Florida won the SEC East by default last year. I have absolutely no love for the Gators, but that doesn't stop me from respecting the product they put on the field. For years under Will Muschamp, the Gators were a joke. Enter new head coach Jim McElwain, and suddenly the Gators win 10 games and the SEC East title. Did they stumble down the stretch? Yes, and losing your first string QB to suspension will do that. When Will Grier departed the team, he took all the scoring with him. If Treon Harris was slated to start again, I'd say the Gators were doomed.
But Treon Harris won't start. Instead, Luke Del Rio will get the starting nod for Florida as the QB. Now, Will Grier was the better thrower than Del Rio supposedly, and just as supposedly Del Rio is the better decision maker. Coaches love a great decision maker, fans love a great arm. Somewhere in the middle you usually get a decent QB to run an offense. And I think we will have to see if Luke is actually an upgrade over Grier in the decision-making department if the Gators gets in long down situations that require passing. Because defenses at that point will know what's coming, and your decisions are less of a factor than fitting it in tight windows.
The Florida offense did have one big advantage beyond Will Grier saving the season before his suspension, and that was Kelvin Taylor in the running game. Taylor had 1000+ yards with 4.0 per carry, which was good only because he was carrying the ball so often. A guy in college who has 4.0 per carry isn't going to finish very high on the top RB lists, but when you do it 250 times I start to notice. Also, Taylor had 13 TDs which is very impressive. Did they come in big games? 2 against Georgia, 2 against Tennessee, and 2 against Missouri. That's basically the Florida competition for the East so I'd say yes.
HOWEVER, Kelvin Taylor went to the NFL. Uh oh. That means essentially five guys are now competing for the top job, Jordan Scarlett, Jordan Cronkrite, Mark Herndon, Mark Thompson, and young recruit Lamical Perine. While fans have been buzzing around Perine, he would have to surpas the other guys as the youngest member of the team to grab carries. However, Jim McIlwain has shown he really doesn't place much credence in seniority over talent. So, perhaps the young kid can usurp the throne, which shouldn't be hard because both Jordans don't really impress me, Herndon had almost no snaps last year, and Thompson is a JUCO transfer. The job is wide open in my mind.
Wide Receivers last season were the Antonio Callaway and Demarcus Robinson show, along with TE Jake McGee. Callaway is still around, and that's a good thing because Robinson and McGee both went to the NFL. That means WR Brandon Powell and TE DeAndre Goolsby need to step up their games in expectation of more targets along with Callaway. I think having experienced receivers will really help the transition for QB Del Rio, because he's going to need guys you can use as a safety valve when the blitz packages get hot. That means your receivers need to recognize when to cut off routes early to avoid getting the QB killed. An experienced guy can do that, a green receiver just keeps running.
Florida's offensive line was wretched last year. I mean awful. They allowed 45 sacks which was absolutely 128th dead last in CFB. The worst stat amongst any team from Alabama to New Mexico State. That seems impossible for a team that won the East in 2015, but it happened. Remember default? Yeah they won by default. Will the line be better in 2016? It's impossible to get worse in sacks at least. And most of them are coming back, so the only thing you can really say is, "Hey they are more experienced!" That's not great if you lack skills to get the job done. I don't expect this to be a strength for the Gators.
The defense will be a strength. Good night, the defense from last year was amazing. 40 sacks which had them 5th in the nation. 11th in the nation in points against, 25th against the run, and 13th against the pass. Florida kept themselves in games long after the offense woes should have put them out of it. But the Gators lost 5 defensive starters, and they will need to find replacements from the front line to the secondary. My guess is that LB Jarrad Davis will be the guy to watch this season, as I think he'll become a bigtime leader on this defense. He needs to be instrumental in both the passing and rushing defenses, and if he doesn't finish the year with the most tackles on the team, I'll be surprised.
The Gators need to fill some holes, but I think the bones of this team are still in place to be successful in the East. In the West they'd be another punching bag while they figure out the offense, but in the East they can survive a decided easy early schedule while they move their chess pieces around. Florida's first three games are UMASS, Kentucky, and North Texas. It doesn't get easier than that in the SEC. Then, they have a tough game at Tenneseee before an easy Vandy win, then LSU and Mizzou at home before the neutral match against Georgia. Every time Florida has a hard opponent, they have at least one week against a weak team to prepare. Things are there again for the taking with their top tier defense, and if the QB lives up to billing Florida will be a team to contend with in the East again.
FLORIDA PREDICTION: 9-3
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