Hello there Aggies. I speak from several years of experience living in Texas that I think of yall as that strange cult down in College Station. I had good friends of mine that would head to college for a year at Texas A&M, and come back weirdos. But if there's one thing Texas as a state knows it's football, and A&M put together some great years before hitting the skids in 2014. Now, most of the shine has come off the head coach Kevin Sumlin, several top players have transferred out of the program, and Johnny Football ain't walking through those doors again.
A&M last year was a victim of two things. First the middle of their schedule was insanely brutal. Second, they had 3 QBs get significant snaps, and then two them transfer out. Any time you have to play 3 QBs, something isn't right, and something wasn't right last year when the Aggies fell apart in the second half of the season. Kyle Allen hated it so much at A&M he transferred to Houston. Kyler Murray hated is so much he transferred to Oklahoma. For SEC fans, that would be like two Georgia QBs hating it so much they transferred to Georgia Tech and Tennessee. It's a kick in the face on every level.
And these weren't bad QBs at all. Kyle Allen was actually really good, 2200 yards, 56% completion, 17 TDs and only 7 picks. The interceptions are slightly high, but pretty forgivable in an offense where you're flinging the ball 283 times. And let's remember that 3 of those picks came in one game against Alabama. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray was okay and even he left the program. So who is going to play quarterback at A&M? The answer is former Oklahoma player and now transfer Trevor Knight. You may remember Trevor Knight from that time on College Gameday when Katy Perry said he was hot and told him to call her. I would have broke my neck lunging for the phone.
Where was I? Oh right, Trevor Knight is the QB at A&M for one year, which should provide more stability than they saw in 2015. Here's the thing about Trevor, he's got a great arm and a really terrible brain for decision-making. Which leads Trevor to throw a ton of interceptions that you can't really afford in relation to his TDs. That's why he lost the job at OU and ended up at A&M. In his career, Knight has 25 TDs and 19 picks. When you get that dangerously close to 50-50 on the TD-INT rate, you are sprinting toward a bench seat faster than Usain Bolt in the 100m. Trevor will have to be more careful with the football in the SEC, because turning it over to meatgrinder running teams like LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee? They'll just run the ball and keep your butt on the sidelines wondering why you didn't call Katy sooner.
The RB situation at A&M was one guy last year, and he was really REALLY good. Tra Carson went for 1165 yards for an average of 4.8 a carry, with 7 TDs. Yes the TDs are low because A&M didn't have a great offense, but the rushing total puts him 5th in the SEC behind just a few guys like Fournette, Hurd, and Henry. Not bad company for the young man. Guess what though? Like all great things in the SEC last year, it seems the NFL scooped them up quickly. Tra Carson is now on the Bungles, and that means a new RB will have to step up for A&M. The two candidates so far are junior transfer Keith Ford and junior James White. As of now, Sumlin hasn't picked a top guy, and likely won't until mid-way through the season. That's how RB works in the SEC now. You need two to survive.
Keith Ford didn't get the ball much last season, but when he did he was a 5.5 per carry guy with 6 TDs. The yardage overall won't impress you since he had fewer than 80 carries on the year, but he did manage to bust out a 56 yarder against Oklahoma State. James White won't really impress you with his numbers either as he only amassed 196 yards in 2015. If I'm leaning a direction I would think that Ford would get the nod, but we'll see who has a better practice in the fall before A&M starts with UCLA.
Wide Receivers had a field day last year in Sumlin's offense because he loves to throw the ball. Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones all had stellar years in 2015. Kirk and Reynolds were both top 10 in the SEC while Seals-Jones was 21st in receiving. Guess how many are returning? If you said ALL OF THEM you win a cookie. That's right, Trevor Knight is walking into a ready made scenario with some of the best receivers in the SEC. By all rights, if the offensive line can block a lick for him, they should have a vaunted passing attack in 2016.
But how is that offensive line? The answer in 2015 was pretty awful. Awful enough to get their line coach fired. But there's a new sheriff in town and 3 starters have moved on to graduation or the NFL. This is one of those rare scenarios when turnover is good, because the product on the field last year was so bad. The only downside to this turnover is that they are replacing their center, and you know how I feel about new centers in the SEC. That can be a recipe for disaster real quick if they start messing up the assignments under pressure.
On defense, A&M was stronger than I'd seen in a long time last season, but they really lacked some solid guys in the linebacker slots to take the pressure off the secondary. I was especially impressed with the defensive line players like Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. In fact Myles Garrett was one of the few players in college football to have more than 12 sacks on a season, and I think he was the only guy to do that AND force 5 fumbles. That's insane. He's a beast and he's back. So is most of the defense, and they will be coached by again by John Chavis, known for his great defenses at LSU and suddenly making the A&M defense relevant in 2015. I expect good things out of that defense again this year.
All this being said, A&M still plays in the ridiculous field of talent that is the SEC West. And that's no easy gauntlet for anybody, especially a team breaking in a new offensive line. While I think the team will be dramatically improved, I'm not sure it shows up in a championship this season like they may be hoping.
TEXAS A&M PREDICTION: 9-3
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