Now comes the article most of my followers wanted to see, the Georgia football preview and prediction. I warn you in advance, I'm a fan of this team, but I'm also unlikely to let that bias affect my gambling. There were times that I've bet against Georgia when the metrics called for it and I won. There were times where it called for it and I lost. But if the facts bear out that Georgia isn't going to win an average game against another opponent, I will be the first person to tell you why. Just so you don't think I'm one-sided I've taken Georgia before and won and lost as well. I'm just saying I don't bet the home team simply because I'm a fan.
That being said, welcome to one of the biggest QB CONTROVERSIES of the year with this program. In one corner you have the weighed, measured, and found wanting version of Greyson Lambert aka the Safe Senior. In the other corner you have the young, dumb, and has a big gun version of Jacob Eason aka The Freshman Phenom. Whether you are on Team Greyson or Team Eason doesn't really matter because ultimately it's Kirby Smart's decision as the new head coach of the Dawgs, but I will lay out a case for why both could be a good choice, and then what I think will actually happen.
We know what Greyson Lambert is, and for the most part the fans don't like it. Hell, even the coaches didn't like it when they benched him for the Florida game in favor of Faton Bauta. Consequently that lack of faith got coach Richt fired. He was afraid to put the game in the hands of Lambert, which I think was a mistake. Why? Because Lambert was coming off bad games against Missouri (one of the best defenses in the league), a loss against Alabama (where he admittedly was awful), and a loss to Tennessee (where Lambert was actually the hero in that game but a dropped pass in the end zone made him the goat). But that shouldn't have made Richt suddenly gamble in the deciding game of his career.
Now some of you are saying WHAT? LAMBERT HAD A TERRIBLE TENNESEEE GAME! RABBLE RABBLE! You're wrong. Sorry, but you are. The defense had a terrible Tennessee game. Lambert pulled that game out of the fire when Georgia lost Chubb early, and he had 2 TDs passing to go with 279 yards. Was him completion rate good? No, it was an awful 47%. Still, Georgia had 31 points in that game, and they lost. The defense hung him out to dry, and our WRs hung him out even worse with dropped passes. The case for Lambert is he's unlikely to turn it over, he is likely to perform well enough against teams like UNC and Nicholls State, and he can get you 200 yards passing if need be. He's the safe choice while you let Chubb do his thing.
Eason on the other hand will be raw. Eason will throw interceptions that make the fans wonder what the hell he was thinking. But Eason can win you games almost by himself. Eason has an arm and accuracy that can shred a defense that's checking up to the line to stop Nick Chubb. And if Eason can back that defense off to the 15 yard line marker because they are afraid of getting beat over the top? Nick Chubb will be facing a 7 man box or less and he'll eat that alive. It'll be glorious if it's all going right. The balanced attack of hit them in the mouth, and then take the top off the defense is the vintage move of an Alabama team that's won several championships. Just look at a guy like WR Calvin Ridley's highlight reel over in Tuscaloosa. They would smash you with Derrick Henry and then burn you with Ridley. That's the offense Kirby Smart wants to see at UGA.
So what do I think will happen? I think Kirby would be a fool not to start Lambert. You need the settled QB who isn't going to get spooked by the big crowd and bright lights of the Georgia Dome opener. You need a guy who isn't going to make a mistake and then try to throw his way out of it by making another mistake. Eason likely takes over against Nicholls State, and then Kirby decides how much of a dual threat he wants to take against Ole Miss. My guess is we don't have a set starter until after Tennessee. I think Kirby plays both guys until October based on how much running game he wants to include in the gameplan. That of course goes by the wayside if Eason lights it up immediately and takes over the job, but I don't see that happening. The SEC is a harsh mistress for young boys. She wears leather and smokes cigarettes in front of your parents.
Luckily, either QB will have an amazing set of weapons to hand off to this season. Nick Chubb will be ready to go for game one against UNC. Sony Michel likely won't be ready until at least Ole Miss or Tennessee at the earliest. Maybe longer if there are any set backs. Oh, and then there's new kid Elijah Holyfield, son of Evander Holyfield, who is ready to run the rock if necessary. But I will say this about Chubb, if he's good to go at full speed the only way the rest of the guys get the ball is when he's too tired from making 10 yard runs and you need a change of pace. The dude is a beast. Before Chubb was injured he was averaging 8.1 yards a carry. You read that right. That's insane to a level I haven't seen in college football in a long time. His long was 83 yards for a TD. And he's trying to come back this year off a knee injury where he's healing in almost 9 months. Dude is a freak, in a good way.
