We're down to the final three teams in my preview series, and today is the only team in the nation to best Alabama last year, the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss shocked the world early on in the season with their win over the Tide, cementing their slot as the SEC West champ if they could just avoid 2 losses. But in the end, they did lose three really awful games to Florida, Memphis of all people, and then the dagger heartbreaker that cost them the SEC title, an OT loss to Arkansas late.
Chad Kelly was the best QB in the SEC last year, and he returns for his final year to hopefully lead Ole Miss to their first SEC title in forever. Chad was a 65% passer last year with over 4000 yards and 31 TDs to 13 picks. The picks were way too high, but whatever he's a gunslinger in that offense. From the tape I watched of Kelly, the things that jumped out to me was that he makes solid reads, he can scramble with his eyes down the field, and he's got a cannon for an arm that can put it to any part of the field. If he has a great season this year, Kelly will cement himself as a top 10 NFL QB pick in my mind going into next year's draft.
Here's the bad news. Laquon Treadwell, one of the best WRs last year in the SEC if not THE best WR isn't walking through that door. He's sitting pretty in the NFL playing for the Vikings. That means his over 1100 receiving yards and 11 receiver TDs have to go somebody else. Will that be secondary WR Cody Core who had 600+ yards last year? Nope, he's been drafted by the Bengals. Will it be Quincy Adeboyejo, who had 600+ yards and 7 TDs last year? My guess is yes, Quincy will join Damore'ea Stringfellow as the top two receivers on the team, and the hardest to spell full name tandem in the SEC. But again, nobody can fully replace Treadwell here. The fans should expect some falloff from his prolific totals.
Did Ole Miss even use a RB last year? I can barely remember them running it much at all. Turns out Chad Kelly ran for 500 yards (I wouldn't have guessed anywhere close to that) and also 10 rushing TDs. How the hell did this guy score 41 combined TDs and lose the Heisman? Oh that's right, if you lose games, you don't count. I hate that trophy and its absurd voters. But that's a side note, Ole Miss actually does have some running backs, although they are mostly new. Akeem Judd will have a shot at the primary carry load as he got 77 carries and 421 yards last year. If you're yawning, you should be because that's not much. Also, there's young spring star Eric Swinney that's been really getting the hype train going after an injury last season, but we honestly don't know if he can weather an SEC storm. I'd expect to see both and let the hot hand win, but let's get real about something. This is Chad Kelly's offense. If Ole Miss is running the ball much it's because they are up 25 points.
Ole Miss's offensive line could be a boon or a disaster. I say that because they were average last year even with good players like Laramie Tunsil getting suspended for half the year. But all five bowl starters have departed that line, which opens a door for them to either get better or fail miserably. According to coach Hugh Freeze, offensive line is one of his biggest concerns. That's not good in the SEC. Javon Patterson and Jordan Simms will likely get shots again at the guard positions, while Robert Conyers returns off injury likely at the center. That's good because Conyers is familiar with making the calls. The real issue will be the tackles, one of which will replace the star Tunsil. And if you know anything about high level passing attacks like Ole Miss, the tackles are the most important linemen out there keeping the defensive ends off the QB in pass protection. I'd be concerned if I was Freeze too.
On defense, Robert Nkemdiche is gone which means he won't be causing the same level of havoc Ole Miss fans saw in 2015 off the line. That means junior Marquis Haynes will have to step his game this and take over or Nkemdiche in terms of getting to the QB. DeMarquis Gates returns at LB and he will have to be a star tackler in this defense to makes up for the loss of Nkemdiche as well. However, Ole Miss was terrible against the pass last year ranking 105th in the nation, which means that they are losing a great pass rusher, and putting more pressure on a secondary that didn't perform well. I would expect those secondary players to improve this year, but they will have to do it quickly as Ole Miss faces FSU right off the bat.
Overall, the biggest problem for Ole Miss is that they lost their best WR, their best pass rusher and defensive lineman, and most of their offensive line. The fact they return their QB is good, but the QB isn't the entire team, and there's plenty of questions here not only at the skill positions but also about Ole Miss' impending NCAA investigations. We have no idea if the NCAA will do anything, but it's another potential Sword of Damocles hanging over their head. In my mind, Ole Miss would have to overcome a lot of odds this year to be last man standing in the SEC West, even if Alabama has some struggles.
OLE MISS PREDICTION: 8-4
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