. Still, I think Georgia has the better back even as the backup. ADVANTAGE: Georgia
Receivers:
Georgia has Malcolm Mitchell. And that's about it. The rest of the receivers have been hot garbage for the most part, and made Lambert look way worse than he should when he's holding the ball too long. Terry Godwin sort of emerged as a target against Missouri, but that's because Missouri was trying to shut down Mitchell, who is the only real home run threat the Dawgs have.
Florida has Demarcus Robinson, Antonio Callaway, Jake McGee and Brandon Powell. None of them are better than Mitchell, but all of them are better than anything else that UGA will put out on the field. They run decent routes, manage to get to the middle of the zone effectively, and they can make life much easier for Harris as a group. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Defense:
Do I really need to go into depth? Pick any game and watch Florida's defense. Then watch the trainwreck that is Georgia on defense the second they face an opponent with a winning record. Even against the best runningback in the league, Florida managed to keep the game close and "contain" Leonard Fournette to a mild 180 yards and 2 TDs. But the game came down to a fake field goal. And Florida's defense is giving up 18 points a game against winning teams. Georgia is giving up 38 a game. ADVANTAGE: Florida
Florida wins if:
They run the ball down Georgia's throat and use Treon Harris in a run-pass option that keeps the Georgia defenders confused all day. Which hopefully won't be easy since Georgia remembers all too well how many running yards they gave up last year. Make no mistake, Georgia can't score enough points on Florida if they can put up 28 on the board. Their defense will cover the rest, and it should be close enough that they will have to.
Georgia Wins if:
They turn Florida over, and Greyson Lambert has the game of his life. Yes, it's going to take that I think. I don't believe an average performance by the QB will win this game. I also don't think it's impossible either if the UGA receivers can actually catch the ball. I've seen Lambert in games look like he knows exactly what he wants to do, but he needs the support of his ground game and his play-caller to not put him in terrible positions. I think Florida knows that Georgia wants to run, and they'll do everything to shut that down, making Lambert beat them. And to do that, Lambert will have to have a big day moving the chains, and converting in the end zone.
Picks on Thursday this time, since I'm heading out of town. And hopefully I won't make the mistake of picking Missouri anymore, who gave Vandy their first SEC win in forever. Idiots. Not that I'm bitter.
Ok, maybe a little.
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