Pig Sooie to all my Hogs fans out there, it's your turn on my 2016 preview list. One of the things I've always respected about the Arkansas program is that despite your mascot being porcine, your offensive and defensive lines usually pack a lot of beef up front.
I think Arkansas had a sometimes good, but overall underwhelming season for fans based on projections. Arkansas went 8-5 finishing outside the top 25 rankings, even though they were projected as a #18 team in the 2015 preseason lists. There were three major things that went wrong for Arkansas last year.
1 - They lost games early in the year to Toledo, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M because they couldn't figure out their offense.
2 - When they did figure out their offense, they lost complete control of their defense and lost a game to Mississippi State 51-50.
3 - Their kicking game was AWFUL. Absolutely awful. Their FG kicker last year only made 60% of his kicks, which totally made the coaches lose confidence in the kicking game.
The good news? Once the Arkansas offense got rolling it was amazing. QB Brandon Allen had 3500+ yards, 30 TDs, and only 8 picks. If those sound like NFL numbers, they were because Allen went to the NFL to play for the Jaguars. Arkansas also had running back Alex Collins amass 1500+ yards on the ground, 5.8 yards a carry, and 20 TDs. Unfortunately he's also gone to the NFL to play for the Seahawks in 2016. So with that loss of talent, will anybody be able to step in for Arkansas and lead this offense in an even better direction?
Arkansas was the 2nd best scoring offense in the SEC last year. There's only one spot left to conquer, and to do that, they'll have to rely on another Allen to lead the way. That's right, Austin Allen is slated to take over as the starting QB, and he just happens to be the younger brother of the exiting starter Brandon Allen from last year. Will the new Allen be as good if not better than the elder Allen? Honestly, nobody knows because Austin Allen has had less than 20 attempts in his college career so far. But if he's 80% of what his brother was, he'll be better than most Arkansas QBs in a decade or more.
At running back, the questions loom a little larger. Due to the nature of the Arkansas offensive lines, being a running back at that school comes with the assumption that you will have some good years. In fact, I think fans get tired of hearing how big the line is on TV, and just want to hear about something else. I would expect that Senior Kody Walker will get the lion's share of the carries this year, as he was a change of pace guy behind Collins in 2015, amassing almost 400 yards in 6 TDs. But there was also now Sophomore Rawleigh Williams who got almost 4.5 a carry on 50-something carries last year as well. It could be a seniority situation or a hot-hand situation, but I expect it to be tougher sledding this year because...
The Razorbacks lost 3 starters on the offensive line to NFL or graduation, and their O-Line coach Sam Pittman to the Georgia Bulldogs staff. That means returning starters RT Dan Skipper, and RG Frank Ragnow will have to anchor the unit while Ragnow moves to Center. That's an issue for a lot of reasons. First, new center means new calls, new snaps, and new guys learning the positions. Anytime you change a center, that raises warning flags for me. Second, it means both guards will be new, and that's not a huge problem for a passing team, but for a running team that makes hay up the middle any change there can be a huge issue. And I expect Arkansas to rely mostly on their running attack as they break in a new QB.
In the WR department Drew Morgan, Hunter Henry, and Dominque Reed were part of a 3-headed monster that totaled 2100 receiving yards and 19 TDs between themselves. The only one that's gone is Hunter Henry was he went to the NFL to play for the Charges. Morgan and Reed will be seniors, and that should work well for the new QB as he'll have prime weapons on the outside as targets is the game gets tough up the middle.
Defensively Arkansas was a disaster last year. It cost them at least 3 games and should have cost them a couple more that to OT with huge scores. Arkansas was every bit as bad as South Carolina last year, but their offense just bailed them out on the scoreboard in the second half of the season. The pass rush has to get better in 2016 or Arkansas will have the exact same issues. And honestly, not much is changing on that defense as they return 8 of the 11 starters. So if you're expecting a better team, it's going to have to come through coaching rather than turnover. Honestly, I don't expect this year to be a step forward for Arkansas as they work through their defensive issues, and they have massive turnover on the offense. Add in a tough road schedule, and I think they barely get bowl eligible.
ARKANSAS PREDICTION: 6-6
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