Sony Michel is no slouch either. 1161 yards with a paltry 5.3 yards a carry compared to Chubb. And the funny part is that on half the other SEC teams Michel would be the flat out #1. At Georgia he's not fully respected by the fans because he's dwarfed by Chubb. But if Michel is good to go as well, it's a 1-2 punch that will give teams tons of troubled, followed by perhaps an uppercut by Holyfield. That's a boxing joke, kids.
But what about the receivers? That was a huge problem last year outside of Malcolm Mitchell, and he's graduated to the NFL. Terry Godwin is still around and will likely play a big part in the passing game, but he'll have plenty of competition for field time. Tall receivers like Riley Ridley, Michael Chigbu, Jayson Stanley, and Javon Wims will all want to get out there and grab passes from Lambert or Eason. That being said, everyone except Wims is a sophomore or younger, and Javon Wims is a junior transfer. The wide receivers are extremely young, and I'm not sure how a young QB is going to do with a bunch of young receivers. Maybe it all works out well, but that lack of experience can sometimes cause massive problems when guys make mistakes.
The offensive line will now be coached by former Arkansas O-line coach Sam Pittman, and while he's been recruiting to get a bigger, faster, badder line we're still a couple of years away from that coming to fruition with the recruits. Last year, Georgia's offensive line was something of a disappointment. They were manhandled by bigger, tougher defensive teams like Alabama, Missouri, and Florida. Experienced transfer from Rhode Island, Tyler Catalina has come to Georgia to fill in along with returning starters Greg Pyke and Brandon Kublanow. They'll have to replace both tackles John Theus and Kolton Houston. Honestly though, I don't think the loss of Theus or Houston will be a big deal. Pyke and Catalina will likely move to tackle, and Kublanow will stay as the senior center. The question will be which of the junior guards move into positions, or if the young freshman recruits beat them out for starting time. Sam Pittman will not play favorites to seniority out there, I can assure you.
How about defense. I'll be honest with you, this is the part of the game that scares the crap out of me. The Georgia defense was great on paper last year. 8th overall in CFB in points against, #1 in the nation in passing defense, and #7 in the nation in total defense. Honestly, they sound like World Beaters when you list off those stats. And yet, fans that watched the games know different. You know why Georgia was top ten in those stats? Because they played in the SEC East, 3 cupcake teams, and GA Tech. None of those teams can pass their way out of a paper bag. Louisiana Monroe had the 2nd best passing stats against Georgia, behind Alabama. Where did Georgia get nailed? They were 42nd in the nation in run defense. That's a huge problem since most good SEC teams right now are run first.
The problem (or solution depending on how you look at it) is that Georgia loses almost all of it's defensive line and linebacker talent from 2015. It keeps basically the entire secondary, which is good because they did a great job in pass protection last season for the most part (don't look at the Alabama or Tennessee tapes). Kirby Smart has his work cut out for him defensively trying to figure out how to apply a new pass rush and run stopper defense against some of the toughest teams in the SEC. Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida will all pose massive run/pass threats to this defense, and if they lack balance it will be a huge problem trying to get into a shootout. After all, Georgia would be happy to slow the game down on offense with the running backs, burn clock, and minimize the time the defense is on the field. If younger units on defense are forced into long drives, it usually ends in disaster.
Also, Georgia will have to fight what I call the RANKED TEAM UH-OHS. What do I mean by that? Well, if you're Georgia fan you know exactly what that means, but if not I'll explain. Georgia defenses had the bad habit of completely wetting themselves in big games against ranked opponents. If you look at the 2015 stats, Georgia gave up 16.9 points a game in all games. Versus ranked teams they gave up 34.3 points. Sounds a little different doesn't it? Suddenly that world beater defense looks toothless. That big of a difference is simply mentality and toughness. Bar none. Even skilled players shouldn't have a split that big from ranked to unranked opponents. And that's why Kirby Smart is the new head coach of this team. He's here to change that mentality and make sure the players they recruited play like the stars they were given when they got off the bus.
But let's get real about the schedule is this year. There's 4 ranked teams on the schedule right now, and even if the Dawgs go 2-2 in those 4 games (which would be BIG) they would still have to rely on an East tiebreaker if it's the wrong set of teams they lose to. Also, they would have to run the table against opponents like South Carolina on the road which has been historically a disaster, Auburn at home which is always weird, plus Kentucky, Missouri, and Georgia Tech. It's tough when you don't even know which QB you're going to play, or who is going to anchor any of the up front defensive positions. I think it's a good showing for Kirby, but I don't think we're looking at a team that's going to win the East this season. However, I think it sets up well to win it all in 2017-18. I call this the Atlanta Braves plan.
GEORGIA PREDICTION: 9-3
No comments:
Post a Comment