We've gone through 7 of the worst teams in 2015 over the last few days, and now we're over the hump. It's time to start talking about SEC teams that may factor into the 2016 SEC championship. We open with powerhouse running team, powerhouse defensive team, and somehow completely absentee QB team: LSU!
There is no QB controversy yet in LSU, the guy that gets the nod this year is Brandon Harris. You may remember Harris from last season as he was the guy responsible for LSU getting crushed in their 3 toughest games against Bama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Harris had 4 picks in those 3 games, and only 3 TD passes. His completion percentage against Alabama was around 31%. He actually flung it for over 300 yards against Ole Miss, but the defense absolutely let him down in that game, so I wouldn't hold him as accountable in that one if it weren't for the 2 interceptions.
Outside of those 3 losses, Harris was asked to do almost nothing in about half of their wins. In 4 of the 9 games that LSU won, Harris had less than 100 yards passing. That seems impossible in today's pass happy offensive schemes around the league, but the SEC has an always will be a run-first league whether it be by the QB option or by straight hand in the dirt RB pounding. Harris had his best games against Western Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. Those 3 games encompassed 8 of his 13 TDs on the year. So he was doing some stat-padding against the SEC East and a crap opponent on the schedule. One of the most damning things to me about Harris was that his completion rate inside the opponents 40 yard line was barely above 40% on the year. That means in your top scoring zones, Harris was really suffering as the defenses tightened up.
Now, if LSU lacked a running game, I'd say that too much would be put on Harris and a college QB can't expect to have great completion numbers if teams are playing in coverages where they are expecting pass and don't respect the run. But if you've heard anything about a guy named Leonard Fournette, one of the most touted RBs in the SEC, you know that LSU has a phenomenal running game. Harris should have been MUCH better than he was, because teams were having to constantly stack the box to stop Fournette. Meaning they would have to put their corners and safeties on single-man coverages, which a half-decent QB would have picked apart. This tells me that Harris isn't even half-decent, and I don't expect him to suddenly learn in Year 3 of his starting career. After all, give me two years to look at you, and a full year of starting, and I can tell what you are as a QB.
Back to Fournette though, if you haven't heard about this kid you likely don't have cable or the internet. Which means you're not reading this blog. So I assume when I say his name, you see that highlight video of him shedding off Auburn tacklers like a swimmer shakes off wet towels. Except a team of wet towels would probably have a better defense than Auburn last year. Anyway, Fournette ran for about 50 yards shy of 2000 yards, 6.5 yard a carry, and 22 TDs. That still wasn't good enough for a Heisman because his team lost 3 games, and he had only 31 rushing yards against Alabama, and 91 against Arkansas. You can't do that in losses and expect to win the #1 player trophy in college ball.
That doesn't mean Fournette will fall off this year. If anything I hope he's listening to the criticism that he was a stat-padder against crap teams, and wilted the second he faced a defense with any teeth. And by the way, that's a completely fair criticism of Fournette. He looked like a world beater at the beginning of the season, but in the last 4 games of the regular season he only had 3 TDs while his yards per carry were cut down by at least a third if not more in certain games.
Part of Fournette's success is that LSU consistently has one of the best offensive lines in the country. This year they lose both of their tackles, but return all of the interior. That means one or two of the guards may switch over to tackle (that happens a lot) and some younger guys will fill in. Does that mean that Fournette will have less success behind this line? Probably not at all, if anything the interior of the line is one of the most important parts of any run blocking scheme. It's the tackles that are more important in the passing game since they are out on an island trying to block outside rushers from going inside. I expect LSU's line to make the transition easily because they are keeping their best asset, Center Ethan Pocic.
In the receiver department, LSU's top man last year was Malachi Dupre. Love the name by the way, it just sounds like a WR name. He'll return to the team as a junior with what I hope is even more targets by Brandon Harris. After all a good running team needs a deep threat that can take the cover off a defense, and Dupre has to be that guy. Malachi had longs in games of 55, 52, and 42, which is exactly what LSU needs as a change of pace from Fournette. In addition to Dupre will be receiver Travin Dural who ended up as the #2 receiver on the team by around 150 yards. Again, this passing game isn't going to be prolific. A leading receiver at LSU might get to 700 yards if he's lucky. The key is going to be the deep threat, because as I've said, defenses are going to have to cheat up on the field to protect against Fournette gashing them to death 8 yards at a time.
LSU's defense should be monster level good. They've changed defensive coordinators to a game named Dave Aranda out of Wisconsin, which is a hire praised around the SEC. I don't know the specifics of why Kevin Steele left as DC at LSU for DC at Auburn, and seemingly nobody else has much information on why he left either. Supposedly it was over retirement payments that the state of Alabama offers but Louisiana didn't. I think it's likely over the fact Les Miles was all but fired last year until the alumni stepped in and saved his job. Nobody wants to be an officer on a sinking ship. But hell, he's going to Auburn, which I can assure you is no safer a job with Malzahn at the helm sitting on a veritable hot-plate if he doesn't win this year.
Either way Aranda will inherit a defense that finished 41st in the nation in points against, 17th against the run, and 65th against the pass. As you can see, Aranda will have to come up with a better scheme for pass defense, because there's zero reason an LSU defense should finish that low. I think I know why there's such a dramatic split however. Every day the LSU defense sees and tries to contain Fournette in the running game, but they see crappy Brandon Harris in the passing game. Perhaps stronger practice partners made the defense stronger and vice versa. Perhaps not, and it's up to schemes. Aranda will have to find a way to fix that issue if LSU wants to win the SEC West this season, and I think LSU has a great shot. It depends on which games they lose and when, because I don't think they go undefeated.
LSU PREDICTION: 10-2
No comments:
Post a Comment