Yesterday, I covered the worst team in the East. Today I cover the worst team in the West from last season, the Auburn Tigers. The funniest part to me about last season was how much hype surrounded the Auburn program in the preseason. If you want a good laugh, go and look at the preseason rankings and articles written about the Auburn program before 2015 started. Auburn was #6 in the nation in rankings, and Jeremy Johnson was projected as a front-runner for the Heisman trophy.
Here's the punchline: Auburn finished 7-6 and 2-6 in the conference. Oh and Jeremy Johnson was a front-runner in bagging groceries at Kroger, because he got benched mid-season for Sean White, and then benched again for the bowl game. Auburn ended up losing to LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and of course Alabama. They ended up winning against Louisville, San Jose State, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Idaho, and Jacksonville State in OT. That's right, and they should have lost to Jacksonville State, except for a shanked Jacksonville punt late in the 4th quarter that gave Auburn a short field for an easy TD to tie the game and take it to OT.
I've seen some overrated press for a team in my day, but Auburn really takes the crap-cake from 2015 in terms of how much the media bought into a bad program with a bad QB. The Gus Malzahn offense really couldn't score points, and that's what he was known for in his career. With an average of 27.5 points per game, Auburn was 74th in CFB, which should really tell you about how bad defenses have gotten over the last few years. But just as bad was the fact Auburn gave up 26 points a game on defense, which was 54th in CFB and 11th in the SEC. Behind the likes of A&M and Vanderbilt.
Now, I enjoy kicking Auburn when they are down as much as the next guy since I'm a Georgia fan, but I'm also a gambler and incredibly objective about how these teams are slated to play when my money is on the line. And it will be no different here as we look at Auburn in 2016, where I would expect this is a make or break year for everybody on their coaching staff.
The best thing Auburn had last year was Peyton Barber, the workload RB who carried over 1000 yards on 238 carries with 13 TDs. They also had Jovon Robinson who averaged over 5 yards a carry on 100+ carries as well during the season. The running game was strong with both of those guys, but Peyton Barber left for the greener pastures of the NFL, leaving the majority of carries to Jovon. But wait, Jovon Robinson got dismissed from the team before Fall camp even started. Uh-oh. That's uh...less than ideal. Who the hell is going to run the ball with the two best guys off the team?
The running duties will fall by default to sophomore RB Kerryon Johnson, who had a limited amount of carries in 2015 with around 50 total for 200+ yards. But even with those limited carries Johnson found the endzone 3 times. That's good, because in Gus Malzahn's offense, running the ball is paramount. In fact, Auburn as a team had 587 rushes last year in 13 games. That averages out to about 45 carries a game. Auburn goes fast and they love to run, which means those carries have to get split between the backs and usually the QB. If you can't run, you can't play for Gus. As long as Gus still has a job.
Remember what I said in the Vandy article about "Quarterback controversy?" Get ready for a ton of those around the league, and Auburn is no different. Auburn has three options they can turn to, two of which are the same bad choices as last season: Jeremy Johnson and Sean White. The third option is a transfer named John Franklin III, and you know 9 times out of 10 a guy with a number after his name has to be a jerk. So it's not looking great in terms of choices for Auburn with the devils you know, and the devil you don't. My guess is that Jeremy Johnson will get most of the playing time, because Johnson has proven he can make plays before, while Sean White has proven he can throw more interceptions than TDs. Heck, knowing Auburn they'll be lucky if all of them stay eligible this year.
At WR, Auburn's best receiver last year was Ricardo Louis with 716 yards on 46 catches. Nobody else was even close. The next best guy was Melvin Ray with 279 yards on 20 catches. But like many pieces of bad news, the hits keep on coming for Auburn. Ricardo Louis and Melvin Ray both went on to the NFL, leaving the WR duties to a bunch of possible freshman candidates. And like I've said before, nothing makes a QB battle tougher than throwing to unproven targets. Marcus Davis, Tony Stevens, and David Smith are all among the names you may hear in the Auburn WR battle. We'll see as the season progresses if any of them pan out.
What about the offensive line though? At least that has a chance at improving right? The answer is a resounding YES. If there's anything the Auburn offense can hang their hat on (and there isn't much) it's their offensive line this year. They have two returning guards in Alex Kozan and Braden Smith, both of whom are key positions in the running game. Prior center Austin Golson is set to move over to tackle, and a senior named Xavier Dampeer (who has a vampire name) will step in at center. Overall, if Auburn can't run behind this line, they should pack up every skill player they have, fire the head coach, and start over the program.
Besides the offensive line, this Auburn program is going to rely on their defense more than ever. Gus Malzahn was recently quoted at SEC Media days saying, "I think we got a chance to have one of the best, if not the best,
defenses we've had at my time at Auburn, which I think is very
important."
Is that coachspeak or the truth? Auburn's defense certainly improved in the bowl game, holding Memphis to 10 points, but that's months of preparation against Memphis who, no disrespect, isn't on par with SEC West talent. And Auburn has to play in the West for the majority of their games. I mean Gus even said how they improved late in the year, but he must have forgotten about giving up 34 points to Idaho in his 11th game. What I can tell you is that Auburn is on their 4th defensive coordinator in 5 years, and his name is Kevin Steele. I like defense coaches with names that sound like metal. HARD AS STEELE. Somebody make shirts.
One thing Steele will have to shore up is the Auburn defensive line. Auburn was 11th in the SEC against the pass, but was tied for 3rd in the conference in interceptions. Why the disparity? Well, Auburn got almost zero pressure on the QB that's why. With only 19 sacks all season, they finished 102nd in college football in sacks. Oh and their defensive line finished 11th in the conference in run defense as well. Basically, the Tigers were terrible up front on defense which is the ultimate mortal sin in the SEC. If they can't stop the run or sack the QB in 2016? They'll finish dead last again.
Taking a look at the schedule for Auburn, they get kicked in the face right out of the gate with an opener against Clemson. I don't expect that to go well. They get a week off against Arkansas State, then follow that up with A&M and LSU back to back. It doesn't get much easier as they face the gauntlet of Western opponents, plus Georgia and Vandy out of the East. Which means I think Auburn will be lucky to get bowl eligible again, and probably suffer through another bad season that likely gets Malzahn his walking papers.
AUBURN PREDICTION: 6-6
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