Here's the favorite for the SEC East, the Volunteers of Tennessee. Nobody else in the East is returning their Quarterback and Running-back tandem. Nobody else in the SEC East is ranked in the top 10. Nobody else is really being given any consideration to win the SEC East as a favorite except Tennessee. They have gone from the hunters to the hunted in the East, and it's time to see if they have what it takes to complete their mission. After all, brick by brick stops this year. The bricks are in place, now we see if the wall can stand up against an onslaught of attacks.
Joshua "Space" Dobbs returns as the senior leader of the Tennessee offense at QB, meaning Tennessee is the only team in the East not facing a QB CONTROVERSY at all. Dobbs is the guy, no matter what this year. And if you look at Dobbs you'll notice a couple of things. First, he's pretty careful with the football as a rule. In his entire 3-year career at Tennessee he's only thrown 17 interceptions in 642 attempts, which is a pick about every 38 tosses. That's good, but not outstanding because Dobbs only threw 26 TDs to go along with those interception numbers. But Dobbs can also run so you can't discount his 20 TDs on the ground, and his over 1300 yards rushing in his career.
Dobbs is very much a dual-threat guy, but my issue with his play is that the arm part of his threat is mostly average. Look at Dobbs numbers and you see a guy with 4000+ passing yards over 3 seasons. That's fine and dandy in today's college football. But then you dig deeper and you see a guy with less than 7.0 yards per attempt last season. That would be around 70th amongst passing teams in CFB. Then you watch the game film, and you see a guy who was mostly making passes within his own 10 yard box, while taking off running before he got to his second reads.
The question for Dobbs in my mind is can he be more effective going from read to read, and can he beat people in the intermediate passing game? Because almost any QB can go from read one to a checkdown. That's easy and Dobbs did that a lot. The question is can you go from read one to read two, and then to a checkdown, and then to a run, and do it all in less than 4 seconds? The run for most QBs who want to stay upright should be 4th on the list. With Dobbs ability it's likely 2nd or 3rd, which means that other defenses will key on it. And if they key on it and have the power to stop his aspect of the running game with a spy (think teams like Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama) then Dobbs is in for a long day.
But he won't be out there on his own in the running game, he'll have returning starting RB Jalen Hurd who rushed for 1288 yards last year with 12 TDs. The numbers look good on paper, and Hurd is a solid RB who will get very little consideration due to the glut of outstanding RBs in the SEC. The issue I have with Hurd and I'll continue to have with him if he doesn't improve is that his yards per carry (4.7) isn't that great compared to some of the other premiere backs in the SEC. He needs a lot of touches to really get going as he wears defenses down. Also, he's a bit of a stat-stuffer in the yards department. When Hurd faced the tougher SEC teams (Georgia, Florida, Alabama) his yards per carry dropped off to 4.1, and he only had 274 yards in those 3 games. Consequently Tennessee lost two of them. Also, I don't think Tennessee uses Hurd enough out of the backfield as a receiving option. He had 22 catches in the enter 2015 season, and I would expect more targets to keep defenses confused on little RB screens.
The other real threat that I think should get more touches in the Tennessee offense is RB Alvin Kamara, who comes off a season where he had almost 700 yards and 6.5 yards a carry with 7 TDs. I know that Hurd is the workhorse, but Kamara is the home run hitter of the RB group. In two different games he busted 50+ runs, even though he got most of his work against inferior opponents. Against Georgia, Florida, and Alabama, Kamara only got 17 carries combined for 45 yards. I get that you want to try different things and put the effort on Hurd, but in general they were relying way to much on Dobbs in those efforts and not enough on their running backs. Part of that is because the defense put them in holes, and part of it is simply because I don't think Tennessee trusted Kamara as much in big games. Maybe that will change this season.
WRs will be a problem, and likely the only real problem for the Vols on offense. Von Pearson? Gone. Marquez North? Gone. That means it's up to Josh Malone, Josh Smith, and TE Ethan Wolf to possibly lead the receiver core in 2016. And will there be a 3rd WR out there? Most likely yes, and most likely it will be one of the young freshman who will be pressed into service because Jauan Jennings is dealing with a knee injury from April. So you might see guys named Preston Williams, Tyler Byrd, or Marquez Callaway. And honestly, there's no reason to believe that those guys can't do the job, because Dobbs does NOT target just one receiver. It's very much a system play on who gets the ball.
Tennessee's offensive line play should be excellent as they return 4 of their main starters, including their center Coleman Thomas, along with some great backups that will help them maneuver in fresh pieces as needed after long drives. That's good news for Dobbs since he likes to run, and even better news for Hurd as he should post even more yardage in a down defensive year in the East outside of Florida.
Speaking of defense, Tennessee's unit last year was also excellent, holding teams to 20 points per game, and finishing 17th ranked in the nation. The Vols will be bringing in a new DC this year in Bob Shoop out of Penn State, which means there could be a shakeup in the system most Vol fans are used to. I would expect a defense that looks a little more blitz happy on first down, trying to force teams into bad situations early according to most reports. I would also expect that players like Cam Sutton and Derek Barnett would love the new style, as it would give them opportunities to be more aggressive inside the scheme.
Overall, there's a reason that Tennessee is ranked highest in the East. They return a solid if not dynamic dual-threat QB, a dependable RB, and potentially, explosive RB, some decent receivers, almost the entire offensive line, and an attacking defense. What's not to like? If you ask Vol fans, it should be the defining season of Head Coach Butch Jones' career. If you ask me, I think they'll be very good as well. Because let's remember, the SEC East has kinda sucked for a long time now.
But good enough to beat a very talented Florida or Georgia team AND Alabama team in the same season? I'm not so sure. And unfortunately if they drop games to Florida and Alabama they will have to hope Florida loses 3 games to avoid the tiebreaker. But outside of those games, and on the road at Georgia, and let's not forget A&M in their make or break year, who Tennessee faces on the road. the rest of the schedule sets up really easily for the Vols to run the table. I'd say 50/50 they lose to either Georgia or Florida, A&M would be a tough tough win, and I don't think they have the horses to beat Alabama yet.
TENNESSEE PREDICTION: 9-3
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